arXiv subjects

Jilin Hu

Publications and source records attributed to Jilin Hu.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

arXiv2025

DUET: Dual Clustering Enhanced Multivariate Time Series Forecasting

Multivariate time series forecasting is crucial for various applications, such as financial investment, energy management, weather forecasting, and traffic optimization. However, accurate forecasting is challenging due to two main factors. First, real-world time series often show heterogeneous temporal patterns caused by distribution shifts over time. Second, correlations among channels are complex and intertwined, making it hard to model the interactions among channels precisely and flexibly. In this study, we address these challenges by proposing a general framework called DUET, which introduces dual clustering on the temporal and channel dimensions to enhance multivariate time series forecasting. First, we design a Temporal Clustering Module (TCM) that clusters time series into fine-grained distributions to handle heterogeneous temporal patterns. For different distribution clusters, we design various pattern extractors to capture their intrinsic temporal patterns, thus modeling the heterogeneity. Second, we introduce a novel Channel-Soft-Clustering strategy and design a Channel Clustering Module (CCM), which captures the relationships among channels in the frequency domain through metric learning and applies sparsification to mitigate the adverse effects of noisy channels. Finally, DUET combines TCM and CCM to incorporate both the temporal and channel dimensions. Extensive experiments on 25 real-world datasets from 10 application domains, demonstrate the state-of-the-art performance of DUET.

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arXiv2025

MM-Path: Multi-modal, Multi-granularity Path Representation Learning -- Extended Version

Developing effective path representations has become increasingly essential across various fields within intelligent transportation. Although pre-trained path representation learning models have shown improved performance, they predominantly focus on the topological structures from single modality data, i.e., road networks, overlooking the geometric and contextual features associated with path-related images, e.g., remote sensing images. Similar to human understanding, integrating information from multiple modalities can provide a more comprehensive view, enhancing both representation accuracy and generalization. However, variations in information granularity impede the semantic alignment of road network-based paths (road paths) and image-based paths (image paths), while the heterogeneity of multi-modal data poses substantial challenges for effective fusion and utilization. In this paper, we propose a novel Multi-modal, Multi-granularity Path Representation Learning Framework (MM-Path), which can learn a generic path representation by integrating modalities from both road paths and image paths. To enhance the alignment of multi-modal data, we develop a multi-granularity alignment strategy that systematically associates nodes, road sub-paths, and road paths with their corresponding image patches, ensuring the synchronization of both detailed local information and broader global contexts. To address the heterogeneity of multi-modal data effectively, we introduce a graph-based cross-modal residual fusion component designed to comprehensively fuse information across different modalities and granularities. Finally, we conduct extensive experiments on two large-scale real-world datasets under two downstream tasks, validating the effectiveness of the proposed MM-Path. The code is available at: https://github.com/decisionintelligence/MM-Path.

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arXiv2024

EasyTime: Time Series Forecasting Made Easy

Time series forecasting has important applications across diverse domains. EasyTime, the system we demonstrate, facilitates easy use of time-series forecasting methods by researchers and practitioners alike. First, EasyTime enables one-click evaluation, enabling researchers to evaluate new forecasting methods using the suite of diverse time series datasets collected in the preexisting time series forecasting benchmark (TFB). This is achieved by leveraging TFB's flexible and consistent evaluation pipeline. Second, when practitioners must perform forecasting on a new dataset, a nontrivial first step is often to find an appropriate forecasting method. EasyTime provides an Automated Ensemble module that combines the promising forecasting methods to yield superior forecasting accuracy compared to individual methods. Third, EasyTime offers a natural language Q&A module leveraging large language models. Given a question like "Which method is best for long term forecasting on time series with strong seasonality?", EasyTime converts the question into SQL queries on the database of results obtained by TFB and then returns an answer in natural language and charts. By demonstrating EasyTime, we intend to show how it is possible to simplify the use of time series forecasting and to offer better support for the development of new generations of time series forecasting methods.

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arXiv2024

MultiRC: Joint Learning for Time Series Anomaly Prediction and Detection with Multi-scale Reconstructive Contrast

Many methods have been proposed for unsupervised time series anomaly detection. Despite some progress, research on predicting future anomalies is still relatively scarce. Predicting anomalies is particularly challenging due to the diverse reaction time and the lack of labeled data. To address these challenges, we propose MultiRC to integrate reconstructive and contrastive learning for joint learning of anomaly prediction and detection, with multi-scale structure and adaptive dominant period mask to deal with the diverse reaction time. MultiRC also generates negative samples to provide essential training momentum for the anomaly prediction tasks and prevent model degradation. We evaluate seven benchmark datasets from different fields. For both anomaly prediction and detection tasks, MultiRC outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods.

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arXiv2024

TrajCogn: Leveraging LLMs for Cognizing Movement Patterns and Travel Purposes from Trajectories

Spatio-temporal trajectories are crucial in various data mining tasks. It is important to develop a versatile trajectory learning method that performs different tasks with high accuracy. This involves effectively extracting two core aspects of information--movement patterns and travel purposes--from trajectories. However, this is challenging due to limitations in model capacity and the quality and scale of trajectory datasets. Meanwhile, large language models (LLMs) have shown great success in versatility by training on large-scale, high-quality datasets. Given the similarities between trajectories and sentences, there's potential to leverage LLMs to develop an effective trajectory learning method. However, standard LLMs are not designed to handle the unique spatio-temporal features of trajectories and cannot extract movement patterns and travel purposes. To address these challenges, we propose a model called TrajCogn that effectively utilizes LLMs to model trajectories. TrajCogn leverages the strengths of LLMs to create a versatile trajectory learning approach while addressing the limitations of standard LLMs. First, TrajCogn incorporates a novel trajectory semantic embedder that enables LLMs to process spatio-temporal features and extract movement patterns and travel purposes. Second, TrajCogn introduces a new trajectory prompt that integrates these patterns and purposes into LLMs, allowing the model to adapt to various tasks. Extensive experiments on two real-world datasets and two representative tasks demonstrate that TrajCogn successfully achieves its design goals. Codes are available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/TrajCogn-5021.

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arXiv2024

TrajFM: A Vehicle Trajectory Foundation Model for Region and Task Transferability

Vehicle trajectories provide valuable movement information that supports various downstream tasks and powers real-world applications. A desirable trajectory learning model should transfer between different regions and tasks without retraining, thus improving computational efficiency and effectiveness with limited training data. However, a model's ability to transfer across regions is limited by the unique spatial features and POI arrangements of each region, which are closely linked to vehicle movement patterns and difficult to generalize. Additionally, achieving task transferability is challenging due to the differing generation schemes required for various tasks. Existing efforts towards transferability primarily involve learning embedding vectors for trajectories, which perform poorly in region transfer and still require retraining of prediction modules for task transfer. To address these challenges, we propose TrajFM, a vehicle trajectory foundation model that excels in both region and task transferability. For region transferability, we introduce STRFormer as the main learnable model within TrajFM. It integrates spatial, temporal, and POI modalities of trajectories to effectively manage variations in POI arrangements across regions and includes a learnable spatio-temporal Rotary position embedding module for handling spatial features. For task transferability, we propose a trajectory masking and recovery scheme. This scheme unifies the generation processes of various tasks into the masking and recovery of modalities and sub-trajectories, allowing TrajFM to be pre-trained once and transferred to different tasks without retraining. Experiments on two real-world vehicle trajectory datasets under various settings demonstrate the effectiveness of TrajFM. Code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/TrajFM-30E4.

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arXiv2024

Orca: Ocean Significant Wave Height Estimation with Spatio-temporally Aware Large Language Models

Significant wave height (SWH) is a vital metric in marine science, and accurate SWH estimation is crucial for various applications, e.g., marine energy development, fishery, early warning systems for potential risks, etc. Traditional SWH estimation methods that are based on numerical models and physical theories are hindered by computational inefficiencies. Recently, machine learning has emerged as an appealing alternative to improve accuracy and reduce computational time. However, due to limited observational technology and high costs, the scarcity of real-world data restricts the potential of machine learning models. To overcome these limitations, we propose an ocean SWH estimation framework, namely Orca. Specifically, Orca enhances the limited spatio-temporal reasoning abilities of classic LLMs with a novel spatiotemporal aware encoding module. By segmenting the limited buoy observational data temporally, encoding the buoys' locations spatially, and designing prompt templates, Orca capitalizes on the robust generalization ability of LLMs to estimate significant wave height effectively with limited data. Experimental results on the Gulf of Mexico demonstrate that Orca achieves state-of-the-art performance in SWH estimation.

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arXiv2023

Learning Time-aware Graph Structures for Spatially Correlated Time Series Forecasting

Spatio-temporal forecasting of future values of spatially correlated time series is important across many cyber-physical systems (CPS). Recent studies offer evidence that the use of graph neural networks to capture latent correlations between time series holds a potential for enhanced forecasting. However, most existing methods rely on pre-defined or self-learning graphs, which are either static or unintentionally dynamic, and thus cannot model the time-varying correlations that exhibit trends and periodicities caused by the regularity of the underlying processes in CPS. To tackle such limitation, we propose Time-aware Graph Structure Learning (TagSL), which extracts time-aware correlations among time series by measuring the interaction of node and time representations in high-dimensional spaces. Notably, we introduce time discrepancy learning that utilizes contrastive learning with distance-based regularization terms to constrain learned spatial correlations to a trend sequence. Additionally, we propose a periodic discriminant function to enable the capture of periodic changes from the state of nodes. Next, we present a Graph Convolution-based Gated Recurrent Unit (GCGRU) that jointly captures spatial and temporal dependencies while learning time-aware and node-specific patterns. Finally, we introduce a unified framework named Time-aware Graph Convolutional Recurrent Network (TGCRN), combining TagSL, and GCGRU in an encoder-decoder architecture for multi-step spatio-temporal forecasting. We report on experiments with TGCRN and popular existing approaches on five real-world datasets, thus providing evidence that TGCRN is capable of advancing the state-of-the-art. We also cover a detailed ablation study and visualization analysis, offering detailed insight into the effectiveness of time-aware structure learning.

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arXiv2023

Pre-training General Trajectory Embeddings with Maximum Multi-view Entropy Coding

Spatio-temporal trajectories provide valuable information about movement and travel behavior, enabling various downstream tasks that in turn power real-world applications. Learning trajectory embeddings can improve task performance but may incur high computational costs and face limited training data availability. Pre-training learns generic embeddings by means of specially constructed pretext tasks that enable learning from unlabeled data. Existing pre-training methods face (i) difficulties in learning general embeddings due to biases towards certain downstream tasks incurred by the pretext tasks, (ii) limitations in capturing both travel semantics and spatio-temporal correlations, and (iii) the complexity of long, irregularly sampled trajectories. To tackle these challenges, we propose Maximum Multi-view Trajectory Entropy Coding (MMTEC) for learning general and comprehensive trajectory embeddings. We introduce a pretext task that reduces biases in pre-trained trajectory embeddings, yielding embeddings that are useful for a wide variety of downstream tasks. We also propose an attention-based discrete encoder and a NeuralCDE-based continuous encoder that extract and represent travel behavior and continuous spatio-temporal correlations from trajectories in embeddings, respectively. Extensive experiments on two real-world datasets and three downstream tasks offer insight into the design properties of our proposal and indicate that it is capable of outperforming existing trajectory embedding methods.

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arXiv2023

LightPath: Lightweight and Scalable Path Representation Learning

Movement paths are used widely in intelligent transportation and smart city applications. To serve such applications, path representation learning aims to provide compact representations of paths that enable efficient and accurate operations when used for different downstream tasks such as path ranking and travel cost estimation. In many cases, it is attractive that the path representation learning is lightweight and scalable; in resource-limited environments and under green computing limitations, it is essential. Yet, existing path representation learning studies focus on accuracy and pay at most secondary attention to resource consumption and scalability. We propose a lightweight and scalable path representation learning framework, termed LightPath, that aims to reduce resource consumption and achieve scalability without affecting accuracy, thus enabling broader applicability. More specifically, we first propose a sparse auto-encoder that ensures that the framework achieves good scalability with respect to path length. Next, we propose a relational reasoning framework to enable faster training of more robust sparse path encoders. We also propose global-local knowledge distillation to further reduce the size and improve the performance of sparse path encoders. Finally, we report extensive experiments on two real-world datasets to offer insight into the efficiency, scalability, and effectiveness of the proposed framework.

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arXiv2023

Origin-Destination Travel Time Oracle for Map-based Services

Given an origin (O), a destination (D), and a departure time (T), an Origin-Destination (OD) travel time oracle~(ODT-Oracle) returns an estimate of the time it takes to travel from O to D when departing at T. ODT-Oracles serve important purposes in map-based services. To enable the construction of such oracles, we provide a travel-time estimation (TTE) solution that leverages historical trajectories to estimate time-varying travel times for OD pairs. The problem is complicated by the fact that multiple historical trajectories with different travel times may connect an OD pair, while trajectories may vary from one another. To solve the problem, it is crucial to remove outlier trajectories when doing travel time estimation for future queries. We propose a novel, two-stage framework called Diffusion-based Origin-destination Travel Time Estimation (DOT), that solves the problem. First, DOT employs a conditioned Pixelated Trajectories (PiT) denoiser that enables building a diffusion-based PiT inference process by learning correlations between OD pairs and historical trajectories. Specifically, given an OD pair and a departure time, we aim to infer a PiT. Next, DOT encompasses a Masked Vision Transformer~(MViT) that effectively and efficiently estimates a travel time based on the inferred PiT. We report on extensive experiments on two real-world datasets that offer evidence that DOT is capable of outperforming baseline methods in terms of accuracy, scalability, and explainability.

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arXiv2023

A Crystal-Specific Pre-Training Framework for Crystal Material Property Prediction

Crystal property prediction is a crucial aspect of developing novel materials. However, there are two technical challenges to be addressed for speeding up the investigation of crystals. First, labeling crystal properties is intrinsically difficult due to the high cost and time involved in physical simulations or lab experiments. Second, crystals adhere to a specific quantum chemical principle known as periodic invariance, which is often not captured by existing machine learning methods. To overcome these challenges, we propose the crystal-specific pre-training framework for learning crystal representations with self-supervision. The framework designs a mutex mask strategy for enhancing representation learning so as to alleviate the limited labels available for crystal property prediction. Moreover, we take into account the specific periodic invariance in crystal structures by developing a periodic invariance multi-graph module and periodic attribute learning within our framework. This framework has been tested on eight different tasks. The experimental results on these tasks show that the framework achieves promising prediction performance and is able to outperform recent strong baselines.

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arXiv2022

Weakly-supervised Temporal Path Representation Learning with Contrastive Curriculum Learning -- Extended Version

In step with the digitalization of transportation, we are witnessing a growing range of path-based smart-city applications, e.g., travel-time estimation and travel path ranking. A temporal path(TP) that includes temporal information, e.g., departure time, into the path is fundamental to enable such applications. In this setting, it is essential to learn generic temporal path representations(TPRs) that consider spatial and temporal correlations simultaneously and that can be used in different applications, i.e., downstream tasks. Existing methods fail to achieve the goal since (i) supervised methods require large amounts of task-specific labels when training and thus fail to generalize the obtained TPRs to other tasks; (ii) through unsupervised methods can learn generic representations, they disregard the temporal aspect, leading to sub-optimal results. To contend with the limitations of existing solutions, we propose a Weakly-Supervised Contrastive (WSC) learning model. We first propose a temporal path encoder that encodes both the spatial and temporal information of a temporal path into a TPR. To train the encoder, we introduce weak labels that are easy and inexpensive to obtain and are relevant to different tasks, e.g., temporal labels indicating peak vs. off-peak hours from departure times. Based on the weak labels, we construct meaningful positive and negative temporal path samples by considering both spatial and temporal information, which facilities training the encoder using contrastive learning by pulling closer to the positive samples' representations while pushing away the negative samples' representations. To better guide contrastive learning, we propose a learning strategy based on Curriculum Learning such that the learning performs from easy to hard training instances. Experiments studies verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.

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arXiv2021

BaLeNAS: Differentiable Architecture Search via the Bayesian Learning Rule

Differentiable Architecture Search (DARTS) has received massive attention in recent years, mainly because it significantly reduces the computational cost through weight sharing and continuous relaxation. However, more recent works find that existing differentiable NAS techniques struggle to outperform naive baselines, yielding deteriorative architectures as the search proceeds. Rather than directly optimizing the architecture parameters, this paper formulates the neural architecture search as a distribution learning problem through relaxing the architecture weights into Gaussian distributions. By leveraging the natural-gradient variational inference (NGVI), the architecture distribution can be easily optimized based on existing codebases without incurring more memory and computational consumption. We demonstrate how the differentiable NAS benefits from Bayesian principles, enhancing exploration and improving stability. The experimental results on NAS-Bench-201 and NAS-Bench-1shot1 benchmark datasets confirm the significant improvements the proposed framework can make. In addition, instead of simply applying the argmax on the learned parameters, we further leverage the recently-proposed training-free proxies in NAS to select the optimal architecture from a group architectures drawn from the optimized distribution, where we achieve state-of-the-art results on the NAS-Bench-201 and NAS-Bench-1shot1 benchmarks. Our best architecture in the DARTS search space also obtains competitive test errors with 2.37\%, 15.72\%, and 24.2\% on CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, and ImageNet datasets, respectively.

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arXiv2021

Evolutionary Clustering of Streaming Trajectories

The widespread deployment of smartphones and location-enabled, networked in-vehicle devices renders it increasingly feasible to collect streaming trajectory data of moving objects. The continuous clustering of such data can enable a variety of real-time services, such as identifying representative paths or common moving trends among objects in real-time. However, little attention has so far been given to the quality of clusters -- for example, it is beneficial to smooth short-term fluctuations in clusters to achieve robustness to exceptional data. We propose the notion of evolutionary clustering of streaming trajectories, abbreviated ECO, that enhances streaming-trajectory clustering quality by means of temporal smoothing that prevents abrupt changes in clusters across successive timestamps. Employing the notions of snapshot and historical trajectory costs, we formalize ECO and then formulate ECO as an optimization problem and prove that ECO can be performed approximately in linear time, thus eliminating the iterative processes employed in previous studies. Further, we propose a minimal-group structure and a seed point shifting strategy to facilitate temporal smoothing. Finally, we present all algorithms underlying ECO along with a set of optimization techniques. Extensive experiments with two real-life datasets offer insight into ECO and show that it outperforms state-of-the-art solutions in terms of both clustering quality and efficiency.

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arXiv2021

Unsupervised Path Representation Learning with Curriculum Negative Sampling

Path representations are critical in a variety of transportation applications, such as estimating path ranking in path recommendation systems and estimating path travel time in navigation systems. Existing studies often learn task-specific path representations in a supervised manner, which require a large amount of labeled training data and generalize poorly to other tasks. We propose an unsupervised learning framework Path InfoMax (PIM) to learn generic path representations that work for different downstream tasks. We first propose a curriculum negative sampling method, for each input path, to generate a small amount of negative paths, by following the principles of curriculum learning. Next, \emph{PIM} employs mutual information maximization to learn path representations from both a global and a local view. In the global view, PIM distinguishes the representations of the input paths from those of the negative paths. In the local view, \emph{PIM} distinguishes the input path representations from the representations of the nodes that appear only in the negative paths. This enables the learned path representations to encode both global and local information at different scales. Extensive experiments on two downstream tasks, ranking score estimation and travel time estimation, using two road network datasets suggest that PIM significantly outperforms other unsupervised methods and is also able to be used as a pre-training method to enhance supervised path representation learning.

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arXiv2021

SOUP: Spatial-Temporal Demand Forecasting and Competitive Supply

We consider a setting with an evolving set of requests for transportation from an origin to a destination before a deadline and a set of agents capable of servicing the requests. In this setting, an assignment authority is to assign agents to requests such that the average idle time of the agents is minimized. An example is the scheduling of taxis (agents) to meet incoming requests for trips while ensuring that the taxis are empty as little as possible. In this paper, we study the problem of spatial-temporal demand forecasting and competitive supply (SOUP). We address the problem in two steps. First, we build a granular model that provides spatial-temporal predictions of requests. Specifically, we propose a Spatial-Temporal Graph Convolutional Sequential Learning (ST-GCSL) algorithm that predicts the service requests across locations and time slots. Second, we provide means of routing agents to request origins while avoiding competition among the agents. In particular, we develop a demand-aware route planning (DROP) algorithm that considers both the spatial-temporal predictions and the supplydemand state. We report on extensive experiments with realworld and synthetic data that offer insight into the performance of the solution and show that it is capable of outperforming the state-of-the-art proposals.

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arXiv2020

Infinitely Wide Graph Convolutional Networks: Semi-supervised Learning via Gaussian Processes

Graph convolutional neural networks~(GCNs) have recently demonstrated promising results on graph-based semi-supervised classification, but little work has been done to explore their theoretical properties. Recently, several deep neural networks, e.g., fully connected and convolutional neural networks, with infinite hidden units have been proved to be equivalent to Gaussian processes~(GPs). To exploit both the powerful representational capacity of GCNs and the great expressive power of GPs, we investigate similar properties of infinitely wide GCNs. More specifically, we propose a GP regression model via GCNs~(GPGC) for graph-based semi-supervised learning. In the process, we formulate the kernel matrix computation of GPGC in an iterative analytical form. Finally, we derive a conditional distribution for the labels of unobserved nodes based on the graph structure, labels for the observed nodes, and the feature matrix of all the nodes. We conduct extensive experiments to evaluate the semi-supervised classification performance of GPGC and demonstrate that it outperforms other state-of-the-art methods by a clear margin on all the datasets while being efficient.

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