arXiv subjects

Jilles Vreeken

Publications and source records attributed to Jilles Vreeken.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

In-Context Time Series Classification with Random Convolutional Features

Time series classification is central to domains like medical signal analysis, industrial monitoring, and sensor-based activity recognition, where class information manifests as localized shapes, specific frequencies, temporal shifts, or complex cross-channel interactions. Random convolutional transforms efficiently map these sequences to fixed-dimensional tabular features but are traditionally paired with simple linear classifiers. We investigate whether a pretrained tabular foundation model can more effectively harness these rich representations. We propose MASHT, a pipeline that marries MultiRocket and Hydra features with the power of in-context tabular foundation models. By leveraging a pretrained tabular foundation model, our approach completely bypasses task-specific model training, requiring only feature extraction and direct inference. Extensive experiments demonstrate that MASHT matches state-of-the-art time series classification baselines on univariate tasks, achieving a lower average rank than HIVE-COTE 2.0. On multivariate datasets, MASHT remains highly competitive with the strongest reference methods.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Identifying Structural Biases from Causal Mechanism Shifts

Causal discovery methods commonly assume that all data is independently and identically distributed (i.i.d.) and that there are no unmeasured variables affecting the system. In practice, these assumptions are often violated, leading to inaccurate inference. In this paper, we study how to identify hidden confounding and selection biases from causal mechanism shifts. In particular, we show that structural biases lead to dependent mechanism shifts. That is, by considering for which variables the mechanisms change given data from different environments, we can tell which variables are unbiased, which are subject to hidden confounding, and which are undergoing selection bias. We formalize this into an empirically testable criterion based on mutual information, and show under which conditions it identifies structural biases. To tell which nodes are subject to what kind of bias, we introduce the StruBI algorithm. Experiments on synthetic and real-world data show that StruBI works well in practice, accurately recovering affected variable sets and types of biases, outperforming the state-of-the-art by a wide margin.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Discovering Subgroups with Exceptional Survival Characteristics

In many applications, it is important to identify subpopulations that survive longer or shorter than the rest of the population. In medicine, for example, it allows determining which patients benefit from treatment, and in predictive maintenance, which components are more likely to fail. Existing methods for discovering subgroups with exceptional survival characteristics rely on restrictive assumptions about the survival model (e.g. proportional hazards), require pre-discretized features, and, as they compare average statistics, tend to overlook individual heterogeneity. In this paper, we propose Sysurv, a non-parametric, fully differentiable method that discovers human-readable rules selecting subgroups with exceptional survival characteristics. Empirical evaluation on a wide range of datasets and settings, including a case study on cancer data, shows that Sysurv reveals insightful and actionable survival subgroups, outperforming the state of the art.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Learning Causal Orderings for In-Context Tabular Prediction

In-context learning for tabular data sets strong predictive standards in observational settings; it however primarily relies on correlational structure, which becomes unreliable under distribution shift or intervention. While established methods to discover causal structure exist, they are often focused on structure identifiability and decoupled from the predictive architectures that could benefit from them. To bridge these perspectives, we study how to simultaneously infer and enforce causal structure in the form of topological variable orderings into tabular prediction. Unlike standard architectures, our model TabOrder uses causal order-constrained attention, basing predictions only on features that precede a target under a learned causal order. Similar to causal discovery methods, TabOrder learns the optimal variable ordering in an unsupervised manner through a likelihood-based objective. We justify this choice under standard functional model classes and also study how sample missingness, a common challenge in tabular data, interacts with causal direction identification. Empirically, we confirm that TabOrder recovers accurate variable orderings while addressing prediction and imputation tasks, as well as gives insight into real-world biological data under intervention.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Root Cause Analysis of Measurement and Mechanistic Anomalies

Root cause analysis of anomalies aims to identify how and why a sample deviates from the normal process. Existing methods primarily focus on telling which features are responsible, ignoring that anomalies can arise through two fundamentally different processes: measurement errors, where the sample is generated normally but one or more values is recorded incorrectly, and mechanism shifts, where the causal process that generated the sample was changed. While measurement errors can often be safely corrected, mechanistic anomalies require careful consideration. In this paper, we formally define a causal model that explicitly captures both types by treating outliers as latent interventions on latent ("true") and observed ("measured") variables and show under which conditions the distinction is possible. Based on this model, we develop an efficient inference procedure for localizing root causes and distinguishing anomaly types. Experiments on synthetic and real-world data show that our method provides state-of-the-art and highly robust performance in both root cause localization and classification of anomaly types.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Differential Subgroup Discovery: Characterizing Where Two Populations Differ, and Why

We study the problem of understanding where two populations differ within a feature space, which we formalize in the concept of a differential subgroup: a subset of individuals from both populations who, despite sharing similar characteristics, exhibit exceptional differences in a target outcome. Differential subgroups reveal the regions of the feature space where population-level gaps are most pronounced and can help practitioners identify the covariate combinations that are structurally responsible for these differences, e.g.~in clinical analysis, model diagnostics, or treatment-effect studies. We introduce a general optimization objective for discovering differential subgroups and establish conditions under which the resulting subgroups admit a causal interpretation of population differences. We propose DiffSub, a gradient-based approach that discovers interpretable differential subgroups in tabular data. Across synthetic benchmarks, medical case studies, model-error analyses, and treatment-effect settings, DiffSub identifies informative subgroups that reveal where population differences arise and why.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Hidden in Plain Sight -- Class Competition Focuses Attribution Maps

Attribution methods reveal which input features a neural network uses for a prediction, adding transparency to their decisions. A common problem is that these attributions seem unspecific, highlighting both important and irrelevant features. We revisit the common attribution pipeline and observe that using logits as attribution target is a main cause of this phenomenon. We show that the solution is in plain sight: considering distributions of attributions over multiple classes using existing attribution methods yields specific and fine-grained attributions. On common benchmarks, including the grid-pointing game and randomization-based sanity checks, this improves the ability of 18 attribution methods across 7 architectures up to 2x, agnostic to model architecture.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2025

When Flatness Does (Not) Guarantee Adversarial Robustness

Despite their empirical success, neural networks remain vulnerable to small, adversarial perturbations. A longstanding hypothesis suggests that flat minima, regions of low curvature in the loss landscape, offer increased robustness. While intuitive, this connection has remained largely informal and incomplete. By rigorously formalizing the relationship, we show this intuition is only partially correct: flatness implies local but not global adversarial robustness. To arrive at this result, we first derive a closed-form expression for relative flatness in the penultimate layer, and then show we can use this to constrain the variation of the loss in input space. This allows us to formally analyze the adversarial robustness of the entire network. We then show that to maintain robustness beyond a local neighborhood, the loss needs to curve sharply away from the data manifold. We validate our theoretical predictions empirically across architectures and datasets, uncovering the geometric structure that governs adversarial vulnerability, and linking flatness to model confidence: adversarial examples often lie in large, flat regions where the model is confidently wrong. Our results challenge simplified views of flatness and provide a nuanced understanding of its role in robustness.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Seqret: Mining Rule Sets from Event Sequences

Summarizing event sequences is a key aspect of data mining. Most existing methods neglect conditional dependencies and focus on discovering sequential patterns only. In this paper, we study the problem of discovering both conditional and unconditional dependencies from event sequence data. We do so by discovering rules of the form $X \rightarrow Y$ where $X$ and $Y$ are sequential patterns. Rules like these are simple to understand and provide a clear description of the relation between the antecedent and the consequent. To discover succinct and non-redundant sets of rules we formalize the problem in terms of the Minimum Description Length principle. As the search space is enormous and does not exhibit helpful structure, we propose the Seqret method to discover high-quality rule sets in practice. Through extensive empirical evaluation we show that unlike the state of the art, Seqret ably recovers the ground truth on synthetic datasets and finds useful rules from real datasets.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

The Uncanny Valley: Exploring Adversarial Robustness from a Flatness Perspective

Flatness of the loss surface not only correlates positively with generalization, but is also related to adversarial robustness since perturbations of inputs relate non-linearly to perturbations of weights. In this paper, we empirically analyze the relation between adversarial examples and relative flatness with respect to the parameters of one layer. We observe a peculiar property of adversarial examples in the context of relative flatness: during an iterative first-order white-box attack, the flatness of the loss surface measured around the adversarial example first becomes sharper until the label is flipped, but if we keep the attack running, it runs into a flat uncanny valley where the label remains flipped. In extensive experiments, we observe this phenomenon across various model architectures and datasets, even for adversarially trained models. Our results also extend to large language models (LLMs), but due to the discrete nature of the input space and comparatively weak attacks, adversarial examples rarely reach truly flat regions. Most importantly, this phenomenon shows that flatness alone cannot explain adversarial robustness unless we can also guarantee the behavior of the function around the examples. We, therefore theoretically connect relative flatness to adversarial robustness by bounding the third derivative of the loss surface, underlining the need for flatness in combination with a low global Lipschitz constant for a robust model.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Accurately Estimating Unreported Infections using Information Theory

One of the most significant challenges in combating against the spread of infectious diseases was the difficulty in estimating the true magnitude of infections. Unreported infections could drive up disease spread, making it very hard to accurately estimate the infectivity of the pathogen, therewith hampering our ability to react effectively. Despite the use of surveillance-based methods such as serological studies, identifying the true magnitude is still challenging. This paper proposes an information theoretic approach for accurately estimating the number of total infections. Our approach is built on top of Ordinary Differential Equations (ODE) based models, which are commonly used in epidemiology and for estimating such infections. We show how we can help such models to better compute the number of total infections and identify the parametrization by which we need the fewest bits to describe the observed dynamics of reported infections. Our experiments on COVID-19 spread show that our approach leads to not only substantially better estimates of the number of total infections but also better forecasts of infections than standard model calibration based methods. We additionally show how our learned parametrization helps in modeling more accurate what-if scenarios with non-pharmaceutical interventions. Our approach provides a general method for improving epidemic modeling which is applicable broadly.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2025

SpaceTime: Causal Discovery from Non-Stationary Time Series

Understanding causality is challenging and often complicated by changing causal relationships over time and across environments. Climate patterns, for example, shift over time with recurring seasonal trends, while also depending on geographical characteristics such as ecosystem variability. Existing methods for discovering causal graphs from time series either assume stationarity, do not permit both temporal and spatial distribution changes, or are unaware of locations with the same causal relationships. In this work, we therefore unify the three tasks of causal graph discovery in the non-stationary multi-context setting, of reconstructing temporal regimes, and of partitioning datasets and time intervals into those where invariant causal relationships hold. To construct a consistent score that forms the basis of our method, we employ the Minimum Description Length principle. Our resulting algorithm SPACETIME simultaneously accounts for heterogeneity across space and non-stationarity over time. Given multiple time series, it discovers regime changepoints and a temporal causal graph using non-parametric functional modeling and kernelized discrepancy testing. We also show that our method provides insights into real-world phenomena such as river-runoff measured at different catchments and biosphere-atmosphere interactions across ecosystems.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

From your Block to our Block: How to Find Shared Structure between Stochastic Block Models over Multiple Graphs

Stochastic Block Models (SBMs) are a popular approach to modeling single real-world graphs. The key idea of SBMs is to partition the vertices of the graph into blocks with similar edge densities within, as well as between different blocks. However, what if we are given not one but multiple graphs that are unaligned and of different sizes? How can we find out if these graphs share blocks with similar connectivity structures? In this paper, we propose the shared stochastic block modeling (SSBM) problem, in which we model $n$ graphs using SBMs that share parameters of $s$ blocks. We show that fitting an SSBM is NP-hard, and consider two approaches to fit good models in practice. In the first, we directly maximize the likelihood of the shared model using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. In the second, we first fit an SBM for each graph and then select which blocks to share. We propose an integer linear program to find the optimal shared blocks and to scale to large numbers of blocks, we propose a fast greedy algorithm. Through extensive empirical evaluation on synthetic and real-world data, we show that our methods work well in practice.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2024

Neuro-Symbolic Rule Lists

Machine learning models deployed in sensitive areas such as healthcare must be interpretable to ensure accountability and fairness. Rule lists (if Age < 35 $\wedge$ Priors > 0 then Recidivism = True, else if Next Condition . . . ) offer full transparency, making them well-suited for high-stakes decisions. However, learning such rule lists presents significant challenges. Existing methods based on combinatorial optimization require feature pre-discretization and impose restrictions on rule size. Neuro-symbolic methods use more scalable continuous optimization yet place similar pre-discretization constraints and suffer from unstable optimization. To address the existing limitations, we introduce NeuRules, an end-to-end trainable model that unifies discretization, rule learning, and rule order into a single differentiable framework. We formulate a continuous relaxation of the rule list learning problem that converges to a strict rule list through temperature annealing. NeuRules learns both the discretizations of individual features, as well as their combination into conjunctive rules without any pre-processing or restrictions. Extensive experiments demonstrate that NeuRules consistently outperforms both combinatorial and neuro-symbolic methods, effectively learning simple and complex rules, as well as their order, across a wide range of datasets.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Federated Binary Matrix Factorization using Proximal Optimization

Identifying informative components in binary data is an essential task in many research areas, including life sciences, social sciences, and recommendation systems. Boolean matrix factorization (BMF) is a family of methods that performs this task by efficiently factorizing the data. In real-world settings, the data is often distributed across stakeholders and required to stay private, prohibiting the straightforward application of BMF. To adapt BMF to this context, we approach the problem from a federated-learning perspective, while building on a state-of-the-art continuous binary matrix factorization relaxation to BMF that enables efficient gradient-based optimization. We propose to only share the relaxed component matrices, which are aggregated centrally using a proximal operator that regularizes for binary outcomes. We show the convergence of our federated proximal gradient descent algorithm and provide differential privacy guarantees. Our extensive empirical evaluation demonstrates that our algorithm outperforms, in terms of quality and efficacy, federation schemes of state-of-the-art BMF methods on a diverse set of real-world and synthetic data.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Succinct Interaction-Aware Explanations

SHAP is a popular approach to explain black-box models by revealing the importance of individual features. As it ignores feature interactions, SHAP explanations can be confusing up to misleading. NSHAP, on the other hand, reports the additive importance for all subsets of features. While this does include all interacting sets of features, it also leads to an exponentially sized, difficult to interpret explanation. In this paper, we propose to combine the best of these two worlds, by partitioning the features into parts that significantly interact, and use these parts to compose a succinct, interpretable, additive explanation. We derive a criterion by which to measure the representativeness of such a partition for a models behavior, traded off against the complexity of the resulting explanation. To efficiently find the best partition out of super-exponentially many, we show how to prune sub-optimal solutions using a statistical test, which not only improves runtime but also helps to detect spurious interactions. Experiments on synthetic and real world data show that our explanations are both more accurate resp. more easily interpretable than those of SHAP and NSHAP.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Learning Exceptional Subgroups by End-to-End Maximizing KL-divergence

Finding and describing sub-populations that are exceptional regarding a target property has important applications in many scientific disciplines, from identifying disadvantaged demographic groups in census data to finding conductive molecules within gold nanoparticles. Current approaches to finding such subgroups require pre-discretized predictive variables, do not permit non-trivial target distributions, do not scale to large datasets, and struggle to find diverse results. To address these limitations, we propose Syflow, an end-to-end optimizable approach in which we leverage normalizing flows to model arbitrary target distributions, and introduce a novel neural layer that results in easily interpretable subgroup descriptions. We demonstrate on synthetic and real-world data, including a case study, that Syflow reliably finds highly exceptional subgroups accompanied by insightful descriptions.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Data is Moody: Discovering Data Modification Rules from Process Event Logs

Although event logs are a powerful source to gain insight about the behavior of the underlying business process, existing work primarily focuses on finding patterns in the activity sequences of an event log, while ignoring event attribute data. Event attribute data has mostly been used to predict event occurrences and process outcome, but the state of the art neglects to mine succinct and interpretable rules how event attribute data changes during process execution. Subgroup discovery and rule-based classification approaches lack the ability to capture the sequential dependencies present in event logs, and thus lead to unsatisfactory results with limited insight into the process behavior. Given an event log, we are interested in finding accurate yet succinct and interpretable if-then rules how the process modifies data. We formalize the problem in terms of the Minimum Description Length (MDL) principle, by which we choose the model with the best lossless description of the data. Additionally, we propose the greedy Moody algorithm to efficiently search for rules. By extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world data, we show Moody indeed finds compact and interpretable rules, needs little data for accurate discovery, and is robust to noise.

cs.LG↗