arXiv subjects

Jiming Liu

Publications and source records attributed to Jiming Liu.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Empowering Epidemic Response: The Role of Reinforcement Learning in Infectious Disease Control

Reinforcement learning (RL), owing to its adaptability to various dynamic systems in many real-world scenarios and the capability of maximizing long-term outcomes under different constraints, has been used in infectious disease control to optimize the intervention strategies for controlling infectious disease spread and responding to outbreaks in recent years. The potential of RL for assisting public health sectors in preventing and controlling infectious diseases is gradually emerging and being explored by rapidly increasing publications relevant to COVID-19 and other infectious diseases. However, few surveys exclusively discuss this topic, that is, the development and application of RL approaches for optimizing strategies of non-pharmaceutical and pharmaceutical interventions of public health. Therefore, this paper aims to provide a concise review and discussion of the latest literature on how RL approaches have been used to assist in controlling the spread and outbreaks of infectious diseases, covering several critical topics addressing public health demands: resource allocation, balancing between lives and livelihoods, mixed policy of multiple interventions, and inter-regional coordinated control. Finally, we conclude the paper with a discussion of several potential directions for future research.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Nonlinear Performative Prediction

Performative prediction is an emerging paradigm in machine learning that addresses scenarios where the model's prediction may induce a shift in the distribution of the data it aims to predict. Current works in this field often rely on uncontrollable assumptions, such as bounded gradients of performative loss, and primarily focus on linear cases in their examples and evaluations to maintain consistency between theoretical guarantees and empirical validations. However, such linearity rarely holds in real-world applications, where the data usually exhibit complex nonlinear characteristics. In this paper, we relax these out-of-control assumptions and present a novel design that generalizes performative prediction to nonlinear cases while preserving essential theoretical properties. Specifically, we formulate the loss function of performative prediction using a maximum margin approach and extend it to nonlinear spaces through kernel methods. To quantify the data distribution shift, we employ the discrepancy between prediction errors on these two distributions as an indicator, which characterizes the impact of the performative effect on specific learning tasks. By doing so, we can derive, for both linear and nonlinear cases, the conditions for performative stability, a critical and desirable property in performative contexts. Building on these theoretical insights, we develop an algorithm that guarantees the performative stability of the predictive model. We validate the effectiveness of our method through experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets with both linear and nonlinear data distributions, demonstrating superior performance compared to state-of-the-art baselines.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Towards Performatively Stable Equilibria in Decision-Dependent Games for Arbitrary Data Distribution Maps

In decision-dependent games, multiple players optimize their decisions under a data distribution that shifts with their joint actions, creating complex dynamics in applications like market pricing. A practical consequence of these dynamics is the \textit{performatively stable equilibrium}, where each player's strategy is a best response under the induced distribution. Prior work relies on $\beta$-smoothness, assuming Lipschitz continuity of loss function gradients with respect to the data distribution, which is impractical as the data distribution maps, i.e., the relationship between joint decision and the resulting distribution shifts, are typically unknown, rendering $\beta$ unobtainable. To overcome this limitation, we propose a gradient-based sensitivity measure that directly quantifies the impact of decision-induced distribution shifts. Leveraging this measure, we derive convergence guarantees for performatively stable equilibria under a practically feasible assumption of strong monotonicity. Accordingly, we develop a sensitivity-informed repeated retraining algorithm that adjusts players' loss functions based on the sensitivity measure, guaranteeing convergence to performatively stable equilibria for arbitrary data distribution maps. Experiments on prediction error minimization game, Cournot competition, and revenue maximization game show that our approach outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, achieving lower losses and faster convergence.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2023

Learning Continuous Network Emerging Dynamics from Scarce Observations via Data-Adaptive Stochastic Processes

Learning network dynamics from the empirical structure and spatio-temporal observation data is crucial to revealing the interaction mechanisms of complex networks in a wide range of domains. However, most existing methods only aim at learning network dynamic behaviors generated by a specific ordinary differential equation instance, resulting in ineffectiveness for new ones, and generally require dense observations. The observed data, especially from network emerging dynamics, are usually difficult to obtain, which brings trouble to model learning. Therefore, how to learn accurate network dynamics with sparse, irregularly-sampled, partial, and noisy observations remains a fundamental challenge. We introduce Neural ODE Processes for Network Dynamics (NDP4ND), a new class of stochastic processes governed by stochastic data-adaptive network dynamics, to overcome the challenge and learn continuous network dynamics from scarce observations. Intensive experiments conducted on various network dynamics in ecological population evolution, phototaxis movement, brain activity, epidemic spreading, and real-world empirical systems, demonstrate that the proposed method has excellent data adaptability and computational efficiency, and can adapt to unseen network emerging dynamics, producing accurate interpolation and extrapolation with reducing the ratio of required observation data to only about 6\% and improving the learning speed for new dynamics by three orders of magnitude.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Machine Learning for Infectious Disease Risk Prediction: A Survey

Infectious diseases, either emerging or long-lasting, place numerous people at risk and bring heavy public health burdens worldwide. In the process against infectious diseases, predicting the epidemic risk by modeling the disease transmission plays an essential role in assisting with preventing and controlling disease transmission in a more effective way. In this paper, we systematically describe how machine learning can play an essential role in quantitatively characterizing disease transmission patterns and accurately predicting infectious disease risks. First, we introduce the background and motivation of using machine learning for infectious disease risk prediction. Next, we describe the development and components of various machine learning models for infectious disease risk prediction. Specifically, existing models fall into three categories: Statistical prediction, data-driven machine learning, and epidemiology-inspired machine learning. Subsequently, we discuss challenges encountered when dealing with model inputs, designing task-oriented objectives, and conducting performance evaluation. Finally, we conclude with a discussion of open questions and future directions.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Detecting the skewness of data from the five-number summary and its application in meta-analysis

For clinical studies with continuous outcomes, when the data are potentially skewed, researchers may choose to report the whole or part of the five-number summary (the sample median, the first and third quartiles, and the minimum and maximum values) rather than the sample mean and standard deviation. In the recent literature, it is often suggested to transform the five-number summary back to the sample mean and standard deviation, which can be subsequently used in a meta-analysis. However, if a study contains skewed data, this transformation and hence the conclusions from the meta-analysis are unreliable. Therefore, we introduce a novel method for detecting the skewness of data using only the five-number summary and the sample size, and meanwhile propose a new flow chart to handle the skewed studies in a different manner. We further show by simulations that our skewness tests are able to control the type I error rates and provide good statistical power, followed by a simulated meta-analysis and a real data example that illustrate the usefulness of our new method in meta-analysis and evidence-based medicine.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2023

Decadal Temperature Prediction via Chaotic Behavior Tracking

Decadal temperature prediction provides crucial information for quantifying the expected effects of future climate changes and thus informs strategic planning and decision-making in various domains. However, such long-term predictions are extremely challenging, due to the chaotic nature of temperature variations. Moreover, the usefulness of existing simulation-based and machine learning-based methods for this task is limited because initial simulation or prediction errors increase exponentially over time. To address this challenging task, we devise a novel prediction method involving an information tracking mechanism that aims to track and adapt to changes in temperature dynamics during the prediction phase by providing probabilistic feedback on the prediction error of the next step based on the current prediction. We integrate this information tracking mechanism, which can be considered as a model calibrator, into the objective function of our method to obtain the corrections needed to avoid error accumulation. Our results show the ability of our method to accurately predict global land-surface temperatures over a decadal range. Furthermore, we demonstrate that our results are meaningful in a real-world context: the temperatures predicted using our method are consistent with and can be used to explain the well-known teleconnections within and between different continents.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Efficient and Optimal Algorithms for Tree Summarization with Weighted Terminologies

Data summarization that presents a small subset of a dataset to users has been widely applied in numerous applications and systems. Many datasets are coded with hierarchical terminologies, e.g., the international classification of Diseases-9, Medical Subject Heading, and Gene Ontology, to name a few. In this paper, we study the problem of selecting a diverse set of k elements to summarize an input dataset with hierarchical terminologies, and visualize the summary in an ontology structure. We propose an efficient greedy algorithm to solve the problem with (1-1/e) = 62% -approximation guarantee. Although this greedy solution achieves quality-guaranteed answers approximately but it is still not optimal. To tackle the problem optimally, we further develop a dynamic programming algorithm to obtain optimal answers for graph visualization of log-data using ontology terminologies called OVDO . The complexity and correctness of OVDO are theoretically analyzed. In addition, we propose a useful optimization technique of tree reduction to remove useless nodes with zero weights and shrink the tree into a smaller one, which ensures the efficiency acceleration of OVDO in many real-world applications. Extensive experimental results on real-world datasets show the effectiveness and efficiency of our proposed approximate and exact algorithms for tree data summarization.

cs.DB↗

arXiv2020

Demystifying Deep Learning in Predictive Spatio-Temporal Analytics: An Information-Theoretic Framework

Deep learning has achieved incredible success over the past years, especially in various challenging predictive spatio-temporal analytics (PSTA) tasks, such as disease prediction, climate forecast, and traffic prediction, where intrinsic dependency relationships among data exist and generally manifest at multiple spatio-temporal scales. However, given a specific PSTA task and the corresponding dataset, how to appropriately determine the desired configuration of a deep learning model, theoretically analyze the model's learning behavior, and quantitatively characterize the model's learning capacity remains a mystery. In order to demystify the power of deep learning for PSTA, in this paper, we provide a comprehensive framework for deep learning model design and information-theoretic analysis. First, we develop and demonstrate a novel interactively- and integratively-connected deep recurrent neural network (I$^2$DRNN) model. I$^2$DRNN consists of three modules: an Input module that integrates data from heterogeneous sources; a Hidden module that captures the information at different scales while allowing the information to flow interactively between layers; and an Output module that models the integrative effects of information from various hidden layers to generate the output predictions. Second, to theoretically prove that our designed model can learn multi-scale spatio-temporal dependency in PSTA tasks, we provide an information-theoretic analysis to examine the information-based learning capacity (i-CAP) of the proposed model. Third, to validate the I$^2$DRNN model and confirm its i-CAP, we systematically conduct a series of experiments involving both synthetic datasets and real-world PSTA tasks. The experimental results show that the I$^2$DRNN model outperforms both classical and state-of-the-art models, and is able to capture meaningful multi-scale spatio-temporal dependency.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

AutoTrajectory: Label-free Trajectory Extraction and Prediction from Videos using Dynamic Points

Current methods for trajectory prediction operate in supervised manners, and therefore require vast quantities of corresponding ground truth data for training. In this paper, we present a novel, label-free algorithm, AutoTrajectory, for trajectory extraction and prediction to use raw videos directly. To better capture the moving objects in videos, we introduce dynamic points. We use them to model dynamic motions by using a forward-backward extractor to keep temporal consistency and using image reconstruction to keep spatial consistency in an unsupervised manner. Then we aggregate dynamic points to instance points, which stand for moving objects such as pedestrians in videos. Finally, we extract trajectories by matching instance points for prediction training. To the best of our knowledge, our method is the first to achieve unsupervised learning of trajectory extraction and prediction. We evaluate the performance on well-known trajectory datasets and show that our method is effective for real-world videos and can use raw videos to further improve the performance of existing models.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2020

Reinforcement Learning in Healthcare: A Survey

As a subfield of machine learning, reinforcement learning (RL) aims at empowering one's capabilities in behavioural decision making by using interaction experience with the world and an evaluative feedback. Unlike traditional supervised learning methods that usually rely on one-shot, exhaustive and supervised reward signals, RL tackles with sequential decision making problems with sampled, evaluative and delayed feedback simultaneously. Such distinctive features make RL technique a suitable candidate for developing powerful solutions in a variety of healthcare domains, where diagnosing decisions or treatment regimes are usually characterized by a prolonged and sequential procedure. This survey discusses the broad applications of RL techniques in healthcare domains, in order to provide the research community with systematic understanding of theoretical foundations, enabling methods and techniques, existing challenges, and new insights of this emerging paradigm. By first briefly examining theoretical foundations and key techniques in RL research from efficient and representational directions, we then provide an overview of RL applications in healthcare domains ranging from dynamic treatment regimes in chronic diseases and critical care, automated medical diagnosis from both unstructured and structured clinical data, as well as many other control or scheduling domains that have infiltrated many aspects of a healthcare system. Finally, we summarize the challenges and open issues in current research, and point out some potential solutions and directions for future research.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2018

Periodicity in Movement Patterns Shapes Epidemic Risk in Urban Environments

Daily variation in human mobility modulates the speed and severity of emerging outbreaks, yet most epidemiological studies assume static contact patterns. With a highly mobile population exceeding 24 million people, Shanghai, China is a transportation hub at high risk for the importation and subsequent global propagation of infectious diseases. Here, we use a dynamic metapopulation model informed by hourly transit data for Shanghai to estimate epidemic risks across thousands of outbreak scenarios. We find that the rate of initial epidemic growth varies by more than twenty-fold, depending on the hour and neighborhood of disease introduction. The riskiest introductions are those occurring close to the city center and on Fridays--which bridge weekday and weekend transit patterns and thereby connect otherwise disconnected portions of the population. The identification of these spatio-temporal hotspots can inform more efficient targets for sentinel surveillance and strategies for mitigating transmission.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2018

A Cooperative Group Optimization System

A cooperative group optimization (CGO) system is presented to implement CGO cases by integrating the advantages of the cooperative group and low-level algorithm portfolio design. Following the nature-inspired paradigm of a cooperative group, the agents not only explore in a parallel way with their individual memory, but also cooperate with their peers through the group memory. Each agent holds a portfolio of (heterogeneous) embedded search heuristics (ESHs), in which each ESH can drive the group into a stand-alone CGO case, and hybrid CGO cases in an algorithmic space can be defined by low-level cooperative search among a portfolio of ESHs through customized memory sharing. The optimization process might also be facilitated by a passive group leader through encoding knowledge in the search landscape. Based on a concrete framework, CGO cases are defined by a script assembling over instances of algorithmic components in a toolbox. A multilayer design of the script, with the support of the inherent updatable graph in the memory protocol, enables a simple way to address the challenge of accumulating heterogeneous ESHs and defining customized portfolios without any additional code. The CGO system is implemented for solving the constrained optimization problem with some generic components and only a few domain-specific components. Guided by the insights from algorithm portfolio design, customized CGO cases based on basic search operators can achieve competitive performance over existing algorithms as compared on a set of commonly-used benchmark instances. This work might provide a basic step toward a user-oriented development framework, since the algorithmic space might be easily evolved by accumulating competent ESHs.

cs.NE↗

arXiv2018

Testing normality using the summary statistics with application to meta-analysis

As the most important tool to provide high-level evidence-based medicine, researchers can statistically summarize and combine data from multiple studies by conducting meta-analysis. In meta-analysis, mean differences are frequently used effect size measurements to deal with continuous data, such as the Cohen's d statistic and Hedges' g statistic values. To calculate the mean difference based effect sizes, the sample mean and standard deviation are two essential summary measures. However, many of the clinical reports tend not to directly record the sample mean and standard deviation. Instead, the sample size, median, minimum and maximum values and/or the first and third quartiles are reported. As a result, researchers have to transform the reported information to the sample mean and standard deviation for further compute the effect size. Since most of the popular transformation methods were developed upon the normality assumption of the underlying data, it is necessary to perform a pre-test before transforming the summary statistics. In this article, we had introduced test statistics for three popular scenarios in meta-analysis. We suggests medical researchers to perform a normality test of the selected studies before using them to conduct further analysis. Moreover, we applied three different case studies to demonstrate the usage of the newly proposed test statistics. The real data case studies indicate that the new test statistics are easy to apply in practice and by following the recommended path to conduct the meta-analysis, researchers can obtain more reliable conclusions.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2017

Group Sparse Bayesian Learning for Active Surveillance on Epidemic Dynamics

Predicting epidemic dynamics is of great value in understanding and controlling diffusion processes, such as infectious disease spread and information propagation. This task is intractable, especially when surveillance resources are very limited. To address the challenge, we study the problem of active surveillance, i.e., how to identify a small portion of system components as sentinels to effect monitoring, such that the epidemic dynamics of an entire system can be readily predicted from the partial data collected by such sentinels. We propose a novel measure, the gamma value, to identify the sentinels by modeling a sentinel network with row sparsity structure. We design a flexible group sparse Bayesian learning algorithm to mine the sentinel network suitable for handling both linear and non-linear dynamical systems by using the expectation maximization method and variational approximation. The efficacy of the proposed algorithm is theoretically analyzed and empirically validated using both synthetic and real-world data.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2017

An Open-Data Analysis of Heterogeneities in Lung Cancer Premature Mortality Rate and Associated Factors among Toronto Neighborhoods

In public health, various data are rigorously collected and published with open access. These data reflect the environmental and non-environmental characteristics of heterogeneous neighborhoods in cities. In the present study, we aimed to study the relations between these data and disease risks in heterogeneous neighborhoods. A flexible framework was developed to determine the key factors correlated with diseases and find the most relevant combination of factors to explain observations of diseases through nonlinear analyses. Taking Lung Cancer Premature Mortality Rate (LCPMR) in Toronto as an example, two environmental factors (green space, and industrial pollution) and two non-environmental factors (immigrants, and mental health visits) were identified in the relational analysis of all of the target neighborhoods. To determine the influence of the heterogeneity of the neighborhoods, they were clustered into three different classes. In the most severe class, two additional factors related to dwellings were determined to be involved, which increased the observation's deviance from 48.1% to 80%. The factors determined in this study may assist governments in improving public health policies.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2017

Understanding the Spatial and Temporal Activity Patterns of Subway Mobility Flows

In urban transportation systems, mobility flows in the subway system reflect the spatial and temporal dynamics of working days. To investigate the variability of mobility flows, we analyse the spatial community through a series of snapshots of subway stations over sequential periods. Using Shanghai as a case study, we find that the spatial community snapshots reveal dynamic passenger activities. Adopting a dual-perspective, we apply spatial and temporal models separately to explore where and when individuals travel for entertainment. In the two models, microblog topics and spatial facilities such as food venues and entertainment businesses are used to characterise the spatial popularity of each station and people's travelling perceptions. In the studied case, the city centre is characterised by greater social influence, and it is better described by the spatial model. In the temporal model, shorter travel distances motivate individuals to start their trips earlier. Interestingly, as the number of food-related facilities near the starting station increases, until it exceeds 1563, the speed of people's journeys slows down. This study provides a method for modelling the effects of social features on mobility flows and for predicting the spatial-temporal mobility flows of newly built subway stations.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2016

Estimating the sample mean and standard deviation from the sample size, median, range and/or interquartile range

In systematic reviews and meta-analysis, researchers often pool the results of the sample mean and standard deviation from a set of similar clinical trials. A number of the trials, however, reported the study using the median, the minimum and maximum values, and/or the first and third quartiles. Hence, in order to combine results, one may have to estimate the sample mean and standard deviation for such trials. In this paper, we propose to improve the existing literature in several directions. First, we show that the sample standard deviation estimation in Hozo et al. (2005) has some serious limitations and is always less satisfactory in practice. Inspired by this, we propose a new estimation method by incorporating the sample size. Second, we systematically study the sample mean and standard deviation estimation problem under more general settings where the first and third quartiles are also available for the trials. Through simulation studies, we demonstrate that the proposed methods greatly improve the existing methods and enrich the literature. We conclude our work with a summary table that serves as a comprehensive guidance for performing meta-analysis in different situations.

stat.ME↗