arXiv subjects

Jinfeng Ge

Publications and source records attributed to Jinfeng Ge.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Sino-US S and T Frictions and Transnational Knowledge Flows: Evidence from machine learning and cross-national patent data

This paper identifies the impact of China-U.S. science and technology (S&T) friction on knowledge flows in different fields, using data on invention patent applications from China, the U.S., Europe, and the World Patent Office (WPO) along with machine-learning-based econometric methods. The empirical results find that the negative impacts of China-U.S. S&T frictions on cross-border knowledge flows are confined to a limited number of technology areas during the period of our observation. This paper further explores the characteristics of the negatively impacted technology areas, and the empirical results show that technology areas that rely more on basic scientific research, where the distribution of U.S. scientific and technological strength is more concentrated, and where the gap between U.S. and Chinese science and technology is narrower, are more likely to be the victims of the Sino-U.S. S&T friction.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2024

Machine Learning for Economic Forecasting: An Application to China's GDP Growth

This paper aims to explore the application of machine learning in forecasting Chinese macroeconomic variables. Specifically, it employs various machine learning models to predict the quarterly real GDP growth of China, and analyzes the factors contributing to the performance differences among these models. Our findings indicate that the average forecast errors of machine learning models are generally lower than those of traditional econometric models or expert forecasts, particularly in periods of economic stability. However, during certain inflection points, although machine learning models still outperform traditional econometric models, expert forecasts may exhibit greater accuracy in some instances due to experts' more comprehensive understanding of the macroeconomic environment and real-time economic variables. In addition to macroeconomic forecasting, this paper employs interpretable machine learning methods to identify the key attributive variables from different machine learning models, aiming to enhance the understanding and evaluation of their contributions to macroeconomic fluctuations.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2023

Large Language Models at Work in China's Labor Market

This paper explores the potential impacts of large language models (LLMs) on the Chinese labor market. We analyze occupational exposure to LLM capabilities by incorporating human expertise and LLM classifications, following the methodology of Eloundou et al. (2023). The results indicate a positive correlation between occupational exposure and both wage levels and experience premiums at the occupation level. This suggests that higher-paying and experience-intensive jobs may face greater exposure risks from LLM-powered software. We then aggregate occupational exposure at the industry level to obtain industrial exposure scores. Both occupational and industrial exposure scores align with expert assessments. Our empirical analysis also demonstrates a distinct impact of LLMs, which deviates from the routinization hypothesis. We present a stylized theoretical framework to better understand this deviation from previous digital technologies. By incorporating entropy-based information theory into the task-based framework, we propose an AI learning theory that reveals a different pattern of LLM impacts compared to the routinization hypothesis.

econ.GN↗