arXiv subjects

Jingkai Liu

Publications and source records attributed to Jingkai Liu.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

FutureX-Pro: Extending Future Prediction to High-Value Vertical Domains

Building upon FutureX, which established a live benchmark for general-purpose future prediction, this report introduces FutureX-Pro, including FutureX-Finance, FutureX-Retail, FutureX-PublicHealth, FutureX-NaturalDisaster, and FutureX-Search. These together form a specialized framework extending agentic future prediction to high-value vertical domains. While generalist agents demonstrate proficiency in open-domain search, their reliability in capital-intensive and safety-critical sectors remains under-explored. FutureX-Pro targets four economically and socially pivotal verticals: Finance, Retail, Public Health, and Natural Disaster. We benchmark agentic Large Language Models (LLMs) on entry-level yet foundational prediction tasks -- ranging from forecasting market indicators and supply chain demands to tracking epidemic trends and natural disasters. By adapting the contamination-free, live-evaluation pipeline of FutureX, we assess whether current State-of-the-Art (SOTA) agentic LLMs possess the domain grounding necessary for industrial deployment. Our findings reveal the performance gap between generalist reasoning and the precision required for high-value vertical applications.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

LLM Swiss Round: Aggregating Multi-Benchmark Performance via Competitive Swiss-System Dynamics

The rapid proliferation of Large Language Models (LLMs) and diverse specialized benchmarks necessitates a shift from fragmented, task-specific metrics to a holistic, competitive ranking system that effectively aggregates performance across multiple ability dimensions. Primarily using static scoring, current evaluation methods are fundamentally limited. They struggle to determine the proper mix ratio across diverse benchmarks, and critically, they fail to capture a model's dynamic competitive fitness or its vulnerability when confronted with sequential, high-stakes tasks. To address this, we introduce the novel Competitive Swiss-System Dynamics (CSD) framework. CSD simulates a multi-round, sequential contest where models are dynamically paired across a curated sequence of benchmarks based on their accumulated win-loss record. And Monte Carlo Simulation ($N=100,000$ iterations) is used to approximate the statistically robust Expected Win Score ($E[S_m]$), which eliminates the noise of random pairing and early-round luck. Furthermore, we implement a Failure Sensitivity Analysis by parameterizing the per-round elimination quantity ($T_k$), which allows us to profile models based on their risk appetite--distinguishing between robust generalists and aggressive specialists. We demonstrate that CSD provides a more nuanced and context-aware ranking than traditional aggregate scoring and static pairwise models, representing a vital step towards risk-informed, next-generation LLM evaluation.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

AInsteinBench: Benchmarking Coding Agents on Scientific Repositories

We introduce AInsteinBench, a large-scale benchmark for evaluating whether large language model (LLM) agents can operate as scientific computing development agents within real research software ecosystems. Unlike existing scientific reasoning benchmarks which focus on conceptual knowledge, or software engineering benchmarks that emphasize generic feature implementation and issue resolving, AInsteinBench evaluates models in end-to-end scientific development settings grounded in production-grade scientific repositories. The benchmark consists of tasks derived from maintainer-authored pull requests across six widely used scientific codebases, spanning quantum chemistry, quantum computing, molecular dynamics, numerical relativity, fluid dynamics, and cheminformatics. All benchmark tasks are carefully curated through multi-stage filtering and expert review to ensure scientific challenge, adequate test coverage, and well-calibrated difficulty. By leveraging evaluation in executable environments, scientifically meaningful failure modes, and test-driven verification, AInsteinBench measures a model's ability to move beyond surface-level code generation toward the core competencies required for computational scientific research.

cs.SE↗

arXiv2025

LPFQA: A Long-Tail Professional Forum-based Benchmark for LLM Evaluation

Large Language Models (LLMs) perform well on standard reasoning and question-answering benchmarks, yet such evaluations often fail to capture their ability to handle long-tail, expertise-intensive knowledge in real-world professional scenarios. We introduce LPFQA, a long-tail knowledge benchmark derived from authentic professional forum discussions, covering 7 academic and industrial domains with 430 curated tasks grounded in practical expertise. LPFQA evaluates specialized reasoning, domain-specific terminology understanding, and contextual interpretation, and adopts a hierarchical difficulty structure to ensure semantic clarity and uniquely identifiable answers. Experiments on over multiple mainstream LLMs reveal substantial performance gaps, particularly on tasks requiring deep domain reasoning, exposing limitations overlooked by existing benchmarks. Overall, LPFQA provides an authentic and discriminative evaluation framework that complements prior benchmarks and informs future LLM development.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Inverse IFEval: Can LLMs Unlearn Stubborn Training Conventions to Follow Real Instructions?

Large Language Models (LLMs) achieve strong performance on diverse tasks but often exhibit cognitive inertia, struggling to follow instructions that conflict with the standardized patterns learned during supervised fine-tuning (SFT). To evaluate this limitation, we propose Inverse IFEval, a benchmark that measures models Counter-intuitive Abilitytheir capacity to override training-induced biases and comply with adversarial instructions. Inverse IFEval introduces eight types of such challenges, including Question Correction, Intentional Textual Flaws, Code without Comments, and Counterfactual Answering. Using a human-in-the-loop pipeline, we construct a dataset of 1012 high-quality Chinese and English questions across 23 domains, evaluated under an optimized LLM-as-a-Judge framework. Experiments on existing leading LLMs demonstrate the necessity of our proposed Inverse IFEval benchmark. Our findings emphasize that future alignment efforts should not only pursue fluency and factual correctness but also account for adaptability under unconventional contexts. We hope that Inverse IFEval serves as both a diagnostic tool and a foundation for developing methods that mitigate cognitive inertia, reduce overfitting to narrow patterns, and ultimately enhance the instruction-following reliability of LLMs in diverse and unpredictable real-world scenarios.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

FutureX: An Advanced Live Benchmark for LLM Agents in Future Prediction

Future prediction is a complex task for LLM agents, requiring a high level of analytical thinking, information gathering, contextual understanding, and decision-making under uncertainty. Agents must not only gather and interpret vast amounts of dynamic information but also integrate diverse data sources, weigh uncertainties, and adapt predictions based on emerging trends, just as human experts do in fields like politics, economics, and finance. Despite its importance, no large-scale benchmark exists for evaluating agents on future prediction, largely due to challenges in handling real-time updates and retrieving timely, accurate answers. To address this, we introduce $\textbf{FutureX}$, a dynamic and live evaluation benchmark specifically designed for LLM agents performing future prediction tasks. FutureX is the largest and most diverse live benchmark for future prediction, supporting real-time daily updates and eliminating data contamination through an automated pipeline for question gathering and answer collection. We evaluate 25 LLM/agent models, including those with reasoning, search capabilities, and integration of external tools such as the open-source Deep Research Agent and closed-source Deep Research models. This comprehensive evaluation assesses agents' adaptive reasoning and performance in dynamic environments. Additionally, we provide in-depth analyses of agents' failure modes and performance pitfalls in future-oriented tasks, including the vulnerability to fake web pages and the temporal validity. Our goal is to establish a dynamic, contamination-free evaluation standard that drives the development of LLM agents capable of performing at the level of professional human analysts in complex reasoning and predictive thinking.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2024

Lurking in the shadows: Unveiling Stealthy Backdoor Attacks against Personalized Federated Learning

Federated Learning (FL) is a collaborative machine learning technique where multiple clients work together with a central server to train a global model without sharing their private data. However, the distribution shift across non-IID datasets of clients poses a challenge to this one-model-fits-all method hindering the ability of the global model to effectively adapt to each client's unique local data. To echo this challenge, personalized FL (PFL) is designed to allow each client to create personalized local models tailored to their private data. While extensive research has scrutinized backdoor risks in FL, it has remained underexplored in PFL applications. In this study, we delve deep into the vulnerabilities of PFL to backdoor attacks. Our analysis showcases a tale of two cities. On the one hand, the personalization process in PFL can dilute the backdoor poisoning effects injected into the personalized local models. Furthermore, PFL systems can also deploy both server-end and client-end defense mechanisms to strengthen the barrier against backdoor attacks. On the other hand, our study shows that PFL fortified with these defense methods may offer a false sense of security. We propose \textit{PFedBA}, a stealthy and effective backdoor attack strategy applicable to PFL systems. \textit{PFedBA} ingeniously aligns the backdoor learning task with the main learning task of PFL by optimizing the trigger generation process. Our comprehensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of \textit{PFedBA} in seamlessly embedding triggers into personalized local models. \textit{PFedBA} yields outstanding attack performance across 10 state-of-the-art PFL algorithms, defeating the existing 6 defense mechanisms. Our study sheds light on the subtle yet potent backdoor threats to PFL systems, urging the community to bolster defenses against emerging backdoor challenges.

cs.LG↗