arXiv subjects

Jingshen Wang

Publications and source records attributed to Jingshen Wang.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Can Language Models Boost the Power of Randomized Experiments Without Statistical Bias?

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are widely adopted for causal inference, yet cost and sample-size constraints limit power. We introduce CALM (Causal Analysis leveraging Language Models), a statistical framework that integrates insights generated by large language models (LLMs) into the analysis of RCTs using established causal estimators to increase precision while preserving statistical validity. In particular, CALM treats LLM-generated outputs as auxiliary prognostic information and corrects their potential bias via a heterogeneous calibration step that residualizes and optimally reweights predictions. We prove that CALM remains consistent even when LLM predictions are biased and achieves efficiency gains over augmented inverse probability weighting estimators for various causal estimands. In particular, CALM develops a few-shot variant that aggregates predictions across randomly sampled demonstration sets. The resulting U-statistic-like predictor restores i.i.d. structure and also mitigates prompt-selection variability. Empirically, in simulations calibrated to a mobile-app depression RCT, CALM delivers lower variance relative to other benchmarking methods, is effective in zero- and few-shot settings, and remains stable across prompt designs. By principled use of LLMs to harness unstructured data and external knowledge learned during pretraining, CALM provides a practical path to more precise causal analyses.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

3D-DefectBench: A Controlled Factorial Study of Vision-Language Model Evaluation Pipelines for Fine-Grained 3D Generation Defects

Automated evaluation is essential for scaling generative 3D systems, where exhaustive human review is costly and slow. However, the reliability of an automated judge depends on the entire evaluation pipeline, not only the underlying vision-language model (VLM), but also how assets are rendered, what visual evidence is provided, how the task is specified, and how human reference labels are constructed. We introduce 3D-DefectBench, a benchmark and framework for systematic analysis of VLM-based 3D defect detection pipelines. It complements holistic ratings and pairwise preferences with nine fine-grained binary defects spanning geometry, texture, and prompt adherence, providing actionable diagnostics for generator development and judge evaluation. Using a balanced factorial design, we vary four pipeline factors, VLM, camera protocol, visual input, and prompt schema, across 84 inference designs and approximately 3.2 million scored defect decisions, followed by staged validation on a broader set of frontier models. Model choice is the largest determinant of agreement with human labels, but the remaining factors also affect performance, interact with model selection, and can change the best configuration. Within the evaluated design space, a compact six-view RGB protocol performs comparably to denser multi-view settings and inputs augmented with depth or surface normals, making it a strong cost-effective default. Under this standardized pipeline, the best of 12 VLM judges still lag behind trained human labelers, while texture agreement drops sharply when expert-consensus labels are replaced by noisier silver labels. These findings show that automated judges should be evaluated as complete pipelines and calibrated across human reference regimes, rather than benchmarked only as standalone models. We release labels, prompts, predictions, and Croissant metadata on Hugging Face.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2026

HERO: Improving the Reliability and Sensitivity of Generative Model Evaluation Using Historical Data

Reliable generative AI models critically rely on expert human annotations to evaluate output quality, yet these "gold" labels are expensive to collect and limited in quantity. Organizations thus often turn to collecting vast but noisy "silver" labels from crowdsourced workers or vendor annotators as proxies for gold labels. Because gold remains the evaluation target, naively aggregating noisy silver labels may introduce bias, and estimators built on sparsely observed gold labels may have high variance to resolve the model performance gaps that guide practical decisions. Model evaluation has become an ongoing operational practice rather than a one-time exercise, with evaluation rounds repeating across model versions, releases, and content domains. A natural question is whether the previous historical evaluation data can be used to improve each new round of evaluation. We introduce HERO (History Enhanced RObust model evaluation), a novel framework that uses historical data to suppress bias (improve reliability) and reduce variance (improve sensitivity) in model performance evaluation. HERO calibrates silver labelers' performance learned from historical gold annotations, and stabilizes the resulting estimator by anchoring it to covariate information measured with high precision in the historical data. HERO can be broadly applied across multiple common evaluation tasks, and remains valid when only a subset of historical labelers appears in the current round. We establish conditions under which the bias and variance reductions hold, showcase HERO's performance in simulation studies, and demonstrate its effectiveness on real-world model evaluation benchmarking datasets.

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arXiv2026

DB-3DME: From Dataset to Benchmark for Human-aligned Automatic 3D Mesh Evaluation

Recent advances in 3D generation have led to substantial improvements in realism, controllability, and efficiency, yet the evaluation of 3D assets remains underexplored. Existing evaluation paradigms, including human evaluation, learned metrics, and vision-language models (VLMs) as judges, suffer from limitations in cost, scalability, resolution handling, or task-specific alignment. In this work, we focus on 3D mesh evaluation and introduce DB-3DME, the Dataset and Benchmark for 3D Mesh Evaluation. DB-3DME contains 2,619 synthetic 3D meshes paired with human ratings on Geometry and Prompt Adherence. Using this dataset, we systematically benchmark state-of-the-art VLMs and identify visual encoding of 3D representations as a key factor for human-aligned evaluation performance. Motivated by this finding, we fine-tune an open-weight VLM, Qwen-2.5-VL-7B, for 3D mesh evaluation by adapting the visual encoder while freezing the language model. The fine-tuned model substantially outperforms existing pre-trained VLMs across multiple evaluation dimensions, establishing a new benchmark for automatic 3D mesh evaluation. We publicly release the benchmark dataset on GitHub and Hugging Face to facilitate future research.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2026

MedFrameQA: A Multi-Image Medical VQA Benchmark for Clinical Reasoning

Real-world clinical practice demands multi-image comparative reasoning, yet current medical benchmarks remain limited to single-frame interpretation. We present MedFrameQA, the first benchmark explicitly designed to test multi-image medical VQA through educationally-validated diagnostic sequences. To construct this dataset, we develop a scalable pipeline that leverages narrative transcripts from medical education videos to align visual frames with textual concepts, automatically producing 2,851 high-quality multi-image VQA pairs with explicit, transcript-grounded reasoning chains. Our evaluation of 11 advanced MLLMs (including reasoning models) exposes severe deficiencies in multi-image synthesis, where accuracies mostly fall below 50% and exhibit instability across varying image counts. Error analysis demonstrates that models often treat images as isolated instances, failing to track pathological progression or cross-reference anatomical shifts. MedFrameQA provides a rigorous standard for evaluating the next generation of MLLMs in handling complex, temporally grounded medical narratives.

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arXiv2026

Efficient Subgroup Analysis via Optimal Trees with Global Parameter Fusion

Identifying and making statistical inferences on differential treatment effects (commonly known as subgroup analysis in clinical research) is central to precision health. Subgroup analysis allows practitioners to pinpoint populations for whom a treatment is especially beneficial or protective, thereby advancing targeted interventions. Tree based recursive partitioning methods are widely used for subgroup analysis due to their interpretability. Nevertheless, these approaches encounter significant limitations, including suboptimal partitions induced by greedy heuristics and overfitting from locally estimated splits, especially under limited sample sizes. To address these limitations, we propose a fused optimal causal tree method that leverages mixed integer optimization (MIO) to facilitate precise subgroup identification. Our approach ensures globally optimal partitions and introduces a parameter fusion constraint to facilitate information sharing across related subgroups. This design substantially improves subgroup discovery accuracy and enhances statistical efficiency. We provide theoretical guarantees by rigorously establishing out of sample risk bounds and comparing them with those of classical tree based methods. Empirically, our method consistently outperforms popular baselines in simulations. Finally, we demonstrate its practical utility through a case study on the Health and Aging Brain Study Health Disparities (HABS-HD) dataset, where our approach yields clinically meaningful insights.

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arXiv2025

Agentic AI for Scaling Diagnosis and Care in Neurodegenerative Disease

United States healthcare systems are struggling to meet the growing demand for neurological care, particularly in Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRD). Generative AI built on language models (LLMs) now enables agentic AI systems that can enhance clinician capabilities to approach specialist-level assessment and decision-making in ADRD care at scale. This article presents a comprehensive six-phase roadmap for responsible design and integration of such systems into ADRD care: (1) high-quality standardized data collection across modalities; (2) decision support; (3) clinical integration enhancing workflows; (4) rigorous validation and monitoring protocols; (5) continuous learning through clinical feedback; and (6) robust ethics and risk management frameworks. This human centered approach optimizes clinicians' capabilities in comprehensive data collection, interpretation of complex clinical information, and timely application of relevant medical knowledge while prioritizing patient safety, healthcare equity, and transparency. Though focused on ADRD, these principles offer broad applicability across medical specialties facing similar systemic challenges.

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arXiv2025

Covariate-Adjusted Response-Adaptive Design with Delayed Outcomes

Covariate-adjusted response-adaptive (CARA) designs have gained widespread adoption for their clear benefits in enhancing experimental efficiency and participant welfare. These designs dynamically adjust treatment allocations during interim analyses based on participant responses and covariates collected during the experiment. However, delayed responses can significantly compromise the effectiveness of CARA designs, as they hinder timely adjustments to treatment assignments when certain participant outcomes are not immediately observed. In this paper, we propose a fully forward-looking CARA design that dynamically updates treatment assignments throughout the experiment as response delay mechanisms are progressively estimated. Our design strategy is informed by novel semiparametric efficiency calculations that explicitly account for outcome delays in a multi-stage setting. Through both theoretical investigations and simulation studies, we demonstrate that our proposed design offers a robust solution for handling delayed outcomes in CARA designs, yielding significant improvements in both statistical power and participant welfare.

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arXiv2025

Winner's Curse Free Robust Mendelian Randomization with Summary Data

In the past decade, the increased availability of genome-wide association studies summary data has popularized Mendelian Randomization (MR) for conducting causal inference. MR analyses, incorporating genetic variants as instrumental variables, are known for their robustness against reverse causation bias and unmeasured confounders. Nevertheless, classical MR analyses utilizing summary data may still produce biased causal effect estimates due to the winner's curse and pleiotropic issues. To address these two issues and establish valid causal conclusions, we propose a unified robust Mendelian Randomization framework with summary data, which systematically removes the winner's curse and screens out invalid genetic instruments with pleiotropic effects. Different from existing robust MR literature, our framework delivers valid statistical inference on the causal effect neither requiring the genetic pleiotropy effects to follow any parametric distribution nor relying on perfect instrument screening property. Under appropriate conditions, we show that our proposed estimator converges to a normal distribution and its variance can be well estimated. We demonstrate the performance of our proposed estimator through Monte Carlo simulations and two case studies. The codes implementing the procedures are available at https://github.com/ChongWuLab/CARE/.

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arXiv2024

Adaptive Experiments Toward Learning Treatment Effect Heterogeneity

Understanding treatment effect heterogeneity has become an increasingly popular task in various fields, as it helps design personalized advertisements in e-commerce or targeted treatment in biomedical studies. However, most of the existing work in this research area focused on either analyzing observational data based on strong causal assumptions or conducting post hoc analyses of randomized controlled trial data, and there has been limited effort dedicated to the design of randomized experiments specifically for uncovering treatment effect heterogeneity. In the manuscript, we develop a framework for designing and analyzing response adaptive experiments toward better learning treatment effect heterogeneity. Concretely, we provide response adaptive experimental design frameworks that sequentially revise the data collection mechanism according to the accrued evidence during the experiment. Such design strategies allow for the identification of subgroups with the largest treatment effects with enhanced statistical efficiency. The proposed frameworks not only unify adaptive enrichment designs and response-adaptive randomization designs but also complement A/B test designs in e-commerce and randomized trial designs in clinical settings. We demonstrate the merit of our design with theoretical justifications and in simulation studies with synthetic e-commerce and clinical trial data.

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arXiv2024

Mediation Analysis with Mendelian Randomization and Efficient Multiple GWAS Integration

Mediation analysis is a powerful tool for studying causal pathways between exposure, mediator, and outcome variables of interest. While classical mediation analysis using observational data often requires strong and sometimes unrealistic assumptions, such as unconfoundedness, Mendelian Randomization (MR) avoids unmeasured confounding bias by employing genetic variations as instrumental variables. We develop a novel MR framework for mediation analysis with genome-wide associate study (GWAS) summary data, and provide solid statistical guarantees. Our framework employs carefully crafted estimating equations, allowing for different sets of genetic variations to instrument the exposure and the mediator, to efficiently integrate information stored in three independent GWAS. As part of this endeavor, we demonstrate that in mediation analysis, the challenge raised by instrument selection goes beyond the well-known winner's curse issue, and therefore, addressing it requires special treatment. We then develop bias correction techniques to address the instrument selection issue and commonly encountered measurement error bias issue. Collectively, through our theoretical investigations, we show that our framework provides valid statistical inference for both direct and mediation effects with enhanced statistical efficiency compared to existing methods. We further illustrate the finite-sample performance of our approach through simulation experiments and a case study.

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arXiv2024

Forward selection and post-selection inference in factorial designs

Ever since the seminal work of R. A. Fisher and F. Yates, factorial designs have been an important experimental tool to simultaneously estimate the effects of multiple treatment factors. In factorial designs, the number of treatment combinations grows exponentially with the number of treatment factors, which motivates the forward selection strategy based on the sparsity, hierarchy, and heredity principles for factorial effects. Although this strategy is intuitive and has been widely used in practice, its rigorous statistical theory has not been formally established. To fill this gap, we establish design-based theory for forward factor selection in factorial designs based on the potential outcome framework. We not only prove a consistency property for the factor selection procedure but also discuss statistical inference after factor selection. In particular, with selection consistency, we quantify the advantages of forward selection based on asymptotic efficiency gain in estimating factorial effects. With inconsistent selection in higher-order interactions, we propose two strategies and investigate their impact on subsequent inference. Our formulation differs from the existing literature on variable selection and post-selection inference because our theory is based solely on the physical randomization of the factorial design and does not rely on a correctly specified outcome model.

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arXiv2023

Fair Adaptive Experiments

Randomized experiments have been the gold standard for assessing the effectiveness of a treatment or policy. The classical complete randomization approach assigns treatments based on a prespecified probability and may lead to inefficient use of data. Adaptive experiments improve upon complete randomization by sequentially learning and updating treatment assignment probabilities. However, their application can also raise fairness and equity concerns, as assignment probabilities may vary drastically across groups of participants. Furthermore, when treatment is expected to be extremely beneficial to certain groups of participants, it is more appropriate to expose many of these participants to favorable treatment. In response to these challenges, we propose a fair adaptive experiment strategy that simultaneously enhances data use efficiency, achieves an envy-free treatment assignment guarantee, and improves the overall welfare of participants. An important feature of our proposed strategy is that we do not impose parametric modeling assumptions on the outcome variables, making it more versatile and applicable to a wider array of applications. Through our theoretical investigation, we characterize the convergence rate of the estimated treatment effects and the associated standard deviations at the group level and further prove that our adaptive treatment assignment algorithm, despite not having a closed-form expression, approaches the optimal allocation rule asymptotically. Our proof strategy takes into account the fact that the allocation decisions in our design depend on sequentially accumulated data, which poses a significant challenge in characterizing the properties and conducting statistical inference of our method. We further provide simulation evidence to showcase the performance of our fair adaptive experiment strategy.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2023

Debiased Inference on Heterogeneous Quantile Treatment Effects with Regression Rank-Scores

Understanding treatment effect heterogeneity is vital to many scientific fields because the same treatment may affect different individuals differently. Quantile regression provides a natural framework for modeling such heterogeneity. We propose a new method for inference on heterogeneous quantile treatment effects in the presence of high-dimensional covariates. Our estimator combines an $\ell_1$-penalized regression adjustment with a quantile-specific bias correction scheme based on rank scores. We study the theoretical properties of this estimator, including weak convergence and semiparametric efficiency of the estimated heterogeneous quantile treatment effect process. We illustrate the finite-sample performance of our approach through simulations and an empirical example, dealing with the differential effect of statin usage for lowering low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels for the Alzheimer's disease patients who participated in the UK Biobank study.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2023

Statistical Inference on Multi-armed Bandits with Delayed Feedback

Multi armed bandit (MAB) algorithms have been increasingly used to complement or integrate with A/B tests and randomized clinical trials in e-commerce, healthcare, and policymaking. Recent developments incorporate possible delayed feedback. While existing MAB literature often focuses on maximizing the expected cumulative reward outcomes (or, equivalently, regret minimization), few efforts have been devoted to establish valid statistical inference approaches to quantify the uncertainty of learned policies. We attempt to fill this gap by providing a unified statistical inference framework for policy evaluation where a target policy is allowed to differ from the data collecting policy, and our framework allows delay to be associated with the treatment arms. We present an adaptively weighted estimator that on one hand incorporates the arm-dependent delaying mechanism to achieve consistency, and on the other hand mitigates the variance inflation across stages due to vanishing sampling probability. In particular, our estimator does not critically depend on the ability to estimate the unknown delay mechanism. Under appropriate conditions, we prove that our estimator converges to a normal distribution as the number of time points goes to infinity, which provides guarantees for large-sample statistical inference. We illustrate the finite-sample performance of our approach through Monte Carlo experiments.

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arXiv2023

Treatment Effect Estimation with Efficient Data Aggregation

Data aggregation, also known as meta analysis, is widely used to combine knowledge on parameters shared in common (e.g., average treatment effect) between multiple studies. In this paper, we introduce an attractive data aggregation scheme that pools summary statistics from various existing studies. Our scheme informs the design of new validation studies and yields us unbiased estimators for the shared parameters. In our setup, each existing study applies a LASSO regression to select a parsimonious model from a large set of covariates. It is well known that post-hoc estimators, in the selected model, tend to be biased. We show that a novel technique called \textit{data carving} yields us a new unbiased estimator by aggregating simple summary statistics from all existing studies. Our estimator has two key features: (a) we make the fullest possible use of data, from all studies, without the risk of bias from model selection; (b) we enjoy the added benefit of individual data privacy, because raw data from these studies need not be shared or stored for efficient estimation.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2023

Breaking the Winner's Curse in Mendelian Randomization: Rerandomized Inverse Variance Weighted Estimator

Developments in genome-wide association studies and the increasing availability of summary genetic association data have made the application of two-sample Mendelian Randomization (MR) with summary data increasingly popular. Conventional two-sample MR methods often employ the same sample for selecting relevant genetic variants and for constructing final causal estimates. Such a practice often leads to biased causal effect estimates due to the well known "winner's curse" phenomenon. To address this fundamental challenge, we first examine its consequence on causal effect estimation both theoretically and empirically. We then propose a novel framework that systematically breaks the winner's curse, leading to unbiased association effect estimates for the selected genetic variants. Building upon the proposed framework, we introduce a novel rerandomized inverse variance weighted estimator that is consistent when selection and parameter estimation are conducted on the same sample. Under appropriate conditions, we show that the proposed RIVW estimator for the causal effect converges to a normal distribution asymptotically and its variance can be well estimated. We illustrate the finite-sample performance of our approach through Monte Carlo experiments and two empirical examples.

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arXiv2022

Efficient Targeted Learning of Heterogeneous Treatment Effects for Multiple Subgroups

In biomedical science, analyzing treatment effect heterogeneity plays an essential role in assisting personalized medicine. The main goals of analyzing treatment effect heterogeneity include estimating treatment effects in clinically relevant subgroups and predicting whether a patient subpopulation might benefit from a particular treatment. Conventional approaches often evaluate the subgroup treatment effects via parametric modeling and can thus be susceptible to model mis-specifications. In this manuscript, we take a model-free semiparametric perspective and aim to efficiently evaluate the heterogeneous treatment effects of multiple subgroups simultaneously under the one-step targeted maximum-likelihood estimation (TMLE) framework. When the number of subgroups is large, we further expand this path of research by looking at a variation of the one-step TMLE that is robust to the presence of small estimated propensity scores in finite samples. From our simulations, our method demonstrates substantial finite sample improvements compared to conventional methods. In a case study, our method unveils the potential treatment effect heterogeneity of rs12916-T allele (a proxy for statin usage) in decreasing Alzheimer's disease risk.

stat.ME↗