arXiv subjects

Jingyuan Wang

Publications and source records attributed to Jingyuan Wang.

93 records · Page 6Linked to original sources

arXiv2018

Multilevel Wavelet Decomposition Network for Interpretable Time Series Analysis

Recent years have witnessed the unprecedented rising of time series from almost all kindes of academic and industrial fields. Various types of deep neural network models have been introduced to time series analysis, but the important frequency information is yet lack of effective modeling. In light of this, in this paper we propose a wavelet-based neural network structure called multilevel Wavelet Decomposition Network (mWDN) for building frequency-aware deep learning models for time series analysis. mWDN preserves the advantage of multilevel discrete wavelet decomposition in frequency learning while enables the fine-tuning of all parameters under a deep neural network framework. Based on mWDN, we further propose two deep learning models called Residual Classification Flow (RCF) and multi-frequecy Long Short-Term Memory (mLSTM) for time series classification and forecasting, respectively. The two models take all or partial mWDN decomposed sub-series in different frequencies as input, and resort to the back propagation algorithm to learn all the parameters globally, which enables seamless embedding of wavelet-based frequency analysis into deep learning frameworks. Extensive experiments on 40 UCR datasets and a real-world user volume dataset demonstrate the excellent performance of our time series models based on mWDN. In particular, we propose an importance analysis method to mWDN based models, which successfully identifies those time-series elements and mWDN layers that are crucially important to time series analysis. This indeed indicates the interpretability advantage of mWDN, and can be viewed as an indepth exploration to interpretable deep learning.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2018

Inferring Metapopulation Propagation Network for Intra-city Epidemic Control and Prevention

Since the 21st century, the global outbreaks of infectious diseases such as SARS in 2003, H1N1 in 2009, and H7N9 in 2013, have become the critical threat to the public health and a hunting nightmare to the government. Understanding the propagation in large-scale metapopulations and predicting the future outbreaks thus become crucially important for epidemic control and prevention. In the literature, there have been a bulk of studies on modeling intra-city epidemic propagation but with the single population assumption (homogeneity). Some recent works on metapopulation propagation, however, focus on finding specific human mobility physical networks to approximate diseases transmission networks, whose generality to fit different diseases cannot be guaranteed. In this paper, we argue that the intra-city epidemic propagation should be modeled on a metapopulation base, and propose a two-step method for this purpose. The first step is to understand the propagation system by inferring the underlying disease infection network. To this end, we propose a novel network inference model called D$^2$PRI, which reduces the individual network into a sub-population network without information loss, and incorporates the power-law distribution prior and data prior for better performance. The second step is to predict the disease propagation by extending the classic SIR model to a metapopulation SIR model that allows visitors transmission between any two sub-populations. The validity of our model is testified on a real-life clinical report data set about the airborne disease in the Shenzhen city, China. The D$^2$PRI model with the extended SIR model exhibit superior performance in various tasks including network inference, infection prediction and outbreaks simulation.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2014

Predictability of road traffic and congestion in urban areas

Mitigating traffic congestion on urban roads, with paramount importance in urban development and reduction of energy consumption and air pollution, depends on our ability to foresee road usage and traffic conditions pertaining to the collective behavior of drivers, raising a significant question: to what degree is road traffic predictable in urban areas? Here we rely on the precise records of daily vehicle mobility based on GPS positioning device installed in taxis to uncover the potential daily predictability of urban traffic patterns. Using the mapping from the degree of congestion on roads into a time series of symbols and measuring its entropy, we find a relatively high daily predictability of traffic conditions despite the absence of any a priori knowledge of drivers' origins and destinations and quite different travel patterns between weekdays and weekends. Moreover, we find a counterintuitive dependence of the predictability on travel speed: the road segment associated with intermediate average travel speed is most difficult to be predicted. We also explore the possibility of recovering the traffic condition of an inaccessible segment from its adjacent segments with respect to limited observability. The highly predictable traffic patterns in spite of the heterogeneity of drivers' behaviors and the variability of their origins and destinations enables development of accurate predictive models for eventually devising practical strategies to mitigate urban road congestion.

physics.soc-ph↗