arXiv subjects

Jinhua Zhao

Publications and source records attributed to Jinhua Zhao.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

arXiv2025

Virtual Nodes Improve Long-term Traffic Prediction

Effective traffic prediction is a cornerstone of intelligent transportation systems, enabling precise forecasts of traffic flow, speed, and congestion. While traditional spatio-temporal graph neural networks (ST-GNNs) have achieved notable success in short-term traffic forecasting, their performance in long-term predictions remains limited. This challenge arises from over-squashing problem, where bottlenecks and limited receptive fields restrict information flow and hinder the modeling of global dependencies. To address these challenges, this study introduces a novel framework that incorporates virtual nodes, which are additional nodes added to the graph and connected to existing nodes, in order to aggregate information across the entire graph within a single GNN layer. Our proposed model incorporates virtual nodes by constructing a semi-adaptive adjacency matrix. This matrix integrates distance-based and adaptive adjacency matrices, allowing the model to leverage geographical information while also learning task-specific features from data. Experimental results demonstrate that the inclusion of virtual nodes significantly enhances long-term prediction accuracy while also improving layer-wise sensitivity to mitigate the over-squashing problem. Virtual nodes also offer enhanced explainability by focusing on key intersections and high-traffic areas, as shown by the visualization of their adjacency matrix weights on road network heat maps. Our advanced approach enhances the understanding and management of urban traffic systems, making it particularly well-suited for real-world applications.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

ITINERA: Integrating Spatial Optimization with Large Language Models for Open-domain Urban Itinerary Planning

Citywalk, a recently popular form of urban travel, requires genuine personalization and understanding of fine-grained requests compared to traditional itinerary planning. In this paper, we introduce the novel task of Open-domain Urban Itinerary Planning (OUIP), which generates personalized urban itineraries from user requests in natural language. We then present ITINERA, an OUIP system that integrates spatial optimization with large language models to provide customized urban itineraries based on user needs. This involves decomposing user requests, selecting candidate points of interest (POIs), ordering the POIs based on cluster-aware spatial optimization, and generating the itinerary. Experiments on real-world datasets and the performance of the deployed system demonstrate our system's capacity to deliver personalized and spatially coherent itineraries compared to current solutions. Source codes of ITINERA are available at https://github.com/YihongT/ITINERA.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2024

SAUC: Sparsity-Aware Uncertainty Calibration for Spatiotemporal Prediction with Graph Neural Networks

Quantifying uncertainty is crucial for robust and reliable predictions. However, existing spatiotemporal deep learning mostly focuses on deterministic prediction, overlooking the inherent uncertainty in such prediction. Particularly, highly-granular spatiotemporal datasets are often sparse, posing extra challenges in prediction and uncertainty quantification. To address these issues, this paper introduces a novel post-hoc Sparsity-awar Uncertainty Calibration (SAUC) framework, which calibrates uncertainty in both zero and non-zero values. To develop SAUC, we firstly modify the state-of-the-art deterministic spatiotemporal Graph Neural Networks (ST-GNNs) to probabilistic ones in the pre-calibration phase. Then we calibrate the probabilistic ST-GNNs for zero and non-zero values using quantile approaches.Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that SAUC can effectively fit the variance of sparse data and generalize across two real-world spatiotemporal datasets at various granularities. Specifically, our empirical experiments show a 20\% reduction in calibration errors in zero entries on the sparse traffic accident and urban crime prediction. Overall, this work demonstrates the theoretical and empirical values of the SAUC framework, thus bridging a significant gap between uncertainty quantification and spatiotemporal prediction.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Inferring Mobility of Care Travel Behavior From Transit Origin-Destination Data

There are substantial differences in travel behavior by gender on public transit. Studies have concluded that these differences are largely attributable to household responsibilities typically falling disproportionately on women, leading to women being more likely to utilize transit for purposes referred to by the umbrella concept of "mobility of care". In contrast to past studies that have quantified the impact of gender using survey and qualitative data, we propose a novel data-driven workflow utilizing a combination of previously developed origin, destination, and transfer inference (ODX) based on individual transit fare card transactions, name-based gender inference, and geospatial analysis as a framework to identify mobility of care trip making. We apply this framework to data from the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA). Analyzing data from millions of journeys conducted in the first quarter of 2019, the results of this study show that our proposed workflow can identify mobility of care travel behavior, detecting times and places of interest where the share of women travelers in an equally-sampled subset (on basis of inferred gender) of transit users is 10% - 15% higher than that of men. The workflow presented in this study provides a blueprint for combining transit origin-destination data, inferred customer demographics, and geospatial analyses enabling public transit agencies to assess, at the fare card level, the gendered impacts of different policy and operational decisions.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2024

Correlating Time Series with Interpretable Convolutional Kernels

This study addresses the problem of convolutional kernel learning in univariate, multivariate, and multidimensional time series data, which is crucial for interpreting temporal patterns in time series and supporting downstream machine learning tasks. First, we propose formulating convolutional kernel learning for univariate time series as a sparse regression problem with a non-negative constraint, leveraging the properties of circular convolution and circulant matrices. Second, to generalize this approach to multivariate and multidimensional time series data, we use tensor computations, reformulating the convolutional kernel learning problem in the form of tensors. This is further converted into a standard sparse regression problem through vectorization and tensor unfolding operations. In the proposed methodology, the optimization problem is addressed using the existing non-negative subspace pursuit method, enabling the convolutional kernel to capture temporal correlations and patterns. To evaluate the proposed model, we apply it to several real-world time series datasets. On the multidimensional rideshare and taxi trip data from New York City and Chicago, the convolutional kernels reveal interpretable local correlations and cyclical patterns, such as weekly seasonality. In the context of multidimensional fluid flow data, both local and nonlocal correlations captured by the convolutional kernels can reinforce tensor factorization, leading to performance improvements in fluid flow reconstruction tasks. Thus, this study lays an insightful foundation for automatically learning convolutional kernels from time series data, with an emphasis on interpretability through sparsity and non-negativity constraints.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Simulating the Integration of Urban Air Mobility into Existing Transportation Systems: A Survey

Urban air mobility (UAM) has the potential to revolutionize transportation in metropolitan areas, providing a new mode of transportation that could alleviate congestion and improve accessibility. However, the integration of UAM into existing transportation systems is a complex task that requires a thorough understanding of its impact on traffic flow and capacity. In this paper, we conduct a survey to investigate the current state of research on UAM in metropolitan-scale traffic using simulation techniques. We identify key challenges and opportunities for the integration of UAM into urban transportation systems, including impacts on existing traffic patterns and congestion; safety analysis and risk assessment; potential economic and environmental benefits; and the development of shared infrastructure and routes for UAM and ground-based transportation. We also discuss the potential benefits of UAM, such as reduced travel times and improved accessibility for underserved areas. Our survey provides a comprehensive overview of the current state of research on UAM in metropolitan-scale traffic using simulation and highlights key areas for future research and development.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2024

Advancing Transportation Mode Share Analysis with Built Environment: Deep Hybrid Models with Urban Road Network

Transportation mode share analysis is important to various real-world transportation tasks as it helps researchers understand the travel behaviors and choices of passengers. A typical example is the prediction of communities' travel mode share by accounting for their sociodemographics like age, income, etc., and travel modes' attributes (e.g. travel cost and time). However, there exist only limited efforts in integrating the structure of the urban built environment, e.g., road networks, into the mode share models to capture the impacts of the built environment. This task usually requires manual feature engineering or prior knowledge of the urban design features. In this study, we propose deep hybrid models (DHM), which directly combine road networks and sociodemographic features as inputs for travel mode share analysis. Using graph embedding (GE) techniques, we enhance travel demand models with a more powerful representation of urban structures. In experiments of mode share prediction in Chicago, results demonstrate that DHM can provide valuable spatial insights into the sociodemographic structure, improving the performance of travel demand models in estimating different mode shares at the city level. Specifically, DHM improves the results by more than 20\% while retaining the interpretation power of the choice models, demonstrating its superiority in interpretability, prediction accuracy, and geographical insights.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Design of Transit-Centric Multimodal Urban Mobility System with Autonomous Mobility-on-Demand

This paper addresses the pressing challenge of urban mobility in the context of growing urban populations, changing demand patterns for urban mobility, and emerging technologies like Mobility-on-Demand (MoD) platforms and Autonomous Vehicle (AV). As urban areas swell and demand pattern changes, the integration of Autonomous Mobility-on-Demand (AMoD) systems with existing public transit (PT) networks presents great opportunities to enhancing urban mobility. We propose a novel optimization framework for solving the Transit-Centric Multimodal Urban Mobility with Autonomous Mobility-on-Demand (TCMUM-AMoD) at scale. The system operator (public transit agency) determines the network design and frequency settings of the PT network, fleet sizing and allocations of AMoD system, and the pricing for using the multimodal system with the goal of minimizing passenger disutility. Passengers' mode and route choice behaviors are modeled explicitly using discrete choice models. A first-order approximation algorithm is introduced to solve the problem at scale. Using a case study in Chicago, we showcase the potential to optimize urban mobility across different demand scenarios. To our knowledge, ours is the first paper to jointly optimize transit network design, fleet sizing, and pricing for the multimodal mobility system while considering passengers' mode and route choices.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2024

Renal function changes in chronic hepatitis B patients

The best way to treat chronic hepatitis B is with pegylated interferon alone or with oral antiviral drugs. There is limited research comparing the renal safety of entecavir and tenofovir when used with pegylated interferon. This study will compare changes in renal function in chronic hepatitis B patients treated with pegylated interferon and either entecavir or tenofovir. The study included a cohort of 836 patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) who received treatment with pegylated interferon (IFN) either alone or in combination with entecavir (ETV) and tenofovir (TDF) between the years 2018 and 2021. Of these patients, 713 were included in a matched analysis comparing outcomes between those who were cured and those who were uncured, while 123 patients received IFN alone as a control group for comparison with the ETV and TDF treatment groups. The primary outcome measured was the change in renal function, specifically estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), cystatin C (CysC), and inorganic phosphorus (IPHOS). Patients were categorized into stage 1 or stage 2 based on a baseline eGFR of less than 90 ml/min/m^2 Results: 125 CHB patients were matched 1:1 in both the combined treatment and cured groups. Baseline eGFR, CysC, and IPHOS levels were similar between the groups. Renal function in stage 1 and stage 2 groups showed a decreasing trend at 48 weeks after an initial increase.Correlation analysis showed significant relationships between changes in ALT and eGFR values at 12 weeks in both non-cured and cured groups. Conclusions: Over the 48-week duration of combined treatment in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB), it was found that both Tenofovir Disoproxil Fumarate (TDF) and Entecavir (ETV) did not lead to an increase in renal injury.

q-bio.QM↗

arXiv2024

Uncertainty Quantification of Spatiotemporal Travel Demand with Probabilistic Graph Neural Networks

Recent studies have significantly improved the prediction accuracy of travel demand using graph neural networks. However, these studies largely ignored uncertainty that inevitably exists in travel demand prediction. To fill this gap, this study proposes a framework of probabilistic graph neural networks (Prob-GNN) to quantify the spatiotemporal uncertainty of travel demand. This Prob-GNN framework is substantiated by deterministic and probabilistic assumptions, and empirically applied to the task of predicting the transit and ridesharing demand in Chicago. We found that the probabilistic assumptions (e.g. distribution tail, support) have a greater impact on uncertainty prediction than the deterministic ones (e.g. deep modules, depth). Among the family of Prob-GNNs, the GNNs with truncated Gaussian and Laplace distributions achieve the highest performance in transit and ridesharing data. Even under significant domain shifts, Prob-GNNs can predict the ridership uncertainty in a stable manner, when the models are trained on pre-COVID data and tested across multiple periods during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Prob-GNNs also reveal the spatiotemporal pattern of uncertainty, which is concentrated on the afternoon peak hours and the areas with large travel volumes. Overall, our findings highlight the importance of incorporating randomness into deep learning for spatiotemporal ridership prediction. Future research should continue to investigate versatile probabilistic assumptions to capture behavioral randomness, and further develop methods to quantify uncertainty to build resilient cities.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Deep hybrid model with satellite imagery: how to combine demand modeling and computer vision for behavior analysis?

Classical demand modeling analyzes travel behavior using only low-dimensional numeric data (i.e. sociodemographics and travel attributes) but not high-dimensional urban imagery. However, travel behavior depends on the factors represented by both numeric data and urban imagery, thus necessitating a synergetic framework to combine them. This study creates a theoretical framework of deep hybrid models with a crossing structure consisting of a mixing operator and a behavioral predictor, thus integrating the numeric and imagery data into a latent space. Empirically, this framework is applied to analyze travel mode choice using the MyDailyTravel Survey from Chicago as the numeric inputs and the satellite images as the imagery inputs. We found that deep hybrid models outperform both the traditional demand models and the recent deep learning in predicting the aggregate and disaggregate travel behavior with our supervision-as-mixing design. The latent space in deep hybrid models can be interpreted, because it reveals meaningful spatial and social patterns. The deep hybrid models can also generate new urban images that do not exist in reality and interpret them with economic theory, such as computing substitution patterns and social welfare changes. Overall, the deep hybrid models demonstrate the complementarity between the low-dimensional numeric and high-dimensional imagery data and between the traditional demand modeling and recent deep learning. It generalizes the latent classes and variables in classical hybrid demand models to a latent space, and leverages the computational power of deep learning for imagery while retaining the economic interpretability on the microeconomics foundation.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Fairness-Enhancing Vehicle Rebalancing in the Ride-hailing System

The rapid growth of the ride-hailing industry has revolutionized urban transportation worldwide. Despite its benefits, equity concerns arise as underserved communities face limited accessibility to affordable ride-hailing services. A key issue in this context is the vehicle rebalancing problem, where idle vehicles are moved to areas with anticipated demand. Without equitable approaches in demand forecasting and rebalancing strategies, these practices can further deepen existing inequities. In the realm of ride-hailing, three main facets of fairness are recognized: algorithmic fairness, fairness to drivers, and fairness to riders. This paper focuses on enhancing both algorithmic and rider fairness through a novel vehicle rebalancing method. We introduce an approach that combines a Socio-Aware Spatial-Temporal Graph Convolutional Network (SA-STGCN) for refined demand prediction and a fairness-integrated Matching-Integrated Vehicle Rebalancing (MIVR) model for subsequent vehicle rebalancing. Our methodology is designed to reduce prediction discrepancies and ensure equitable service provision across diverse regions. The effectiveness of our system is evaluated using simulations based on real-world ride-hailing data. The results suggest that our proposed method enhances both accuracy and fairness in forecasting ride-hailing demand, ultimately resulting in more equitable vehicle rebalancing in subsequent operations. Specifically, the algorithm developed in this study effectively reduces the standard deviation and average customer wait times by 6.48% and 0.49%, respectively. This achievement signifies a beneficial outcome for ride-hailing platforms, striking a balance between operational efficiency and fairness.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

ST-GIN: An Uncertainty Quantification Approach in Traffic Data Imputation with Spatio-temporal Graph Attention and Bidirectional Recurrent United Neural Networks

Traffic data serves as a fundamental component in both research and applications within intelligent transportation systems. However, real-world transportation data, collected from loop detectors or similar sources, often contains missing values (MVs), which can adversely impact associated applications and research. Instead of discarding this incomplete data, researchers have sought to recover these missing values through numerical statistics, tensor decomposition, and deep learning techniques. In this paper, we propose an innovative deep learning approach for imputing missing data. A graph attention architecture is employed to capture the spatial correlations present in traffic data, while a bidirectional neural network is utilized to learn temporal information. Experimental results indicate that our proposed method outperforms all other benchmark techniques, thus demonstrating its effectiveness.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Reconstructing Transit Vehicle Trajectory Using High-Resolution GPS Data

High-resolution location ("heartbeat") data of transit fleet vehicles is a relatively new data source for many transit agencies. On its surface, the heartbeat data can provide a wealth of information about all operational details of a recorded transit vehicle trip, from its location trajectory to its speed and acceleration profiles. Previous studies have mainly focused on decomposing the total trip travel time into different components by vehicle state and then extracting measures of delays to draw conclusions on the performance of a transit route. This study delves into the task of reconstructing a complete, continuous and smooth transit vehicle trajectory from the heartbeat data that allows for the extraction of operational information of a bus at any point in time into its trip. Using only the latitude, longitude, and timestamp fields of the heartbeat data, the authors demonstrate that a continuous, smooth, and monotonic vehicle trajectory can be reconstructed using local regression in combination with monotonic cubic spline interpolation. The resultant trajectory can be used to evaluate transit performance and identify locations of bus delay near infrastructure such as traffic signals, pedestrian crossings, and bus stops.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2023

MetRoBERTa: Leveraging Traditional Customer Relationship Management Data to Develop a Transit-Topic-Aware Language Model

Transit riders' feedback provided in ridership surveys, customer relationship management (CRM) channels, and in more recent times, through social media is key for transit agencies to better gauge the efficacy of their services and initiatives. Getting a holistic understanding of riders' experience through the feedback shared in those instruments is often challenging, mostly due to the open-ended, unstructured nature of text feedback. In this paper, we propose leveraging traditional transit CRM feedback to develop and deploy a transit-topic-aware large language model (LLM) capable of classifying open-ended text feedback to relevant transit-specific topics. First, we utilize semi-supervised learning to engineer a training dataset of 11 broad transit topics detected in a corpus of 6 years of customer feedback provided to the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA). We then use this dataset to train and thoroughly evaluate a language model based on the RoBERTa architecture. We compare our LLM, MetRoBERTa, to classical machine learning approaches utilizing keyword-based and lexicon representations. Our model outperforms those methods across all evaluation metrics, providing an average topic classification accuracy of 90%. Finally, we provide a value proposition of this work demonstrating how the language model, alongside additional text processing tools, can be applied to add structure to open-ended text sources of feedback like Twitter. The framework and results we present provide a pathway for an automated, generalizable approach for ingesting, visualizing, and reporting transit riders' feedback at scale, enabling agencies to better understand and improve customer experience.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2023

The Braess Paradox in Dynamic Traffic

The Braess's Paradox (BP) is the observation that adding one or more roads to the existing road network will counter-intuitively increase traffic congestion and slow down the overall traffic flow. Previously, the existence of the BP is modeled using the static traffic assignment model, which solves for the user equilibrium subject to network flow conservation to find the equilibrium state and distributes all vehicles instantaneously. Such approach neglects the dynamic nature of real-world traffic, including vehicle behaviors and the interaction between vehicles and the infrastructure. As such, this article proposes a dynamic traffic network model and empirically validates the existence of the BP under dynamic traffic. In particular, we use microsimulation environment to study the impacts of an added path on a grid network. We explore how the network flow, vehicle travel time, and network capacity respond, as well as when the BP will occur.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2023

Dissolving the Segmentation of a Shared Mobility Market: A Framework and Four Market Structure Designs

In the governance of the shared mobility market of a city or of a metropolitan area, there are two conflicting principles: 1) the healthy competition between multiple platforms, such as between Uber and Lyft in the United States, and 2) economies of network scale, which leads to higher chances for trips to be matched, and thus higher operation efficiency, but which also implies monopoly. The current shared mobility markets, as observed in different cities in the world, are either monopolistic, or largely segmented by multiple platforms, the latter with significant efficiency loss. How to keep the competition between platforms, but to reduce the efficiency loss due to segmentation with new market designs is the focus of this paper. We first propose a theoretical framework of shared mobility market segmentation and then propose four market structure designs thereupon. The framework and four designs are first discussed as an abstract model, without losing generality, thus not constrained to any specific city. High-level perspectives and detailed mechanisms for each proposed market structure are both examined. Then, to assess the real-world performance of these market structure designs, we used a ride-sharing simulator with real-world ride-hailing trip data from New York City to simulate. The proposed market designs can reduce the total vehicle-miles traveled (VMT) by 6\% while serving more customers with 8.4\% fewer total number of trips. In the meantime, customers receive better services with on-average 5.4\% shorter waiting time. At the end of the paper, the feasibility of implementation for each proposed market structure is discussed.

math.OC↗

arXiv2023

The emerging spectrum of flexible work locations: implications for travel demand and carbon emissions

Many studies of the effect of remote work on travel demand assume that remote work takes place entirely at home. Recent evidence, however, shows that in the United States, remote workers are choosing to spend approximately one third of their remote work hours outside of the home at cafes, co-working spaces or the homes of friends and family. Commutes to these "third places" could offset much of the reduction in congestion and carbon emissions from commuting that could be expected from greater shares of remote work. To estimate the impact of third places on congestion and carbon emission from commuting, this study uses a national survey of thousands of remote workers and large-scale mobile trace data to predict current and future commuting patterns for the Chicago metropolitan area. The study reveals that ignoring third places leads to an underestimation of carbon emissions from commute-based travel demand by 470 gigatons per year, or 24% of the total true emissions. Moreover, if workers' latent desire for greater levels of remote work are realized in the future, the emissions benefits will be reduced further. The spatial analyses imply that there is a decrease in visits to the city center and outskirts, but an increase in visits to near suburban areas. Implications of these results for urban transportation and land use policy are discussed.

stat.AP↗