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Jinliang Deng

Publications and source records attributed to Jinliang Deng.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2026

Inferring Urban Mobility Interactions from Aggregated Dynamics

Real-time urban governance depends not only on knowing where people are, but on how they move between places, directional flows that could be conventionally resolved by tracking individuals through space, i.e., expensive to sustain and built on traces that are highly unique and readily re-identifiable. Here we show that this directional structure need not be observed to be known: aggregated counts which cities already collect retain enough information to reconstruct the temporal evolution of origin-destination (OD) matrix. Using an uncertainty-aware physics-informed framework, we infer future OD flows from area-level counts alone across twelve mobility datasets from cities in the United States and China, reaching accuracy comparable to models that take historical OD matrices as input. Probabilistic modeling corrects the systematic underestimation of sparse, high-value corridors and yields calibrated predictions consistent with observed flows. Architectures that respect the generation-before-assignment logic of transport planning recover interactions more faithfully, indicating that location-level spatial heterogeneity should be preserved before pairwise interactions are reconstructed. Because inference requires only aggregated observations after training, recovering interactions this way reduces reliance on continuous individual-level tracking, pointing toward a more deployable and less exposure-heavy basis for real-time urban intelligence.

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arXiv2026

A2TTA: Anchored-and-Agile Test-Time Adaptation for Evolving Traffic Sensor Networks

Traffic forecasting is important for efficient traffic management and route planning in smart cities. Existing traffic forecasting studies typically assume fixed sensor graphs, overlooking the continuous evolution of real-world traffic networks, e.g., ongoing road network construction and evolving human mobility patterns. These dynamic changes can substantially degrade conventional forecasting models, motivating test-time adaptation (TTA) to efficiently adapt pretrained models during deployment. However, applying TTA to evolving traffic sensor networks remains challenging in two aspects. First, topology expansion introduces new sensors and connections, continuously reshaping the sensor graph. Second, tem- poral shifts vary in time scale and stability, requiring differentiated adaptation to long-term and short-term shifts. In this study, we address these challenges by proposing A2TTA, an Anchored-and-Agile Test-Time Adaptation framework for evolving traffic sensor networks, which transforms topology-induced forecasting errors into an expandable output calibration problem and separates tem- poral adaptation into persistent global correction and agile context-specific specialization. By jointly addressing topology evolution and multi-scale temporal shifts, A2TTA enables efficient and robust adaptation to continuously evolving traffic environments. Extensive experiments on ten real-world traffic networks demonstrate that A2TTA consistently improves forecasting performance across different backbones, datasets, and prediction horizons. Our code is available in https://github.com/lixus7/A2TTA.

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arXiv2026

Failures Reveal What Metrics Miss: An Evidence-Driven Agent for Recursive Refinement of ECG Classifiers

Deep models have substantially advanced 12-lead ECG classification, yet their refinement still relies heavily on human experts to inspect failures and iteratively revise classifier designs. Recent LLM-based agents have demonstrated the potential for automated model design, but when guided only by aggregate performance metrics, they lack insight into why individual cases fail and how the classifier should be revised. We present RecursiveECG, an evidence-driven LLM-as-Designer framework in which an LLM serves as an offline model designer that refines ECG classifiers based on concrete failures and objective ECG evidence. To ground failure diagnosis in executable evidence, Criteria-to-Measurement Compilation converts curated ECG criteria into validated deterministic functions that produce reproducible, reference-backed measurements for individual ECGs. Building on these measurements, Evidence-Grounded Failure Review analyzes failed and comparator cases by jointly considering raw waveforms, measurements, and model outputs, enabling the LLM to diagnose classifier limitations and formulate targeted revisions. Candidate revisions are executed and re-evaluated under a fixed problem contract, and only evidence-supported updates are retained. The resulting predictor is frozen after refinement and requires no LLM inference during deployment, while an audit trail links each accepted revision to its supporting evidence. Across PTB-XL, Georgia, and CPSC2018, RecursiveECG consistently outperforms strong baselines, achieving an average relative improvement of 10.0%. Extensive ablation and transfer studies further validate the effectiveness of its evidence-grounded refinement process.

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arXiv2026

UPLOTS: A Unified Pretrained Language Model for Constrained Time-series Generation

In time-series generation, existing approaches typically handcraft ortrain a separate model for each dataset, which hinders their scalability and fails to leverage shared temporal structures across domains. To address this fragmentation, we propose UPLOTS, a Unified, Prompt-guided Language model framework fOr constrained Time-Series Generation across diverse domains. Instead of building task-specific models, UPLOTS leverages a single pre-trained transformer backbone guided by learned constraint prompts, enabling on-demand generation with precise pattern control. One key innovation is our dynamic multi-dataset loss re-weighting and prompt-to-pattern mapping, which allows UPLOTS to internalize diverse temporal structures during training and conditionally generate them at inference. We evaluate UPLOTS on four real-world benchmarks and multiple constraint settings, including peak-period, calendar, load-level, and volatility patterns. Additional held-out constraint-combination and downstream forecasting experiments further demonstrate that UPLOTS generalizes beyond the original peak-pattern setting and improves data augmentation under scarce real-data regimes. Our code and baselines are available at github repo: https://github.com/cruiseresearchgroup/UPLOTS.

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arXiv2026

From Text to Forecasts: Bridging Modality Gap with Temporal Evolution Semantic Space

Incorporating textual information into time-series forecasting holds promise for addressing event-driven non-stationarity; however, a fundamental modality gap hinders effective fusion: textual descriptions express temporal impacts implicitly and qualitatively, whereas forecasting models rely on explicit and quantitative signals. Through controlled semi-synthetic experiments, we show that existing methods over-attend to redundant tokens and struggle to reliably translate textual semantics into usable numerical cues. To bridge this gap, we propose TESS, which introduces a Temporal Evolution Semantic Space as an intermediate bottleneck between modalities. This space consists of interpretable, numerically grounded temporal primitives (mean shift, volatility, shape, and lag) extracted from text by an LLM via structured prompting and filtered through confidence-aware gating. Experiments on four real-world datasets demonstrate up to a 29 percent reduction in forecasting error compared to state-of-the-art unimodal and multimodal baselines. The code will be released after acceptance.

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arXiv2025

FAN: Fourier Analysis Networks

Despite the remarkable successes of general-purpose neural networks, such as MLPs and Transformers, we find that they exhibit notable shortcomings in modeling and reasoning about periodic phenomena, achieving only marginal performance within the training domain and failing to generalize effectively to out-of-domain (OOD) scenarios. Periodicity is ubiquitous throughout nature and science. Therefore, neural networks should be equipped with the essential ability to model and handle periodicity. In this work, we propose FAN, a novel neural network that effectively addresses periodicity modeling challenges while offering broad applicability similar to MLP with fewer parameters and FLOPs. Periodicity is naturally integrated into FAN's structure and computational processes by introducing the Fourier Principle. Unlike existing Fourier-based networks, which possess particular periodicity modeling abilities but face challenges in scaling to deeper networks and are typically designed for specific tasks, our approach overcomes this challenge to enable scaling to large-scale models and maintains general-purpose modeling capability. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate the superiority of FAN in periodicity modeling tasks and the effectiveness and generalizability of FAN across a range of real-world tasks. Moreover, we reveal that compared to existing Fourier-based networks, FAN accommodates both periodicity modeling and general-purpose modeling well.

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arXiv2025

Reasoning is Periodicity? Improving Large Language Models Through Effective Periodicity Modeling

Periodicity, as one of the most important basic characteristics, lays the foundation for facilitating structured knowledge acquisition and systematic cognitive processes within human learning paradigms. However, the potential flaws of periodicity modeling in Transformer affect the learning efficiency and establishment of underlying principles from data for large language models (LLMs) built upon it. In this paper, we demonstrate that integrating effective periodicity modeling can improve the learning efficiency and performance of LLMs. We introduce FANformer, which adapts Fourier Analysis Network (FAN) into attention mechanism to achieve efficient periodicity modeling, by modifying the feature projection process of attention mechanism. Extensive experimental results on language modeling show that FANformer consistently outperforms Transformer when scaling up model size and training tokens, underscoring its superior learning efficiency. Our pretrained FANformer-1B exhibits marked improvements on downstream tasks compared to open-source LLMs with similar model parameters or training tokens. Moreover, we reveal that FANformer exhibits superior ability to learn and apply rules for reasoning compared to Transformer. The results position FANformer as an effective and promising architecture for advancing LLMs.

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arXiv2025

PhaseFormer: From Patches to Phases for Efficient and Effective Time Series Forecasting

Periodicity is a fundamental characteristic of time series data and has long played a central role in forecasting. Recent deep learning methods strengthen the exploitation of periodicity by treating patches as basic tokens, thereby improving predictive effectiveness. However, their efficiency remains a bottleneck due to large parameter counts and heavy computational costs. This paper provides, for the first time, a clear explanation of why patch-level processing is inherently inefficient, supported by strong evidence from real-world data. To address these limitations, we introduce a phase perspective for modeling periodicity and present an efficient yet effective solution, PhaseFormer. PhaseFormer features phase-wise prediction through compact phase embeddings and efficient cross-phase interaction enabled by a lightweight routing mechanism. Extensive experiments demonstrate that PhaseFormer achieves state-of-the-art performance with around 1k parameters, consistently across benchmark datasets. Notably, it excels on large-scale and complex datasets, where models with comparable efficiency often struggle. This work marks a significant step toward truly efficient and effective time series forecasting. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/neumyor/PhaseFormer_TSL

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arXiv2025

Accurate and Efficient Multivariate Time Series Forecasting via Offline Clustering

Accurate and efficient multivariate time series (MTS) forecasting is essential for applications such as traffic management and weather prediction, which depend on capturing long-range temporal dependencies and interactions between entities. Existing methods, particularly those based on Transformer architectures, compute pairwise dependencies across all time steps, leading to a computational complexity that scales quadratically with the length of the input. To overcome these challenges, we introduce the Forecaster with Offline Clustering Using Segments (FOCUS), a novel approach to MTS forecasting that simplifies long-range dependency modeling through the use of prototypes extracted via offline clustering. These prototypes encapsulate high-level events in the real-world system underlying the data, summarizing the key characteristics of similar time segments. In the online phase, FOCUS dynamically adapts these patterns to the current input and captures dependencies between the input segment and high-level events, enabling both accurate and efficient forecasting. By identifying prototypes during the offline clustering phase, FOCUS reduces the computational complexity of modeling long-range dependencies in the online phase to linear scaling. Extensive experiments across diverse benchmarks demonstrate that FOCUS achieves state-of-the-art accuracy while significantly reducing computational costs.

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arXiv2025

AutoSTF: Decoupled Neural Architecture Search for Cost-Effective Automated Spatio-Temporal Forecasting

Spatio-temporal forecasting is a critical component of various smart city applications, such as transportation optimization, energy management, and socio-economic analysis. Recently, several automated spatio-temporal forecasting methods have been proposed to automatically search the optimal neural network architecture for capturing complex spatio-temporal dependencies. However, the existing automated approaches suffer from expensive neural architecture search overhead, which hinders their practical use and the further exploration of diverse spatio-temporal operators in a finer granularity. In this paper, we propose AutoSTF, a decoupled automatic neural architecture search framework for cost-effective automated spatio-temporal forecasting. From the efficiency perspective, we first decouple the mixed search space into temporal space and spatial space and respectively devise representation compression and parameter-sharing schemes to mitigate the parameter explosion. The decoupled spatio-temporal search not only expedites the model optimization process but also leaves new room for more effective spatio-temporal dependency modeling. From the effectiveness perspective, we propose a multi-patch transfer module to jointly capture multi-granularity temporal dependencies and extend the spatial search space to enable finer-grained layer-wise spatial dependency search. Extensive experiments on eight datasets demonstrate the superiority of AutoSTF in terms of both accuracy and efficiency. Specifically, our proposed method achieves up to 13.48x speed-up compared to state-of-the-art automatic spatio-temporal forecasting methods while maintaining the best forecasting accuracy.

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arXiv2024

Parsimony or Capability? Decomposition Delivers Both in Long-term Time Series Forecasting

Long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) represents a critical frontier in time series analysis, characterized by extensive input sequences, as opposed to the shorter spans typical of traditional approaches. While longer sequences inherently offer richer information for enhanced predictive precision, prevailing studies often respond by escalating model complexity. These intricate models can inflate into millions of parameters, resulting in prohibitive parameter scales. Our study demonstrates, through both analytical and empirical evidence, that decomposition is key to containing excessive model inflation while achieving uniformly superior and robust results across various datasets. Remarkably, by tailoring decomposition to the intrinsic dynamics of time series data, our proposed model outperforms existing benchmarks, using over 99 \% fewer parameters than the majority of competing methods. Through this work, we aim to unleash the power of a restricted set of parameters by capitalizing on domain characteristics--a timely reminder that in the realm of LTSF, bigger is not invariably better.

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arXiv2024

Enhancing Spatio-temporal Quantile Forecasting with Curriculum Learning: Lessons Learned

Training models on spatio-temporal (ST) data poses an open problem due to the complicated and diverse nature of the data itself, and it is challenging to ensure the model's performance directly trained on the original ST data. While limiting the variety of training data can make training easier, it can also lead to a lack of knowledge and information for the model, resulting in a decrease in performance. To address this challenge, we presented an innovative paradigm that incorporates three separate forms of curriculum learning specifically targeting from spatial, temporal, and quantile perspectives. Furthermore, our framework incorporates a stacking fusion module to combine diverse information from three types of curriculum learning, resulting in a strong and thorough learning process. We demonstrated the effectiveness of this framework with extensive empirical evaluations, highlighting its better performance in addressing complex ST challenges. We provided thorough ablation studies to investigate the effectiveness of our curriculum and to explain how it contributes to the improvement of learning efficiency on ST data.

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arXiv2024

Heterogeneity-Informed Meta-Parameter Learning for Spatiotemporal Time Series Forecasting

Spatiotemporal time series forecasting plays a key role in a wide range of real-world applications. While significant progress has been made in this area, fully capturing and leveraging spatiotemporal heterogeneity remains a fundamental challenge. Therefore, we propose a novel Heterogeneity-Informed Meta-Parameter Learning scheme. Specifically, our approach implicitly captures spatiotemporal heterogeneity through learning spatial and temporal embeddings, which can be viewed as a clustering process. Then, a novel spatiotemporal meta-parameter learning paradigm is proposed to learn spatiotemporal-specific parameters from meta-parameter pools, which is informed by the captured heterogeneity. Based on these ideas, we develop a Heterogeneity-Informed Spatiotemporal Meta-Network (HimNet) for spatiotemporal time series forecasting. Extensive experiments on five widely-used benchmarks demonstrate our method achieves state-of-the-art performance while exhibiting superior interpretability. Our code is available at https://github.com/XDZhelheim/HimNet.

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arXiv2024

Spatial-Temporal-Decoupled Masked Pre-training for Spatiotemporal Forecasting

Spatiotemporal forecasting techniques are significant for various domains such as transportation, energy, and weather. Accurate prediction of spatiotemporal series remains challenging due to the complex spatiotemporal heterogeneity. In particular, current end-to-end models are limited by input length and thus often fall into spatiotemporal mirage, i.e., similar input time series followed by dissimilar future values and vice versa. To address these problems, we propose a novel self-supervised pre-training framework Spatial-Temporal-Decoupled Masked Pre-training (STD-MAE) that employs two decoupled masked autoencoders to reconstruct spatiotemporal series along the spatial and temporal dimensions. Rich-context representations learned through such reconstruction could be seamlessly integrated by downstream predictors with arbitrary architectures to augment their performances. A series of quantitative and qualitative evaluations on six widely used benchmarks (PEMS03, PEMS04, PEMS07, PEMS08, METR-LA, and PEMS-BAY) are conducted to validate the state-of-the-art performance of STD-MAE. Codes are available at https://github.com/Jimmy-7664/STD-MAE.

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arXiv2024

Disentangling Structured Components: Towards Adaptive, Interpretable and Scalable Time Series Forecasting

Multivariate time-series (MTS) forecasting is a paramount and fundamental problem in many real-world applications. The core issue in MTS forecasting is how to effectively model complex spatial-temporal patterns. In this paper, we develop a adaptive, interpretable and scalable forecasting framework, which seeks to individually model each component of the spatial-temporal patterns. We name this framework SCNN, as an acronym of Structured Component-based Neural Network. SCNN works with a pre-defined generative process of MTS, which arithmetically characterizes the latent structure of the spatial-temporal patterns. In line with its reverse process, SCNN decouples MTS data into structured and heterogeneous components and then respectively extrapolates the evolution of these components, the dynamics of which are more traceable and predictable than the original MTS. Extensive experiments are conducted to demonstrate that SCNN can achieve superior performance over state-of-the-art models on three real-world datasets. Additionally, we examine SCNN with different configurations and perform in-depth analyses of the properties of SCNN.

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arXiv2023

STAEformer: Spatio-Temporal Adaptive Embedding Makes Vanilla Transformer SOTA for Traffic Forecasting

With the rapid development of the Intelligent Transportation System (ITS), accurate traffic forecasting has emerged as a critical challenge. The key bottleneck lies in capturing the intricate spatio-temporal traffic patterns. In recent years, numerous neural networks with complicated architectures have been proposed to address this issue. However, the advancements in network architectures have encountered diminishing performance gains. In this study, we present a novel component called spatio-temporal adaptive embedding that can yield outstanding results with vanilla transformers. Our proposed Spatio-Temporal Adaptive Embedding transformer (STAEformer) achieves state-of-the-art performance on five real-world traffic forecasting datasets. Further experiments demonstrate that spatio-temporal adaptive embedding plays a crucial role in traffic forecasting by effectively capturing intrinsic spatio-temporal relations and chronological information in traffic time series.

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arXiv2023

Learning Gaussian Mixture Representations for Tensor Time Series Forecasting

Tensor time series (TTS) data, a generalization of one-dimensional time series on a high-dimensional space, is ubiquitous in real-world scenarios, especially in monitoring systems involving multi-source spatio-temporal data (e.g., transportation demands and air pollutants). Compared to modeling time series or multivariate time series, which has received much attention and achieved tremendous progress in recent years, tensor time series has been paid less effort. Properly coping with the tensor time series is a much more challenging task, due to its high-dimensional and complex inner structure. In this paper, we develop a novel TTS forecasting framework, which seeks to individually model each heterogeneity component implied in the time, the location, and the source variables. We name this framework as GMRL, short for Gaussian Mixture Representation Learning. Experiment results on two real-world TTS datasets verify the superiority of our approach compared with the state-of-the-art baselines. Code and data are published on https://github.com/beginner-sketch/GMRL.

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arXiv2023

Gotta: Generative Few-shot Question Answering by Prompt-based Cloze Data Augmentation

Few-shot question answering (QA) aims at precisely discovering answers to a set of questions from context passages while only a few training samples are available. Although existing studies have made some progress and can usually achieve proper results, they suffer from understanding deep semantics for reasoning out the questions. In this paper, we develop Gotta, a Generative prOmpT-based daTa Augmentation framework to mitigate the challenge above. Inspired by the human reasoning process, we propose to integrate the cloze task to enhance few-shot QA learning. Following the recent success of prompt-tuning, we present the cloze task in the same format as the main QA task, allowing the model to learn both tasks seamlessly together to fully take advantage of the power of prompt-tuning. Extensive experiments on widely used benchmarks demonstrate that Gotta consistently outperforms competitive baselines, validating the effectiveness of our proposed prompt-tuning-based cloze task, which not only fine-tunes language models but also learns to guide reasoning in QA tasks. Further analysis shows that the prompt-based loss incorporates the auxiliary task better than the multi-task loss, highlighting the strength of prompt-tuning on the few-shot QA task.

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