arXiv subjects

Jiuyong Li

Publications and source records attributed to Jiuyong Li.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

WISE: A Lightweight, Weakly-Supervised Model for Onboard Fire Smoke Detection and Localization

Wildfire smoke detection from satellite imagery is critical for early warning and rapid response. For onboard satellite deployment, detection systems must operate under strict memory and latency constraints while providing spatially informative outputs for downstream decision-making. Existing tile-level classification methods are computationally efficient but lack spatial localization, whereas pixel-level segmentation approaches provide detailed masks yet are typically too computationally demanding for real-time onboard execution. To address this gap, we propose WISE (Weakly-supervised Inference-efficient Smoke Extraction), a deployment-oriented framework for onboard fire smoke detection and localization. WISE leverages only tile-level annotations through a teacher-student distillation strategy, where an offline teacher provides soft spatial supervision to a lightweight WISE-Student optimized for efficient onboard inference. The student jointly predicts tile-level smoke presence and smoke probability maps within a single forward pass, enabling spatially informative detection under strict computational constraints. WISE was evaluated through in-orbit execution aboard the ISS-mounted IMAGIN-e payload. Three model variants achieve average inference times of 0.10 s, 0.14 s, and 0.26 s per tile, indicating near-real-time per-tile inference within onboard resource limits. Ground-based experiments on Landsat 5 and Landsat 8 imagery further indicate effective detection and spatially informative localization. The best-performing variant achieves a mean tile-level F1 score of 0.964 and a mean pixel-level F1 score of 0.750 across 10 runs, while containing only 0.12M parameters and requiring approximately 3 GFLOPs. Together, these results indicate that WISE is a practical candidate for low-latency wildfire smoke monitoring from space under onboard resource constraints.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2026

Transportable Causal Effect Estimation across Networks under Interference

Estimating causal effects under network interference typically assumes that the network used for training and the network used for deployment coincide. In practice, an intervention is run on one population while the question of interest concerns a different population, and the two generally differ in topology, node-covariate composition, and spillover pathways. Transporting a causal effect across networks is therefore a data-fusion problem that no existing algorithm solves. We employ a selection diagram, extended to the network setting so that covariate shift and structural network shift enter as separate selectors, and derive from it a transport formula for the direct, spillover, and total effects in the deployment population. Each formula makes explicit which interventional mechanism is assumed invariant and which observational distribution must be reweighted. We then turn the formulas into TranCE (Transported Causal Effects), a doubly-robust algorithm combining an interventional outcome model, a domain density-ratio correction, and cross-fitted inference. Extensive experiments on two semi-synthetic benchmarks derived from real-world social networks and on a fully real weather-insurance field experiment, where the transported effects are checked against held-out randomized estimates, confirm the effectiveness of our approach. Our findings have the potential to improve intervention strategies in networked systems, particularly in social networks and public health.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Residual-Guided Multi-Resolution Refinement of Foundation Models: A Case Study in Drought Forecasting

Regional climate prediction presents unique challenges for time series foundation models, which typically process temporal patterns through single-pass inference. Expert climatologists, in contrast, employ multi-scale temporal analysis and iterative refinement based on systematic error diagnosis. We present RGMR (Residual-Guided Multi-Resolution Refinement), an inference-time framework that adapts pre-trained foundation models to perform structured coarse-to-fine refinement for climate forecasting without updating backbone parameters. Applied to drought forecasting using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), RGMR is architecture-agnostic across the three TSFM backbones evaluated per site (TimesFM, TimeGPT, TabPFN) and consistently lowers test-set MSE on three South Australian sites and three additional regions outside South Australia. Applied to TimesFM, the wrapper reduces one-month-ahead SPEI MSE by up to 18.9\% across the three South Australian sites (mean reduction $\approx$18.7\%). Overall, RGMR provides a practical route for deploying frozen TSFMs in regional climate forecasting workflows.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Lightweight Wrappers for Adapting Time Series Foundation Models to Regional Drought Forecasting

Large \emph{Time Series Foundation Models} (TSFMs) demonstrate strong zero-shot forecasting capabilities across diverse domains. However, their application to regional climate forecasting faces practical challenges: model weights are often proprietary, local training records are limited, and computational budgets are constrained, making traditional fine-tuning approaches infeasible. To address these constraints, we introduce a lightweight, black-box adaptation framework (requiring no access to backbone parameters and no backbone fine-tuning) that enhances frozen TSFMs at inference time through two plug-and-play wrappers: \textbf{SMR\textsuperscript{2}} (Stationarity aware multi-resolution Residual), which decomposes the input into multi-resolution temporal views, learns stride specific residual corrections that capture regional dynamics, then adaptively ensembles them into a single forecast, and \textbf{MBB} (Moving Block Bootstrap), which preserves temporal dependencies through block resampling and ensembles over temporally coherent residual perturbations to stabilize the point forecast. Both wrappers instantiate the same bagging style principle: they build diverse views of the input or its residuals, forecast each with the same frozen backbone, and aggregate, so all adaptation comes from inference time ensembling rather than any weight update. Evaluated on one month ahead Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) prediction across multiple sites in South Australia, our framework consistently improves forecasting performance across several backbone models, demonstrating up to 26\% mean squared error (MSE) reduction over the corresponding frozen backbone while enabling practical deployment in resource constrained regional forecasting systems.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

uLEAD-TabPFN: Uncertainty-aware Dependency-based Anomaly Detection with TabPFN

Anomaly detection in tabular data is challenging due to high dimensionality, complex feature dependencies, and heterogeneous noise. Many existing methods rely on proximity-based cues and may miss anomalies caused by violations of complex feature dependencies. Dependency-based anomaly detection provides a principled alternative by identifying anomalies as violations of dependencies among features. However, existing methods often struggle to model such dependencies robustly and to scale to high-dimensional data with complex dependency structures. To address these challenges, we propose uLEAD-TabPFN, a dependency-based anomaly detection framework built on Prior-Data Fitted Networks (PFNs). uLEAD-TabPFN identifies anomalies as violations of conditional dependencies in a learned latent space, leveraging frozen PFNs for dependency estimation. Combined with uncertainty-aware scoring, the proposed framework enables robust and scalable anomaly detection. Experiments on 57 tabular datasets from ADBench show that uLEAD-TabPFN achieves particularly strong performance in medium- and high-dimensional settings, where it attains the top average rank. On high-dimensional datasets, uLEAD-TabPFN improves the average ROC-AUC by nearly 20\% over the average baseline and by approximately 2.8\% over the best-performing baseline, while maintaining overall superior performance compared to state-of-the-art methods. Further analysis shows that uLEAD-TabPFN provides complementary anomaly detection capability, achieving strong performance on datasets where many existing methods struggle.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Identifying the Group to Intervene on to Maximise Effect Under Cross-Group Interference

In many networked systems, interventions applied to one group of units can induce substantial causal effects on another group through cross-group interference pathways. Despite its practical importance in domains such as public health, digital marketing, and social policy, the problem of identifying which intervention subset in a source group maximizes the benefit on a target group remains largely unaddressed. We formalize this problem as cross-group causal influence estimation and introduce the core-to-group causal effect (Co2G), a formally defined causal estimand that quantifies the contrast in target-group outcomes under intervention versus non-intervention on a candidate source subset. We establish the nonparametric identifiability of Co2G from observational network data using do-calculus under standard causal assumptions, and develop a graph neural network-based estimator that captures cross-group interference patterns. To navigate the combinatorial search space of candidate subsets, we propose CauMax, an uncertainty-aware causal effect maximization framework with two scalable selection algorithms: (i)CauMax-G, an iterative greedy search with Monte Carlo dropout--based lower confidence bounds, and (ii)CauMax-D, a differentiable gradient-based optimization via Gumbel-Softmax relaxation. Extensive experiments on two real-world social networks demonstrate that CauMax achieves an order-of-magnitude reduction in regret compared with structural heuristics and diffusion-based baselines, and that moderate uncertainty penalization consistently improves subset selection quality.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2026

Disentangled Instrumental Variables for Causal Inference with Networked Observational Data

Instrumental variables (IVs) are crucial for addressing unobservable confounders, yet their stringent exogeneity assumptions pose significant challenges in networked data. Existing methods typically rely on modelling neighbour information when recovering IVs, thereby inevitably mixing shared environment-induced endogenous correlations and individual-specific exogenous variation, leading the resulting IVs to inherit dependence on unobserved confounders and to violate exogeneity. To overcome this challenge, we propose $\underline{Dis}$entangled $\underline{I}$nstrumental $\underline{V}$ariables (DisIV) framework, a novel method for causal inference based on networked observational data with latent confounders. DisIV exploits network homogeneity as an inductive bias and employs a structural disentanglement mechanism to extract individual-specific components that serve as latent IVs. The causal validity of the extracted IVs is constrained through explicit orthogonality and exclusion conditions. Extensive semi-synthetic experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that DisIV consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in causal effect estimation under network-induced confounding.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

From Correlation to Causation: Max-Pooling-Based Multi-Instance Learning Leads to More Robust Whole Slide Image Classification

In whole slide images (WSIs) analysis, attention-based multi-instance learning (MIL) models are susceptible to spurious correlations and degrade under domain shift. These methods may assign high attention weights to non-tumor regions, such as staining biases or artifacts, leading to unreliable tumor region localization. In this paper, we revisit max-pooling-based MIL methods from a causal perspective. Under mild assumptions, our theoretical results demonstrate that max-pooling encourages the model to focus on causal factors while ignoring bias-related factors. Furthermore, we discover that existing max-pooling-based methods may overfit the training set through rote memorization of instance features and fail to learn meaningful patterns. To address these issues, we propose FocusMIL, which couples max-pooling with an instance-level variational information bottleneck (VIB) to learn compact, predictive latent representations, and employs a multi-bag mini-batch scheme to stabilize optimization. We conduct comprehensive experiments on three real-world datasets and one semi-synthetic dataset. The results show that, by capturing causal factors, FocusMIL exhibits significant advantages in out-of-distribution scenarios and instance-level tumor region localization tasks.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2025

Learning Fair Graph Representations with Multi-view Information Bottleneck

Graph neural networks (GNNs) excel on relational data by passing messages over node features and structure, but they can amplify training data biases, propagating discriminatory attributes and structural imbalances into unfair outcomes. Many fairness methods treat bias as a single source, ignoring distinct attribute and structure effects and leading to suboptimal fairness and utility trade-offs. To overcome this challenge, we propose FairMIB, a multi-view information bottleneck framework designed to decompose graphs into feature, structural, and diffusion views for mitigating complexity biases in GNNs. Especially, the proposed FairMIB employs contrastive learning to maximize cross-view mutual information for bias-free representation learning. It further integrates multi-perspective conditional information bottleneck objectives to balance task utility and fairness by minimizing mutual information with sensitive attributes. Additionally, FairMIB introduces an inverse probability-weighted (IPW) adjacency correction in the diffusion view, which reduces the spread of bias propagation during message passing. Experiments on five real-world benchmark datasets demonstrate that FairMIB achieves state-of-the-art performance across both utility and fairness metrics.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

From Noise to Precision: A Diffusion-Driven Approach to Zero-Inflated Precipitation Prediction

Zero-inflated data pose significant challenges in precipitation forecasting due to the predominance of zeros with sparse non-zero events. To address this, we propose the Zero Inflation Diffusion Framework (ZIDF), which integrates Gaussian perturbation for smoothing zero-inflated distributions, Transformer-based prediction for capturing temporal patterns, and diffusion-based denoising to restore the original data structure. In our experiments, we use observational precipitation data collected from South Australia along with synthetically generated zero-inflated data. Results show that ZIDF demonstrates significant performance improvements over multiple state-of-the-art precipitation forecasting models, achieving up to 56.7\% reduction in MSE and 21.1\% reduction in MAE relative to the baseline Non-stationary Transformer. These findings highlight ZIDF's ability to robustly handle sparse time series data and suggest its potential generalizability to other domains where zero inflation is a key challenge.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Interaction-Data-guided Conditional Instrumental Variables for Debiasing Recommender Systems

It is often challenging to identify a valid instrumental variable (IV), although the IV methods have been regarded as effective tools of addressing the confounding bias introduced by latent variables. To deal with this issue, an Interaction-Data-guided Conditional IV (IDCIV) debiasing method is proposed for Recommender Systems, called IDCIV-RS. The IDCIV-RS automatically generates the representations of valid CIVs and their corresponding conditioning sets directly from interaction data, significantly reducing the complexity of IV selection while effectively mitigating the confounding bias caused by latent variables in recommender systems. Specifically, the IDCIV-RS leverages a variational autoencoder (VAE) to learn both the CIV representations and their conditioning sets from interaction data, followed by the application of least squares to derive causal representations for click prediction. Extensive experiments on two real-world datasets, Movielens-10M and Douban-Movie, demonstrate that IDCIV-RS successfully learns the representations of valid CIVs, effectively reduces bias, and consequently improves recommendation accuracy.

cs.IR↗

arXiv2025

Peer Effect Estimation in the Presence of Simultaneous Feedback and Unobserved Confounders

Estimating peer causal effects within complex real-world networks such as social networks is challenging, primarily due to simultaneous feedback between peers and unobserved confounders. Existing methods either address unobserved confounders while ignoring the simultaneous feedback, or account for feedback but under restrictive linear assumptions, thus failing to obtain accurate peer effect estimation. In this paper, we propose DIG2RSI, a novel Deep learning framework which leverages I-G transformation (matrix operation) and 2SRI (an instrumental variable or IV technique) to address both simultaneous feedback and unobserved confounding, while accommodating complex, nonlinear and high-dimensional relationships. DIG2RSI first applies the I-G transformation to disentangle mutual peer influences and eliminate the bias due to the simultaneous feedback. To deal with unobserved confounding, we first construct valid IVs from network data. In stage 1 of 2RSI, we train a neural network on these IVs to predict peer exposure, and extract residuals as proxies for the unobserved confounders. In the stage 2, we fit a separate neural network augmented by an adversarial discriminator that incorporates these residuals as a control function and enforces the learned representation to contain no residual confounding signal. The expressive power of deep learning models in capturing complex non-linear relationships and adversarial debiasing enhances the effectiveness of DIG2RSI in eliminating bias from both feedback loops and hidden confounders. We prove consistency of our estimator under standard regularity conditions, ensuring asymptotic recovery of the true peer effect. Empirical results on two semi-synthetic benchmarks and a real-world dataset demonstrate that DIG2RSI outperforms existing approaches.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Deconfounding Multi-Cause Latent Confounders: A Factor-Model Approach to Climate Model Bias Correction

Global Climate Models (GCMs) are crucial for predicting future climate changes by simulating the Earth systems. However, the GCM Outputs exhibit systematic biases due to model uncertainties, parameterization simplifications, and inadequate representation of complex climate phenomena. Traditional bias correction methods, which rely on historical observation data and statistical techniques, often neglect unobserved confounders, leading to biased results. This paper proposes a novel bias correction approach to utilize both GCM and observational data to learn a factor model that captures multi-cause latent confounders. Inspired by recent advances in causality based time series deconfounding, our method first constructs a factor model to learn latent confounders from historical data and then applies them to enhance the bias correction process using advanced time series forecasting models. The experimental results demonstrate significant improvements in the accuracy of precipitation outputs. By addressing unobserved confounders, our approach offers a robust and theoretically grounded solution for climate model bias correction.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

A Novel Generative Model with Causality Constraint for Mitigating Biases in Recommender Systems

Accurately predicting counterfactual user feedback is essential for building effective recommender systems. However, latent confounding bias can obscure the true causal relationship between user feedback and item exposure, ultimately degrading recommendation performance. Existing causal debiasing approaches often rely on strong assumptions-such as the availability of instrumental variables (IVs) or strong correlations between latent confounders and proxy variables-that are rarely satisfied in real-world scenarios. To address these limitations, we propose a novel generative framework called Latent Causality Constraints for Debiasing representation learning in Recommender Systems (LCDR). Specifically, LCDR leverages an identifiable Variational Autoencoder (iVAE) as a causal constraint to align the latent representations learned by a standard Variational Autoencoder (VAE) through a unified loss function. This alignment allows the model to leverage even weak or noisy proxy variables to recover latent confounders effectively. The resulting representations are then used to improve recommendation performance. Extensive experiments on three real-world datasets demonstrate that LCDR consistently outperforms existing methods in both mitigating bias and improving recommendation accuracy.

cs.IR↗

arXiv2025

Mitigating Propensity Bias of Large Language Models for Recommender Systems

The rapid development of Large Language Models (LLMs) creates new opportunities for recommender systems, especially by exploiting the side information (e.g., descriptions and analyses of items) generated by these models. However, aligning this side information with collaborative information from historical interactions poses significant challenges. The inherent biases within LLMs can skew recommendations, resulting in distorted and potentially unfair user experiences. On the other hand, propensity bias causes side information to be aligned in such a way that it often tends to represent all inputs in a low-dimensional subspace, leading to a phenomenon known as dimensional collapse, which severely restricts the recommender system's ability to capture user preferences and behaviours. To address these issues, we introduce a novel framework named Counterfactual LLM Recommendation (CLLMR). Specifically, we propose a spectrum-based side information encoder that implicitly embeds structural information from historical interactions into the side information representation, thereby circumventing the risk of dimension collapse. Furthermore, our CLLMR approach explores the causal relationships inherent in LLM-based recommender systems. By leveraging counterfactual inference, we counteract the biases introduced by LLMs. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our CLLMR approach consistently enhances the performance of various recommender models.

cs.IR↗

arXiv2025

Causal Learner: A Toolbox for Causal Structure and Markov Blanket Learning

Causal Learner is a toolbox for learning causal structure and Markov blanket (MB) from data. It integrates functions for generating simulated Bayesian network data, a set of state-of-the-art global causal structure learning algorithms, a set of state-of-the-art local causal structure learning algorithms, a set of state-of-the-art MB learning algorithms, and functions for evaluating algorithms. The data generation part of Causal Learner is written in R, and the rest of Causal Learner is written in MATLAB. Causal Learner aims to provide researchers and practitioners with an open-source platform for causal learning from data and for the development and evaluation of new causal learning algorithms. The Causal Learner project is available at http://bigdata.ahu.edu.cn/causal-learner.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Counterfactual Samples Constructing and Training for Commonsense Statements Estimation

Plausibility Estimation (PE) plays a crucial role for enabling language models to objectively comprehend the real world. While large language models (LLMs) demonstrate remarkable capabilities in PE tasks but sometimes produce trivial commonsense errors due to the complexity of commonsense knowledge. They lack two key traits of an ideal PE model: a) Language-explainable: relying on critical word segments for decisions, and b) Commonsense-sensitive: detecting subtle linguistic variations in commonsense. To address these issues, we propose a novel model-agnostic method, referred to as Commonsense Counterfactual Samples Generating (CCSG). By training PE models with CCSG, we encourage them to focus on critical words, thereby enhancing both their language-explainable and commonsense-sensitive capabilities. Specifically, CCSG generates counterfactual samples by strategically replacing key words and introducing low-level dropout within sentences. These counterfactual samples are then incorporated into a sentence-level contrastive training framework to further enhance the model's learning process. Experimental results across nine diverse datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of CCSG in addressing commonsense reasoning challenges, with our CCSG method showing 3.07% improvement against the SOTA methods.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

Disentangled Representation Learning for Causal Inference with Instruments

Latent confounders are a fundamental challenge for inferring causal effects from observational data. The instrumental variable (IV) approach is a practical way to address this challenge. Existing IV based estimators need a known IV or other strong assumptions, such as the existence of two or more IVs in the system, which limits the application of the IV approach. In this paper, we consider a relaxed requirement, which assumes there is an IV proxy in the system without knowing which variable is the proxy. We propose a Variational AutoEncoder (VAE) based disentangled representation learning method to learn an IV representation from a dataset with latent confounders and then utilise the IV representation to obtain an unbiased estimation of the causal effect from the data. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world data have demonstrated that the proposed algorithm outperforms the existing IV based estimators and VAE-based estimators.

cs.LG↗