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Jiuyong Li

Publications and source records attributed to Jiuyong Li.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources
arXiv2023

Data-Driven Causal Effect Estimation Based on Graphical Causal Modelling: A Survey

In many fields of scientific research and real-world applications, unbiased estimation of causal effects from non-experimental data is crucial for understanding the mechanism underlying the data and for decision-making on effective responses or interventions. A great deal of research has been conducted to address this challenging problem from different angles. For estimating causal effect in observational data, assumptions such as Markov condition, faithfulness and causal sufficiency are always made. Under the assumptions, full knowledge such as, a set of covariates or an underlying causal graph, is typically required. A practical challenge is that in many applications, no such full knowledge or only some partial knowledge is available. In recent years, research has emerged to use search strategies based on graphical causal modelling to discover useful knowledge from data for causal effect estimation, with some mild assumptions, and has shown promise in tackling the practical challenge. In this survey, we review these data-driven methods on causal effect estimation for a single treatment with a single outcome of interest and focus on the challenges faced by data-driven causal effect estimation. We concisely summarise the basic concepts and theories that are essential for data-driven causal effect estimation using graphical causal modelling but are scattered around the literature. We identify and discuss the challenges faced by data-driven causal effect estimation and characterise the existing methods by their assumptions and the approaches to tackling the challenges. We analyse the strengths and limitations of the different types of methods and present an empirical evaluation to support the discussions. We hope this review will motivate more researchers to design better data-driven methods based on graphical causal modelling for the challenging problem of causal effect estimation.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2023

Learning Class-Specific Spectral Patterns to Improve Deep Learning Based Scene-Level Fire Smoke Detection from Multi-Spectral Satellite Imagery

Detecting fire smoke is crucial for the timely identification of early wildfires using satellite imagery. However, the spatial and spectral similarity of fire smoke to other confounding aerosols, such as clouds and haze, often confuse even the most advanced deep-learning (DL) models. Nonetheless, these aerosols also present distinct spectral characteristics in some specific bands, and such spectral patterns are useful for distinguishing the aerosols more accurately. Early research tried to derive various threshold values from the reflectance and brightness temperature in specific spectral bands to differentiate smoke and cloud pixels. However, such threshold values were determined based on domain knowledge and are hard to generalise. In addition, such threshold values were manually derived from specific combinations of bands to infer spectral patterns, making them difficult to employ in deep-learning models. In this paper, we introduce a DL module called input amplification (InAmp) which is designed to enable DL models to learn class-specific spectral patterns automatically from multi-spectral satellite imagery and improve the fire smoke detection accuracy. InAmp can be conveniently integrated with different DL architectures. We evaluate the effectiveness of the InAmp module on different Convolutional neural network (CNN) architectures using two satellite imagery datasets: USTC_SmokeRS, derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) with three spectral bands; and Landsat_Smk, derived from Landsat 5/8 with six spectral bands. Our experimental results demonstrate that the InAmp module improves the fire smoke detection accuracy of the CNN models. Additionally, we visualise the spectral patterns extracted by the InAmp module using test imagery and demonstrate that the InAmp module can effectively extract class-specific spectral patterns.

cs.CY↗
arXiv2023

Conditional Instrumental Variable Regression with Representation Learning for Causal Inference

This paper studies the challenging problem of estimating causal effects from observational data, in the presence of unobserved confounders. The two-stage least square (TSLS) method and its variants with a standard instrumental variable (IV) are commonly used to eliminate confounding bias, including the bias caused by unobserved confounders, but they rely on the linearity assumption. Besides, the strict condition of unconfounded instruments posed on a standard IV is too strong to be practical. To address these challenging and practical problems of the standard IV method (linearity assumption and the strict condition), in this paper, we use a conditional IV (CIV) to relax the unconfounded instrument condition of standard IV and propose a non-linear CIV regression with Confounding Balancing Representation Learning, CBRL.CIV, for jointly eliminating the confounding bias from unobserved confounders and balancing the observed confounders, without the linearity assumption. We theoretically demonstrate the soundness of CBRL.CIV. Extensive experiments on synthetic and two real-world datasets show the competitive performance of CBRL.CIV against state-of-the-art IV-based estimators and superiority in dealing with the non-linear situation.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2023

Causal Inference with Conditional Front-Door Adjustment and Identifiable Variational Autoencoder

An essential and challenging problem in causal inference is causal effect estimation from observational data. The problem becomes more difficult with the presence of unobserved confounding variables. The front-door adjustment is a practical approach for dealing with unobserved confounding variables. However, the restriction for the standard front-door adjustment is difficult to satisfy in practice. In this paper, we relax some of the restrictions by proposing the concept of conditional front-door (CFD) adjustment and develop the theorem that guarantees the causal effect identifiability of CFD adjustment. Furthermore, as it is often impossible for a CFD variable to be given in practice, it is desirable to learn it from data. By leveraging the ability of deep generative models, we propose CFDiVAE to learn the representation of the CFD adjustment variable directly from data with the identifiable Variational AutoEncoder and formally prove the model identifiability. Extensive experiments on synthetic datasets validate the effectiveness of CFDiVAE and its superiority over existing methods. The experiments also show that the performance of CFDiVAE is less sensitive to the causal strength of unobserved confounding variables. We further apply CFDiVAE to a real-world dataset to demonstrate its potential application.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2023

Learning Conditional Instrumental Variable Representation for Causal Effect Estimation

One of the fundamental challenges in causal inference is to estimate the causal effect of a treatment on its outcome of interest from observational data. However, causal effect estimation often suffers from the impacts of confounding bias caused by unmeasured confounders that affect both the treatment and the outcome. The instrumental variable (IV) approach is a powerful way to eliminate the confounding bias from latent confounders. However, the existing IV-based estimators require a nominated IV, and for a conditional IV (CIV) the corresponding conditioning set too, for causal effect estimation. This limits the application of IV-based estimators. In this paper, by leveraging the advantage of disentangled representation learning, we propose a novel method, named DVAE.CIV, for learning and disentangling the representations of CIV and the representations of its conditioning set for causal effect estimations from data with latent confounders. Extensive experimental results on both synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate the superiority of the proposed DVAE.CIV method against the existing causal effect estimators.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2023

Causal Effect Estimation with Variational AutoEncoder and the Front Door Criterion

An essential problem in causal inference is estimating causal effects from observational data. The problem becomes more challenging with the presence of unobserved confounders. When there are unobserved confounders, the commonly used back-door adjustment is not applicable. Although the instrumental variable (IV) methods can deal with unobserved confounders, they all assume that the treatment directly affects the outcome, and there is no mediator between the treatment and the outcome. This paper aims to use the front-door criterion to address the challenging problem with the presence of unobserved confounders and mediators. In practice, it is often difficult to identify the set of variables used for front-door adjustment from data. By leveraging the ability of deep generative models in representation learning, we propose FDVAE to learn the representation of a Front-Door adjustment set with a Variational AutoEncoder, instead of trying to search for a set of variables for front-door adjustment. Extensive experiments on synthetic datasets validate the effectiveness of FDVAE and its superiority over existing methods. The experiments also show that the performance of FDVAE is not sensitive to the causal strength of unobserved confounders and is feasible in the case of dimensionality mismatch between learned representations and the ground truth. We further apply the method to three real-world datasets to demonstrate its potential applications.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2023

Linking a predictive model to causal effect estimation

A predictive model makes outcome predictions based on some given features, i.e., it estimates the conditional probability of the outcome given a feature vector. In general, a predictive model cannot estimate the causal effect of a feature on the outcome, i.e., how the outcome will change if the feature is changed while keeping the values of other features unchanged. This is because causal effect estimation requires interventional probabilities. However, many real world problems such as personalised decision making, recommendation, and fairness computing, need to know the causal effect of any feature on the outcome for a given instance. This is different from the traditional causal effect estimation problem with a fixed treatment variable. This paper first tackles the challenge of estimating the causal effect of any feature (as the treatment) on the outcome w.r.t. a given instance. The theoretical results naturally link a predictive model to causal effect estimations and imply that a predictive model is causally interpretable when the conditions identified in the paper are satisfied. The paper also reveals the robust property of a causally interpretable model. We use experiments to demonstrate that various types of predictive models, when satisfying the conditions identified in this paper, can estimate the causal effects of features as accurately as state-of-the-art causal effect estimation methods. We also show the potential of such causally interpretable predictive models for robust predictions and personalised decision making.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2022

Causal Inference with Conditional Instruments using Deep Generative Models

The instrumental variable (IV) approach is a widely used way to estimate the causal effects of a treatment on an outcome of interest from observational data with latent confounders. A standard IV is expected to be related to the treatment variable and independent of all other variables in the system. However, it is challenging to search for a standard IV from data directly due to the strict conditions. The conditional IV (CIV) method has been proposed to allow a variable to be an instrument conditioning on a set of variables, allowing a wider choice of possible IVs and enabling broader practical applications of the IV approach. Nevertheless, there is not a data-driven method to discover a CIV and its conditioning set directly from data. To fill this gap, in this paper, we propose to learn the representations of the information of a CIV and its conditioning set from data with latent confounders for average causal effect estimation. By taking advantage of deep generative models, we develop a novel data-driven approach for simultaneously learning the representation of a CIV from measured variables and generating the representation of its conditioning set given measured variables. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets show that our method outperforms the existing IV methods.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2022

Local search for efficient causal effect estimation

Causal effect estimation from observational data is a challenging problem, especially with high dimensional data and in the presence of unobserved variables. The available data-driven methods for tackling the problem either provide an estimation of the bounds of a causal effect (i.e. nonunique estimation) or have low efficiency. The major hurdle for achieving high efficiency while trying to obtain unique and unbiased causal effect estimation is how to find a proper adjustment set for confounding control in a fast way, given the huge covariate space and considering unobserved variables. In this paper, we approach the problem as a local search task for finding valid adjustment sets in data. We establish the theorems to support the local search for adjustment sets, and we show that unique and unbiased estimation can be achieved from observational data even when there exist unobserved variables. We then propose a data-driven algorithm that is fast and consistent under mild assumptions. We also make use of a frequent pattern mining method to further speed up the search of minimal adjustment sets for causal effect estimation. Experiments conducted on extensive synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that the proposed algorithm outperforms the state-of-the-art criteria/estimators in both accuracy and time-efficiency.

stat.ME↗
arXiv2022

Explanatory causal effects for model agnostic explanations

This paper studies the problem of estimating the contributions of features to the prediction of a specific instance by a machine learning model and the overall contribution of a feature to the model. The causal effect of a feature (variable) on the predicted outcome reflects the contribution of the feature to a prediction very well. A challenge is that most existing causal effects cannot be estimated from data without a known causal graph. In this paper, we define an explanatory causal effect based on a hypothetical ideal experiment. The definition brings several benefits to model agnostic explanations. First, explanations are transparent and have causal meanings. Second, the explanatory causal effect estimation can be data driven. Third, the causal effects provide both a local explanation for a specific prediction and a global explanation showing the overall importance of a feature in a predictive model. We further propose a method using individual and combined variables based on explanatory causal effects for explanations. We show the definition and the method work with experiments on some real-world data sets.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2022

Identify treatment effect patterns for personalised decisions

In personalised decision making, evidence is required to determine whether an action (treatment) is suitable for an individual. Such evidence can be obtained by modelling treatment effect heterogeneity in subgroups. The existing interpretable modelling methods take a top-down approach to search for subgroups with heterogeneous treatment effects and they may miss the most specific and relevant context for an individual. In this paper, we design a \emph{Treatment effect pattern (TEP)} to represent treatment effect heterogeneity in data. To achieve an interpretable presentation of TEPs, we use a local causal structure around the outcome to explicitly show how those important variables are used in modelling. We also derive a formula for unbiasedly estimating the \emph{Conditional Average Causal Effect (CATE)} using the local structure in our problem setting. In the discovery process, we aim at minimising heterogeneity within each subgroup represented by a pattern. We propose a bottom-up search algorithm to discover the most specific patterns fitting individual circumstances the best for personalised decision making. Experiments show that the proposed method models treatment effect heterogeneity better than three other existing tree based methods in synthetic and real world data sets.

stat.ME↗
arXiv2022

Discovering Ancestral Instrumental Variables for Causal Inference from Observational Data

Instrumental variable (IV) is a powerful approach to inferring the causal effect of a treatment on an outcome of interest from observational data even when there exist latent confounders between the treatment and the outcome. However, existing IV methods require that an IV is selected and justified with domain knowledge. An invalid IV may lead to biased estimates. Hence, discovering a valid IV is critical to the applications of IV methods. In this paper, we study and design a data-driven algorithm to discover valid IVs from data under mild assumptions. We develop the theory based on partial ancestral graphs (PAGs) to support the search for a set of candidate Ancestral IVs (AIVs), and for each possible AIV, the identification of its conditioning set. Based on the theory, we propose a data-driven algorithm to discover a pair of IVs from data. The experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets show that the developed IV discovery algorithm estimates accurate estimates of causal effects in comparison with the state-of-the-art IV based causal effect estimators.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2022

Assessing Classifier Fairness with Collider Bias

The increasing application of machine learning techniques in everyday decision-making processes has brought concerns about the fairness of algorithmic decision-making. This paper concerns the problem of collider bias which produces spurious associations in fairness assessment and develops theorems to guide fairness assessment avoiding the collider bias. We consider a real-world application of auditing a trained classifier by an audit agency. We propose an unbiased assessment algorithm by utilising the developed theorems to reduce collider biases in the assessment. Experiments and simulations show the proposed algorithm reduces collider biases significantly in the assessment and is promising in auditing trained classifiers.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2021

Feature Selection for Efficient Local-to-Global Bayesian Network Structure Learning

Local-to-global learning approach plays an essential role in Bayesian network (BN) structure learning. Existing local-to-global learning algorithms first construct the skeleton of a DAG (directed acyclic graph) by learning the MB (Markov blanket) or PC (parents and children) of each variable in a data set, then orient edges in the skeleton. However, existing MB or PC learning methods are often computationally expensive especially with a large-sized BN, resulting in inefficient local-to-global learning algorithms. To tackle the problem, in this paper, we develop an efficient local-to-global learning approach using feature selection. Specifically, we first analyze the rationale of the well-known Minimum-Redundancy and Maximum-Relevance (MRMR) feature selection approach for learning a PC set of a variable. Based on the analysis, we propose an efficient F2SL (feature selection-based structure learning) approach to local-to-global BN structure learning. The F2SL approach first employs the MRMR approach to learn a DAG skeleton, then orients edges in the skeleton. Employing independence tests or score functions for orienting edges, we instantiate the F2SL approach into two new algorithms, F2SL-c (using independence tests) and F2SL-s (using score functions). Compared to the state-of-the-art local-to-global BN learning algorithms, the experiments validated that the proposed algorithms in this paper are more efficient and provide competitive structure learning quality than the compared algorithms.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2021

A unified survey of treatment effect heterogeneity modeling and uplift modeling

A central question in many fields of scientific research is to determine how an outcome would be affected by an action, or to measure the effect of an action (a.k.a treatment effect). In recent years, a need for estimating the heterogeneous treatment effects conditioning on the different characteristics of individuals has emerged from research fields such as personalized healthcare, social science, and online marketing. To meet the need, researchers and practitioners from different communities have developed algorithms by taking the treatment effect heterogeneity modeling approach and the uplift modeling approach, respectively. In this paper, we provide a unified survey of these two seemingly disconnected yet closely related approaches under the potential outcome framework. We then provide a structured survey of existing methods by emphasizing on their inherent connections with a set of unified notations to make comparisons of the different methods easy. We then review the main applications of the surveyed methods in personalized marketing, personalized medicine, and social studies. Finally, we summarize the existing software packages and present discussions based on the use of methods on synthetic, semi-synthetic and real world data sets and provide some general guidelines for choosing methods.

stat.ME↗
arXiv2021

Treatment effect estimation with disentangled latent factors

Much research has been devoted to the problem of estimating treatment effects from observational data; however, most methods assume that the observed variables only contain confounders, i.e., variables that affect both the treatment and the outcome. Unfortunately, this assumption is frequently violated in real-world applications, since some variables only affect the treatment but not the outcome, and vice versa. Moreover, in many cases only the proxy variables of the underlying confounding factors can be observed. In this work, we first show the importance of differentiating confounding factors from instrumental and risk factors for both average and conditional average treatment effect estimation, and then we propose a variational inference approach to simultaneously infer latent factors from the observed variables, disentangle the factors into three disjoint sets corresponding to the instrumental, confounding, and risk factors, and use the disentangled factors for treatment effect estimation. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method on a wide range of synthetic, benchmark, and real-world datasets.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2021

Robust Multi-instance Learning with Stable Instances

Multi-instance learning (MIL) deals with tasks where data is represented by a set of bags and each bag is described by a set of instances. Unlike standard supervised learning, only the bag labels are observed whereas the label for each instance is not available to the learner. Previous MIL studies typically follow the i.i.d. assumption, that the training and test samples are independently drawn from the same distribution. However, such assumption is often violated in real-world applications. Efforts have been made towards addressing distribution changes by importance weighting the training data with the density ratio between the training and test samples. Unfortunately, models often need to be trained without seeing the test distributions. In this paper we propose possibly the first framework for addressing distribution change in MIL without requiring access to the unlabeled test data. Our framework builds upon identifying a novel connection between MIL and the potential outcome framework in causal effect estimation. Experimental results on synthetic distribution change datasets, real-world datasets with synthetic distribution biases and real distributional biased image classification datasets validate the effectiveness of our approach.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2021

Any Part of Bayesian Network Structure Learning

We study an interesting and challenging problem, learning any part of a Bayesian network (BN) structure. In this challenge, it will be computationally inefficient using existing global BN structure learning algorithms to find an entire BN structure to achieve the part of a BN structure in which we are interested. And local BN structure learning algorithms encounter the false edge orientation problem when they are directly used to tackle this challenging problem. In this paper, we first present a new concept of Expand-Backtracking to explain why local BN structure learning methods have the false edge orientation problem, then propose APSL, an efficient and accurate Any Part of BN Structure Learning algorithm. Specifically, APSL divides the V-structures in a Markov blanket (MB) into two types: collider V-structure and non-collider V-structure, then it starts from a node of interest and recursively finds both collider V-structures and non-collider V-structures in the found MBs, until the part of a BN structure in which we are interested are oriented. To improve the efficiency of APSL, we further design the APSL-FS algorithm using Feature Selection, APSL-FS. Using six benchmark BNs, the extensive experiments have validated the efficiency and accuracy of our methods.

cs.LG↗