arXiv subjects

João Paulo Nogueira

Publications and source records attributed to João Paulo Nogueira.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Externalized CPDAG Summaries Improve LLM Causal Deduction

Corr2Cause asks whether a causal claim holds in every DAG compatible with observed correlations and conditional independencies. We frame this as latent-object reasoning: the label is defined by a CPDAG query, but free-form chain-of-thought often collapses the Markov-equivalence-class problem into local pattern matching. We propose Structured Thinking, a two-turn pipeline that first externalizes a typed, schema-constrained CPDAG summary and then answers against that graph state. On the Corr2Cause full test, Structured Thinking raises Qwen3.5-27B from $73.0$ to $86.4$ $F_1$(Yes) over a strong PC-instruction baseline in the primary paired run ($+13.4$ pp; McNemar $p=2.4\times 10^{-6}$; bootstrap $95\%$ CI [$+8.4$, $+18.6$]); across three full-ID seeds, the mean gain is $+8.1 \pm 5.3$ pp. A PC-scaffolded two-turn prose control reaches only $67.6$ $F_1$, indicating that a detailed PC scaffold plus a schema-free prose intermediate is not sufficient. The same pattern holds on Qwen3.6-27B, Paraphrase-OOD, and GPT-5.4-mini. Scrambling the emitted CPDAG costs $12.0$ pp $F_1$, and a full-split audit shows close agreement with the reference CPDAG (ID skeleton $F_1$ $0.960$; exact match $75.9\%$). These results support a bounded design principle: externalize the latent object that defines the label, constrain its form, and test whether downstream answers use it.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Certainty-Guided Reasoning in Large Language Models: A Dynamic Thinking Budget Approach

Large reasoning language models are typically run with fixed inference budgets, which can waste computation or terminate reasoning prematurely. We introduce Certainty-Guided Reasoning (CGR), a model-agnostic adaptive inference procedure that periodically probes whether the current reasoning supports a confident final answer and terminates early once a target certainty threshold is reached, otherwise continuing until the end-of-thinking token or the budget limit. Certainty is estimated from the model's predicted probabilities over the answer tokens, yielding a lightweight stopping criterion. On AIME2025, CGR preserves baseline accuracy while reducing token usage, providing a tunable certainty-efficiency trade-off that can eliminate millions of tokens in aggregate. Across 64 random seeds, CGR exhibits consistent behavior. We also introduce a Grade metric that penalizes incorrect answers and permits abstention, capturing risk-sensitive performance. Results show that CGR improves Grade by abstaining when certainty remains low.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Structured Thinking Matters: Improving LLMs Generalization in Causal Inference Tasks

Despite remarkable advances in the field, LLMs remain unreliable in distinguishing causation from correlation. Recent results from the Corr2Cause dataset benchmark reveal that state-of-the-art LLMs -- such as GPT-4 (F1 score: 29.08) -- only marginally outperform random baselines (Random Uniform, F1 score: 20.38), indicating limited capacity of generalization. To tackle this limitation, we propose a novel structured approach: rather than directly answering causal queries, we provide the model with the capability to structure its thinking by guiding the model to build a structured knowledge graph, systematically encoding the provided correlational premises, to answer the causal queries. This intermediate representation significantly enhances the model's causal capabilities. Experiments on the test subset of the Corr2Cause dataset benchmark with Qwen3-32B model (reasoning model) show substantial gains over standard direct prompting methods, improving F1 scores from 32.71 to 48.26 (over 47.5% relative increase), along with notable improvements in precision and recall. These results underscore the effectiveness of providing the model with the capability to structure its thinking and highlight its promising potential for broader generalization across diverse causal inference tasks.

cs.AI↗