arXiv subjects

Joachim Kaldasch

Publications and source records attributed to Joachim Kaldasch.

13 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2015

The Product Life Cycle of Durable Goods

A dynamic model of the product lifecycle of (nearly) homogeneous durables in polypoly markets is established. It describes the concurrent evolution of the unit sales and price of durable goods. The theory is based on the idea that the sales dynamics is determined by a meeting process of demanded with supplied product units. Taking advantage from the Bass model for first purchase and a logistic model for repurchase the entire product lifecycle of a durable can be established. For the case of a fast growing supply the model suggests that the mean price of the good decreases according to a logistic law. Both, the established unit sales and price evolution are in agreement with the empirical data studied in this paper. The presented approach discusses further the interference of the diffusion process with the supply dynamics. The model predicts the occurrence of lost sales in the initial stages of the lifecycle due to supply constraints. They are the origin for a retarded market penetration. The theory suggests that the imitation rate B indicating social contagion in the Bass model has its maximum magnitude for the case of a large amount of available units at introduction and a fast output increase. The empirical data of the investigated samples are in qualitative agreement with this prediction.

stat.OT↗

arXiv2015

Dynamic Model of Markets of Homogenous Non-Durable

A new microeconomic model is presented that aims at a description of the long-term unit sales and price evolution of homogeneous non-durable goods in polypoly markets. It merges the product lifecycle approach with the price dispersion dynamics of homogeneous goods. The model predicts a minimum critical lifetime of non-durables in order to survive. Under the condition that the supply side of the market evolves much faster than the demand side the theory suggests that unsatisfied demands are present in the first stages of the lifecycle. With the growth of production capacities these demands disappear accompanied with a logistic decrease of the mean price of the good. The model is applied to electricity as a non-durable satisfying the model condition. The presented theory allows a deeper understanding of the sales and price dynamics of non-durables.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2015

Dynamic Model of the Price Dispersion of Homogeneous Goods

Presented is an analytic microeconomic model of the temporal price dispersion of homogeneous goods in polypoly markets. This new approach is based on the idea that the price dispersion has its origin in the dynamics of the purchase process. The price dispersion is determined by the chance that demanded and supplied product units meet in a given price interval. It can be characterized by a fat-tailed Laplace distribution for short and by a lognormal distribution for long time horizons. Taking random temporal variations of demanded and supplied units into account both the mean price and also the standard deviation of the price dispersion are governed by a lognormal distribution. A comparison with empirical investigations confirms the model statements.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2015

Evolutionary Model of Stock Markets

The paper presents an evolutionary economic model for the price evolution of stocks. Treating a stock market as a self-organized system governed by a fast purchase process and slow variations of demand and supply the model suggests that the short term price distribution has the form a logistic (Laplace) distribution. The long term return can be described by Laplace-Gaussian mixture distributions. The long term mean price evolution is governed by a Walrus equation, which can be transformed into a replicator equation. This allows quantifying the evolutionary price competition between stocks. The theory suggests that stock prices scaled by the price over all stocks can be used to investigate long-term trends in a Fisher-Pry plot. The price competition that follows from the model is illustrated by examining the empirical long-term price trends of two stocks.

q-fin.GN↗

arXiv2015

Shear Thickening in Concentrated Soft Sphere Colloidal Suspensions: A Shear Induced Phase Transition

A model of shear thickening in dense suspensions of Brownian soft sphere colloidal particles is established. It suggests that shear thickening in soft sphere suspensions can be interpreted as a shear induced phase transition. Based on a Landau model of the coagulation transition of stabilized colloidal particles, taking the coupling between order parameter fluctuations and the local strain-field into account, the model suggests the occurrence of clusters of coagulated particles (subcritical bubbles) by applying a continuous shear perturbation.The critical shear stress of shear thickening in soft sphere suspensions is derived while reversible shear thickening and irreversible shear thickening have the same origin. The comparison of the theory with an experimental investigation of electrically stabilized colloidal suspensions confirms the presented approach.

cond-mat.soft↗

arXiv2013

Structural transitions in sheared electrically stabilized colloidal crystals

A Landau theory is presented for the structural transition of electrically stabilized colloidal crystals under shear. The model suggests that a structural transition from an ordered layered colloidal crystal into a disordered structure occurs at a critical shear stress. The shear induced structural transition is related to a change of the rheological properties caused by the variation of the microstructure which can be verified by scattering experiments. The theory is used to establish the shape of the flow curves. A good qualitative agreement with experimental results can be achieved, while a scaling relation similar to the elastic scaling is established.

cond-mat.mtrl-sci↗

arXiv2013

Evolutionary Model of a Anonymous Consumer Durable Market

An analytic model is presented that considers the evolution of a market of durable goods. The model suggests that after introduction goods spread always according to a Bass diffusion. However, this phase will be followed by a diffusion process for durable consumer goods governed by a variation-selection-reproduction mechanism and the growth dynamics can be described by a replicator equation. Describing the aggregate sales as the sum of first, multiple and replacement purchase the product life cycle can be derived. Replacement purchase causes periodic variations of the sales determined by the finite lifetime of the good (Juglar cycles). The model suggests that both, Bass- and Gompertz diffusion may contribute to the product life cycle of a consumer durable. The theory contains the standard equilibrium view of a market as a special case. It depends on the time scale, whether an equilibrium or evolutionary description is more appropriate. The evolutionary framework is used to derive also the size, growth rate and price distribution of manufacturing business units. It predicts that the size distribution of the business units (products) is lognormal, while the growth rates exhibit a Laplace distribution. Large price deviations from the mean price are also governed by a Laplace distribution (fat tails). These results are in agreement with empirical findings. The explicit comparison of the time evolution of consumer durables with empirical investigations confirms the close relationship between price decline and Gompertz diffusion, while the product life cycle can be described qualitatively for a long time period.

q-fin.GN↗

arXiv2012

Evolutionary Model of the Growth and Size of Firms

The key idea of this model is that firms are the result of an evolutionary process. Based on demand and supply considerations the evolutionary model presented here derives explicitly Gibrat's law of proportionate effects as the result of the competition between products. Applying a preferential attachment mechanism for firms the theory allows to establish the size distribution of products and firms. Also established are the growth rate and price distribution of consumer goods. Taking into account the characteristic property of human activities to occur in bursts, the model allows also an explanation of the size-variance relationship of the growth rate distribution of products and firms. Further the product life cycle, the learning (experience) curve and the market size in terms of the mean number of firms that can survive in a market are derived. The model also suggests the existence of an invariant of a market as the ratio of total profit to total revenue. The relationship between a neo-classic and an evolutionary view of a market is discussed. The comparison with empirical investigations suggests that the theory is able to describe the main stylized facts concerning the size and growth of firms.

q-fin.GN↗

arXiv2012

Shear Thickening in Polymer Stabilized Colloidal Suspensions

This paper adopts a previously developed activation model of shear thickening, published by the authors, to sterically stabilized colloidal suspensions. When particles arranged along the compression axis of a sheared suspension, they may overcome the repulsive interaction and form hydroclusters associated with shear thickening. Taking advantage of the total interaction potential of polymeric brush coating and van der Waals attraction, the applicability of the activation model is shown within the validity range of a continuum theory. For the comparison with an extensive experimental investigation, where some parameters are not available, the onset of shear thickening can be predicted with realistic assumptions of the model parameters.

cond-mat.soft↗

arXiv2012

Shear thickening in electrically stabilized non-aqueous colloidal suspensions

The authors previously introduced an activation model for the onset of shear thickening in electrically stabilized colloidal suspensions. It predicts that shear thickening occurs, when particles arranged along the compression axis in a sheared suspension do overcome the electrostatic repulsion at a critical shear stress, and are captured in the primary minimum of the DLVO interaction potential. A comparison with an experimental investigation on non-aqueous silica suspensions, carried out by Maranzano and Wagner, is performed. For particle systems that fall into the applicability range of the theory, a good coincidence between the experimental data and the model predictions can be found.

cond-mat.soft↗

arXiv2012

Evolutionary Model of the Personal Income Distribution

The aim of this work is to establish the personal income distribution from the elementary constituents of a free market; products of a representative good and agents forming the economic network. The economy is treated as a self-organized system. Based on the idea that the dynamics of an economy is governed by slow modes, the model suggests that for short time intervals a fixed ratio of total labour income (capital income) to net income exists (Cobb-Douglas relation). Explicitly derived is Gibrat's law from an evolutionary market dynamics of short term fluctuations. The total private income distribution is shown to consist of four main parts. From capital income of private firms the income distribution contains a lognormal distribution for small and a Pareto tail for large incomes. Labour income contributes an exponential distribution. Also included is the income from a social insurance system, approximated by a Gaussian peak. The evolutionary model is able to reproduce the stylized facts of the income distribution, shown by a comparison with empirical data of a high resolution income distribution. The theory suggests that in a free market competition between products is ultimately the origin of the uneven income distribution.

q-fin.GN↗

arXiv2011

Shear thickening in Electrically Stabilized Colloidal Suspensions

A theory is presented for the onset of shear thickening in colloidal suspensions of particles, stabilized by an electrostatic repulsion. Based on an activation model a critical shear stress can be derived for the onset of shear thickening in dense suspensions for a constant potential and a constant charge approach of the spheres. Unlike previous models the total interaction potential is taken into account (sum of attraction and repulsion). The critical shear stress is related to the maximum of the total interaction potential scaled by the free volume per particle. A comparison with experimental investigations shows the applicability of the theory.

cond-mat.soft↗

arXiv2011

The Impact of non-DLVO Forces on the Onset of Shear Thickening of Concentrated Electrically Stabilized Suspensions

This paper exposes an extension of an activation model previously published by the authors. When particles arranged along the compression axis of a sheared suspension, they may overcome the electrostatic repulsion and form force chains associated with shear thickening. A percolation based consideration, allows an estimation of the impact of the force chains on a flowing suspension. It suggests that, similar to mode-coupling models, the suspension becomes unstable before the critical stress evaluated from the activation model is reached. The theory is applicable only to discontinuous shear thickening, and the predictions are compared with results from two experimental studies on aqueous suspensions of inorganic oxides; in one of them hydration repulsion and in the other hydrophobic attraction can be expected. It is shown that the incorporation of non-DLVO forces greatly improve predictions of the shear thickening instability.

cond-mat.soft↗