arXiv subjects

Joan Saldaña

Publications and source records attributed to Joan Saldaña.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Generation time in a discrete epidemic model with asymptomatic carriers: beyond geometric waiting times

We study the random times between successive cases in a transmission chain of infectious diseases with asymptomatic carriers. We derive the probability distribution of this generation time (in days) from a discrete-time epidemic model with variable infectiousness both along elapsed times and across phases. The introduced non-Markovian model is a compact recursive system featuring random waiting times at each of the three infected stages: latent, asymptomatic, and symptomatic. By rearranging the terms of the basic reproduction number, which represents the expected number of secondary cases produced by an asymptomatic primary case who may eventually develop symptoms, we get to the generation-time probabilities. The expected generation time is a convex combination of the expected generation times before and after the onset of symptoms. Additionally, our analysis reveals that the n-th moment of the generation time is related to the moments up to n-th order of the weighted forward recurrence time at each phase and the moments up to n-th order of the latent period and the incubation period. These weights are the infectiousness along the elapsed times for each transmission phase. Finally, we illustrate several data-driven epidemic scenarios, assuming that infectiousness varies only across phases and discrete Weibull distributions for the waiting times. Each disease analyzed shows a range of variability in its generation time distribution, from low to moderate.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2024

Collinear Fractals and Bandt's Conjecture

For a complex parameter $c$ outside the unit disk and an integer $n\ge2$, we examine the $n$-ary collinear fractal $E(c,n)$, defined as the attractor of the iterated function system $\{\mbox{$f_k \colon \mathbb{C} \longrightarrow \mathbb{C}$}\}_{k=1}^n$, where $f_k(z):=1+n-2k+c^{-1}z$. We investigate some topological features of the connectedness locus $\mathcal{M}_n$, similar to the Mandelbrot set, defined as the set of those $c$ for which $E(c,n)$ is connected. In particular, we provide a detailed answer to an open question posed by Calegari, Koch, and Walker in 2017. We also extend and refine the technique of the covering property by Solomyak and Xu to any $n\ge2$. We use it to show that a nontrivial portion of $\mathcal{M}_n$ is regular-closed. When $n\ge21$, we enhance this result by showing that, in fact, the whole $\mathcal{M}_n\setminus\mathbb{R}$ lies within the closure of its interior, thus proving that the generalized Bandt's conjecture is true.

math.DS↗

arXiv2023

Generalized epidemic model incorporating non-Markovian infection processes and waning immunity

The Markovian approach, which assumes exponentially distributed interinfection times, is dominant in epidemic modeling. However, this assumption is unrealistic as an individual's infectiousness depends on its viral load and varies over time. In this paper, we present a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Vaccinated-Susceptible epidemic model incorporating non-Markovian infection processes. The model can be easily adapted to accurately capture the generation time distributions of emerging infectious diseases, which is essential for accurate epidemic prediction. We observe noticeable variations in the transient behavior under different infectiousness profiles and the same basic reproduction number R0. The theoretical analyses show that only R0 and the mean immunity period of the vaccinated individuals have an impact on the critical vaccination rate needed to achieve herd immunity. A vaccination level at the critical vaccination rate can ensure a very low incidence among the population in case of future epidemics, regardless of the infectiousness profiles.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2022

Saddle-node bifurcation of limit cycles in an epidemic model with two levels of awareness

In this paper we study the appearance of bifurcations of limit cycles in an epidemic model with two types of aware individuals. All the transition rates are constant except for the alerting decay rate of the most aware individuals and the rate of creation of the less aware individuals, which depend on the disease prevalence in a non-linear way. For the ODE model, the numerical computation of the limit cycles and the study of their stability are made by means of the Poincaré map. Moreover, sufficient conditions for the existence of an endemic equilibrium are also obtained. These conditions involve a rather natural relationship between the transmissibility of the disease and that of awareness. Finally, stochastic simulations of the model under a very low rate of imported cases are used to confirm the scenarios of bistability (endemic equilibrium and limit cycle) observed in the solutions of the ODE model.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2020

Robustness of behaviourally-induced oscillations in epidemic models under a low rate of imported cases

This paper is concerned with the robustness of the sustained oscillations predicted by an epidemic ODE model defined on contact networks. The model incorporates the spread of awareness among individuals and, moreover, a small inflow of imported cases. These cases prevent stochastic extinctions when we simulate the epidemics and, hence, they allow to check whether the average dynamics for the fraction of infected individuals are accurately predicted by the ODE model. Stochastic simulations confirm the existence of sustained oscillations for different types of random networks, with a sharp transition from a non-oscillatory asymptotic regime to a periodic one as the alerting rate of susceptible individuals increases from very small values. This abrupt transition to periodic epidemics of high amplitude is quite accurately predicted by the Hopf-bifurcation curve computed from the ODE model using the alerting rate and the infection transmission rate for aware individuals as tuning parameters.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2016

Creating and controlling overlap in two-layer networks. Application to a mean-field SIS epidemic model with awareness dissemination

We study the properties of the potential overlap between two networks $A,B$ sharing the same set of $N$ nodes (a two-layer network) whose respective degree distributions $p_A(k), p_B(k)$ are given. Defining the overlap coefficient $α$ as the Jaccard index, we derive upper bounds for the minimum and maximum overlap coefficient in terms of $p_A(k)$, $p_B(k)$ and $N$. We also present an algorithm based on cross-rewiring of links to obtain a two-layer network with any prescribed $α$ inside the permitted range. Finally, to illustrate the importance of the overlap for the dynamics of interacting contagious processes, we derive a mean-field model for the spread of an SIS epidemic with awareness against infection over a two-layer network, containing $α$ as a parameter. A simple analytical relationship between $α$ and the basic reproduction number follows. Stochastic simulations are presented to assess the accuracy of the upper bounds of $α$ and the predictions of the mean-field epidemic model.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2015

Impact of density-dependent migration flows on epidemic outbreaks in heterogeneous metapopulations

We investigate the role of migration patterns on the spread of epidemics in complex networks. We enhance the SIS-diffusion model on metapopulations to a nonlinear diffusion. Specifically, individuals move randomly over the network but at a rate depending on the population of the departure patch. In the absence of epidemics, the migration-driven equilibrium is described by quantifying the total number of individuals living in heavily/lightly populated areas. Our analytical approach reveals that strengthening the migration from populous areas contains the infection at the early stage of the epidemic. Moreover, depending on the exponent of the nonlinear diffusion rate, epidemic outbreaks do not always occur in the most populated areas as one might expect.

q-bio.PE↗