arXiv subjects

Joe Watson

Publications and source records attributed to Joe Watson.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Shortcut Learning in Legal Judgment Prediction: Empirical Evidence from the UK Employment Tribunal

Current Legal Judgment Prediction (LJP) is constrained by its reliance on post-hoc judicial materials, increasing the likelihood that models perform retrospective classification rather than true forecasting. This paper empirically investigates shortcut learning in this context by studying claim-level outcome prediction in UK Employment Tribunal (UKET) decisions. Using a corpus of 33,158 individual claims, we predict outcomes from claim texts and LLM-extracted case summaries, evaluating models ranging from interpretable TF-IDF-based classifiers to black-box LLMs. While headline predictive performance figures appear strong, we demonstrate that such performance in LJP systems trained on post-hoc judicial text can be driven by the retrospective nature of the source material. Stratifying the test data by human judgments of leakage reveals that performance increases where outcome-revealing cues are embedded in the narrative. Moreover, a model trained on just the 4% of features identified as leakage achieves high performance, outperforming human experts. These findings substantiate concerns that LJP performance may be exaggerated by linguistic artefacts. Yet this vulnerability is not fatal to the research agenda. Instead, post-hoc judgments might be treated as potentially contaminated texts, requiring active auditing. Retraining models after masking leakage features results in only a negligible reduction in Macro-F1. Hence, while models will opportunistically exploit shortcuts when available, they remain capable of extracting useful predictive signals when these artefacts are removed.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Imitation from Heterogeneous Demonstrations using Grounded Latent-Action World Models

Imitation learning has emerged as a powerful paradigm for learning visuomotor policies, but its generalisation and stability are limited by the scale and quality of demonstration data needed. A promising direction is to leverage more abundant but heterogeneous data sources, which differ in action space and often lack action labels altogether. Existing co-training approaches that combine heterogeneous data sources rely on heuristic and hand-engineered alignment techniques. In contrast, we argue that action representations should be grounded in prediction: actions that produce the same effect on the environment should share the same representation, regardless of their sources. To this end, we instantiate this principle by using a grounded latent-action world model (GLAM), a pair of generative models with a shared latent action space across data sources that is grounded by predicting future observations consistently across sources. This latent action space is used to train downstream behavioural cloning (BC) policies which map observations to latent actions and decode them back to robot actions, providing a paradigm for learning from heterogeneous data. Empirically, we demonstrate that GLAM successfully learns an aligned latent action space that facilitates action transfer across data sources with and without action labels. Across five manipulation tasks in simulation and in the real world, GLAM-aligned policies significantly outperform BC baselines and prior latent-action methods, achieving an average of +48% improvement in task success rate with the same data-scarce setting. Videos and code are available at https://viccccciv.github.io/glam/.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2026

Coherent Off-Policy Improvement of Large Behavior Models with Learned Rewards

Distilling expert demonstration data into large generative models using behavioral cloning is a scalable approach to learning capable policies for robotic control, particularly for dexterous manipulation. Reinforcement learning (RL) can be used as a means to finetune these policies further using additional experience. An open question is whether RL is more sample-efficient than collecting more human demonstrations. Prior work has finetuned large pretrained policies in a scalable fashion by applying RL to a smaller residual policy that corrects the pretrained model. However, for the typical sparse reward tasks, RL algorithms can struggle to optimize the behavior in a sample-efficient manner. We explore inverse reinforcement learning, where a dense reward function is learned from expert demonstrations, potentially reducing the challenge of RL finetuning. We specifically consider coherent imitation learning, an IRL method that facilitates improvement of the BC policy through using a specific reward formulation with theoretical guarantees. We show that our IRL method maintains or improves the performance of pi-0.5 on all six sparse manipulation tasks and achieves a $\geq 90\%$ success rate on five out of six complex manipulation tasks, outperforming RL-based baselines using sparse rewards. By ensuring our initial pretrained finetuning policy is optimal for our initial reward and critic, our method circumvents the initial drop commonly seen in RL finetuning and enables faster improvement.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

XQCfD: Accelerating Fast Actor-Critic Algorithms with Prior Data and Prior Policies

For reinforcement learning in the real world online exploration is expensive A common practice in robotic reinforcement learning is to incorporate additional data to improve sample efficiency Expert demonstration data is often crucial for solving hard exploration tasks with sparse rewards While prior data is used to augment experience and pretrain models we show that the design of existing algorithms fails to achieve the sample efficiency that is possible in this setting due to a failure to use pretrained policies effectively We propose XQCfD which extends the sample-efficient XQC actor-critic to learn from demonstrations using augmented replay buffers pretrained policies and stationary policy architectures designed to avoid rapidly unlearning the strong initial policy like prior works We show our stationary network architecture enables policy improvement out-of-distribution better than standard network architectures due to its higher entropy predictions XQCfD achieves state of the art performance across a range of complex manipulation tasks with sparse rewards from the popular Adroit Robomimic and MimicGen benchmarks -- notably with a low update-to-data ratio and no ensemble networks

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Disentangling Dynamical Systems: Causal Representation Learning Meets Local Sparse Attention

Parametric system identification methods estimate the parameters of explicitly defined physical systems from data. Yet, they remain constrained by the need to provide an explicit function space, typically through a predefined library of candidate functions chosen via available domain knowledge. In contrast, deep learning can demonstrably model systems of broad complexity with high fidelity, but black-box function approximation typically fails to yield explicit descriptive or disentangled representations revealing the structure of a system. We develop a novel identifiability theorem, leveraging causal representation learning, to uncover disentangled representations of system parameters without structural assumptions. We derive a graphical criterion specifying when system parameters can be uniquely disentangled from raw trajectory data, up to permutation and diffeomorphism. Crucially, our analysis demonstrates that global causal structures provide a lower bound on the disentanglement guarantees achievable when considering local state-dependent causal structures. We instantiate system parameter identification as a variational inference problem, leveraging a sparsity-regularised transformer to uncover state-dependent causal structures. We empirically validate our approach across four synthetic domains, demonstrating its ability to recover highly disentangled representations that baselines fail to recover. Corroborating our theoretical analysis, our results confirm that enforcing local causal structure is often necessary for full identifiability.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Posterior Sampling Reinforcement Learning with Gaussian Processes for Continuous Control: Sublinear Regret Bounds for Unbounded State Spaces

We analyze the Bayesian regret of the Gaussian process posterior sampling reinforcement learning (GP-PSRL) algorithm. Posterior sampling is a heuristic for decision-making under uncertainty that has been used to develop successful algorithms for a variety of continuous control problems. However, theoretical work on GP-PSRL is limited. All known regret bounds either have a sub-optimal growth rate, require strong smoothness assumptions, or fail to properly account for the fact that the set of possible system states is unbounded. Through a recursive application of the Borell-Tsirelson-Ibragimov-Sudakov inequality, we show that, with high probability, the states actually visited by the algorithm are contained within a ball of near-constant radius. We then use the chaining method to control the regret suffered by GP-PSRL under weak smoothness conditions. Our main result is a Bayesian regret bound of the order $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(H\sqrt{\gamma_TT})$, where $H$ is the horizon, $T$ is the number of time steps and $\gamma_T$ is the expected information gain. With this result, we resolve the limitations with prior theoretical work on PSRL, and provide the theoretical foundation and tools for analyzing PSRL in complex settings.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Augmenting Rating-Scale Measures with Text-Derived Items Using the Information-Determined Scoring (IDS) Framework

Psychological assessments commonly rely on rating-scale items, which require respondents to condense complex experiences into predefined categories. Although rich, unstructured text is often captured alongside these scales, it rarely contributes to measuring the target trait because it lacks direct mapping to the latent scale. We introduce the Information-Determined Scoring (IDS) framework, where large language models (LLMs) score free-text responses with simple prompts to generate candidate items that are co-calibrated with a baseline scale and retained based on the psychometric information they provide about the target trait. This marks a conceptual departure from traditional automated text scoring by prioritising information gain over fidelity to expert rubrics or human-annotated data. Using depression as a case study, we developed and tested the method in upper-secondary students (n = 693) and a matched synthetic dataset (n = 3,000). Across held-out test sets, augmenting a 19-item rating-scale measure with LLM-derived items yielded significant improvements in measurement precision and accuracy, and stronger convergent validity with an external suicidality measure throughout the adaptive test. In adaptive simulations, LLM-derived items contributed information equivalent to adding up to 6.3 and 16.0 rating-scale items in real and synthetic data, respectively. This enabled earlier high-precision measurement: after 10 items, 46.3% of respondents reached SE <= .3 under the strongest augmented test compared with 35.5% at baseline in real data, and 60.4% versus 34.7% in synthetic data. These findings illustrate how the IDS framework leverages unstructured text to enhance existing psychological measures, with applications in clinical health and beyond.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Building Gradient by Gradient: Decentralised Energy Functions for Bimanual Robot Assembly

There are many challenges in bimanual assembly, including high-level sequencing, multi-robot coordination, and low-level, contact-rich operations such as component mating. Task and motion planning (TAMP) methods, while effective in this domain, may be prohibitively slow to converge when adapting to disturbances that require new task sequencing and optimisation. These events are common during tight-tolerance assembly, where difficult-to-model dynamics such as friction or deformation require rapid replanning and reattempts. Moreover, defining explicit task sequences for assembly can be cumbersome, limiting flexibility when task replanning is required. To simplify this planning, we introduce a decentralised gradient-based framework that uses a piecewise continuous energy function through the automatic composition of adaptive potential functions. This approach generates sub-goals using only myopic optimisation, rather than long-horizon planning. It demonstrates effectiveness at solving long-horizon tasks due to the structure and adaptivity of the energy function. We show that our approach scales to physical bimanual assembly tasks for constructing tight-tolerance assemblies. In these experiments, we discover that our gradient-based rapid replanning framework generates automatic retries, coordinated motions and autonomous handovers in an emergent fashion.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2025

XQC: Well-conditioned Optimization Accelerates Deep Reinforcement Learning

Sample efficiency is a central property of effective deep reinforcement learning algorithms. Recent work has improved this through added complexity, such as larger models, exotic network architectures, and more complex algorithms, which are typically motivated purely by empirical performance. We take a more principled approach by focusing on the optimization landscape of the critic network. Using the eigenspectrum and condition number of the critic's Hessian, we systematically investigate the impact of common architectural design decisions on training dynamics. Our analysis reveals that a novel combination of batch normalization (BN), weight normalization (WN), and a distributional cross-entropy (CE) loss produces condition numbers orders of magnitude smaller than baselines. This combination also naturally bounds gradient norms, a property critical for maintaining a stable effective learning rate under non-stationary targets and bootstrapping. Based on these insights, we introduce XQC: a well-motivated, sample-efficient deep actor-critic algorithm built upon soft actor-critic that embodies these optimization-aware principles. We achieve state-of-the art sample efficiency across 55 proprioception and 15 vision-based continuous control tasks, all while using significantly fewer parameters than competing methods. Our code is available at danielpalenicek.github.io/projects/xqc.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Towards Safe Robot Foundation Models Using Inductive Biases

Safety is a critical requirement for the real-world deployment of robotic systems. Unfortunately, while current robot foundation models show promising generalization capabilities across a wide variety of tasks, they fail to address safety, an important aspect for ensuring long-term operation. Current robot foundation models assume that safe behavior should emerge by learning from a sufficiently large dataset of demonstrations. However, this approach has two clear major drawbacks. Firstly, there are no formal safety guarantees for a behavior cloning policy trained using supervised learning. Secondly, without explicit knowledge of any safety constraints, the policy may require an unreasonable number of additional demonstrations to even approximate the desired constrained behavior. To solve these key issues, we show how we can instead combine robot foundation models with geometric inductive biases using ATACOM, a safety layer placed after the foundation policy that ensures safe state transitions by enforcing action constraints. With this approach, we can ensure formal safety guarantees for generalist policies without providing extensive demonstrations of safe behavior, and without requiring any specific fine-tuning for safety. Our experiments show that our approach can be beneficial both for classical manipulation tasks, where we avoid unwanted collisions with irrelevant objects, and for dynamic tasks, such as the robot air hockey environment, where we can generate fast trajectories respecting complex tasks and joint space constraints.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2025

Towards Safe Robot Foundation Models

Robot foundation models hold the potential for deployment across diverse environments, from industrial applications to household tasks. While current research focuses primarily on the policies' generalization capabilities across a variety of tasks, it fails to address safety, a critical requirement for deployment on real-world systems. In this paper, we introduce a safety layer designed to constrain the action space of any generalist policy appropriately. Our approach uses ATACOM, a safe reinforcement learning algorithm that creates a safe action space and, therefore, ensures safe state transitions. By extending ATACOM to generalist policies, our method facilitates their deployment in safety-critical scenarios without requiring any specific safety fine-tuning. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this safety layer in an air hockey environment, where it prevents a puck-hitting agent from colliding with its surroundings, a failure observed in generalist policies.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2025

Scaling Off-Policy Reinforcement Learning with Batch and Weight Normalization

Reinforcement learning has achieved significant milestones, but sample efficiency remains a bottleneck for real-world applications. Recently, CrossQ has demonstrated state-of-the-art sample efficiency with a low update-to-data (UTD) ratio of 1. In this work, we explore CrossQ's scaling behavior with higher UTD ratios. We identify challenges in the training dynamics, which are emphasized by higher UTD ratios. To address these, we integrate weight normalization into the CrossQ framework, a solution that stabilizes training, has been shown to prevent potential loss of plasticity and keeps the effective learning rate constant. Our proposed approach reliably scales with increasing UTD ratios, achieving competitive performance across 25 challenging continuous control tasks on the DeepMind Control Suite and Myosuite benchmarks, notably the complex dog and humanoid environments. This work eliminates the need for drastic interventions, such as network resets, and offers a simple yet robust pathway for improving sample efficiency and scalability in model-free reinforcement learning.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Global Tensor Motion Planning

Batch planning is increasingly necessary to quickly produce diverse and quality motion plans for downstream learning applications, such as distillation and imitation learning. This paper presents Global Tensor Motion Planning (GTMP) -- a sampling-based motion planning algorithm comprising only tensor operations. We introduce a novel discretization structure represented as a random multipartite graph, enabling efficient vectorized sampling, collision checking, and search. We provide a theoretical investigation showing that GTMP exhibits probabilistic completeness while supporting modern GPU/TPU. Additionally, by incorporating smooth structures into the multipartite graph, GTMP directly plans smooth splines without requiring gradient-based optimization. Experiments on lidar-scanned occupancy maps and the MotionBenchMarker dataset demonstrate GTMP's computation efficiency in batch planning compared to baselines, underscoring GTMP's potential as a robust, scalable planner for diverse applications and large-scale robot learning tasks.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2024

Machine Learning with Physics Knowledge for Prediction: A Survey

This survey examines the broad suite of methods and models for combining machine learning with physics knowledge for prediction and forecast, with a focus on partial differential equations. These methods have attracted significant interest due to their potential impact on advancing scientific research and industrial practices by improving predictive models with small- or large-scale datasets and expressive predictive models with useful inductive biases. The survey has two parts. The first considers incorporating physics knowledge on an architectural level through objective functions, structured predictive models, and data augmentation. The second considers data as physics knowledge, which motivates looking at multi-task, meta, and contextual learning as an alternative approach to incorporating physics knowledge in a data-driven fashion. Finally, we also provide an industrial perspective on the application of these methods and a survey of the open-source ecosystem for physics-informed machine learning.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Function-Space Regularization for Deep Bayesian Classification

Bayesian deep learning approaches assume model parameters to be latent random variables and infer posterior distributions to quantify uncertainty, increase safety and trust, and prevent overconfident and unpredictable behavior. However, weight-space priors are model-specific, can be difficult to interpret and are hard to specify. Instead, we apply a Dirichlet prior in predictive space and perform approximate function-space variational inference. To this end, we interpret conventional categorical predictions from stochastic neural network classifiers as samples from an implicit Dirichlet distribution. By adapting the inference, the same function-space prior can be combined with different models without affecting model architecture or size. We illustrate the flexibility and efficacy of such a prior with toy experiments and demonstrate scalability, improved uncertainty quantification and adversarial robustness with large-scale image classification experiments.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Coherent Soft Imitation Learning

Imitation learning methods seek to learn from an expert either through behavioral cloning (BC) of the policy or inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) of the reward. Such methods enable agents to learn complex tasks from humans that are difficult to capture with hand-designed reward functions. Choosing BC or IRL for imitation depends on the quality and state-action coverage of the demonstrations, as well as additional access to the Markov decision process. Hybrid strategies that combine BC and IRL are not common, as initial policy optimization against inaccurate rewards diminishes the benefit of pretraining the policy with BC. This work derives an imitation method that captures the strengths of both BC and IRL. In the entropy-regularized ('soft') reinforcement learning setting, we show that the behaviour-cloned policy can be used as both a shaped reward and a critic hypothesis space by inverting the regularized policy update. This coherency facilitates fine-tuning cloned policies using the reward estimate and additional interactions with the environment. This approach conveniently achieves imitation learning through initial behaviour cloning, followed by refinement via RL with online or offline data sources. The simplicity of the approach enables graceful scaling to high-dimensional and vision-based tasks, with stable learning and minimal hyperparameter tuning, in contrast to adversarial approaches. For the open-source implementation and simulation results, see https://joemwatson.github.io/csil/.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Preferential monitoring site location in the Southern California Air Quality Basin

The preferential siting of the locations of monitors of hazardous environmental fields can lead to the serious underestimation of the impacts of those fields. In particular, human health effects can be severely underestimated when standard statistical are applied without appropriate adjustment. This report describes an extensive analysis of the siting of monitors for a network that measures air pollution PM10 in California's South Coast Air Basin SOCAB. That analysis uses EPA data collected during the 1986 to 2019 period. Background descriptions, including those published by the US EPA are provided. The analysis uses a very general and fast Monte Carlo test for preferential sampling developed by Dr Joe Watson, which confirms that the sites were preferentially sited, as would be expected, given the intended purpose of the network to detect noncompliance with air quality standards. Our findings demonstrate both the value of that algorithm for application where where such background knowledge is not available, and hence to situations in which standard statistical tools require modification.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2022

Inferring Smooth Control: Monte Carlo Posterior Policy Iteration with Gaussian Processes

Monte Carlo methods have become increasingly relevant for control of non-differentiable systems, approximate dynamics models and learning from data. These methods scale to high-dimensional spaces and are effective at the non-convex optimizations often seen in robot learning. We look at sample-based methods from the perspective of inference-based control, specifically posterior policy iteration. From this perspective, we highlight how Gaussian noise priors produce rough control actions that are unsuitable for physical robot deployment. Considering smoother Gaussian process priors, as used in episodic reinforcement learning and motion planning, we demonstrate how smoother model predictive control can be achieved using online sequential inference. This inference is realized through an efficient factorization of the action distribution and a novel means of optimizing the likelihood temperature to improve importance sampling accuracy. We evaluate this approach on several high-dimensional robot control tasks, matching the sample efficiency of prior heuristic methods while also ensuring smoothness. Simulation results can be seen at https://monte-carlo-ppi.github.io/.

cs.LG↗