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Joel A. Trent

Publications and source records attributed to Joel A. Trent.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

Invariant Image Reparameterisation: Bridging Symbolic and Numerical Methods for Identifiability Analysis, Model Reduction, and Prediction

Structural and practical parameter non-identifiability issues are common when mathematical models are used to interpret data. Such issues motivate model reparameterisation and reduction methods. Here, we consider Invariant Image Reparameterisation (IIR), which asks when symbolic reparameterisation conditions can be replaced by numerical derivative calculations at a single reference point. The central object is the invariant image: a reduced, basis-independent representation of the parameter combinations controlling observable model behaviour. We show that when a one-to-one componentwise transformation makes observable behaviour depend only on fixed linear combinations of the transformed parameters, a single numerical Jacobian determines the associated lower-dimensional reparameterisation space. This includes models depending on monomial combinations of the original parameters. We also give a first-order invariance condition that distinguishes minimal from non-minimal but exact reductions via the invariant part of the local null space. In structurally identifiable but practically weakly informed settings, the same calculations separate strongly and weakly informed parameter combinations. The invariant image admits multiple coordinate representations: the SVD gives a default orthonormal basis ordered by local identifiability, while sparse monomial bases are often more interpretable. Treating these coordinates as interest parameters in Profile-Wise Analysis gives likelihood-based uncertainty quantification and prediction. We demonstrate the method on parameterised normal models with Poisson-limit, extended Poisson-limit, and non-limit cases, and on the repressilator, a nonlinear differential equation model of gene regulation. A Julia implementation of IIR, with these and further examples, is available at https://github.com/omaclaren/reparam.

stat.AP↗

Calculating incidence of Influenza-like and COVID-like symptoms from Flutracking participatory survey data

This article describes a new method for estimating weekly incidence (new onset) of symptoms consistent with Influenza and COVID-19, using data from the Flutracking survey. The method mitigates some of the known self-selection and symptom-reporting biases present in existing approaches to this type of participatory longitudinal survey data. The key novel steps in the analysis are: 1) Identifying new onset of symptoms for three different Symptom Groupings: COVID-like illness (CLI1+, CLI2+), and Influenza-like illness (ILI), for responses reported in the Flutracking survey. 2) Adjusting for symptom reporting bias by restricting the analysis to a sub-set of responses from those participants who have consistently responded for a number of weeks prior to the analysis week. 3) Weighting responses by age to adjust for self-selection bias in order to account for the under- and over-representation of different age groups amongst the survey participants. This uses the survey package in R. 4) Constructing 95% point-wise confidence bands for incidence estimates using weighted logistic regression from the survey package in R. In addition to describing these steps, the article demonstrates an application of this method to Flutracking data for the 12 months from 27th April 2020 until 25th April 2021.

stat.ME↗