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Joel Leja

Publications and source records attributed to Joel Leja.

At least 145 records · Page 8Linked to original sources

Stellar Half-Mass Radii of $0.5<z<2.3$ Galaxies: Comparison with JWST/NIRCam Half-Light Radii

We use CEERS JWST/NIRCam imaging to measure rest-frame near-IR light profiles of $>$500 $M_\star>10^{10}~M_\odot$ galaxies in the redshift range $0.5 10^{11}~M_\odot$) quiescent galaxies between $z=0.5$ and $z=2.3$, again comparing $R_{\rm{opt}}$, \rmass~and \rmassd. We conclude that the main tenets of the size evolution narrative established over the past 20 years, based on rest-frame optical light profile analysis, still hold in the era of JWST/NIRCam observations in the rest-frame near-IR.

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As Simple as Possible but No Simpler: Optimizing the Performance of Neural Net Emulators for Galaxy SED Fitting

Artificial neural network emulators have been demonstrated to be a very computationally efficient method to rapidly generate galaxy spectral energy distributions (SEDs), for parameter inference or otherwise. Using a highly flexible and fast mathematical structure, they can learn the nontrivial relationship between input galaxy parameters and output observables. However, they do so imperfectly, and small errors in flux prediction can yield large differences in recovered parameters. In this work, we investigate the relationship between an emulator's execution time, uncertainties, correlated errors, and ability to recover accurate posteriors. We show that emulators can recover consistent results to traditional fits, with precision of $25\!-\!40\%$ in posterior medians for stellar mass, stellar metallicity, star formation rate, and stellar age. We find that emulation uncertainties scale with an emulator's width $N$ as $\propto N^{-1}$ while execution time scales as $\propto N^2$, resulting in an inherent tradeoff between execution time and emulation uncertainties. We also find that emulators with uncertainties smaller than observational uncertaities are able to recover accurate posteriors for most parameters without a significant increase in catastrophic outliers. Furthermore, we demonstrate that small architectures can produce flux residuals that have significant correlations, which can create dangerous systematic errors in colors. Finally, we show that the distributions chosen for generating training sets can have a large effect on emulators' ability to accurately fit rare objects. Selecting the optimal architecture and training set for an emulator will minimize the computational requirements for fitting near-future large-scale galaxy surveys.

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UNCOVER: Candidate Red Active Galactic Nuclei at 3<z<7 with JWST and ALMA

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) is revolutionizing our knowledge of $z>5$ galaxies and their actively accreting black holes. Using the JWST Cycle 1 Treasury program Ultradeep NIRSpec and NIRCam ObserVations before the Epoch of Reionization (UNCOVER) in the lensing field Abell 2744, we report the identification of a sample of little red dots at $3 < z_{\rm{phot}} < 7$ that likely contain highly-reddened accreting supermassive black holes. Using a NIRCam-only selection to F444W$<27.7$ mag, we find 26 sources over the $\sim45$ arcmin$^{2}$ field that are blue in F115W$-$F200W$\sim0$ (or $β_{\rm UV}\sim-2.0$ for $f_λ \propto λ^β$), red in F200W$-$F444W = $1-4$ ($β_{\rm opt} \sim +2.0$), and are dominated by a point-source like central component. Of the 20 sources with deep ALMA 1.2-mm coverage, none are detected individually or in a stack. For the majority of the sample, SED fits to the JWST+ALMA observations prefer models with hot dust rather than obscured star-formation to reproduce the red NIRCam colors and ALMA 1.2-mm non-detections. While compact dusty star formation can not be ruled out, the combination of extremely small sizes ($\langle r_e \rangle\approx50$ pc after correction for magnification), red rest-frame optical slopes, and hot dust can by explained by reddened broad-line active galactic nuclei (AGNs). Our targets have faint $M_{\rm 1450} \approx -14\ \, {\rm to} -18$ mag but inferred bolometric luminosities of $L_{\rm bol} = 10^{43}-10^{46}$ erg/s, reflecting their obscured nature. If the candidates are confirmed as AGNs with upcoming UNCOVER spectroscopy, then we have found an abundant population of reddened luminous AGN that are at least ten times more numerous than UV-luminous AGN at the same intrinsic bolometric luminosity.

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JWST UNCOVER: Extremely red and compact object at$z_{\mathrm{phot}}\simeq7.6$ triply imaged by Abell 2744

Recent JWST/NIRCam imaging taken for the ultra-deep UNCOVER program reveals a very red dropout object at $z_{\mathrm{phot}}\simeq7.6$, triply imaged by the galaxy cluster Abell 2744 ($z_{\mathrm{d}}=0.308$). All three images are very compact, i.e. unresolved, with a de-lensed size upper-limit of $r_{e}\lesssim35$ pc. The images have apparent magnitudes of $m_{\mathrm{F444W}}\sim25-26$ AB, and the magnification-corrected absolute UV magnitude of the source is $M_{\mathrm{UV},1450}=-16.81\pm0.09$. From the sum of observed fluxes and from a spectral energy distribution (SED) analysis, we obtain estimates of the bolometric luminosities of the source of $L_{\mathrm{bol}}\gtrsim10^{43} \frac{\mathrm{erg}}{\mathrm{s}}$ and $L_{\mathrm{bol}}\sim10^{44}-10^{46} \frac{\mathrm{erg}}{\mathrm{s}}$, respectively. Based on its compact, point-like appearance, its position in color-color space and the SED analysis, we tentatively conclude that this object is a UV-faint dust-obscured quasar-like object, i.e. an active galactic nucleus (AGN) at high redshift. We also discuss other alternative origins for the object's emission features, including a massive star cluster, Population III, supermassive, or dark stars, or a direct-collapse black hole. Although populations of red galaxies at similar photometric redshifts have been detected with JWST, this object is unique in that its high-redshift nature is corroborated geometrically by lensing, that it is unresolved despite being magnified -- and thus intrinsically even more compact -- and that it occupies notably distinct regions in both size-luminosity and color-color space. Planned UNCOVER JWST/NIRSpec observations, scheduled in Cycle 1, will enable a more detailed analysis of this object.

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The Demographics, Stellar Populations, and Star Formation Histories of Fast Radio Burst Host Galaxies: Implications for the Progenitors

We present a comprehensive catalog of observations and stellar population properties for 23 highly secure host galaxies of fast radio bursts (FRBs). Our sample comprises six repeating FRBs and 17 apparent non-repeaters. We present 82 new photometric and eight new spectroscopic observations of these hosts. Using stellar population synthesis modeling and employing non-parametric star formation histories (SFHs), we find that FRB hosts have a median stellar mass of $\approx 10^{9.9}\,M_{\odot}$, mass-weighted age $\approx 5.1$ Gyr, and ongoing star formation rate $\approx 1.3\,M_{\odot}$ yr$^{-1}$ but span wide ranges in all properties. Classifying the hosts by degree of star formation, we find that 87% (20/23 hosts) are star-forming, two are transitioning, and one is quiescent. The majority trace the star-forming main sequence of galaxies, but at least three FRBs in our sample originate in less active environments (two non-repeaters and one repeater). Across all modeled properties, we find no statistically significant distinction between the hosts of repeaters and non-repeaters. However, the hosts of repeating FRBs generally extend to lower stellar masses, and the hosts of non-repeaters arise in more optically luminous galaxies. While four of the galaxies with the most clear and prolonged rises in their SFHs all host repeating FRBs, demonstrating heightened star formation activity in the last $\lesssim 100$ Myr, one non-repeating host shows this SFH as well. Our results support progenitor models with short delay channels (i.e., magnetars formed via core-collapse supernova) for most FRBs, but the presence of some FRBs in less active environments suggests a fraction form through more delayed channels.

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UNCOVERing the extended strong lensing structures of Abell 2744 with the deepest JWST imaging

We present a new parametric lens model for the massive galaxy cluster Abell~2744 based on the new ultra-deep JWST imaging taken in the framework of the UNCOVER program. These observations constitute the deepest JWST images of a lensing cluster to date, adding to the existing deep Hubble Space Telescope (HST) images and the recent JWST ERS and DDT data taken for this field. The wide field-of-view of UNCOVER ($\sim45$ arcmin$^2$) extends beyond the cluster's well-studied central core and reveals a spectacular wealth of prominent lensed features around two massive cluster sub-structures in the north and north-west, where no multiple images were previously known. The 75 newly uncovered multiple images and candidates of 16 sources allow us, for the first time, to constrain the lensing properties and total mass distribution around these extended cluster structures using strong lensing (SL). Our model yields an effective Einstein radius of $θ_{E,\mathrm{main}}\simeq23''$ for the main cluster core (for $z_{\mathrm{s}}=2$), enclosing a mass of $M(θ<θ_{E,\mathrm{main}})\simeq7.7\times10^{13}$ M$_{\odot}$, and $θ_{E,\mathrm{NW}}\simeq13''$ for the newly discovered north-western SL structure enclosing $M(θ<θ_{E,\mathrm{NW}})\simeq2.2\times10^{13}$ M$_{\odot}$. The northern clump is somewhat less massive with $θ_{E,\mathrm{N}}\simeq7''$ enclosing $M(θ<θ_{E,\mathrm{N}})\simeq8\times10^{12}$ M$_{\odot}$. We find the northern sub-structures of Abell~2744 to broadly agree with the findings from weak lensing (WL) and align with the filamentary structure found by these previous studies. Our model in particular reveals a large area of high magnifications between the various cluster structures, which will be paramount for lensed galaxy studies in the UNCOVER field. The model is made publicly available to accompany the first UNCOVER data release.

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JWST UNCOVER: Discovery of $z>9$ Galaxy Candidates Behind the Lensing Cluster Abell 2744

We present the results of a search for high-redshift ($z>9$) galaxy candidates in the JWST UNCOVER survey, using deep NIRCam and NIRISS imaging in 7 bands over $\sim45$ arcmin$^2$ and ancillary HST observations. The NIRCam observations reach a $5-σ$ limiting magnitude of $\sim 29.2$ AB. The identification of high$-z$ candidates relies on a combination of a dropout selection and photometric redshifts. We find 16 candidates at $9 9$. A few galaxies at $z\sim9-10$ appear to show a clear Balmer break between the F356W and F444W/F410M bands, which helps constrain their stellar mass. We estimate blue UV continuum slopes between $β=-1.8$ and $-2.3$, typical for early galaxies at $z>9$ but not as extreme as the bluest recently discovered sources. We also find evidence for a rapid redshift-evolution of the mass-luminosity relation and a redshift-evolution of the UV continuum slope for a given range of intrinsic magnitude, in line with theoretical predictions. These findings suggest that deeper JWST observations are needed to reach the fainter galaxy population at those early epochs, and follow-up spectroscopy will help better constrain the physical properties and star formation histories of a larger sample of galaxies.

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Inferring More from Less: Prospector as a Photometric Redshift Engine in the Era of JWST

The advent of the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) signals a new era in exploring galaxies in the high-$z$ universe. Current and upcoming JWST imaging will potentially detect galaxies out to $z \sim 20$, creating a new urgency in the quest to infer accurate photometric redshifts (photo-$z$) for individual galaxies from their spectral energy distributions, as well as masses, ages and star formation rates. Here we illustrate the utility of informed priors encoding previous observations of galaxies across cosmic time in achieving these goals. We construct three joint priors encoding empirical constraints of redshifts, masses, and star formation histories in the galaxy population within the \prospector\ Bayesian inference framework. In contrast with uniform priors, our model breaks an age-mass-redshift degeneracy, and thus reduces the mean bias error in masses from 0.3 to 0.1 dex, and in ages from 0.6 to 0.2 dex in tests done on mock JWST observations. Notably, our model recovers redshifts at least as accurately as the state-of-the-art photo-$z$ code \eazy\ in deep JWST fields, but with two advantages: tailoring a model based on a particular survey renders mostly unnecessary given well-motivated priors; obtaining joint posteriors describing stellar, active galactic nuclei, gas, and dust contributions becomes possible. We can now confidently use the joint distribution to propagate full non-Gaussian redshift uncertainties into inferred properties of the galaxy population. This model, ``\prospector-$β$'', is intended for fitting galaxy photometry where the redshift is unknown, and will be instrumental in ensuring the maximum science return from forthcoming photometric surveys with JWST. The code is made publicly available online as a part of \prospector.

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Early JWST imaging reveals strong optical and NIR color gradients in galaxies at $z\sim2$ driven mostly by dust

Recent studies have shown that galaxies at cosmic noon are redder in the center and bluer in the outskirts, mirroring results in the local universe. These color gradients could be caused by either gradients in the stellar age or dust opacity; however, distinguishing between these two causes is impossible with rest-frame optical photometry alone. Here we investigate the underlying causes of the gradients from spatially-resolved rest-frame $U-V$ vs. $V-J$ color-color diagrams, measured from early observations with the James Webb Space Telescope. We use $1\, μm - 4\, μm$ NIRCam photometry from the CEERS survey of a sample of 54 galaxies with $M_* / M_\odot>10$ at redshifts $1.7<z<2.3$ selected from the 3D-HST catalog. We model the light profiles in the F115W, F200W and F356W NIRCam bands using \texttt{imcascade}, a Bayesian implementation of the Multi-Gaussian expansion (MGE) technique which flexibly represents galaxy profiles using a series of Gaussians. We construct resolved rest-frame $U-V$ and $V-J$ color profiles. The majority of star-forming galaxies have negative gradients (i.e. redder in the center, bluer in the outskirts) in both $U-V$ and $V-J$ colors consistent with radially decreasing dust attenuation. A smaller population (roughly 15\%) of star-forming galaxies have positive $U-V$ but negative $V-J$ gradients implying centrally concentrated star-formation. For quiescent galaxies we find a diversity of UVJ color profiles, with roughly one-third showing star-formation in their center. This study showcases the potential of JWST to study the resolved stellar populations of galaxies at cosmic noon.

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Flexible Models for Galaxy Star Formation Histories Both Shift and Scramble the Optical Color-M/L Relationship

The remarkably tight relationship between galaxy optical color and stellar mass-to-light ratio ($M_*/L$) is widely used for efficient stellar mass estimates. However, it remains unclear whether this low scatter comes from a natural order in the galaxy population, or whether it is driven by simple relationships in the models used to describe them. In this work we investigate the origins of the relationship by contrasting the derived relationship from a simple 4-parameter SED model with a more sophisticated 14-dimensional Prospector-$α$ model including nonparametric star formation histories (SFHs). We apply these models to 63,430 galaxies at $0.5<z<3$ and fit a hierarchical Bayesian model (HBM) to the population distribution in the $(g-r)$--$\log(M/L_g)$ plane. We find that Prospector-$α$ infers systematically higher $M_*/L$ by 0.12 dex, a result of nonparametric SFHs producing older ages, and also systematically redder rest-frame $(g-r)$ by 0.06 mag owing to the contribution from nebular emission. Surprisingly, the combined effects of the $M_*/L$ and $(g-r)$ offsets produce a similar average relationship for the two models, though Prospector-$α$ produces a higher scatter of 0.28 dex compared to the simple model of 0.12 dex. Also, unlike the simple model, the Prospector-$α$ relationship shows substantial redshift evolution due to stellar aging. These expected and testable effects produce overall older and redder galaxies, though the color--$M_*/L$ relationship is measured only at $0.5<z<3$. Finally, we demonstrate that the HBM produces substantial shrinkage in the individual posteriors of faint galaxies, an important first step toward using the observed galaxy population directly to inform the SED fitting priors.

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Molecular Gas Reservoirs in Massive Quiescent Galaxies at $\mathrm{z\sim0.7}$ Linked to Late Time Star Formation

We explore how the presence of detectable molecular gas depends on the inferred star formation histories (SFHs) in 8 massive, quiescent galaxies at $\mathrm{z\sim0.7}$. Half of the sample have clear detections of molecular gas, traced by CO(2-1). We find that the molecular gas content is unrelated to the rate of star formation decline prior to the most recent 1 Gyr, suggesting that the gas reservoirs are not leftover from their primary star formation epoch. However, the recent SFHs of CO-detected galaxies demonstrate evidence for secondary bursts of star formation in their last Gyr. The fraction of stellar mass formed in these secondary bursts ranges from $\mathrm{f_{burst}\approx0.3-6\%}$, and ended between $\mathrm{t_{end\mbox{-}burst}\approx0-330~Myr}$ ago. The CO-detected galaxies form a higher fraction of mass in the last Gyr ($\mathrm{f_{M_{1Gyr}}=2.6\pm1.8\%}$) compared to the CO-undetected galaxies ($\mathrm{f_{M_{1Gyr}}=0.2\pm0.1\%}$). The galaxies with gas reservoirs have enhanced late-time star formation, highlighting this as a contributing factor to the observed heterogeneity in the gas reservoirs in high-redshift quiescent galaxies. We find that the amount of gas and star formation driven by these secondary bursts are inconsistent with that expected from dry minor mergers, and instead are likely driven by recently-accreted gas i.e., gas-rich minor mergers. This conclusion would not have been made based on $\mathrm{SFR_{UV+IR}}$ measurements alone, highlighting the power of detailed SFH modeling in the interpretation of gas reservoirs. Larger samples are needed to understand the frequency of low-level rejuvenation among quiescent galaxies at intermediate redshifts, and to what extent this drives the diversity of molecular gas reservoirs.

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Star formation histories of UV-luminous galaxies at $z \simeq 6.8$: implications for stellar mass assembly at early cosmic times

The variety of star formation histories (SFHs) of $z\gtrsim6$ galaxies provides important insights into early star formation, but has been difficult to systematically quantify. Some observations suggest that many $z\sim6-9$ galaxies are dominated by $\gtrsim200$ Myr stellar populations, implying significant star formation at $z\gtrsim9$, while others find that most reionization era galaxies are $\lesssim10$ Myr, consistent with little $z\gtrsim9$ star formation. Here, we quantify the distribution of ages of UV-bright ($-22.5\lesssim M_{UV}\lesssim-21$) galaxies colour-selected to lie at $z\simeq6.6-6.9$, an ideal redshift range to systematically study the SFHs of reionization era galaxies with ground-based observatories and Spitzer. We infer galaxy properties with two SED modelling codes and compare results, finding that stellar masses are largely insensitive to the model, but the inferred ages can vary by an order of magnitude. We infer a distribution of ages assuming a simple, parametric SFH model, finding a median age of $\sim30-70$ Myr depending on SED model. We quantify the fractions of $\leq10$ Myr and $\geq250$ Myr galaxies, finding that these systems comprise $\sim15-30$ percent and $\sim20-25$ percent of the population, respectively. With a flexible SFH model, the shapes of the SFHs are consistent with those implied by the simple model (e.g. young galaxies have rapidly rising SFHs). However, stellar masses can differ significantly, with those of young systems sometimes being more than an order of magnitude larger with the flexible SFH. We quantify the implications of these results for $z\gtrsim9$ stellar mass assembly and discuss improvements expected from JWST.

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A population of red candidate massive galaxies ~600 Myr after the Big Bang

Galaxies with stellar masses as high as $\sim 10^{11}$ solar masses have been identified out to redshifts $z \sim 6$, approximately one billion years after the Big Bang. It has been difficult to find massive galaxies at even earlier times, as the Balmer break region, which is needed for accurate mass estimates, is redshifted to wavelengths beyond $2.5\mum$. Here we make use of the $1-5\mum$ coverage of the JWST early release observations to search for intrinsically red galaxies in the first ~750 million years of cosmic history. In the survey area, we find six candidate massive galaxies (stellar mass $>10^{10}$ solar masses) at $7.4 < z < 9.1$, 500 - 700 Myr after the Big Bang, including one galaxy with a possible stellar mass of $\sim 10^{11}$ solar masses. If verified with spectroscopy, the stellar mass density in massive galaxies would be much higher than anticipated from previous studies based on rest-frame ultraviolet-selected samples.

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Monochromatic globular clusters as a critical test of formation models for the dark matter deficient galaxies NGC1052-DF2 and NGC1052-DF4

It was recently proposed that the dark matter-deficient ultra-diffuse galaxies DF2 and DF4 in the NGC1052 group could be the products of a "bullet dwarf" collision between two gas-rich progenitor galaxies. In this model DF2 and DF4 formed at the same time in the immediate aftermath of the collision, and a strong prediction is that their globular clusters should have nearly identical stellar populations. Here we test this prediction by measuring accurate F606W-F814W colors from deep HST/ACS imaging. We find that the clusters are extremely homogeneous. The mean color difference between the globular clusters in DF2 and DF4 is $-0.003\pm 0.005$ mag and the observed scatter for the combined sample of 18 clusters with $M_V<-8.6$ in both galaxies is $0.015 \pm 0.002$ mag. After accounting for observational uncertainties and stochastic cluster-to-cluster variation in the number of red giants, the remaining scatter is $0.008^{+0.005}_{-0.006}$ mag. Both the color difference and the scatter are an order of magnitude smaller than in other dwarf galaxies, and we infer that the bullet scenario passes an important test that could have falsified it. No other formation models have predicted this extreme uniformity of the globular clusters in the two galaxies. We find that the galaxies themselves are slightly redder than the clusters, consistent with a previously-measured metallicity difference. Numerical simulations have shown that such differences are expected in the bullet scenario, as the galaxies continued to self-enrich after the formation of the globular clusters.

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The Art of Measuring Physical Parameters in Galaxies: A Critical Assessment of Spectral Energy Distribution Fitting Techniques

The study of galaxy evolution hinges on our ability to interpret multi-wavelength galaxy observations in terms of their physical properties. To do this, we rely on spectral energy distribution (SED) models which allow us to infer physical parameters from spectrophotometric data. In recent years, thanks to the wide and deep multi-waveband galaxy surveys, the volume of high quality data have significantly increased. Alongside the increased data, algorithms performing SED fitting have improved, including better modeling prescriptions, newer templates, and more extensive sampling in wavelength space. We present a comprehensive analysis of different SED fitting codes including their methods and output with the aim of measuring the uncertainties caused by the modeling assumptions. We apply fourteen of the most commonly used SED fitting codes on samples from the CANDELS photometric catalogs at z~1 and z~3. We find agreement on the stellar mass, while we observe some discrepancies in the star formation rate (SFR) and dust attenuation results. To explore the differences and biases among the codes, we explore the impact of the various modeling assumptions as they are set in the codes (e.g., star formation histories, nebular, dust, and AGN models) on the derived stellar masses, SFRs, and A_V values. We then assess the difference among the codes on the SFR-stellar mass relation and we measure the contribution to the uncertainties by the modeling choices (i.e., the modeling uncertainties) in stellar mass (~0.1dex), SFR (~0.3dex), and dust attenuation (~0.3mag). Finally, we present some resources summarizing best practices in SED fitting.

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Short GRB Host Galaxies. II. A Legacy Sample of Redshifts, Stellar Population Properties, and Implications for their Neutron Star Merger Origins

We present the stellar population properties of 69 short gamma-ray burst (GRB) host galaxies, representing the largest uniformly-modeled sample to-date. Using the Prospector stellar population inference code, we jointly fit photometry and/or spectroscopy of each host galaxy. We find a population median redshift of $z=0.64^{+0.83}_{-0.32}$ ($68\%$ confidence), including 10 new or revised photometric redshifts at $z\gtrsim1$. We further find a median mass-weighted age of $t_m=0.8^{+2.71}_{-0.53}$Gyr, stellar mass of $\log(M_*/M_\odot)=9.69^{+0.75}_{-0.65}$, star formation rate of SFR=$1.44^{+9.37}_{-1.35}M_\odot$yr$^{-1}$, stellar metallicity of $\log(Z_*/Z_\odot)=-0.38^{+0.44}_{-0.42}$, and dust attenuation of $A_V=0.43^{+0.85}_{-0.36}$~mag (68\% confidence). Overall, the majority of short GRB hosts are star-forming ($\approx84\%$), with small fractions that are either transitioning ($\approx6\%$) or quiescent ($\approx10\%$); however, we observe a much larger fraction ($\approx40\%$) of quiescent and transitioning hosts at $z\lesssim0.25$, commensurate with galaxy evolution. We find that short GRB hosts populate the star-forming main sequence of normal field galaxies, but do not include as many high-mass galaxies, implying that their binary neutron star (BNS) merger progenitors are dependent on a combination of host star formation and stellar mass. The distribution of ages and redshifts implies a broad delay-time distribution, with a fast-merging channel at $z>1$ and a decreased BNS formation efficiency at lower redshifts. If short GRB hosts are representative of BNS merger hosts within the horizon of current gravitational wave detectors, these results can inform future searches for electromagnetic counterparts. All of the data and modeling products are available on the BRIGHT website.

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Forward modeling of galaxy populations for cosmological redshift distribution inference

We present a forward modeling framework for estimating galaxy redshift distributions from photometric surveys. Our forward model is composed of: a detailed population model describing the intrinsic distribution of physical characteristics of galaxies, encoding galaxy evolution physics; a stellar population synthesis model connecting the physical properties of galaxies to their photometry; a data-model characterizing the observation and calibration processes for a given survey; and, explicit treatment of selection cuts, both into the main analysis sample and subsequent sorting into tomographic redshift bins. This approach has the appeal that it does not rely on spectroscopic calibration data, provides explicit control over modeling assumptions, and builds a direct bridge between photo-$z$ inference and galaxy evolution physics. In addition to redshift distributions, forward modeling provides a framework for drawing robust inferences about the statistical properties of the galaxy population more generally. We demonstrate the utility of forward modeling by estimating the redshift distributions for the Galaxy And Mass Assembly (GAMA) and Vimos VLT Deep (VVDS) surveys, validating against their spectroscopic redshifts. Our baseline model is able to predict tomographic redshift distributions for GAMA and VVDS with a bias of $Δz \lesssim 0.003$ and $Δz \simeq 0.01$ on the mean redshift respectively -- comfortably accurate enough for Stage III cosmological surveys -- without any hyper-parameter tuning (i.e., prior to doing any fitting to those data). We anticipate that with additional hyper-parameter fitting and modeling improvements, forward modeling can provide a path to accurate redshift distribution inference for Stage IV surveys.

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Beyond UVJ: Color Selection of Galaxies in the JWST Era

We present a new rest-frame color-color selection method using "synthetic $u_s-g_s$ and $g_s-i_s$'', $(ugi)_s$ colors to identify star-forming and quiescent galaxies. Our method is similar to the widely-used $U-V$ versus $V-J$ ($UVJ$) diagram. However, $UVJ$ suffers known systematics. Spectroscopic campaigns have shown that $UVJ$-selected quiescent samples at $z \gtrsim 3$ include $\sim 10-30\%$ contamination from galaxies with dust-obscured star formation and strong emission lines. Moreover, at $z>3$, $UVJ$ colors are extrapolated because the rest-frame J-band shifts beyond the coverage of the deepest bandpasses at $< 5~μm$ (typically $Spitzer$/IRAC 4.5 $μm$ or future $JWST$/NIRCam observations). We demonstrate that $(ugi)_s$ offers improvements to $UVJ$ at $z>3$, and can be applied to galaxies in the $JWST$ era. We apply $(ugi)_s$ selection to galaxies at $0.5<z<6$ from the (observed) 3D-HST and UltraVISTA catalogs, and to the (simulated) JAGUAR catalogs. We show that extrapolation can affect $(V-J)_0$ color by up to 1 magnitude, but changes $(u_s-g_s)_0$ color by $\leq$ 0.2 mag, even at $z\simeq 6$. While $(ugi)_s$-selected quiescent samples are comparable to $UVJ$ in completeness (both achieve $\sim$85-90% at $z=3-3.5$), $(ugi)_s$ reduces contamination in quiescent samples by nearly a factor of two, from $\simeq$35% to $\simeq$17% at $z=3$, and from $\simeq $60% to $\simeq $33% at $z=6$. This leads to improvements in the true-to-false-positive ratio (TP/FP), where we find TP/FP $\gtrsim$ 2.2 for $(ugi)_s$ at $z \simeq 3.5 - 6$, compared to TP/FP $<$ 1 for $UVJ$-selected samples. This indicates that contaminants will outnumber true quiescent galaxies in $UVJ$ at these redshifts, while $(ugi)_s$ will provide higher-fidelity samples.

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