arXiv subjects

Johan Schubert

Publications and source records attributed to Johan Schubert.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Autonomous generation of different courses of action in mechanized combat operations

In this paper, we propose a methodology designed to support decision-making during the execution phase of military ground combat operations, with a focus on one's actions. This methodology generates and evaluates recommendations for various courses of action for a mechanized battalion, commencing with an initial set assessed by their anticipated outcomes. It systematically produces thousands of individual action alternatives, followed by evaluations aimed at identifying alternative courses of action with superior outcomes. These alternatives are appraised in light of the opponent's status and actions, considering unit composition, force ratios, types of offense and defense, and anticipated advance rates. Field manuals evaluate battle outcomes and advancement rates. The processes of generation and evaluation work concurrently, yielding a variety of alternative courses of action. This approach facilitates the management of new course generation based on previously evaluated actions. As the combat unfolds and conditions evolve, revised courses of action are formulated for the decision-maker within a sequential decision-making framework.

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arXiv2025

Active Inference for an Intelligent Agent in Autonomous Reconnaissance Missions

We develop an active inference route-planning method for the autonomous control of intelligent agents. The aim is to reconnoiter a geographical area to maintain a common operational picture. To achieve this, we construct an evidence map that reflects our current understanding of the situation, incorporating both positive and "negative" sensor observations of possible target objects collected over time, and diffusing the evidence across the map as time progresses. The generative model of active inference uses Dempster-Shafer theory and a Gaussian sensor model, which provides input to the agent. The generative process employs a Bayesian approach to update a posterior probability distribution. We calculate the variational free energy for all positions within the area by assessing the divergence between a pignistic probability distribution of the evidence map and a posterior probability distribution of a target object based on the observations, including the level of surprise associated with receiving new observations. Using the free energy, we direct the agents' movements in a simulation by taking an incremental step toward a position that minimizes the free energy. This approach addresses the challenge of exploration and exploitation, allowing agents to balance searching extensive areas of the geographical map while tracking identified target objects.

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arXiv2004

Comparing Multi-Target Trackers on Different Force Unit Levels

Consider the problem of tracking a set of moving targets. Apart from the tracking result, it is often important to know where the tracking fails, either to steer sensors to that part of the state-space, or to inform a human operator about the status and quality of the obtained information. An intuitive quality measure is the correlation between two tracking results based on uncorrelated observations. In the case of Bayesian trackers such a correlation measure could be the Kullback-Leibler difference. We focus on a scenario with a large number of military units moving in some terrain. The units are observed by several types of sensors and "meta-sensors" with force aggregation capabilities. The sensors register units of different size. Two separate multi-target probability hypothesis density (PHD) particle filters are used to track some type of units (e.g., companies) and their sub-units (e.g., platoons), respectively, based on observations of units of those sizes. Each observation is used in one filter only. Although the state-space may well be the same in both filters, the posterior PHD distributions are not directly comparable -- one unit might correspond to three or four spatially distributed sub-units. Therefore, we introduce a mapping function between distributions for different unit size, based on doctrine knowledge of unit configuration. The mapped distributions can now be compared -- locally or globally -- using some measure, which gives the correlation between two PHD distributions in a bounded volume of the state-space. To locate areas where the tracking fails, a discretized quality map of the state-space can be generated by applying the measure locally to different parts of the space.

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arXiv2003

Evidential Force Aggregation

In this paper we develop an evidential force aggregation method intended for classification of evidential intelligence into recognized force structures. We assume that the intelligence has already been partitioned into clusters and use the classification method individually in each cluster. The classification is based on a measure of fitness between template and fused intelligence that makes it possible to handle intelligence reports with multiple nonspecific and uncertain propositions. With this measure we can aggregate on a level-by-level basis, starting from general intelligence to achieve a complete force structure with recognized units on all hierarchical levels.

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arXiv2003

On Nonspecific Evidence

When simultaneously reasoning with evidences about several different events it is necessary to separate the evidence according to event. These events should then be handled independently. However, when propositions of evidences are weakly specified in the sense that it may not be certain to which event they are referring, this may not be directly possible. In this paper a criterion for partitioning evidences into subsets representing events is established. This criterion, derived from the conflict within each subset, involves minimising a criterion function for the overall conflict of the partition. An algorithm based on characteristics of the criterion function and an iterative optimisation among partitionings of evidences is proposed.

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arXiv2003

Dempster's Rule for Evidence Ordered in a Complete Directed Acyclic Graph

For the case of evidence ordered in a complete directed acyclic graph this paper presents a new algorithm with lower computational complexity for Dempster's rule than that of step-by-step application of Dempster's rule. In this problem, every original pair of evidences, has a corresponding evidence against the simultaneous belief in both propositions. In this case, it is uncertain whether the propositions of any two evidences are in logical conflict. The original evidences are associated with the vertices and the additional evidences are associated with the edges. The original evidences are ordered, i.e., for every pair of evidences it is determinable which of the two evidences is the earlier one. We are interested in finding the most probable completely specified path through the graph, where transitions are possible only from lower- to higher-ranked vertices. The path is here a representation for a sequence of states, for instance a sequence of snapshots of a physical object's track. A completely specified path means that the path includes no other vertices than those stated in the path representation, as opposed to an incompletely specified path that may also include other vertices than those stated. In a hierarchical network of all subsets of the frame, i.e., of all incompletely specified paths, the original and additional evidences support subsets that are not disjoint, thus it is not possible to prune the network to a tree. Instead of propagating belief, the new algorithm reasons about the logical conditions of a completely specified path through the graph. The new algorithm is O(|THETA| log |THETA|), compared to O(|THETA| ** log |THETA|) of the classic brute force algorithm.

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arXiv2003

Finding a Posterior Domain Probability Distribution by Specifying Nonspecific Evidence

This article is an extension of the results of two earlier articles. In [J. Schubert, On nonspecific evidence, Int. J. Intell. Syst. 8 (1993) 711-725] we established within Dempster-Shafer theory a criterion function called the metaconflict function. With this criterion we can partition into subsets a set of several pieces of evidence with propositions that are weakly specified in the sense that it may be uncertain to which event a proposition is referring. In a second article [J. Schubert, Specifying nonspecific evidence, in Cluster-based specification techniques in Dempster-Shafer theory for an evidential intelligence analysis of multiple target tracks, Ph.D. Thesis, TRITA-NA-9410, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, 1994, ISBN 91-7170-801-4] we not only found the most plausible subset for each piece of evidence, we also found the plausibility for every subset that this piece of evidence belongs to the subset. In this article we aim to find a posterior probability distribution regarding the number of subsets. We use the idea that each piece of evidence in a subset supports the existence of that subset to the degree that this piece of evidence supports anything at all. From this we can derive a bpa that is concerned with the question of how many subsets we have. That bpa can then be combined with a given prior domain probability distribution in order to obtain the sought-after posterior domain distribution.

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arXiv2003

Cluster-based Specification Techniques in Dempster-Shafer Theory

When reasoning with uncertainty there are many situations where evidences are not only uncertain but their propositions may also be weakly specified in the sense that it may not be certain to which event a proposition is referring. It is then crucial not to combine such evidences in the mistaken belief that they are referring to the same event. This situation would become manageable if the evidences could be clustered into subsets representing events that should be handled separately. In an earlier article we established within Dempster-Shafer theory a criterion function called the metaconflict function. With this criterion we can partition a set of evidences into subsets. Each subset representing a separate event. In this article we will not only find the most plausible subset for each piece of evidence, we will also find the plausibility for every subset that the evidence belongs to the subset. Also, when the number of subsets are uncertain we aim to find a posterior probability distribution regarding the number of subsets.

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arXiv2003

Cluster-based Specification Techniques in Dempster-Shafer Theory for an Evidential Intelligence Analysis of MultipleTarget Tracks (Thesis Abstract)

In Intelligence Analysis it is of vital importance to manage uncertainty. Intelligence data is almost always uncertain and incomplete, making it necessary to reason and taking decisions under uncertainty. One way to manage the uncertainty in Intelligence Analysis is Dempster-Shafer Theory. This thesis contains five results regarding multiple target tracks and intelligence specification.

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arXiv2003

On rho in a Decision-Theoretic Apparatus of Dempster-Shafer Theory

Thomas M. Strat has developed a decision-theoretic apparatus for Dempster-Shafer theory (Decision analysis using belief functions, Intern. J. Approx. Reason. 4(5/6), 391-417, 1990). In this apparatus, expected utility intervals are constructed for different choices. The choice with the highest expected utility is preferable to others. However, to find the preferred choice when the expected utility interval of one choice is included in that of another, it is necessary to interpolate a discerning point in the intervals. This is done by the parameter rho, defined as the probability that the ambiguity about the utility of every nonsingleton focal element will turn out as favorable as possible. If there are several different decision makers, we might sometimes be more interested in having the highest expected utility among the decision makers rather than only trying to maximize our own expected utility regardless of choices made by other decision makers. The preference of each choice is then determined by the probability of yielding the highest expected utility. This probability is equal to the maximal interval length of rho under which an alternative is preferred. We must here take into account not only the choices already made by other decision makers but also the rational choices we can assume to be made by later decision makers. In Strats apparatus, an assumption, unwarranted by the evidence at hand, has to be made about the value of rho. We demonstrate that no such assumption is necessary. It is sufficient to assume a uniform probability distribution for rho to be able to discern the most preferable choice. We discuss when this approach is justifiable.

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arXiv2003

Specifying nonspecific evidence

In an earlier article [J. Schubert, On nonspecific evidence, Int. J. Intell. Syst. 8(6), 711-725 (1993)] we established within Dempster-Shafer theory a criterion function called the metaconflict function. With this criterion we can partition into subsets a set of several pieces of evidence with propositions that are weakly specified in the sense that it may be uncertain to which event a proposition is referring. Each subset in the partitioning is representing a separate event. The metaconflict function was derived as the plausibility that the partitioning is correct when viewing the conflict in Dempster's rule within each subset as a newly constructed piece of metalevel evidence with a proposition giving support against the entire partitioning. In this article we extend the results of the previous article. We will not only find the most plausible subset for each piece of evidence as was done in the earlier article. In addition we will specify each piece of nonspecific evidence, in the sense that we find to which events the proposition might be referring, by finding the plausibility for every subset that this piece of evidence belong to the subset. In doing this we will automatically receive indication that some evidence might be false. We will then develop a new methodology to exploit these newly specified pieces of evidence in a subsequent reasoning process. This will include methods to discount evidence based on their degree of falsity and on their degree of credibility due to a partial specification of affiliation, as well as a refined method to infer the event of each subset.

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arXiv2003

Creating Prototypes for Fast Classification in Dempster-Shafer Clustering

We develop a classification method for incoming pieces of evidence in Dempster-Shafer theory. This methodology is based on previous work with clustering and specification of originally nonspecific evidence. This methodology is here put in order for fast classification of future incoming pieces of evidence by comparing them with prototypes representing the clusters, instead of making a full clustering of all evidence. This method has a computational complexity of O(M * N) for each new piece of evidence, where M is the maximum number of subsets and N is the number of prototypes chosen for each subset. That is, a computational complexity independent of the total number of previously arrived pieces of evidence. The parameters M and N are typically fixed and domain dependent in any application.

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arXiv2003

Applying Data Mining and Machine Learning Techniques to Submarine Intelligence Analysis

We describe how specialized database technology and data analysis methods were applied by the Swedish defense to help deal with the violation of Swedish marine territory by foreign submarine intruders during the Eighties and early Nineties. Among several approaches tried some yielded interesting information, although most of the key questions remain unanswered. We conclude with a survey of belief-function- and genetic-algorithm-based methods which were proposed to support interpretation of intelligence reports and prediction of future submarine positions, respectively.

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arXiv2003

Fast Dempster-Shafer clustering using a neural network structure

In this paper we study a problem within Dempster-Shafer theory where 2**n - 1 pieces of evidence are clustered by a neural structure into n clusters. The clustering is done by minimizing a metaconflict function. Previously we developed a method based on iterative optimization. However, for large scale problems we need a method with lower computational complexity. The neural structure was found to be effective and much faster than iterative optimization for larger problems. While the growth in metaconflict was faster for the neural structure compared with iterative optimization in medium sized problems, the metaconflict per cluster and evidence was moderate. The neural structure was able to find a global minimum over ten runs for problem sizes up to six clusters.

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arXiv2003

A neural network and iterative optimization hybrid for Dempster-Shafer clustering

In this paper we extend an earlier result within Dempster-Shafer theory ["Fast Dempster-Shafer Clustering Using a Neural Network Structure," in Proc. Seventh Int. Conf. Information Processing and Management of Uncertainty in Knowledge-Based Systems (IPMU 98)] where a large number of pieces of evidence are clustered into subsets by a neural network structure. The clustering is done by minimizing a metaconflict function. Previously we developed a method based on iterative optimization. While the neural method had a much lower computation time than iterative optimization its average clustering performance was not as good. Here, we develop a hybrid of the two methods. We let the neural structure do the initial clustering in order to achieve a high computational performance. Its solution is fed as the initial state to the iterative optimization in order to improve the clustering performance.

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arXiv2003

Fast Dempster-Shafer clustering using a neural network structure

In this article we study a problem within Dempster-Shafer theory where 2**n - 1 pieces of evidence are clustered by a neural structure into n clusters. The clustering is done by minimizing a metaconflict function. Previously we developed a method based on iterative optimization. However, for large scale problems we need a method with lower computational complexity. The neural structure was found to be effective and much faster than iterative optimization for larger problems. While the growth in metaconflict was faster for the neural structure compared with iterative optimization in medium sized problems, the metaconflict per cluster and evidence was moderate. The neural structure was able to find a global minimum over ten runs for problem sizes up to six clusters.

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arXiv2003

Managing Inconsistent Intelligence

In this paper we demonstrate that it is possible to manage intelligence in constant time as a pre-process to information fusion through a series of processes dealing with issues such as clustering reports, ranking reports with respect to importance, extraction of prototypes from clusters and immediate classification of newly arriving intelligence reports. These methods are used when intelligence reports arrive which concerns different events which should be handled independently, when it is not known a priori to which event each intelligence report is related. We use clustering that runs as a back-end process to partition the intelligence into subsets representing the events, and in parallel, a fast classification that runs as a front-end process in order to put the newly arriving intelligence into its correct information fusion process.

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arXiv2003

Dempster-Shafer clustering using Potts spin mean field theory

In this article we investigate a problem within Dempster-Shafer theory where 2**q - 1 pieces of evidence are clustered into q clusters by minimizing a metaconflict function, or equivalently, by minimizing the sum of weight of conflict over all clusters. Previously one of us developed a method based on a Hopfield and Tank model. However, for very large problems we need a method with lower computational complexity. We demonstrate that the weight of conflict of evidence can, as an approximation, be linearized and mapped to an antiferromagnetic Potts Spin model. This facilitates efficient numerical solution, even for large problem sizes. Optimal or nearly optimal solutions are found for Dempster-Shafer clustering benchmark tests with a time complexity of approximately O(N**2 log**2 N). Furthermore, an isomorphism between the antiferromagnetic Potts spin model and a graph optimization problem is shown. The graph model has dynamic variables living on the links, which have a priori probabilities that are directly related to the pairwise conflict between pieces of evidence. Hence, the relations between three different models are shown.

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