arXiv subjects

Johannes De Smedt

Publications and source records attributed to Johannes De Smedt.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Time Series Foundation Models for Process Model Forecasting

Process Model Forecasting (PMF) aims to predict how the control-flow structure of a process evolves over time by modeling the temporal dynamics of directly-follows (DF) relations, complementing predictive process monitoring that focuses on single-case prefixes. Prior benchmarks show that machine learning and deep learning models provide only modest gains over statistical baselines, mainly due to the sparsity and heterogeneity of the DF time series. We investigate Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs), large pre-trained models for generic time series, as an alternative for PMF. Using DF time series derived from real-life event logs, we compare zero-shot use of TSFMs, without additional training, with fine-tuned variants adapted on PMF-specific data. TSFMs generally achieve lower forecasting errors (MAE and RMSE) than traditional and specialized models trained from scratch on the same logs, indicating effective transfer of temporal structure from non-process domains. While fine-tuning can further improve accuracy, the gains are often small and may disappear on smaller or more complex datasets, so zero-shot use remains a strong default. Our study highlights the generalization capability and data efficiency of TSFMs for process-related time series and, to the best of our knowledge, provides the first systematic evaluation of temporal foundation models for PMF.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Concurrency-Aware Process Model Forecasting with Causal Nets

Process model forecasting (PMF) aims to predict the process model that will characterize a future period, thereby providing a process-level view of how behavior is expected to evolve. Existing PMF methods, however, forecast directly-follows graphs, which cannot explicitly represent concurrency. We extend PMF to causal nets by forecasting time series of relation and binding counts and using these forecasts to reconstruct future process models with AND/XOR semantics. To evaluate the resulting models, we introduce a protocol that accounts for partial traces and constructs the workflow nets required for conformance checking. Experiments on four event logs show that the forecasted models achieve conformance levels close to those of models re-mined from observations in the corresponding future windows. They also outperform static discovery baselines, which retain high precision on the structurally stable log but exhibit substantial precision losses on the other three logs. Filtering infrequent bindings improves most conformance metrics, although it also removes much of the concurrent behavior captured by the models.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Feature Attribution-Based Explainability Analysis of Deep Learning Models in Predictive Process Monitoring

Predictive process monitoring supports the optimization and control of operational business processes by forecasting the future state or outcome of ongoing cases. While deep neural networks have achieved strong performance for these tasks by modeling sequential dependencies in event logs, their black-box nature limits trust and practical adoption. Feature attribution methods are often used to address this, but applying them directly poses a dilemma: event-level attributions impose high computational complexity for long traces, while explanations based on aggregated trace representations often fail to capture the underlying control-flow dynamics. To address this issue, we propose a local post-hoc explainability method for deep neural networks in outcome prediction. The method relies on a control-flow-aware segmentation algorithm that partitions a trace into meaningful segments and supports the computation of segment-level SHAP explanations. This makes it possible to identify which parts of a trace influence a prediction and which change points steer the case toward the predicted outcome. We assess the proposed segmentation method on a synthetic dataset with known process logic, where meaningful change points can be explicitly verified, and we demonstrate its usefulness on real-world event logs from a loan application process and an administrative process of a Dutch municipality.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

DIFF-ERO: A Conformance-Aware Loss for Deep Learning in Process Mining

Deep learning has driven many recent advances in process analytics, especially for predictive and prescriptive monitoring. However, standard objectives such as cross-entropy optimize local next-step likelihoods and only implicitly capture control-flow structure. As a result, models can achieve high token-level accuracy while permitting imprecise global behaviour. We introduce DIFF-ERO, a conformance-aware loss function for deep learning models on process data. DIFF-ERO is a differentiable formulation of entropy-based stochastic conformance that incorporates control-flow information during training. Our approach constructs batch-level stochastic transition matrices with soft edge memberships, allowing structural precision and recall signals to directly inform backpropagation. The loss is model-agnostic and can be applied whenever the final representation parametrizes stochastic transitions. We instantiate DIFF-ERO in transformer encoder-decoder pipelines for next-activity prediction and use it jointly with cross-entropy to analyse its theoretical components with respect to convergence. Across benchmarks comparing other loss functions and targets, DIFF-ERO shows improved predictive performance where structure matters most while maintaining parity elsewhere. At the same time, the learned stochastic automaton converges towards the structural ground truth, indicating that the network internalizes process model structure.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

SCOPE: Sequential Causal Optimization of Process Interventions

Prescriptive Process Monitoring (PresPM) recommends interventions during running business processes to optimize key performance indicators (KPIs). In realistic settings, interventions are rarely isolated: organizations need to align sequences of interventions to jointly steer the outcome of a case. Existing PresPM approaches only partially address this challenge. Many focus on a single intervention decision, while others treat multiple interventions independently, ignoring how they interact over time. Methods that do address these dependencies depend either on simulation or data augmentation to approximate the process to train a Reinforcement Learning (RL) agent, which may create a reality gap and introduce bias. We introduce SCOPE (Sequential Causal Optimization of Process Interventions), a PresPM approach that learns aligned sequential intervention recommendations. SCOPE employs backward induction to estimate the effect of each candidate intervention action, propagating its impact from the final decision point back to the first. By leveraging causal learners, our method can utilize observational data directly, unlike methods that require constructing process approximations for RL. Experiments on both an existing synthetic dataset and a new semi-synthetic dataset show that SCOPE consistently outperforms state-of-the-art PresPM techniques in optimizing the KPI. The novel semi-synthetic setup, based on a real-life event log, is provided as a reusable benchmark for future work on sequential PresPM.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

A Generative Adversarial Graph Neural Network for Synthetic Time Series Data

Generating synthetic data for financial time series poses challenges, especially considering their non-stationary nature. Traditional statistical time series models normally assume weak stationarity. However, this assumption can constrain their effectiveness. Deep learning models, particularly Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs), have exhibited considerable potential in emulating complex probability distributions. GANs employ a generator-discriminator framework, where the generator creates data samples, while the discriminator distinguishes real from generated data. In this research, we introduce the Sig-Graph GAN model, which integrates the time-series signature, offering a structured summary of its temporal evolution; the Long Short-Term Memory network, capturing its inherent autoregressive structure; and Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), leveraging geometric patterns within the time-series data. To employ GNNs optimally, we use the visibility graph algorithm to derive a graph-based representation of the underlying time series. Numerical evaluations demonstrate that the Sig-Graph GAN model outperforms baseline methods in replicating the distribution of logarithmic returns across different stock exchanges. The integration of the graph structure with the autoregressive component effectively captures both geometric and temporal patterns embedded in time-series data. This research advances the field of GAN models for time series by introducing a model capable of leveraging both autoregressive properties and geometric structures for synthetic data generation.

cs.CE↗

arXiv2026

Dynamic Hypergraph Representation Learning for Multivariate Time Series without Prior Knowledge

Hypergraphs have the capacity to capture higher-dimensional relationships among entities across various domains, making them a subject of growing interest within the research community for understanding the structure and dynamics of complex systems. However, a key challenge is the derivation of hypergraph representations from time series data in situations where the structure of the hypergraph is limited or absent. In this study, we propose a model that constructs a dynamic hypergraph representation for multivariate time series without relying on prior knowledge of the data. This is achieved by applying community detection to the time series and transforming the resulting communities, obtained through an attention mechanism, into a hypergraph using a clique-based technique. Hypergraph representations are derived from different time series datasets, and the resulting hypergraphs are then used by a Dynamic Hypergraph Attention Convolution Network (DHACN) for multivariate time series predictions. This research advances the field of hypergraph representation by introducing a novel approach that is better suited to uncover high-order relationships without prior knowledge.

cs.CE↗

arXiv2026

The Statistical Significance of the Inclusion of Graph Neural Networks in the Financial Time Series Forecasting Problem

Forecasting univariate time series in the financial market is a challenging endeavor. While numerous statistical and machine learning models have been introduced to address this challenge, they typically concentrate solely on analyzing temporal patterns within the time series data. In this research, we study the statistical significance of the inclusion of geometric patterns in enhancing forecasting accuracy within the context of time series analysis. We introduce the Time-Geometric model, a combination of models designed to exploit both geometric and temporal patterns. The contribution of this research lies in advancing the domain of univariate time series prediction,as demonstrated through extensive empirical evaluations. Our findings underscore that leveraging geometric patterns, captured through Graph Neural Networks, yields statistically significant improvements in forecasting accuracy.

cs.CE↗

arXiv2025

Model-driven Stochastic Trace Clustering

Process discovery algorithms automatically extract process models from event logs, but high variability often results in complex and hard-to-understand models. To mitigate this issue, trace clustering techniques group process executions into clusters, each represented by a simpler and more understandable process model. Model-driven trace clustering improves on this by assigning traces to clusters based on their conformity to cluster-specific process models. However, most existing clustering techniques rely on either no process model discovery, or non-stochastic models, neglecting the frequency or probability of activities and transitions, thereby limiting their capability to capture real-world execution dynamics. We propose a novel model-driven trace clustering method that optimizes stochastic process models within each cluster. Our approach uses entropic relevance, a stochastic conformance metric based on directly-follows probabilities, to guide trace assignment. This allows clustering decisions to consider both structural alignment with a cluster's process model and the likelihood that a trace originates from a given stochastic process model. The method is computationally efficient, scales linearly with input size, and improves model interpretability by producing clusters with clearer control-flow patterns. Extensive experiments on public real-life datasets demonstrate that while our method yields superior stochastic coherence and graph simplicity, traditional fitness metrics reveal a trade-off, highlighting the specific utility of our approach for stochastic process analysis.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Crafting Imperceptible On-Manifold Adversarial Attacks for Tabular Data

Adversarial attacks on tabular data present unique challenges due to the heterogeneous nature of mixed categorical and numerical features. Unlike images where pixel perturbations maintain visual similarity, tabular data lacks intuitive similarity metrics, making it difficult to define imperceptible modifications. Additionally, traditional gradient-based methods prioritise $\ell_p$-norm constraints, often producing adversarial examples that deviate from the original data distributions. To address this, we propose a latent-space perturbation framework using a mixed-input Variational Autoencoder (VAE) to generate statistically consistent adversarial examples. The proposed VAE integrates categorical embeddings and numerical features into a unified latent manifold, enabling perturbations that preserve statistical consistency. We introduce In-Distribution Success Rate (IDSR) to jointly evaluate attack effectiveness and distributional alignment. Evaluation across six publicly available datasets and three model architectures demonstrates that our method achieves substantially lower outlier rates and more consistent performance compared to traditional input-space attacks and other VAE-based methods adapted from image domain approaches, achieving substantially lower outlier rates and higher IDSR across six datasets and three model architectures. Our comprehensive analyses of hyperparameter sensitivity, sparsity control, and generative architecture demonstrate that the effectiveness of VAE-based attacks depends strongly on reconstruction quality and the availability of sufficient training data. When these conditions are met, the proposed framework achieves superior practical utility and stability compared with input-space methods. This work underscores the importance of maintaining on-manifold perturbations for generating realistic and robust adversarial examples in tabular domains.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Actor-Enriched Time Series Forecasting of Process Performance

Predictive Process Monitoring (PPM) is a key task in Process Mining that aims to predict future behavior, outcomes, or performance indicators. Accurate prediction of the latter is critical for proactive decision-making. Given that processes are often resource-driven, understanding and incorporating actor behavior in forecasting is crucial. Although existing research has incorporated aspects of actor behavior, its role as a time-varying signal in PPM remains limited. This study investigates whether incorporating actor behavior information, modeled as time series, can improve the predictive performance of throughput time (TT) forecasting models. Using real-life event logs, we construct multivariate time series that include TT alongside actor-centric features, i.e., actor involvement, the frequency of continuation, interruption, and handover behaviors, and the duration of these behaviors. We train and compare several models to study the benefits of adding actor behavior. The results show that actor-enriched models consistently outperform baseline models, which only include TT features, in terms of RMSE, MAE, and R2. These findings demonstrate that modeling actor behavior over time and incorporating this information into forecasting models enhances performance indicator predictions.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Domain Adaptation of LLMs for Process Data

In recent years, Large Language Models (LLMs) have emerged as a prominent area of interest across various research domains, including Process Mining (PM). Current applications in PM have predominantly centered on prompt engineering strategies or the transformation of event logs into narrative-style datasets, thereby exploiting the semantic capabilities of LLMs to address diverse tasks. In contrast, this study investigates the direct adaptation of pretrained LLMs to process data without natural language reformulation, motivated by the fact that these models excel in generating sequences of tokens, similar to the objective in PM. More specifically, we focus on parameter-efficient fine-tuning techniques to mitigate the computational overhead typically associated with such models. Our experimental setup focuses on Predictive Process Monitoring (PPM), and considers both single- and multi-task predictions. The results demonstrate a potential improvement in predictive performance over state-of-the-art recurrent neural network (RNN) approaches and recent narrative-style-based solutions, particularly in the multi-task setting. Additionally, our fine-tuned models exhibit faster convergence and require significantly less hyperparameter optimization.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

ProCause: Generating Counterfactual Outcomes to Evaluate Prescriptive Process Monitoring Methods

Prescriptive Process Monitoring (PresPM) is the subfield of Process Mining that focuses on optimizing processes through real-time interventions based on event log data. Evaluating PresPM methods is challenging due to the lack of ground-truth outcomes for all intervention actions in datasets. A generative deep learning approach from the field of Causal Inference (CI), RealCause, has been commonly used to estimate the outcomes for proposed intervention actions to evaluate a new policy. However, RealCause overlooks the temporal dependencies in process data, and relies on a single CI model architecture, TARNet, limiting its effectiveness. To address both shortcomings, we introduce ProCause, a generative approach that supports both sequential (e.g., LSTMs) and non-sequential models while integrating multiple CI architectures (S-Learner, T-Learner, TARNet, and an ensemble). Our research using a simulator with known ground truths reveals that TARNet is not always the best choice; instead, an ensemble of models offers more consistent reliability, and leveraging LSTMs shows potential for improved evaluations when temporal dependencies are present. We further validate ProCause's practical effectiveness through a real-world data analysis, ensuring a more reliable evaluation of PresPM methods.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Linking Actor Behavior to Process Performance Over Time

Understanding how actor behavior influences process outcomes is a critical aspect of process mining. Traditional approaches often use aggregate and static process data, overlooking the temporal and causal dynamics that arise from individual actor behavior. This limits the ability to accurately capture the complexity of real-world processes, where individual actor behavior and interactions between actors significantly shape performance. In this work, we address this gap by integrating actor behavior analysis with Granger causality to identify correlating links in time series data. We apply this approach to realworld event logs, constructing time series for actor interactions, i.e. continuation, interruption, and handovers, and process outcomes. Using Group Lasso for lag selection, we identify a small but consistently influential set of lags that capture the majority of causal influence, revealing that actor behavior has direct and measurable impacts on process performance, particularly throughput time. These findings demonstrate the potential of actor-centric, time series-based methods for uncovering the temporal dependencies that drive process outcomes, offering a more nuanced understanding of how individual behaviors impact overall process efficiency.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Leveraging Machine Learning and Enhanced Parallelism Detection for BPMN Model Generation from Text

Efficient planning, resource management, and consistent operations often rely on converting textual process documents into formal Business Process Model and Notation (BPMN) models. However, this conversion process remains time-intensive and costly. Existing approaches, whether rule-based or machine-learning-based, still struggle with writing styles and often fail to identify parallel structures in process descriptions. This paper introduces an automated pipeline for extracting BPMN models from text, leveraging the use of machine learning and large language models. A key contribution of this work is the introduction of a newly annotated dataset, which significantly enhances the training process. Specifically, we augment the PET dataset with 15 newly annotated documents containing 32 parallel gateways for model training, a critical feature often overlooked in existing datasets. This addition enables models to better capture parallel structures, a common but complex aspect of process descriptions. The proposed approach demonstrates adequate performance in terms of reconstruction accuracy, offering a promising foundation for organizations to accelerate BPMN model creation.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

SimBank: from Simulation to Solution in Prescriptive Process Monitoring

Prescriptive Process Monitoring (PresPM) is an emerging area within Process Mining, focused on optimizing processes through real-time interventions for effective decision-making. PresPM holds significant promise for organizations seeking enhanced operational performance. However, the current literature faces two key limitations: a lack of extensive comparisons between techniques and insufficient evaluation approaches. To address these gaps, we introduce SimBank: a simulator designed for accurate benchmarking of PresPM methods. Modeled after a bank's loan application process, SimBank enables extensive comparisons of both online and offline PresPM methods. It incorporates a variety of intervention optimization problems with differing levels of complexity and supports experiments on key causal machine learning challenges, such as assessing a method's robustness to confounding in data. SimBank additionally offers a comprehensive evaluation capability: for each test case, it can generate the true outcome under each intervention action, which is not possible using recorded datasets. The simulator incorporates parallel activities and loops, drawing from common logs to generate cases that closely resemble real-life process instances. Our proof of concept demonstrates SimBank's benchmarking capabilities through experiments with various PresPM methods across different interventions, highlighting its value as a publicly available simulator for advancing research and practice in PresPM.

cs.DB↗

arXiv2024

Generating Realistic Adversarial Examples for Business Processes using Variational Autoencoders

In predictive process monitoring, predictive models are vulnerable to adversarial attacks, where input perturbations can lead to incorrect predictions. Unlike in computer vision, where these perturbations are designed to be imperceptible to the human eye, the generation of adversarial examples in predictive process monitoring poses unique challenges. Minor changes to the activity sequences can create improbable or even impossible scenarios to occur due to underlying constraints such as regulatory rules or process constraints. To address this, we focus on generating realistic adversarial examples tailored to the business process context, in contrast to the imperceptible, pixel-level changes commonly seen in computer vision adversarial attacks. This paper introduces two novel latent space attacks, which generate adversaries by adding noise to the latent space representation of the input data, rather than directly modifying the input attributes. These latent space methods are domain-agnostic and do not rely on process-specific knowledge, as we restrict the generation of adversarial examples to the learned class-specific data distributions by directly perturbing the latent space representation of the business process executions. We evaluate these two latent space methods with six other adversarial attacking methods on eleven real-life event logs and four predictive models. The first three attacking methods directly permute the activities of the historically observed business process executions. The fourth method constrains the adversarial examples to lie within the same data distribution as the original instances, by projecting the adversarial examples to the original data distribution.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Dynamic and Scalable Data Preparation for Object-Centric Process Mining

Object-centric process mining is emerging as a promising paradigm across diverse industries, drawing substantial academic attention. To support its data requirements, existing object-centric data formats primarily facilitate the exchange of static event logs between data owners, researchers, and analysts, rather than serving as a robust foundational data model for continuous data ingestion and transformation pipelines for subsequent storage and analysis. This focus results into suboptimal design choices in terms of flexibility, scalability, and maintainability. For example, it is difficult for current object-centric event log formats to deal with novel object types or new attributes in case of streaming data. This paper proposes a database format designed for an intermediate data storage hub, which segregates process mining applications from their data sources using a hub-and-spoke architecture. It delineates essential requirements for robust object-centric event log storage from a data engineering perspective and introduces a novel relational schema tailored to these requirements. To validate the efficacy of the proposed database format, an end-to-end solution is implemented using a lightweight, open-source data stack. Our implementation includes data extractors for various object-centric event log formats, automated data quality assessments, and intuitive process data visualization capabilities.

cs.DB↗