arXiv subjects

Johannes Fürnkranz

Publications and source records attributed to Johannes Fürnkranz.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2021

Predicting Human Card Selection in Magic: The Gathering with Contextual Preference Ranking

Drafting, i.e., the selection of a subset of items from a larger candidate set, is a key element of many games and related problems. It encompasses team formation in sports or e-sports, as well as deck selection in many modern card games. The key difficulty of drafting is that it is typically not sufficient to simply evaluate each item in a vacuum and to select the best items. The evaluation of an item depends on the context of the set of items that were already selected earlier, as the value of a set is not just the sum of the values of its members - it must include a notion of how well items go together. In this paper, we study drafting in the context of the card game Magic: The Gathering. We propose the use of a contextual preference network, which learns to compare two possible extensions of a given deck of cards. We demonstrate that the resulting network is better able to evaluate card decks in this game than previous attempts.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2021

Gradient-based Label Binning in Multi-label Classification

In multi-label classification, where a single example may be associated with several class labels at the same time, the ability to model dependencies between labels is considered crucial to effectively optimize non-decomposable evaluation measures, such as the Subset 0/1 loss. The gradient boosting framework provides a well-studied foundation for learning models that are specifically tailored to such a loss function and recent research attests the ability to achieve high predictive accuracy in the multi-label setting. The utilization of second-order derivatives, as used by many recent boosting approaches, helps to guide the minimization of non-decomposable losses, due to the information about pairs of labels it incorporates into the optimization process. On the downside, this comes with high computational costs, even if the number of labels is small. In this work, we address the computational bottleneck of such approach -- the need to solve a system of linear equations -- by integrating a novel approximation technique into the boosting procedure. Based on the derivatives computed during training, we dynamically group the labels into a predefined number of bins to impose an upper bound on the dimensionality of the linear system. Our experiments, using an existing rule-based algorithm, suggest that this may boost the speed of training, without any significant loss in predictive performance.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

An Investigation into Mini-Batch Rule Learning

We investigate whether it is possible to learn rule sets efficiently in a network structure with a single hidden layer using iterative refinements over mini-batches of examples. A first rudimentary version shows an acceptable performance on all but one dataset, even though it does not yet reach the performance levels of Ripper.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

An Empirical Investigation into Deep and Shallow Rule Learning

Inductive rule learning is arguably among the most traditional paradigms in machine learning. Although we have seen considerable progress over the years in learning rule-based theories, all state-of-the-art learners still learn descriptions that directly relate the input features to the target concept. In the simplest case, concept learning, this is a disjunctive normal form (DNF) description of the positive class. While it is clear that this is sufficient from a logical point of view because every logical expression can be reduced to an equivalent DNF expression, it could nevertheless be the case that more structured representations, which form deep theories by forming intermediate concepts, could be easier to learn, in very much the same way as deep neural networks are able to outperform shallow networks, even though the latter are also universal function approximators. In this paper, we empirically compare deep and shallow rule learning with a uniform general algorithm, which relies on greedy mini-batch based optimization. Our experiments on both artificial and real-world benchmark data indicate that deep rule networks outperform shallow networks.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Elliptical Ordinal Embedding

Ordinal embedding aims at finding a low dimensional representation of objects from a set of constraints of the form "item $j$ is closer to item $i$ than item $k$". Typically, each object is mapped onto a point vector in a low dimensional metric space. We argue that mapping to a density instead of a point vector provides some interesting advantages, including an inherent reflection of the uncertainty about the representation itself and its relative location in the space. Indeed, in this paper, we propose to embed each object as a Gaussian distribution. We investigate the ability of these embeddings to capture the underlying structure of the data while satisfying the constraints, and explore properties of the representation. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets showcase the advantages of our approach. In addition, we illustrate the merit of modelling uncertainty, which enriches the visual perception of the mapped objects in the space.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Revisiting Non-Specific Syndromic Surveillance

Infectious disease surveillance is of great importance for the prevention of major outbreaks. Syndromic surveillance aims at developing algorithms which can detect outbreaks as early as possible by monitoring data sources which allow to capture the occurrences of a certain disease. Recent research mainly focuses on the surveillance of specific, known diseases, putting the focus on the definition of the disease pattern under surveillance. Until now, only little effort has been devoted to what we call non-specific syndromic surveillance, i.e., the use of all available data for detecting any kind of outbreaks, including infectious diseases which are unknown beforehand. In this work, we revisit published approaches for non-specific syndromic surveillance and present a set of simple statistical modeling techniques which can serve as benchmarks for more elaborate machine learning approaches. Our experimental comparison on established synthetic data and real data in which we injected synthetic outbreaks shows that these benchmarks already achieve very competitive results and often outperform more elaborate algorithms.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Ordinal Monte Carlo Tree Search

In many problem settings, most notably in game playing, an agent receives a possibly delayed reward for its actions. Often, those rewards are handcrafted and not naturally given. Even simple terminal-only rewards, like winning equals one and losing equals minus one, can not be seen as an unbiased statement, since these values are chosen arbitrarily, and the behavior of the learner may change with different encodings. It is hard to argue about good rewards and the performance of an agent often depends on the design of the reward signal. In particular, in domains where states by nature only have an ordinal ranking and where meaningful distance information between game state values is not available, a numerical reward signal is necessarily biased. In this paper we take a look at MCTS, a popular algorithm to solve MDPs, highlight a reoccurring problem concerning its use of rewards, and show that an ordinal treatment of the rewards overcomes this problem. Using the General Video Game Playing framework we show dominance of our newly proposed ordinal MCTS algorithm over other MCTS variants, based on a novel bandit algorithm that we also introduce and test versus UCB.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2020

Learning Structured Declarative Rule Sets -- A Challenge for Deep Discrete Learning

Arguably the key reason for the success of deep neural networks is their ability to autonomously form non-linear combinations of the input features, which can be used in subsequent layers of the network. The analogon to this capability in inductive rule learning is to learn a structured rule base, where the inputs are combined to learn new auxiliary concepts, which can then be used as inputs by subsequent rules. Yet, research on rule learning algorithms that have such capabilities is still in their infancy, which is - we would argue - one of the key impediments to substantial progress in this field. In this position paper, we want to draw attention to this unsolved problem, with a particular focus on previous work in predicate invention and multi-label rule learning

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

A Flexible Class of Dependence-aware Multi-Label Loss Functions

Multi-label classification is the task of assigning a subset of labels to a given query instance. For evaluating such predictions, the set of predicted labels needs to be compared to the ground-truth label set associated with that instance, and various loss functions have been proposed for this purpose. In addition to assessing predictive accuracy, a key concern in this regard is to foster and to analyze a learner's ability to capture label dependencies. In this paper, we introduce a new class of loss functions for multi-label classification, which overcome disadvantages of commonly used losses such as Hamming and subset 0/1. To this end, we leverage the mathematical framework of non-additive measures and integrals. Roughly speaking, a non-additive measure allows for modeling the importance of correct predictions of label subsets (instead of single labels), and thereby their impact on the overall evaluation, in a flexible way - by giving full importance to single labels and the entire label set, respectively, Hamming and subset 0/1 are rather extreme in this regard. We present concrete instantiations of this class, which comprise Hamming and subset 0/1 as special cases, and which appear to be especially appealing from a modeling perspective. The assessment of multi-label classifiers in terms of these losses is illustrated in an empirical study.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Conformal Rule-Based Multi-label Classification

We advocate the use of conformal prediction (CP) to enhance rule-based multi-label classification (MLC). In particular, we highlight the mutual benefit of CP and rule learning: Rules have the ability to provide natural (non-)conformity scores, which are required by CP, while CP suggests a way to calibrate the assessment of candidate rules, thereby supporting better predictions and more elaborate decision making. We illustrate the potential usefulness of calibrated conformity scores in a case study on lazy multi-label rule learning.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Learning Gradient Boosted Multi-label Classification Rules

In multi-label classification, where the evaluation of predictions is less straightforward than in single-label classification, various meaningful, though different, loss functions have been proposed. Ideally, the learning algorithm should be customizable towards a specific choice of the performance measure. Modern implementations of boosting, most prominently gradient boosted decision trees, appear to be appealing from this point of view. However, they are mostly limited to single-label classification, and hence not amenable to multi-label losses unless these are label-wise decomposable. In this work, we develop a generalization of the gradient boosting framework to multi-output problems and propose an algorithm for learning multi-label classification rules that is able to minimize decomposable as well as non-decomposable loss functions. Using the well-known Hamming loss and subset 0/1 loss as representatives, we analyze the abilities and limitations of our approach on synthetic data and evaluate its predictive performance on multi-label benchmarks.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

On Aggregation in Ensembles of Multilabel Classifiers

While a variety of ensemble methods for multilabel classification have been proposed in the literature, the question of how to aggregate the predictions of the individual members of the ensemble has received little attention so far. In this paper, we introduce a formal framework of ensemble multilabel classification, in which we distinguish two principal approaches: "predict then combine" (PTC), where the ensemble members first make loss minimizing predictions which are subsequently combined, and "combine then predict" (CTP), which first aggregates information such as marginal label probabilities from the individual ensemble members, and then derives a prediction from this aggregation. While both approaches generalize voting techniques commonly used for multilabel ensembles, they allow to explicitly take the target performance measure into account. Therefore, concrete instantiations of CTP and PTC can be tailored to concrete loss functions. Experimentally, we show that standard voting techniques are indeed outperformed by suitable instantiations of CTP and PTC, and provide some evidence that CTP performs well for decomposable loss functions, whereas PTC is the better choice for non-decomposable losses.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

Simplifying Random Forests: On the Trade-off between Interpretability and Accuracy

We analyze the trade-off between model complexity and accuracy for random forests by breaking the trees up into individual classification rules and selecting a subset of them. We show experimentally that already a few rules are sufficient to achieve an acceptable accuracy close to that of the original model. Moreover, our results indicate that in many cases, this can lead to simpler models that clearly outperform the original ones.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

Advances in Machine Learning for the Behavioral Sciences

The areas of machine learning and knowledge discovery in databases have considerably matured in recent years. In this article, we briefly review recent developments as well as classical algorithms that stood the test of time. Our goal is to provide a general introduction into different tasks such as learning from tabular data, behavioral data, or textual data, with a particular focus on actual and potential applications in behavioral sciences. The supplemental appendix to the article also provides practical guidance for using the methods by pointing the reader to proven software implementations. The focus is on R, but we also cover some libraries in other programming languages as well as systems with easy-to-use graphical interfaces.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

Learning Analogy-Preserving Sentence Embeddings for Answer Selection

Answer selection aims at identifying the correct answer for a given question from a set of potentially correct answers. Contrary to previous works, which typically focus on the semantic similarity between a question and its answer, our hypothesis is that question-answer pairs are often in analogical relation to each other. Using analogical inference as our use case, we propose a framework and a neural network architecture for learning dedicated sentence embeddings that preserve analogical properties in the semantic space. We evaluate the proposed method on benchmark datasets for answer selection and demonstrate that our sentence embeddings indeed capture analogical properties better than conventional embeddings, and that analogy-based question answering outperforms a comparable similarity-based technique.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2019

Learning to play the Chess Variant Crazyhouse above World Champion Level with Deep Neural Networks and Human Data

Deep neural networks have been successfully applied in learning the board games Go, chess and shogi without prior knowledge by making use of reinforcement learning. Although starting from zero knowledge has been shown to yield impressive results, it is associated with high computationally costs especially for complex games. With this paper, we present CrazyAra which is a neural network based engine solely trained in supervised manner for the chess variant crazyhouse. Crazyhouse is a game with a higher branching factor than chess and there is only limited data of lower quality available compared to AlphaGo. Therefore, we focus on improving efficiency in multiple aspects while relying on low computational resources. These improvements include modifications in the neural network design and training configuration, the introduction of a data normalization step and a more sample efficient Monte-Carlo tree search which has a lower chance to blunder. After training on 569,537 human games for 1.5 days we achieve a move prediction accuracy of 60.4%. During development, versions of CrazyAra played professional human players. Most notably, CrazyAra achieved a four to one win over 2017 crazyhouse world champion Justin Tan (aka LM Jann Lee) who is more than 400 Elo higher rated compared to the average player in our training set. Furthermore, we test the playing strength of CrazyAra on CPU against all participants of the second Crazyhouse Computer Championships 2017, winning against twelve of the thirteen participants. Finally, for CrazyAraFish we continue training our model on generated engine games. In ten long-time control matches playing Stockfish 10, CrazyAraFish wins three games and draws one out of ten matches.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2019

On the Trade-off Between Consistency and Coverage in Multi-label Rule Learning Heuristics

Recently, several authors have advocated the use of rule learning algorithms to model multi-label data, as rules are interpretable and can be comprehended, analyzed, or qualitatively evaluated by domain experts. Many rule learning algorithms employ a heuristic-guided search for rules that model regularities contained in the training data and it is commonly accepted that the choice of the heuristic has a significant impact on the predictive performance of the learner. Whereas the properties of rule learning heuristics have been studied in the realm of single-label classification, there is no such work taking into account the particularities of multi-label classification. This is surprising, as the quality of multi-label predictions is usually assessed in terms of a variety of different, potentially competing, performance measures that cannot all be optimized by a single learner at the same time. In this work, we show empirically that it is crucial to trade off the consistency and coverage of rules differently, depending on which multi-label measure should be optimized by a model. Based on these findings, we emphasize the need for configurable learners that can flexibly use different heuristics. As our experiments reveal, the choice of the heuristic is not straight-forward, because a search for rules that optimize a measure locally does usually not result in a model that maximizes that measure globally.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

Improving Outbreak Detection with Stacking of Statistical Surveillance Methods

Epidemiologists use a variety of statistical algorithms for the early detection of outbreaks. The practical usefulness of such methods highly depends on the trade-off between the detection rate of outbreaks and the chances of raising a false alarm. Recent research has shown that the use of machine learning for the fusion of multiple statistical algorithms improves outbreak detection. Instead of relying only on the binary output (alarm or no alarm) of the statistical algorithms, we propose to make use of their p-values for training a fusion classifier. In addition, we also show that adding additional features and adapting the labeling of an epidemic period may further improve performance. For comparison and evaluation, a new measure is introduced which captures the performance of an outbreak detection method with respect to a low rate of false alarms more precisely than previous works. Our results on synthetic data show that it is challenging to improve the performance with a trainable fusion method based on machine learning. In particular, the use of a fusion classifier that is only based on binary outputs of the statistical surveillance methods can make the overall performance worse than directly using the underlying algorithms. However, the use of p-values and additional information for the learning is promising, enabling to identify more valuable patterns to detect outbreaks.

cs.LG↗