arXiv subjects

Johannes Faber

Publications and source records attributed to Johannes Faber.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Probabilistic and Alarm-Based Evaluation of a b-Value-Driven Deep Learning Earthquake Forecast

We evaluate the forecasting performance of a deep learning model, originally introduced as a pattern-extraction framework, that operates on the spatiotemporal evolution of seismic b-values in a short-term forecasting context. Model output is rescaled to account for training on balanced datasets and evaluated relative to a spatial base-rate model using the Brier Skill Score (BSS). Absolute skill values are small, but mean BSS values are consistently positive, including at locations where Mw geq 5 earthquakes occurred during the test period, indicating information content beyond historical seismicity alone. Alarm-based evaluation using Molchan diagrams shows elevated event capture rates at low alarm fractions (5.88 percent of events captured at 1 percent area under alarm), indicating discrimination exceeding random and purely spatial reference models under constrained alarm conditions. Comparison with ETAS-derived triggered probabilities further reveals a weak positive correlation, suggesting partial sensitivity of the model output to seismic regimes characterized by enhanced clustering and recent activity, while remaining distinct from classical aftershock-based descriptions. Together, these results indicate that spatiotemporal variations in b-values contain a persistent, though limited, signal relevant to probabilistic earthquake forecasting, yielding marginal but consistent improvements over baseline models across complementary evaluation frameworks.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2026

An Interpretable Physics Informed Multi-Stream Deep Learning Architecture for the Discrimination between Earthquake, Quarry Blast and Noise

The reliable discrimination of tectonic earthquakes from anthropogenic quarry blasts and transient noise remains a critical challenge in single station seismic monitoring. In this study, we introduce a novel Physics Informed Convolutional Recurrent Neural Network (PI CRNN) that embeds seismological domain knowledge directly into the feature extraction and learning process. We adapt a multistream architecture with three parallel encoders: (i) Time Domain: SincNet Encoder, (ii) MultiResolution Spectrogram branch, and, (iii) Physics Branch, followed by a fusion and a bidirectionalLSTM module. Evaluated on the Curated Pacific Northwest AI ready Seismic Dataset, the PI CRNN achieves an overall classification accuracy of 97.56 percent on an independent test set. It outperforms a standard CRNN baseline, a classical P to S amplitude ratio method, and a Physics Informed Neural Network (PINN) that enforces physical constraints via the loss function. Furthermore, the model demonstrates perfect precision in noise rejection (100 percent Recall). Interpretability analysis using saliency maps confirms that the architecture successfully learns distinct physical signatures, identifying bimodal P- and S-wave arrivals for earthquakes versus singular impulsive onsets for blasts. This work establishes a scalable, transparent framework for AI-driven seismology, proving that architectural inductive bias provides an alternative reliable approach compared to purely data-driven approaches.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2026

Detecting Spatiotemporal b-Value Anomalies with a Progressive Deep Learning Architecture

Identifying systematic patterns in seismicity that precede large earthquakes remains a central challenge in statistical seismology. In this work, we present a methodological framework for detecting spatiotemporal anomalies in seismicity using the evolution of gridded b-values. Focusing on the Japanese subduction zone, we construct daily b-value fields on a fine spatial grid by aggregating local seismicity over moving time windows, yielding a continuous 2+1D representation of seismic-state evolution. We formulate the problem as a binary classification task in which spatiotemporal blocks extracted from these $b$-value fields are labeled according to the occurrence of a target earthquake with \Mw $\geq 5$ in the central region within the next day. To model this data, we introduce a hybrid deep-learning architecture that combines a spatial convolutional encoder with a temporal convolutional network, enabling joint learning of spatial structure and temporal dynamics. A progressive meta-epoch training scheme is employed, in which the model is iteratively updated using a time-forward strategy that mirrors operational deployment and mitigates issues related to nonstationarity. This paper is strictly methodological in scope. It describes the construction of b-value fields, the spatiotemporal sampling strategy, the network architecture, and the progressive training and internal validation framework used for model development and parameter selection.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2025

Neural Earthquake Forecasting with Minimal Information: Limits, Interpretability, and the Role of Markov Structure

Forecasting earthquake sequences remains a central challenge in seismology, particularly under non-stationary conditions. While deep learning models have shown promise, their ability to generalize across time remains poorly understood. We evaluate neural and hybrid (NN plus Markov) models for short-term earthquake forecasting on a regional catalog using temporally stratified cross-validation. Models are trained on earlier portions of the catalog and evaluated on future unseen events, enabling realistic assessment of temporal generalization. We find that while these models outperform a purely Markovian model on validation data, their test performance degrades substantially in the most recent quintile. A detailed attribution analysis reveals a shift in feature relevance over time, with later data exhibiting simpler, more Markov-consistent behavior. To support interpretability, we apply Integrated Gradients, a type of explainable AI (XAI) to analyze how models rely on different input features. These results highlight the risks of overfitting to early patterns in seismicity and underscore the importance of temporally realistic benchmarks. We conclude that forecasting skill is inherently time-dependent and benefits from combining physical priors with data-driven methods.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2025

Hierarchical knowledge guided fault intensity diagnosis of complex industrial systems

Fault intensity diagnosis (FID) plays a pivotal role in monitoring and maintaining mechanical devices within complex industrial systems. As current FID methods are based on chain of thought without considering dependencies among target classes. To capture and explore dependencies, we propose a hierarchical knowledge guided fault intensity diagnosis framework (HKG) inspired by the tree of thought, which is amenable to any representation learning methods. The HKG uses graph convolutional networks to map the hierarchical topological graph of class representations into a set of interdependent global hierarchical classifiers, where each node is denoted by word embeddings of a class. These global hierarchical classifiers are applied to learned deep features extracted by representation learning, allowing the entire model to be end-to-end learnable. In addition, we develop a re-weighted hierarchical knowledge correlation matrix (Re-HKCM) scheme by embedding inter-class hierarchical knowledge into a data-driven statistical correlation matrix (SCM) which effectively guides the information sharing of nodes in graphical convolutional neural networks and avoids over-smoothing issues. The Re-HKCM is derived from the SCM through a series of mathematical transformations. Extensive experiments are performed on four real-world datasets from different industrial domains (three cavitation datasets from SAMSON AG and one existing publicly) for FID, all showing superior results and outperform recent state-of-the-art FID methods.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

A Deep Learning Pipeline for Large Earthquake Analysis using High-Rate Global Navigation Satellite System Data

Deep learning techniques for processing large and complex datasets have unlocked new opportunities for fast and reliable earthquake analysis using Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data. This work presents a deep learning model, MagEs, to estimate earthquake magnitudes using data from high-rate GNSS stations. Furthermore, MagEs is integrated with the DetEQ model for earthquake detection within the SAIPy package, creating a comprehensive pipeline for earthquake detection and magnitude estimation using HR-GNSS data. The MagEs model provides magnitude estimates within seconds of detection when using stations within 3 degrees of the epicenter, which are the most relevant for real-time applications. However, since it has been trained on data from stations up to 7.5 degrees away, it can also analyze data from larger distances. The model can process data from a single station at a time or combine data from up to three stations. The model was trained using synthetic data reflecting rupture scenarios in the Chile subduction zone, and the results confirm strong performance for Chilean earthquakes. Although tests from other tectonic regions also yielded good results, incorporating regional data through transfer learning could further improve its performance in diverse seismic settings. The model has not yet been deployed in an operational real-time monitoring system, but simulation tests that update data in a second-by-second manner demonstrate its potential for future real-time adaptation.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2024

High Magnitude Earthquake Identification Using an Anomaly Detection Approach on HR GNSS Data

Earthquake early warning systems are crucial for protecting areas that are subject to these natural disasters. An essential part of these systems is the detection procedure. Traditionally these systems work with seismograph data, but high rate GNSS data has become a promising alternative for the usage in large earthquake early warning systems. Besides traditional methods, deep learning approaches have gained recent popularity in this field, as they are able to leverage the large amounts of real and synthetic seismic data. Nevertheless, the usage of deep learning on GNSS data remains a comparatively new topic. This work contributes to the field of early warning systems by proposing an autoencoder based deep learning pipeline that aims to be lightweight and customizable for the detection of anomalies viz. high magnitude earthquakes in GNSS data. This model, DetEQ, is trained using the noise data recordings from nine stations located in Chile. The detection pipeline encompasses: (i) the generation of an anomaly score using the ground truth and reconstructed output from the autoencoder, (ii) the detection of relevant seismic events through an appropriate threshold, and (iii) the filtering of local events, that would lead to false positives. Robustness of the model was tested on the HR GNSS real data of 2011 Mw 6.8 Concepcion earthquake recorded at six stations. The results highlight the potential of GNSS based deep learning models for effective earthquake detection.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2023

When linear inversion fails: neural-network optimization for sparse-ray travel-time tomography of a volcanic edifice

In this study, we present an artificial neural network (ANN)-based approach for travel-time tomography of a volcanic edifice. We employ ray tracing to simulate the propagation of seismic waves through the heterogeneous medium of a volcanic edifice, and an inverse modeling algorithm that uses an ANN to estimate the velocity structure from the observed travel-time data. The performance of the approach is evaluated through a 2-dimensional numerical study that simulates i) an active source seismic experiment with few (explosive) sources placed on one side of the edifice and a dense line of receivers placed on the other side, and ii) earthquakes located inside the edifice and receivers placed on both sides of the edifice. The results are compared with those obtained from conventional damped linear inversion, demonstrating that the ANN-based approach outperforms the classical approach, particularly in situations with sparse ray coverage. Our study emphasizes the advantages of employing a relatively simple ANN architecture in conjunction with second-order optimizers to minimize the loss function. The ANN-based approach is computationally efficient and capable of providing high-resolution velocity images of anomalous structures within the edifice, making it a potentially valuable tool for the detection of low velocity anomalies related to magmatic intrusions or mush.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2023

SAIPy: A Python Package for single station Earthquake Monitoring using Deep Learning

Seismology has witnessed significant advancements in recent years with the application of deep learning methods to address a broad range of problems. These techniques have demonstrated their remarkable ability to effectively extract statistical properties from extensive datasets, surpassing the capabilities of traditional approaches to an extent. In this study, we present SAIPy, an open source Python package specifically developed for fast data processing by implementing deep learning. SAIPy offers solutions for multiple seismological tasks, including earthquake detection, magnitude estimation, seismic phase picking, and polarity identification. We introduce upgraded versions of previously published models such as CREIMERT capable of identifying earthquakes with an accuracy above 99.8 percent and a root mean squared error of 0.38 unit in magnitude estimation. These upgraded models outperform state of the art approaches like the Vision Transformer network. SAIPy provides an API that simplifies the integration of these advanced models, including CREIMERT, DynaPickerv2, and PolarCAP, along with benchmark datasets. The package has the potential to be used for real time earthquake monitoring to enable timely actions to mitigate the impact of seismic events. Ongoing development efforts aim to enhance the performance of SAIPy and incorporate additional features that enhance exploration efforts, and it also would be interesting to approach the retraining of the whole package as a multi-task learning problem.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2023

SMTNet: Hierarchical cavitation intensity recognition based on sub-main transfer network

With the rapid development of smart manufacturing, data-driven machinery health management has been of growing attention. In situations where some classes are more difficult to be distinguished compared to others and where classes might be organised in a hierarchy of categories, current DL methods can not work well. In this study, a novel hierarchical cavitation intensity recognition framework using Sub-Main Transfer Network, termed SMTNet, is proposed to classify acoustic signals of valve cavitation. SMTNet model outputs multiple predictions ordered from coarse to fine along a network corresponding to a hierarchy of target cavitation states. Firstly, a data augmentation method based on Sliding Window with Fast Fourier Transform (Swin-FFT) is developed to solve few-shot problem. Secondly, a 1-D double hierarchical residual block (1-D DHRB) is presented to capture sensitive features of the frequency domain valve acoustic signals. Thirdly, hierarchical multi-label tree is proposed to assist the embedding of the semantic structure of target cavitation states into SMTNet. Fourthly, experience filtering mechanism is proposed to fully learn a prior knowledge of cavitation detection model. Finally, SMTNet has been evaluated on two cavitation datasets without noise (Dataset 1 and Dataset 2), and one cavitation dataset with real noise (Dataset 3) provided by SAMSON AG (Frankfurt). The prediction accurcies of SMTNet for cavitation intensity recognition are as high as 95.32%, 97.16% and 100%, respectively. At the same time, the testing accuracies of SMTNet for cavitation detection are as high as 97.02%, 97.64% and 100%. In addition, SMTNet has also been tested for different frequencies of samples and has achieved excellent results of the highest frequency of samples of mobile phones.

cs.SD↗

arXiv2023

Testing the Potential of Deep Learning in Earthquake Forecasting

Reliable earthquake forecasting methods have long been sought after, and so the rise of modern data science techniques raises a new question: does deep learning have the potential to learn this pattern? In this study, we leverage the large amount of earthquakes reported via good seismic station coverage in the subduction zone of Japan. We pose earthquake forecasting as a classification problem and train a Deep Learning Network to decide, whether a timeseries of length greater than 2 years will end in an earthquake on the following day with magnitude greater than 5 or not. Our method is based on spatiotemporal b value data, on which we train an autoencoder to learn the normal seismic behaviour. We then take the pixel by pixel reconstruction error as input for a Convolutional Dilated Network classifier, whose model output could serve for earthquake forecasting. We develop a special progressive training method for this model to mimic real life use. The trained network is then evaluated over the actual dataseries of Japan from 2002 to 2020 to simulate a real life application scenario. The overall accuracy of the model is 72.3 percent. The accuracy of this classification is significantly above the baseline and can likely be improved with more data in the future

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2023

Exploring a CNN Model for Earthquake Magnitude Estimation using HR-GNSS data

High rate Global Navigation Satellite System (HR GNSS) data can be highly useful for earthquake analysis as it provides continuous high-rate measurements of ground motion. This data can be used to estimate the magnitude, to assess the potential of an earthquake for generating tsunamis, and to analyze diverse parameters related to the seismic source. Particularly, in this work, we present the first results of a deep learning model based on a convolutional neural network for earthquake magnitude estimation, using HR GNSS displacement time series. The influence of different dataset configurations, such as station numbers, epicentral distances, signal duration, and earthquake size, were analyzed to figure out how the model can be adapted to various scenarios. We explored the potential of the model for global application and compared its performance using both synthetic and real data from different seismogenic regions. The performance of our model at this stage was satisfactory in estimating earthquake magnitude from synthetic data. Comparable results were observed in tests using synthetic data from a different tectonic region than the training data. Furthermore, the model was tested using real data from different regions and magnitudes, resulting in a good accuracy, provided that the data from a particular group of stations had similar epicentral distance constraints to those used during the model training. The robustness of the DL model can be improved to work independently from the window size of the time series and the number of stations, enabling faster estimation by the model using only near field data. Overall, this study provides insights for the development of future DL approaches for earthquake magnitude estimation with HR-GNSS data, emphasizing the importance of proper handling and careful data selection for further model improvements.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2022

Sunda-arc seismicity: continuing increase of high-magnitude earthquakes since 2004

Spatial and temporal data for earthquakes with magnitude M greater than or equal to 6.5 can provide crucial information about the seismic history and potential for large earthquakes in a region. We analyzed approximately 313,500 events that occurred in the Sunda-arc region during the last 56 years, from 1964 to 2020, reported by the International Seismological Center. We report a persistent increase in the annual number of the events with mb greater than or equal to 6.5. We tested this increase against the null hypothesis and discarded the possibility of the increase being due to random groupings. The trend given by Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average suggests continuing increase of such large-magnitude events in the region during the next decade. At the same time, the computed Gutenberg Richter b value shows anomalies that can be related to the occurrence of the mega 2004 Sumatra earthquake, and to possible state of high tectonic stress in the eastern parts of the region.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2022

A multi-task learning for cavitation detection and cavitation intensity recognition of valve acoustic signals

With the rapid development of smart manufacturing, data-driven machinery health management has received a growing attention. As one of the most popular methods in machinery health management, deep learning (DL) has achieved remarkable successes. However, due to the issues of limited samples and poor separability of different cavitation states of acoustic signals, which greatly hinder the eventual performance of DL modes for cavitation intensity recognition and cavitation detection. In this work, a novel multi-task learning framework for simultaneous cavitation detection and cavitation intensity recognition framework using 1-D double hierarchical residual networks (1-D DHRN) is proposed for analyzing valves acoustic signals. Firstly, a data augmentation method based on sliding window with fast Fourier transform (Swin-FFT) is developed to alleviate the small-sample issue confronted in this study. Secondly, a 1-D double hierarchical residual block (1-D DHRB) is constructed to capture sensitive features from the frequency domain acoustic signals of valve. Then, a new structure of 1-D DHRN is proposed. Finally, the devised 1-D DHRN is evaluated on two datasets of valve acoustic signals without noise (Dataset 1 and Dataset 2) and one dataset of valve acoustic signals with realistic surrounding noise (Dataset 3) provided by SAMSON AG (Frankfurt). Our method has achieved state-of-the-art results. The prediction accurcies of 1-D DHRN for cavitation intensitys recognition are as high as 93.75%, 94.31% and 100%, which indicates that 1-D DHRN outperforms other DL models and conventional methods. At the same time, the testing accuracies of 1-D DHRN for cavitation detection are as high as 97.02%, 97.64% and 100%. In addition, 1-D DHRN has also been tested for different frequencies of samples and shows excellent results for frequency of samples that mobile phones can accommodate.

cs.SD↗

arXiv2022

Deep Learning-based Small Magnitude Earthquake Detection and Seismic Phase Classification

Reliable earthquake detection and seismic phase classification is often challenging especially in the circumstances of low magnitude events or poor signal-to-noise ratio. With improved seismometers and better global coverage, a sharp increase in the volume of recorded seismic data is witnessed. This makes the handling of the seismic data rather daunting based on traditional approaches and therefore fuels the need for a more robust and reliable method. In this study, we investigate two deep learningbased models, termed 1D ResidualNeuralNetwork (ResNet) and multi-branch ResNet, for tackling the problem of seismic signal detection and phase identification, especially the later can be used in the case where multiple classes is organized in the hierarchical format. These methods are trained and tested on the dataset of the Southern California Seismic Network. Results demonstrate that the proposed methods can achieve robust performance for the detection of seismic signals, and the identification of seismic phases, even when the seismic events are of small magnitude and are masked by noise. Compared with previously proposed deep learning methods, the introduced frameworks achieve 4% improvement in earthquake monitoring, and a slight enhancement in seismic phase classification.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2022

CREIME: A Convolutional Recurrent model for Earthquake Identification and Magnitude Estimation

The detection and rapid characterisation of earthquake parameters such as magnitude are of prime importance in seismology, particularly in applications such as Earthquake Early Warning (EEW). Traditionally, algorithms such as STA/LTA are used for event detection, while frequency or amplitude domain parameters calculated from 1-3 seconds of first P-arrival data are sometimes used to provide a first estimate of (body wave) magnitude. Owing to extensive involvement of human experts in parameter determination, these approaches are often found to be insufficient. Moreover, these methods are sensitive to the signal to noise ratio and may often lead to false or missed alarms depending on the choice of parameters. We, therefore, propose a multitasking deep learning model the Convolutional Recurrent model for Earthquake Identification and Magnitude Estimation (CREIME) that: (i) detects the first earthquake signal, from background seismic noise, (ii) determines first P arrival time as well as (iii) estimates the magnitude using the raw 3-component waveform data from a single station as model input. Considering, speed is of essence in EEW, we use up to two seconds of P-wave information which, to the best of our knowledge, is a significantly smaller data window (5 second window with up to of P wave data) compared to the previous studies. To examine the robustness of CREIME we test it on two independent datasets and find that it achieves an average accuracy of 98 percent for event vs noise discrimination and is able to estimate first P arrival time and local magnitude with average root mean squared errors of 0.13 seconds and 0.65 units, respectively. We also compare CREIME architecture with architectures of other baseline models, by training them on the same data, and also with traditional algorithms such as STA/LTA, and show that our architecture outperforms these methods.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2022

An acoustic signal cavitation detection framework based on XGBoost with adaptive selection feature engineering

Valves are widely used in industrial and domestic pipeline systems. However, during their operation, they may suffer from the occurrence of the cavitation, which can cause loud noise, vibration and damage to the internal components of the valve. Therefore, monitoring the flow status inside valves is significantly beneficial to prevent the additional cost induced by cavitation. In this paper, a novel acoustic signal cavitation detection framework--based on XGBoost with adaptive selection feature engineering--is proposed. Firstly, a data augmentation method with non-overlapping sliding window (NOSW) is developed to solve small-sample problem involved in this study. Then, the each segmented piece of time-domain acoustic signal is transformed by fast Fourier transform (FFT) and its statistical features are extracted to be the input to the adaptive selection feature engineering (ASFE) procedure, where the adaptive feature aggregation and feature crosses are performed. Finally, with the selected features the XGBoost algorithm is trained for cavitation detection and tested on valve acoustic signal data provided by Samson AG (Frankfurt). Our method has achieved state-of-the-art results. The prediction performance on the binary classification (cavitation and no-cavitation) and the four-class classification (cavitation choked flow, constant cavitation, incipient cavitation and no-cavitation) are satisfactory and outperform the traditional XGBoost by 4.67% and 11.11% increase of the accuracy.

cs.SD↗

arXiv2022

Regional-Local Adversarially Learned One-Class Classifier Anomalous Sound Detection in Global Long-Term Space

Anomalous sound detection (ASD) is one of the most significant tasks of mechanical equipment monitoring and maintaining in complex industrial systems. In practice, it is vital to precisely identify abnormal status of the working mechanical system, which can further facilitate the failure troubleshooting. In this paper, we propose a multi-pattern adversarial learning one-class classification framework, which allows us to use both the generator and the discriminator of an adversarial model for efficient ASD. The core idea is learning to reconstruct the normal patterns of acoustic data through two different patterns of auto-encoding generators, which succeeds in extending the fundamental role of a discriminator from identifying real and fake data to distinguishing between regional and local pattern reconstructions. Furthermore, we present a global filter layer for long-term interactions in the frequency domain space, which directly learns from the original data without introducing any human priors. Extensive experiments performed on four real-world datasets from different industrial domains (three cavitation datasets provided by SAMSON AG, and one existing publicly) for anomaly detection show superior results, and outperform recent state-of-the-art ASD methods.

cs.SD↗