arXiv subjects

Johannes Stangl

Publications and source records attributed to Johannes Stangl.

8 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Using firm-level supply chain networks to measure the speed of the energy transition

While many national and international climate policies clearly outline decarbonization targets and the timelines for achieving them, there is a notable lack of effort to objectively monitor progress. A significant share of the transition from fossil fuels to low-carbon energy will be borne by industry and the economy, requiring both the decarbonization of the electricity sector and the electrification of industrial processes. But how quickly are firms adopting low-carbon electricity? Using a unique dataset on Hungary's national supply chain network, we analyze the energy portfolios of 25,000 firms, covering more than 75% of gas, 70% of electricity, and 50% of oil consumption between 2020 and 2024. This enables us to objectively measure the trends of decarbonization efforts at the firm level. Although almost half of firms have increased their share of low-carbon electricity, more than half have reduced it. Extrapolating the observed trends, we find a transition of only 20% of total energy consumption to low-carbon electricity by 2050. The current speed of transition in the economy is not sufficient to reach climate neutrality by 2050. However, if firms would adopt the same efforts as the decarbonization frontrunners in their industry, a low-carbon share of up to 70% could be reached, putting climate targets within reach. We examine several firm characteristics that differentiate transitioning from non-transitioning firms. Our results are consistent with a 'lock-in' effect, whereby firms with a high share of fossil fuel costs relative to revenue are less likely to transition.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2025

Combined climate stress testing of supply-chain networks and the financial system with nation-wide firm-level emission estimates

On the way towards carbon neutrality, climate stress testing provides estimates for the physical and transition risks that climate change poses to the economy and the financial system. Missing firm-level CO2 emissions data severely impedes the assessment of transition risks originating from carbon pricing. Based on the individual emissions of all Hungarian firms (410,523), as estimated from their fossil fuel purchases, we conduct a stress test of both actual and hypothetical carbon pricing policies. Using a simple 1:1 economic ABM and introducing the new carbon-to-profit ratio, we identify firms that become unprofitable and default, and estimate the respective loan write-offs. We find that 45% of all companies are directly exposed to carbon pricing. At a price of 45 EUR/t, direct economic losses of 1.3% of total sales and bank equity losses of 1.2% are expected. Secondary default cascades in supply chain networks could increase these losses by 300% to 4000%, depending on firms' ability to substitute essential inputs. To reduce transition risks, firms should reduce their dependence on essential inputs from supply chains with high CO2 exposure. We discuss the implications of different policy implementations on these transition risks.

q-fin.GN↗

arXiv2024

Economic impacts of a drastic gas supply shock and short-term mitigation strategies

The Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 entailed the threat of a drastic and sudden reduction of natural gas supply to the European Union. This paper presents a techno-economic analysis of the consequences of a sudden gas supply shock to Austria, one of the most dependent countries on imports of Russian gas. Our analysis comprises (a) a detailed assessment of supply and demand side countermeasures to mitigate the immediate shortfall in Russian gas imports, (b) a mapping of the net reduction in gas supply to industrial sectors to quantify direct economic shocks and expected relative reductions in gross output and (c) the quantification of higher-order economic impacts through using a dynamic out-of-equilibrium input-output model. Our results show that potential economic consequences can range from relatively mild to highly severe, depending on the implementation and success of counteracting mitigation measures. We find that securing alternative gas imports, storage management, and incentivizing fuel switching represent the most important short-term policy levers to mitigate the adverse impacts of a sudden import stop.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2024

Firm-level supply chains to minimize unemployment and economic losses in rapid decarbonization scenarios

Urgently needed carbon emissions reductions might lead to strict command-and-control decarbonization strategies with potentially negative economic consequences. Analysing the entire firm-level production network of a European economy, we have explored how the worst outcomes of such approaches can be avoided. We compared the systemic relevance of every firm in Hungary with its annual CO2 emissions to identify optimal emission-reducing strategies with a minimum of additional unemployment and economic losses. Setting specific reduction targets, we studied various decarbonization scenarios and quantified their economic consequences. We determined that for an emissions reduction of 20%, the most effective strategy leads to losses of about 2% of jobs and 2% of economic output. In contrast, a naive scenario targeting the largest emitters first results in 28% job losses and 33% output reduction for the same target. This demonstrates that it is possible to use firm-level production networks to design highly effective decarbonization strategies that practically preserve employment and economic output.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2022

Propagation of disruptions in supply networks of essential goods: A population-centered perspective of systemic risk

The Covid-19 pandemic drastically emphasized the fragility of national and international supply networks (SNs),leading to significant supply shortages of essential goods for people, such as food and medical equipment. Severe disruptions that propagate along complex SNs can expose the population of entire regions or even countries to these risks. A lack of both, data and quantitative methodology, has hitherto hindered us to empirically quantify the vulnerability of the population to disruptions. Here we develop a data-driven simulation methodology to locally quantify actual supply losses for the population that result from the cascading of supply disruptions. We demonstrate the method on a large food SN of a European country including 22,938 business premises, 44,355 supply links and 116 local administrative districts. We rank the business premises with respect to their criticality for the districts' population with the proposed systemic risk index, SRIcrit, to identify around 30 premises that -- in case of their failure -- are expected to cause critical supply shortages in sizable fractions of the population. The new methodology is immediately policy relevant as a fact-driven and generalizable crisis management tool. This work represents a starting point for quantitatively studying SN disruptions focused on the well-being of the population.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2018

Steel-Based Electrocatalysts for Efficient and Durable Oxygen Evolution in Acidic Media

High overpotentials, particularly an issue of common anode materials, hamper the process of water electrolysis for clean energy generation. Thanks to immense research efforts up to date oxygen evolution electrocatalysts based on earth-abundant elements work efficiently and stably in neutral and alkaline regimes. However, non-noble metal-based anode materials that can withstand low pH regimes are considered to be an indispensable prerequisite for the water splitting to succeed in the future. All oxygen evolving electrodes working durably and actively in acids contain Ir at least as an additive. Due to its scarcity and high acquisition costs noble elements like Pt, Ru and Ir need to be replaced by earth abundant elements. We have evaluated a Ni containing stainless steel for use as an oxygen-forming electrode in diluted H2SO4. Unmodified Ni42 steel showed a significant weight loss after long term OER polarization experiments. Moreover, a substantial loss of the OER performance of the untreated steel specimen seen in linear sweep voltammetry measurements turned out to be a serious issue. However, upon anodization in LiOH, Ni42 alloy was rendered in OER electrocatalysts that exhibit under optimized synthesis conditions stable overpotentials down to 445 mV for 10 mA cm-2 current density at pH 0. Even more important: The resulting material has proven to be robust upon long-term usage (weight loss: 20 mug/mm2 after 50 ks of chronopotentiometry at pH 1) towards OER in H2SO4. Our results suggest that electrochemical oxidation of Ni42 steel in LiOH (sample Ni42Li205) results in the formation of a metal oxide containing outer zone that supports solution route-based oxygen evolution in acidic regime accompanied by a good stability of the catalyst.

physics.chem-ph↗

arXiv2017

Electrooxidation of a cobalt based steel in LiOH: a non-noble metal based electro-catalyst suitable for durable water-splitting in an acidic milieu

The use of proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolyzers is the method of choice for the conversion of solar energy when frequently occurring changes of the current load are an issue. However, this technique requires electrolytes with low pH. All oxygen evolving electrodes working durably and actively in acids contain IrOx. Due to their scarcity and high acquisition costs, noble elements like Pt, Ru and Ir need to be replaced by earth abundant elements. We have evaluated a cobalt containing steel for use as an oxygen-forming electrode in H2SO4. We found that the dissolving of ingredients out of the steel electrode at oxidative potential in sulfuric acid, which is a well-known, serious issue, can be substantially reduced when the steel is electro-oxidized in LiOH prior to electrocatalysis. Under optimized synthesis conditions a cobalt-containing tool steel was rendered into a durable oxygen evolution reaction (OER) electrocatalyst (weight loss: 39 mug mm-2 after 50 000 s of chronopotentiometry at pH 1) that exhibits overpotentials down to 574 mV at 10 mA cm-2 current density at pH 1. Focused ion beam SEM FIB-SEM) was successfully used to create a structure-stability relationship.

cond-mat.mtrl-sci↗

arXiv2017

Electro-Oxidation of Ni42 Steel: A highly Active Bifunctional Electrocatalyst

Janus type Water-Splitting Catalysts have attracted highest attention as a tool of choice for solar to fuel conversion. AISI Ni 42 steel was upon harsh anodization converted in a bifunctional electrocatalyst. Oxygen evolution reaction- (OER) and hydrogen evolution reaction (HER) are highly efficiently and steadfast catalyzed at pH 7, 13, 14, 14.6 (OER) respectively at pH 0, 1, 13, 14, 14.6 (HER). The current density taken from long-term OER measurements in pH 7 buffer solution upon the electro activated steel at 491 mV overpotential was around 4 times higher (4 mA/cm2) in comparison with recently developed OER electrocatalysts. The very strong voltage-current behavior of the catalyst shown in OER polarization experiments at both pH 7 and at pH 13 were even superior to those known for IrO2-RuO2. No degradation of the catalyst was detected even when conditions close to standard industrial operations were applied to the catalyst. A stable Ni-, Fe- oxide based passivating layer sufficiently protected the bare metal for further oxidation. Quantitative charge to oxygen- (OER) and charge to hydrogen (HER) conversion was confirmed. High resolution XPS spectra showed that most likely gamma-NiO(OH) and FeO(OH) are the catalytic active OER and NiO is the catalytic active HER species.

physics.chem-ph↗