arXiv subjects

John B. Rundle

Publications and source records attributed to John B. Rundle.

20 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2001

The Phase Dynamics of Earthquakes: Implications for Forecasting in Southern California

We analyze the space-time patterns of earthquake occurrence in southern California using a new method that treats earthquakes as a phase dynamical system. The system state vector is used to obtain a probability measure for current and future earthquake occurrence. Thousands of statistical tests indicate the method has considerable forecast skill. We emphasize that the method is not a model, and there are no unconstrained or free parameters to be determined by fits to training data sets.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2001

Nonlinear Network Dynamics on Earthquake Fault Systems

Earthquake faults occur in networks that have dynamical modes not displayed by single isolated faults. Using simulations of the network of strike-slip faults in southern California, we find that the physics depends critically on both the interactions among the faults, which are determined by the geometry of the fault network, as well as on the stress dissipation properties of the nonlinear frictional physics, similar to the dynamics of integrate-and-fire neural networks.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗