arXiv subjects

John Bailie

Publications and source records attributed to John Bailie.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Devil's terraces: determining the organization of resonance tongues in a periodically forced dynamical system

In periodically forced dynamical systems, resonance tongues are open regions of a parameter plane in which the dynamics on an invariant torus locks to a stable periodic orbit. While individual resonance tongues are well understood, the principles governing their global arrangement remain largely unexplored. We develop a topological framework, grounded in applied topology and Morse theory, whose central object is the two-dimensional resonance surface, defined as the graph of the rotation number $\rho$ over a parameter plane. Within this framework, resonance tongues appear as terraces of the resonance surface at rational values of $\rho$, and their global arrangement is determined by the singularities of this surface. Resolving the resonance surface requires the accurate computation of $\rho$, and we present an algorithm that does so efficiently and at high resolution. As a specific example, we examine a periodically forced model of vertical mixing in the North Atlantic, a process relevant to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, and study how its resonance surface changes under variation of a third parameter. We identify six distinct resonance-tongue arrangements and show that the resonance transitions between them are due to changes in the number and type of singularities on the boundary of the resonance surface.

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arXiv2026

Regular and chaotic Welander oscillations in a four-dimensional conceptual model for the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key component of the Earth's climate. Evidence indicates a twentieth-century weakening, and enhanced freshwater input to the subpolar North Atlantic may further reduce overturning strength. We present and study a conceptual four-dimensional, single-hemisphere box model with three compartments: a tropical surface box, a subpolar surface box, and a large deep-water box. Advective exchange couples the surface boxes and vertical exchange with the deep ocean is represented by a smooth convective-adjustment scheme. A comprehensive bifurcation analysis reveals an equilibrium structure with up to four coexisting overturning states, together with regimes of bistability and tristability. We identify families of periodic solutions and chaotic attractors with a clear timescale separation: a millennial oscillation is modulated by faster decadal-to-centennial variability arising from episodic shutdowns of subpolar convection. As prescribed freshwater fluxes increase, shutdown events become more frequent and the background overturning weakens. Additionally, for certain values of freshwater influx, the dynamics become chaotic, producing an irregular on-off switching of convection.

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arXiv2024

A detailed analysis of the origin of deep-decoupling oscillations

The variability of the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is influenced substantially by the formation of deep water in the North Atlantic. In many ocean models, so-called deep-decoupling oscillations have been found, whose timescale depends on the characteristics of convective vertical mixing processes. Their precise origin and sensitivity to the representation of mixing have remained unclear so far. To study this problem, we revisit a conceptual Welander model for the evolution of temperature and salinity in two vertically stacked boxes for surface and deep water, which interact through diffusion and/or convective adjustment. The model is known to exhibit several types of deep-decoupling oscillations, with phases of weak diffusive mixing interspersed with strong convective mixing, when the switching between them is assumed to be instantaneous. We present a comprehensive study of oscillations in Welander's model with non-instantaneous switching between mixing phases, as described by a smooth switching function. A dynamical systems approach allows us to distinguish four types of oscillations, in terms of their phases of diffusive versus convective mixing, and to identify the regions in the relevant parameter plane where they exist. The characteristic deep-decoupling oscillations still exist for non-instantaneous switching, but they require switching that is considerably faster than needed for sustaining oscillatory behaviour. Furthermore, we demonstrate how a gradual freshwater influx can lead to transitions between different vertical mixing oscillations. Notably, the convective mixing phase becomes shorter and even disappears, resulting in long periods of much reduced deep water formation. The results are relevant for the interpretation of ocean-climate variability in models and (proxy) observations.

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arXiv2023

Bifurcation analysis of a conceptual model for the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) distributes heat and salt into the Northern Hemisphere via a warm surface current toward the subpolar North Atlantic, where water sinks and returns southwards as a deep cold current. There is substantial evidence that the AMOC has slowed down over the last century. We introduce a conceptual box model for the evolution of salinity and temperature on the surface of the North Atlantic Ocean, subject to the influx of meltwater from the Greenland ice sheets. Our model, which extends a model due to Welander, describes the interaction between a surface box and a deep-water box of constant temperature and salinity, which may be convective or non-convective, depending on the density difference. Its two main parameters $μ$ and $η$ describe the influx of freshwater and the threshold density between the two boxes, respectively. We use bifurcation theory to analyse two cases of the model: instantaneous switching between convective or non-convective interaction, where the system is piecewise-smooth (PWS), and the full smooth model with more gradual switching. For the PWS model we derive analytical expressions for all bifurcations. The resulting bifurcation diagram in the $(μ,η)$-plane identifies all regions of possible dynamics, which we show as phase portraits - both at typical parameter points, as well as at the different transitions between them. We also present the bifurcation diagram for the case of smooth switching and show how it arises from that of the PWS case. In this way, we determine exactly where one finds bistability and self-sustained oscillations of the AMOC in both versions of the model. In particular, our results show that oscillations between temperature and salinity on the surface North Atlantic Ocean disappear completely when the transition between the convective and non-convective regimes is too slow.

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