arXiv subjects

John Bistline

Publications and source records attributed to John Bistline.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Estimating GHG Emissions from AI Use: Framework for Corporate-Level Measurement

Electricity demand from data centers is expected to grow from roughly 5% of U.S. consumption in 2025 to between 9% and 17% by 2030, and corporate artificial intelligence (AI) use is following a similar trajectory, spanning employee productivity assistants, direct access to large language models (LLMs), and AI features embedded in enterprise software. AI emissions today are a small share of footprints for many enterprises, but that share is unlikely to remain small for long. Without reasonable estimates, companies cannot set reduction targets or identify effective decarbonization levers as emissions grow. Companies, regulators, and auditors are asking for emissions estimates that withstand scrutiny, but no widely accepted methodology exists today. Published per-query estimates can differ by several orders of magnitude depending on what is counted, which provider is measured, and what assumptions are made about electricity use and the grid mix. This white paper proposes a standardized framework for corporate-level AI emissions accounting. The framework is designed to be defensible with current data constraints, tiered to meet companies where their data are, transparent about its assumptions, updatable as provider disclosure matures, and built for action rather than disclosure alone. Since AI emissions accounting is still nascent, it has the opportunity to design for actionability from the outset, so that measurement incentivizes responsible choices during AI's rapid buildout.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2026

Have Data Centers Raised Your Electric Bill? Causal Evidence from the United States

We estimate that data centers caused average retail electricity rates to fall modestly in the United States from 2015 to 2024 using an instrumental variables approach. Despite prevailing sentiment, the finding is consistent with economic reasoning: existing large power system fixed costs, economies of scale in transmission and distribution, and declining unit costs for generation imply that durable demand growth lowers average prices. We find patterns of economies of scale for transmission, distribution, and generation costs as well as within and across retail customer classes. We caution that future supply constraints could reverse the effect.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2025

System Effects of Carbon-Free Electricity Procurement: Regional Technology and Emissions Impacts of Voluntary Markets

Voluntary carbon-free electricity (CFE) procurement has the potential to accelerate electric sector decarbonization, but procurement strategies vary widely, leading to uncertainty about emissions, investments, and costs. This study assesses the system-wide effects of voluntary CFE procurement on U.S. regional power systems using a detailed energy systems model across a range of program designs, eligible technologies, policy environments, and modeling assumptions. Results suggest that hourly matching, where clean electricity procurement aligns with hourly load, combined with new and local generation could maximize emissions reductions from CFE procurement, particularly under existing Inflation Reduction Act incentives and state policies. However, regional costs vary significantly, with a CFE cost premium ranging from \$11-63/MWh nationally across scenarios and \$1-130/MWh across regions, broader than previous estimates. Expanding the eligible technology portfolio to include renewables, nuclear, carbon capture, and energy storage reduces costs, particularly in regions with lower wind and solar resource quality, though variable renewables and battery storage remain the dominant resources in many scenarios. Additionally, we show that the future policy environment strongly influences the effectiveness of voluntary CFE programs, with more stringent emissions policies or subsidies potentially limiting the incremental benefits of procurement. The analysis also quantifies how features of the model framework can shape insights about CFE procurement strategies.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2025

Impacts of EPA's Finalized Power Plant Greenhouse Gas Standards

The Inflation Reduction Act subsidizes the deployment of clean electricity, hydrogen production, and carbon capture and storage, which could enable additional actions by other federal, state, and local policymakers to reduce emissions. Power plant rules finalized by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in 2024 are one such example of complementary policies. The rules establish emissions intensity standards, not technology mandates, meaning power plant owners can choose from a range of technologies and control options provided that emissions standards are met. This flexibility makes electricity systems modeling important to understand the potential effects of these regulations. We report below a multi-model analysis of the EPA power plant rules that can provide timely information, including for other countries and states, on emissions impacts, policy design for electricity decarbonization, power sector investments and retirements, cost impacts, and load growth. We also discuss related technical, political, and legal uncertainties.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2023

Emissions and Energy Impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act

If goals set under the Paris Agreement are met, the world may hold warming well below 2 C; however, parties are not on track to deliver these commitments, increasing focus on policy implementation to close the gap between ambition and action. Recently, the US government passed its most prominent piece of climate legislation to date, the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA), designed to invest in a wide range of programs that, among other provisions, incentivize clean energy and carbon management, encourage electrification and efficiency measures, reduce methane emissions, promote domestic supply chains, and address environmental justice concerns. IRA's scope and complexity make modeling important to understand impacts on emissions and energy systems. We leverage results from nine independent, state-of-the-art models to examine potential implications of key IRA provisions, showing economy wide emissions reductions between 43-48% below 2005 by 2035.

physics.soc-ph↗