arXiv subjects

John C. Duchi

Publications and source records attributed to John C. Duchi.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Finite-sample nonparametric mean tests: Leave-one-out duality and asymptotic optimality

We study finite-sample valid tests of the one-sided mean hypothesis $H_0:\mu\leq 1$ against $H_1:\mu>1$ for nonnegative random variables. To do so, we develop a leave-one-out dual certificate framework, where certain pointwise inequalities imply p-value validity under the conditional mean null $\mathbb{E}[X_i\mid\mathbf{X}_{-i}]\leq 1$, and which also gives conditions that allow combining dual certificates for p-values to show that their pointwise minimum is also a valid p-value. The framework proves finite-sample validity of Wang and Zhao's nonparametric likelihood-ratio statistic $T_{\mathrm{nplr}}$, yields a new p-value $T_{\mathrm{bin}+}$ extending the Clopper--Pearson binomial test to general nonnegative random variables, and shows that the pointwise minimum $\min\{T_{\mathrm{nplr}},T_{\mathrm{bin}+}\}$ is itself a valid and more powerful p-value. We establish sharp optimality results for such testing problems in two regimes: both $T_{\mathrm{nplr}}$ and $T_{\mathrm{bin}+}$ attain a universal detectability boundary for the null $H_0$ without moment or tail assumptions, and $T_{\mathrm{bin}+}$ attains a nonparametric power lower bound under $n^{-1/2}$-local alternatives to $H_0$. Efficient algorithms and numerical experiments demonstrate substantial finite-sample power gains over existing valid methods.

math.ST↗

arXiv2026

Prior Diffusiveness and Regret in the Linear-Gaussian Bandit

We prove that Thompson sampling exhibits $\tilde{O}(\sigma d \sqrt{T} + d r \sqrt{\mathrm{Tr}(\Sigma_0)})$ Bayesian regret in the linear-Gaussian bandit with a $\mathcal{N}(\mu_0, \Sigma_0)$ prior distribution on the coefficients, where $d$ is the dimension, $T$ is the time horizon, $r$ is the maximum $\ell_2$ norm of the actions, and $\sigma^2$ is the noise variance. In contrast to existing regret bounds, this shows that to within logarithmic factors, the prior-dependent ``burn-in'' term $d r \sqrt{\mathrm{Tr}(\Sigma_0)}$ decouples additively from the minimax (long run) regret $\sigma d \sqrt{T}$. Previous regret bounds exhibit a multiplicative dependence on these terms. We establish these results via a new ``elliptical potential'' lemma, and also provide a lower bound indicating that the burn-in term is unavoidable.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Distribution free M-estimation

The basic question of delineating those statistical problems that are solvable without making any assumptions on the underlying data distribution has long animated statistics and learning theory. This paper characterizes when a convex M-estimation or stochastic optimization problem is solvable in such an assumption-free setting, providing a precise dividing line between solvable and unsolvable problems. The conditions we identify show, perhaps surprisingly, that Lipschitz continuity of the loss being minimized is not necessary for distribution free minimization, and they are also distinct from classical characterizations of learnability in machine learning.

math.ST↗

arXiv2025

Geometry, Computation, and Optimality in Stochastic Optimization

We study computational and statistical consequences of problem geometry in stochastic and online optimization. By focusing on constraint set and gradient geometry, we characterize the problem families for which stochastic- and adaptive-gradient methods are (minimax) optimal and, conversely, when nonlinear updates -- such as those mirror descent employs -- are necessary for optimal convergence. When the constraint set is quadratically convex, diagonally pre-conditioned stochastic gradient methods are minimax optimal. We provide quantitative converses showing that the ``distance'' of the underlying constraints from quadratic convexity determines the sub-optimality of subgradient methods. These results apply, for example, to any $\ell_p$-ball for $p < 2$, and the computation/accuracy tradeoffs they demonstrate exhibit a striking analogy to those in Gaussian sequence models.

math.OC↗

arXiv2025

On Privately Estimating a Single Parameter

We investigate differentially private estimators for individual parameters within larger parametric models. While generic private estimators exist, the estimators we provide repose on new local notions of estimand stability, and these notions allow procedures that provide private certificates of their own stability. By leveraging these private certificates, we provide computationally and statistical efficient mechanisms that release private statistics that are, at least asymptotically in the sample size, essentially unimprovable: they achieve instance optimal bounds. Additionally, we investigate the practicality of the algorithms both in simulated data and in real-world data from the American Community Survey and US Census, highlighting scenarios in which the new procedures are successful and identifying areas for future work.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

A Few Observations on Sample-Conditional Coverage in Conformal Prediction

We revisit the problem of constructing predictive confidence sets for which we wish to obtain some type of conditional validity. We provide new arguments showing how ``split conformal'' methods achieve near desired coverage levels with high probability, a guarantee conditional on the validation data rather than marginal over it. In addition, we directly consider (approximate) conditional coverage, where, e.g., conditional on a covariate $X$ belonging to some group of interest, we would like a guarantee that a predictive set covers the true outcome $Y$. We show that the natural method of performing quantile regression on a held-out (validation) dataset yields minimax optimal guarantees of coverage here. Complementing these positive results, we also provide experimental evidence that interesting work remains to be done to develop computationally efficient but valid predictive inference methods.

math.ST↗

arXiv2024

Predictive Inference in Multi-environment Scenarios

We address the challenge of constructing valid confidence intervals and sets in problems of prediction across multiple environments. We investigate two types of coverage suitable for these problems, extending the jackknife and split-conformal methods to show how to obtain distribution-free coverage in such non-traditional, potentially hierarchical data-generating scenarios. We demonstrate a novel resizing method to adapt to problem difficulty, which applies both to existing approaches for predictive inference and the methods we develop; this reduces prediction set sizes using limited information from the test environment, a key to the methods' practical performance, which we evaluate through neurochemical sensing and species classification datasets. Our contributions also include extensions for settings with non-real-valued responses, a theory of consistency for predictive inference in these general problems, and insights on the limits of conditional coverage.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Robust Validation: Confident Predictions Even When Distributions Shift

While the traditional viewpoint in machine learning and statistics assumes training and testing samples come from the same population, practice belies this fiction. One strategy -- coming from robust statistics and optimization -- is thus to build a model robust to distributional perturbations. In this paper, we take a different approach to describe procedures for robust predictive inference, where a model provides uncertainty estimates on its predictions rather than point predictions. We present a method that produces prediction sets (almost exactly) giving the right coverage level for any test distribution in an $f$-divergence ball around the training population. The method, based on conformal inference, achieves (nearly) valid coverage in finite samples, under only the condition that the training data be exchangeable. An essential component of our methodology is to estimate the amount of expected future data shift and build robustness to it; we develop estimators and prove their consistency for protection and validity of uncertainty estimates under shifts. By experimenting on several large-scale benchmark datasets, including Recht et al.'s CIFAR-v4 and ImageNet-V2 datasets, we provide complementary empirical results that highlight the importance of robust predictive validity.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

An information-theoretic lower bound in time-uniform estimation

We present an information-theoretic lower bound for the problem of parameter estimation with time-uniform coverage guarantees. Via a new a reduction to sequential testing, we obtain stronger lower bounds that capture the hardness of the time-uniform setting. In the case of location model estimation, logistic regression, and exponential family models, our $Ω(\sqrt{n^{-1}\log \log n})$ lower bound is sharp to within constant factors in typical settings.

cs.IT↗

arXiv2024

PPI++: Efficient Prediction-Powered Inference

We present PPI++: a computationally lightweight methodology for estimation and inference based on a small labeled dataset and a typically much larger dataset of machine-learning predictions. The methods automatically adapt to the quality of available predictions, yielding easy-to-compute confidence sets -- for parameters of any dimensionality -- that always improve on classical intervals using only the labeled data. PPI++ builds on prediction-powered inference (PPI), which targets the same problem setting, improving its computational and statistical efficiency. Real and synthetic experiments demonstrate the benefits of the proposed adaptations.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2022

Gradient Descent Finds the Cubic-Regularized Non-Convex Newton Step

We consider the minimization of non-convex quadratic forms regularized by a cubic term, which exhibit multiple saddle points and poor local minima. Nonetheless, we prove that, under mild assumptions, gradient descent approximates the $\textit{global minimum}$ to within $\varepsilon$ accuracy in $O(\varepsilon^{-1}\log(1/\varepsilon))$ steps for large $\varepsilon$ and $O(\log(1/\varepsilon))$ steps for small $\varepsilon$ (compared to a condition number we define), with at most logarithmic dependence on the problem dimension. When we use gradient descent to approximate the cubic-regularized Newton step, our result implies a rate of convergence to second-order stationary points of general smooth non-convex functions.

math.OC↗

arXiv2022

Mean Estimation from One-Bit Measurements

We consider the problem of estimating the mean of a symmetric log-concave distribution under the constraint that only a single bit per sample from this distribution is available to the estimator. We study the mean squared error as a function of the sample size (and hence the number of bits). We consider three settings: first, a centralized setting, where an encoder may release $n$ bits given a sample of size $n$, and for which there is no asymptotic penalty for quantization; second, an adaptive setting in which each bit is a function of the current observation and previously recorded bits, where we show that the optimal relative efficiency compared to the sample mean is precisely the efficiency of the median; lastly, we show that in a distributed setting where each bit is only a function of a local sample, no estimator can achieve optimal efficiency uniformly over the parameter space. We additionally complement our results in the adaptive setting by showing that \emph{one} round of adaptivity is sufficient to achieve optimal mean-square error.

cs.IT↗

arXiv2022

Lower Bounds for Non-Convex Stochastic Optimization

We lower bound the complexity of finding $ε$-stationary points (with gradient norm at most $ε$) using stochastic first-order methods. In a well-studied model where algorithms access smooth, potentially non-convex functions through queries to an unbiased stochastic gradient oracle with bounded variance, we prove that (in the worst case) any algorithm requires at least $ε^{-4}$ queries to find an $ε$ stationary point. The lower bound is tight, and establishes that stochastic gradient descent is minimax optimal in this model. In a more restrictive model where the noisy gradient estimates satisfy a mean-squared smoothness property, we prove a lower bound of $ε^{-3}$ queries, establishing the optimality of recently proposed variance reduction techniques.

math.OC↗

arXiv2022

The Lifecycle of a Statistical Model: Model Failure Detection, Identification, and Refitting

The statistical machine learning community has demonstrated considerable resourcefulness over the years in developing highly expressive tools for estimation, prediction, and inference. The bedrock assumptions underlying these developments are that the data comes from a fixed population and displays little heterogeneity. But reality is significantly more complex: statistical models now routinely fail when released into real-world systems and scientific applications, where such assumptions rarely hold. Consequently, we pursue a different path in this paper vis-a-vis the well-worn trail of developing new methodology for estimation and prediction. In this paper, we develop tools and theory for detecting and identifying regions of the covariate space (subpopulations) where model performance has begun to degrade, and study intervening to fix these failures through refitting. We present empirical results with three real-world data sets -- including a time series involving forecasting the incidence of COVID-19 -- showing that our methodology generates interpretable results, is useful for tracking model performance, and can boost model performance through refitting. We complement these empirical results with theory proving that our methodology is minimax optimal for recovering anomalous subpopulations as well as refitting to improve accuracy in a structured normal means setting.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2022

Unlabeled Data Improves Adversarial Robustness

We demonstrate, theoretically and empirically, that adversarial robustness can significantly benefit from semisupervised learning. Theoretically, we revisit the simple Gaussian model of Schmidt et al. that shows a sample complexity gap between standard and robust classification. We prove that unlabeled data bridges this gap: a simple semisupervised learning procedure (self-training) achieves high robust accuracy using the same number of labels required for achieving high standard accuracy. Empirically, we augment CIFAR-10 with 500K unlabeled images sourced from 80 Million Tiny Images and use robust self-training to outperform state-of-the-art robust accuracies by over 5 points in (i) $\ell_\infty$ robustness against several strong attacks via adversarial training and (ii) certified $\ell_2$ and $\ell_\infty$ robustness via randomized smoothing. On SVHN, adding the dataset's own extra training set with the labels removed provides gains of 4 to 10 points, within 1 point of the gain from using the extra labels.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2021

Accelerated, Optimal, and Parallel: Some Results on Model-Based Stochastic Optimization

We extend the Approximate-Proximal Point (aProx) family of model-based methods for solving stochastic convex optimization problems, including stochastic subgradient, proximal point, and bundle methods, to the minibatch and accelerated setting. To do so, we propose specific model-based algorithms and an acceleration scheme for which we provide non-asymptotic convergence guarantees, which are order-optimal in all problem-dependent constants and provide linear speedup in minibatch size, while maintaining the desirable robustness traits (e.g. to stepsize) of the aProx family. Additionally, we show improved convergence rates and matching lower bounds identifying new fundamental constants for "interpolation" problems, whose importance in statistical machine learning is growing; this, for example, gives a parallelization strategy for alternating projections. We corroborate our theoretical results with empirical testing to demonstrate the gains accurate modeling, acceleration, and minibatching provide.

math.OC↗

arXiv2020

Large-Scale Methods for Distributionally Robust Optimization

We propose and analyze algorithms for distributionally robust optimization of convex losses with conditional value at risk (CVaR) and $χ^2$ divergence uncertainty sets. We prove that our algorithms require a number of gradient evaluations independent of training set size and number of parameters, making them suitable for large-scale applications. For $χ^2$ uncertainty sets these are the first such guarantees in the literature, and for CVaR our guarantees scale linearly in the uncertainty level rather than quadratically as in previous work. We also provide lower bounds proving the worst-case optimality of our algorithms for CVaR and a penalized version of the $χ^2$ problem. Our primary technical contributions are novel bounds on the bias of batch robust risk estimation and the variance of a multilevel Monte Carlo gradient estimator due to [Blanchet & Glynn, 2015]. Experiments on MNIST and ImageNet confirm the theoretical scaling of our algorithms, which are 9--36 times more efficient than full-batch methods.

math.OC↗

arXiv2020

The Right Complexity Measure in Locally Private Estimation: It is not the Fisher Information

We identify fundamental tradeoffs between statistical utility and privacy under local models of privacy in which data is kept private even from the statistician, providing instance-specific bounds for private estimation and learning problems by developing the \emph{local minimax risk}. In contrast to approaches based on worst-case (minimax) error, which are conservative, this allows us to evaluate the difficulty of individual problem instances and delineate the possibilities for adaptation in private estimation and inference. Our main results show that the local modulus of continuity of the estimand with respect to the variation distance---as opposed to the Hellinger distance central to classical statistics---characterizes rates of convergence under locally private estimation for many notions of privacy, including differential privacy and its relaxations. As consequences of these results, we identify an alternative to the Fisher information for private estimation, giving a more nuanced understanding of the challenges of adaptivity and optimality.

math.ST↗