arXiv subjects

John C. Yannotty

Publications and source records attributed to John C. Yannotty.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2024

Combining Climate Models using Bayesian Regression Trees and Random Paths

General circulation models (GCMs) are essential tools for climate studies. Such climate models may have varying accuracy across the input domain, but no model is uniformly best. One can improve climate model prediction performance by integrating multiple models using input-dependent weights. Weight functions modeled using Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) were recently shown to be useful in nuclear physics applications. However, a restriction of that approach was the piecewise constant weight functions. To smoothly integrate multiple climate models, we propose a new tree-based model, Random Path BART (RPBART), that incorporates random path assignments in BART to produce smooth weight functions and smooth predictions, all in a matrix-free formulation. RPBART requires a more complex prior specification, for which we introduce a semivariogram to guide hyperparameter selection. This approach is easy to interpret, computationally cheap, and avoids expensive cross-validation. Finally, we propose a posterior projection technique to enable detailed analysis of the fitted weight functions. This allows us to identify a sparse set of climate models that recovers the underlying system within a given spatial region as well as quantifying model discrepancy given the available model set. Our method is demonstrated on an ensemble of 8 GCMs modeling average monthly surface temperature.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2023

Taweret: a Python package for Bayesian model mixing

Uncertainty quantification using Bayesian methods is a growing area of research. Bayesian model mixing (BMM) is a recent development which combines the predictions from multiple models such that each model's best qualities are preserved in the final result. Practical tools and analysis suites that facilitate such methods are therefore needed. Taweret introduces BMM to existing Bayesian uncertainty quantification efforts. Currently Taweret contains three individual Bayesian model mixing techniques, each pertaining to a different type of problem structure; we encourage the future inclusion of user-developed mixing methods. Taweret's first use case is in nuclear physics, but the package has been structured such that it should be adaptable to any research engaged in model comparison or model mixing.

nucl-th↗

arXiv2023

Model Mixing Using Bayesian Additive Regression Trees

In modern computer experiment applications, one often encounters the situation where various models of a physical system are considered, each implemented as a simulator on a computer. An important question in such a setting is determining the best simulator, or the best combination of simulators, to use for prediction and inference. Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and stacking are two statistical approaches used to account for model uncertainty by aggregating a set of predictions through a simple linear combination or weighted average. Bayesian model mixing (BMM) extends these ideas to capture the localized behavior of each simulator by defining input-dependent weights. One possibility is to define the relationship between inputs and the weight functions using a flexible non-parametric model that learns the local strengths and weaknesses of each simulator. This paper proposes a BMM model based on Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART). The proposed methodology is applied to combine predictions from Effective Field Theories (EFTs) associated with a motivating nuclear physics application.

stat.ME↗