Spatiotemporal Pauli processes: Quantum combs for modeling correlated noise in quantum error correction
Correlated noise is a critical failure mode in quantum error correction (QEC), yet a gap remains between the stochastic Pauli models used for scalable QEC analyses and the microscopic, non-Markovian descriptions of noise in physical devices. We bridge this gap by introducing Spatiotemporal Pauli Processes (SPPs): the natural multi-time generalization of Pauli channels, joint probability distributions over Pauli faults across space and time, obtained exactly from any noise process, however non-Markovian, under standard Pauli-frame randomization. SPPs thereby provide a single language in which correlated noise can be recast, compared, and extended, compatible with both microscopic open systems modeling and the stabilizer workflow of QEC design and analysis. Our central result is constructive: the multi-time Pauli twirl acts by local contractions on a process tensor network, yielding an explicit classical tensor network whose virtual bonds encode memory, bounded by the environment's Liouville-space dimension. Transfer operator diagnostics link memory spectra to correlation decay, and hidden Markov representations enable efficient sampling of correlated Pauli fault trajectories, mapping microscopically derived noise directly into circuit-level QEC simulation. We demonstrate this with surface code memory and stability benchmarks up to distance $19$. A temporal "storm" model with tunable correlation time shows that memory alone, at strictly fixed marginal error rates, systematically erodes the exponential error suppression expected from code distance. A genuinely spatiotemporal quantum cellular automaton bath maps exactly, under system twirling, to a nonlinear probabilistic cellular automaton; tuning its coherent interactions drives the noise into a pseudo-critical regime with critical slowing down and macroscopic error avalanches that reverse surface code distance scaling.