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John Franklin Crenshaw

Publications and source records attributed to John Franklin Crenshaw.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

A First Measurement of Circumgalactic Dust Reddening from Only 4.6 deg$^2$ of the Rubin Observatory's Data Preview 1

We present the first measurement of circumgalactic dust reddening from the Vera C. Rubin Observatory, using only 4.6 deg$^2$ of ComCam Data Preview 1 --- roughly $0.03\%$ of the final LSST footprint. Using photometric redshifts, we stack background-galaxy colors around foreground-galaxy positions and detect a chromatic reddening profile from $r_\perp \simeq 10$ kpc to $1$ Mpc. Interpreting average $E(g-z)$ with a Milky Way extinction curve, we find $A_V = (1.3 \pm 0.4) \times 10^{-1} (r_\perp / 20 \mathrm{kpc})^{-1.8 \pm 0.4}$ within $120$ kpc. The amplitude and radial dependence agree with earlier Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS), KiDS, and Dark Energy Survey (DES) results despite the $\sim1000\times$ smaller survey area and a foreground sample extending 3--6 mag fainter and 1--2 dex lower in stellar mass. The innermost 10--15 kpc bin reaches $A_V \simeq 0.3$ mag, comparable to high-latitude extinction through the Milky Way disk near the solar circle; the steep power-law slope implies a dust distribution that does not simply trace the halo-gas profile. Splitting by rest-frame $g-r$ shows stronger extinction around red foreground galaxies (rest-frame $g-r > 0.5$), although the blue subsample is too noisy to establish a significant color dependence. This red sample, with median halo mass $5 \times 10^{11} M_\odot$, shows substantially more reddening within 50 kpc than previously measured around more massive LRGs and implies a dust-to-stellar-mass ratio of $\sim 2\%$, nearly saturating the dust budget allowed by stellar metal yields. These pathfinder data demonstrate LSST's promise for high-precision galaxy--dust measurements across galaxy mass, environment, and redshift.

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Laser-based metrology systems vs wavefront sensing techniques: a comparative overview between the Large Binocular Telescope and the Vera C. Rubin Observatory for the telescope alignment and collimation tracking

This work presents a comparative overview of the collimation and alignment strategies employed by two leading 8m-class facilities: the Large Binocular Telescope (LBT) and the Vera C. Rubin Observatory. While both telescopes share a challenging fast f-number of approximately f/1.2 (considering the LBT in its Prime Focus configuration), they have adopted reciprocal architectures for the initial optical alignment strategy and for maintaining collimation during the night. As an initial alignment strategy, the LBT relies on a Wavefront Sensing technique called Focal Plane Image Analysis. Conversely, the Vera C. Rubin Observatory baseline foresees the usage of a Laser Tracker system to establish the initial optical states. The strategies for preserving the optical alignment and maintaining the collimation against gravitational flexure and thermal drift during observations are instead reversed. Besides the use of open-loop corrections based on Look-Up Tables, common on both telescopes, the LBT utilizes a laser-based Telescope Metrology System to monitor the relative position of optics in real-time, applying the corrections between the exposures. In contrast, the Rubin Observatory employs a Curvature Wavefront Sensing technique, using dedicated detectors at the four corners of the focal plane. Rather than identifying a best strategy, this work aims to synthesize the strengths, limitations, and operational trade-offs of these complementary approaches, from the perspective of the next generation of Extremely Large Telescopes and their instruments.

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NSF-DOE Vera C. Rubin Observatory Observations of Interstellar Comet 3I/ATLAS (C/2025 N1)

We report on the observation and measurement of astrometry, photometry, morphology, and activityof the interstellar object 3I/ATLAS, also designated C/2025 N1 (ATLAS) with the NSF-DOE Vera C. Rubin Observatory. Comet 3I/ATLAS, the third known interstellar object, was discovered on UT 2025 July 1. Rubin Observatory had coincidentally collected images of the object's region of the sky during routine commissioning. Facilitated by Rubin's high resolution and large aperture, we successfully recovered object detections from Rubin observations spanning UT 2025 June 21 (10 days before discovery, when 3I/ATLAS was 4.5 au from the Sun) through the date of discovery, and we acquired additional images through UT 2025 July 20 as part of commissioning. We measure on-sky locations of 3I/ATLAS in Rubin ugrizy bands, with a typical precision of about 70 mas, and briefly describe the reason this is coarser than our measured static source astrometric precision of about 3 mas in Rubin images. We measure grizy magnitudes of 3I/ATLAS photometry at about 0.01 mag precision, detecting no short-term photometric variability above 0.01 mag. We derive an estimated near-nucleus dust-to-nucleus scattering cross-section ratio of eta >= 13 on UT 2025 July 2 based on Rubin photometry and an upper limit nucleus size computed from Hubble Space Telescope observations. We find Rubin colors of g - r = (0.657 +/- 0.013) mag, r - i = (0.235 +/- 0.018) mag, i - z = (0.147 +/- 0.042) mag, z - y = (0.047 +/- 0.052) mag. These data represent the earliest observations of this object by a large (>=8-meter class) telescope and illustrate the type of measurements (and discoveries) Rubin's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will begin to provide after it begins in early 2026.

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The Vera C. Rubin Observatory Data Preview 1

We present Rubin Data Preview 1 DP1, the first data from the NSF DOE Vera C Rubin Observatory, comprising raw and calibrated single epoch images, coadds, difference images, detection catalogs, and ancillary data products. DP1 is based on 1792 optical near infrared exposures acquired over 48 distinct nights by the Rubin Commissioning Camera LSSTComCam on the Simonyi Survey Telescope at the Summit Facility on Cerro Pachón Chile in late 2024. DP1 covers $\sim$15 deg$^2$ distributed across seven roughly equal-sized non-contiguous fields, each independently observed in six broad photometric bands $ugrizy$. The median FWHM of the point spread function across all bands is approximately 1.14 arcseconds, with the sharpest images reaching about 0.58 arcseconds. The 5$σ$ point source depths for coadded images in the deepest field the Extended Chandra Deep Field South are $u$ = 24.55, $g$ = 26.18, $r$ = 25.96, $i$ = 25.71, $z$ = 25.07, $y$ = 23.1. Other fields are no more than 2.2 magnitudes shallower in any band where they have nonzero coverage. DP1 contains approximately 2.3 million distinct astrophysical objects, of which 1.6 million are extended in at least one band in coadds and 431 solar system objects of which 93 are new discoveries. DP1 is approximately 3.5 TB in size and is available to Rubin data rights holders via the Rubin Science Platform a cloud based environment for the analysis of petascale astronomical data. While small compared to future LSST releases its high quality and diversity of data support a broad range of early science investigations ahead of full operations in 2026.

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Redshift Assessment Infrastructure Layers (RAIL): Rubin-era photometric redshift stress-testing and at-scale production

Virtually all extragalactic use cases of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) require the use of galaxy redshift information, yet the vast majority of its sample of tens of billions of galaxies will lack high-fidelity spectroscopic measurements thereof, instead relying on photometric redshifts (photo-$z$) subject to systematic imprecision and inaccuracy best encapsulated by photo-$z$ probability density functions (PDFs). We present the version 1 release of Redshift Assessment Infrastructure Layers (RAIL), an open source Python library for at-scale probabilistic photo-$z$ estimation, initiated by the LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC) with contributions from the LSST Interdisciplinary Network for Collaboration and Computing (LINCC) Frameworks team. RAIL's three subpackages provide modular tools for end-to-end stress-testing, including a forward modeling suite to generate realistically complex photometry, a unified API for estimating per-galaxy and ensemble redshift PDFs by an extensible set of algorithms, and built-in metrics of both photo-$z$ PDFs and point estimates. RAIL serves as a flexible toolkit enabling the derivation and optimization of photo-$z$ data products at scale for a variety of science goals and is not specific to LSST data. We thus describe to the extragalactic science community, including and beyond Rubin the design and functionality of the RAIL software library so that any researcher may have access to its wide array of photo-$z$ characterization and assessment tools.

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A Path to an All-Sky Survey with Roman

A deep, space-based, all-sky near-infrared survey carried out with the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope would constitute a foundational astronomical infrastructure for decades to come. In this white paper, we present a concrete and feasible path to imaging the entire sky at $\sim0.1''$ resolution, beginning with high-impact fields in Cycle 1 and scaling to ultra-wide coverage within the nominal mission. This first-epoch survey will reach $\mathrm{H}\sim25.5$ AB mag (5$σ$) and maximize synergies with contemporaneous observatories, while preserving substantial time for other ambitious Roman programs. We outline representative scheduling scenarios and an example Cycle 1 program that triples early Roman-LSST overlap and delivers high-value community data products such as LSST forced photometry, joint \textit{Gaia}-Roman astrometry, and catalogs of Galactic substructure, stong lenses, and other rare systems. The Cycle 1 program will lay the foundation for an eventual all-sky survey, while also delivering high-impact early science. We invite broad community participation in shaping and carrying out both the initial program and the long-term vision of an all-sky Roman survey.

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Photometric Redshifts in JWST Deep Fields: A Pixel-Based Alternative with DeepDISC

Photo-z algorithms that utilize SED template fitting have matured, and are widely adopted for use on high-redshift near-infrared data that provides a unique window into the early universe. Alternative photo-z methods have been developed, largely within the context of low-redshift optical surveys. Machine learning based approaches have gained footing in this regime, including those that utilize raw pixel information instead of aperture photometry. However, the efficacy of image-based algorithms on high-redshift, near-infrared data remains underexplored. Here, we test the performance of Detection, Instance Segmentation and Classification with Deep Learning (DeepDISC) on photometric redshift estimation with NIRCam images from the JWST Advanced Deep Extragalactic Survey (JADES) program. DeepDISC is designed to produce probabilistic photometric redshift estimates directly from images, after detecting and deblending sources in a scene. Using NIRCam-only images and a compiled catalog of spectroscopic redshifts, we show that DeepDISC produces reliable photo-zs and uncertainties comparable to those estimated from template fitting using HST+JWST filters; DeepDISC even outperforms template fitting (lower scatter/fewer outliers) when the input photometric filters are matched. Compared with template fitting, DeepDISC does not require measured photometry from images, and can produce a catalog of 94000 photo-zs in ~4 minutes on a single NVIDIA A40 GPU. While current spectroscopic training samples are small and incomplete in color-magnitude space, this work demonstrates the potential of DeepDISC for increasingly larger image volumes and spectroscopic samples from ongoing and future programs. We discuss the impact of the training data on applications to broader samples and produce a catalog of photo-zs for all JADES DR2 photometric sources in the GOOD-S field, with quality flags indicating caveats.

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Opportunities in AI/ML for the Rubin LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will produce unprecedented volumes of heterogeneous astronomical data (images, catalogs, and alerts) that challenge traditional analysis pipelines. The LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC) aims to derive robust constraints on dark energy and dark matter from these data, requiring methods that are statistically powerful, scalable, and operationally reliable. Artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) are already embedded across DESC science workflows, from photometric redshifts and transient classification to weak lensing inference and cosmological simulations. Yet their utility for precision cosmology hinges on trustworthy uncertainty quantification, robustness to covariate shift and model misspecification, and reproducible integration within scientific pipelines. This white paper surveys the current landscape of AI/ML across DESC's primary cosmological probes and cross-cutting analyses, revealing that the same core methodologies and fundamental challenges recur across disparate science cases. Since progress on these cross-cutting challenges would benefit multiple probes simultaneously, we identify key methodological research priorities, including Bayesian inference at scale, physics-informed methods, validation frameworks, and active learning for discovery. With an eye on emerging techniques, we also explore the potential of the latest foundation model methodologies and LLM-driven agentic AI systems to reshape DESC workflows, provided their deployment is coupled with rigorous evaluation and governance. Finally, we discuss critical software, computing, data infrastructure, and human capital requirements for the successful deployment of these new methodologies, and consider associated risks and opportunities for broader coordination with external actors.

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Diagnosing the Effects of Spectroscopic Training Set Imperfection on Photometric Redshift Performance

Most LSST extragalactic science will rely on photometric redshifts (photo-$z$) to extract distance information for the galaxies. However, an incomplete or non-representative training set can introduce bias into photo-$z$ estimation. It is necessary to understand how various forms of training set imperfection, such as incompleteness and non-trivial spectroscopic target selection, affect photo-$z$ estimation algorithms, and to identify metrics best-suited to quantify the impact. This work aims to systematically study metrics for diagnosing how various photo-$z$ methods react to certain types of training set incompleteness and non-representativeness. We use methods available through the open-source Python library Redshift Assessment Infrastructure Layers (RAIL) to systematically test the algorithms CMNN, GPz, FlexZBoost, and PZFlow on mock training data degraded in accordance with several existing spectroscopic sky surveys, as well as under conditions of inverse redshift incompleteness, which approximately mimics observed patterns of incompleteness at high redshift. We employ the algorithm TrainZ as a control. Finally, we quantify photo-$z$ algorithm performance using a variety of statistical metrics implemented externally to RAIL. We determine that the Kullback-Liebler Divergence, Wasserstein Distance, and Probability Integral Transform are particularly informative metrics with which to assess the impact of training set imperfection on algorithmic performance. We also find that inverse redshift incompleteness effects alone lack the complexity to realistically represent anticipated training data.

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Quantifying the Impact of LSST $u$-band Survey Strategy on Photometric Redshift Estimation and the Detection of Lyman-break Galaxies

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory will conduct the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), promising to discover billions of galaxies out to redshift 7, using six photometric bands ($ugrizy$) spanning the near-ultraviolet to the near-infrared. The exact number of and quality of information about these galaxies will depend on survey depth in these six bands, which in turn depends on the LSST survey strategy: i.e., how often and how long to expose in each band. $u$-band depth is especially important for photometric redshift (photo-$z$) estimation and for detection of high-redshift Lyman-break galaxies (LBGs). In this paper we use a simulated galaxy catalog and an analytic model for the LBG population to study how recent updates and proposed changes to Rubin's $u$-band throughput and LSST survey strategy impact photo-$z$ accuracy and LBG detection. We find that proposed variations in $u$-band strategy have a small impact on photo-$z$ accuracy for $z < 1.5$ galaxies, but the outlier fraction, scatter, and bias for higher redshift galaxies varies by up to 50%, depending on the survey strategy considered. The number of $u$-band dropout LBGs at $z \sim 3$ is also highly sensitive to the $u$-band depth, varying by up to 500%, while the number of $griz$-band dropouts is only modestly affected. Under the new $u$-band strategy recommended by the Rubin Survey Cadence Optimization Committee, we predict $u$-band dropout number densities of $110$ deg$^{-2}$ (3200 deg$^{-2}$) in year 1 (10) of LSST. We discuss the implications of these results for LSST cosmology.

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Impact of survey spatial variability on galaxy redshift distributions and the cosmological $3\times2$-point statistics for the Rubin Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST)

We investigate the impact of spatial survey non-uniformity on the galaxy redshift distributions for forthcoming data releases of the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). Specifically, we construct a mock photometry dataset degraded by the Rubin OpSim observing conditions, and estimate photometric redshifts of the sample using a template-fitting photo-$z$ estimator, BPZ, and a machine learning method, FlexZBoost. We select the Gold sample, defined as $i<25.3$ for 10 year LSST data, with an adjusted magnitude cut for each year and divide it into five tomographic redshift bins for the weak lensing lens and source samples. We quantify the change in the number of objects, mean redshift, and width of each tomographic bin as a function of the coadd $i$-band depth for 1-year (Y1), 3-year (Y3), and 5-year (Y5) data. In particular, Y3 and Y5 have large non-uniformity due to the rolling cadence of LSST, hence provide a worst-case scenario of the impact from non-uniformity. We find that these quantities typically increase with depth, and the variation can be $10-40\%$ at extreme depth values. Using Y3 as an example, we propagate the variable depth effect to the weak lensing $3\times2$pt analysis, and assess the impact on cosmological parameters via a Fisher forecast. We find that galaxy clustering is most susceptible to variable depth, and non-uniformity needs to be mitigated below $3\%$ to recover unbiased cosmological constraints. There is little impact on galaxy-shear and shear-shear power spectra, given the expected LSST Y3 noise.

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The Active Optics System on the Vera C. Rubin Observatory: Optimal Control of Degeneracy Among the Large Number of Degrees of Freedom

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory is a unique facility for survey astronomy that will soon be commissioned and begin operations. Crucial to many of its scientific goals is the achievement of sustained high image quality, limited only by the seeing at the site. This will be maintained through an Active Optics System (AOS) that controls optical element misalignments and corrects mirror figure error to minimize aberrations caused by both thermal and gravitational distortions. However, the large number of adjustment degrees of freedom available on the Rubin Observatory introduces a range of degeneracies, including many that are \textit{noise-induced} due to imperfect measurement of the wavefront errors. We present a structured methodology for identifying these degeneracies through an analysis of image noise level. We also present a novel scaling strategy based on Truncated Singular Value Decomposition (TSVD) that mitigates the degeneracy, and optimally distributes the adjustment over the available degrees of freedom. Our approach ensures the attainment of optimal image quality, while avoiding excursions around the noise-induced subspace of degeneracies, marking a significant improvement over the previous techniques adopted for Rubin, which were based on an Optimal Integral Controller (OIC). This new approach is likely to also yield significant benefits for all telescopes that incorporate large numbers of degrees of freedom of adjustment.

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Improving Photometric Redshift Estimates with Training Sample Augmentation

Large imaging surveys will rely on photometric redshifts (photo-z's), which are typically estimated through machine learning methods. Currently planned spectroscopic surveys will not be deep enough to produce a representative training sample for LSST, so we seek methods to improve the photo-z estimates that arise from non-representative training samples. Spectroscopic training samples for photo-z's are biased towards redder, brighter galaxies, which also tend to be at lower redshift than the typical galaxy observed by LSST, leading to poor photo-z estimates with outlier fractions nearly 4 times larger than for a representative training sample. In this paper, we apply the concept of training sample augmentation, where we augment simulated non-representative training samples with simulated galaxies possessing otherwise unrepresented features. When we select simulated galaxies with (g-z) color, i-band magnitude and redshift outside the range of the original training sample, we are able to reduce the outlier fraction of the photo-z estimates for simulated LSST data by nearly 50% and the normalized median absolute deviation (NMAD) by 56%. When compared to a fully representative training sample, augmentation can recover nearly 70% of the degradation in the outlier fraction and 80% of the degradation in NMAD. Training sample augmentation is a simple and effective way to improve training samples for photo-z's without requiring additional spectroscopic samples.

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Probabilistic Forward Modeling of Galaxy Catalogs with Normalizing Flows

Evaluating the accuracy and calibration of the redshift posteriors produced by photometric redshift (photo-z) estimators is vital for enabling precision cosmology and extragalactic astrophysics with modern wide-field photometric surveys. Evaluating photo-z posteriors on a per-galaxy basis is difficult, however, as real galaxies have a true redshift but not a true redshift posterior. We introduce PZFlow, a Python package for the probabilistic forward modeling of galaxy catalogs with normalizing flows. For catalogs simulated with PZFlow, there is a natural notion of "true" redshift posteriors that can be used for photo-z validation. We use PZFlow to simulate a photometric galaxy catalog where each galaxy has a redshift, noisy photometry, shape information, and a true redshift posterior. We also demonstrate the use of an ensemble of normalizing flows for photo-z estimation. We discuss how PZFlow will be used to validate the photo-z estimation pipeline of the Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC), and the wider applicability of PZFlow for statistical modeling of any tabular data.

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Using AI for Wavefront Estimation with the Rubin Observatory Active Optics System

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory will, over a period of 10 years, repeatedly survey the southern sky. To ensure that images generated by Rubin meet the quality requirements for precision science, the observatory will use an Active Optics System (AOS) to correct for alignment and mirror surface perturbations introduced by gravity and temperature gradients in the optical system. To accomplish this Rubin will use out-of-focus images from sensors located at the edge of the focal plane to learn and correct for perturbations to the wavefront. We have designed and integrated a deep learning model for wavefront estimation into the AOS pipeline. In this paper, we compare the performance of this deep learning approach to Rubin's baseline algorithm when applied to images from two different simulations of the Rubin optical system. We show the deep learning approach is faster and more accurate, achieving the atmospheric error floor both for high-quality images, and low-quality images with heavy blending and vignetting. Compared to the baseline algorithm, the deep learning model is 40x faster, the median error 2x better under ideal conditions, 5x better in the presence of vignetting by the Rubin camera, and 14x better in the presence of blending in crowded fields. In addition, the deep learning model surpasses the required optical quality in simulations of the AOS closed loop. This system promises to increase the survey area useful for precision science by up to 8%. We discuss how this system might be deployed when commissioning and operating Rubin.

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The Simulated Catalogue of Optical Transients and Correlated Hosts (SCOTCH)

As we observe a rapidly growing number of astrophysical transients, we learn more about the diverse host galaxy environments in which they occur. Host galaxy information can be used to purify samples of cosmological Type Ia supernovae, uncover the progenitor systems of individual classes, and facilitate low-latency follow-up of rare and peculiar explosions. In this work, we develop a novel data-driven methodology to simulate the time-domain sky that includes detailed modeling of the probability density function for multiple transient classes conditioned on host galaxy magnitudes, colours, star formation rates, and masses. We have designed these simulations to optimize photometric classification and analysis in upcoming large synoptic surveys. We integrate host galaxy information into the SNANA simulation framework to construct the Simulated Catalogue of Optical Transients and Correlated Hosts (SCOTCH), a publicly-available catalogue of 5 million idealized transient light curves in LSST passbands and their host galaxy properties over the redshift range $0<z<3$. This catalogue includes supernovae, tidal disruption events, kilonovae, and active galactic nuclei. Each light curve consists of true top-of-the-galaxy magnitudes sampled with high ($\lesssim$2 day) cadence. In conjunction with SCOTCH, we also release an associated set of tutorials and the transient-specific libraries to enable simulations of arbitrary space- and ground-based surveys. Our methodology is being used to test critical science infrastructure in advance of surveys by the Vera C. Rubin Observatory and the Nancy G. Roman Space Telescope.

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The sensitivity of GPz estimates of photo-z posterior PDFs to realistically complex training set imperfections

The accurate estimation of photometric redshifts is crucial to many upcoming galaxy surveys, for example the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). Almost all Rubin extragalactic and cosmological science requires accurate and precise calculation of photometric redshifts; many diverse approaches to this problem are currently in the process of being developed, validated, and tested. In this work, we use the photometric redshift code GPz to examine two realistically complex training set imperfections scenarios for machine learning based photometric redshift calculation: i) where the spectroscopic training set has a very different distribution in colour-magnitude space to the test set, and ii) where the effect of emission line confusion causes a fraction of the training spectroscopic sample to not have the true redshift. By evaluating the sensitivity of GPz to a range of increasingly severe imperfections, with a range of metrics (both of photo-z point estimates as well as posterior probability distribution functions, PDFs), we quantify the degree to which predictions get worse with higher degrees of degradation. In particular we find that there is a substantial drop-off in photo-z quality when line-confusion goes above ~1%, and sample incompleteness below a redshift of 1.5, for an experimental setup using data from the Buzzard Flock synthetic sky catalogues.

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An information-based metric for observing strategy optimization, demonstrated in the context of photometric redshifts with applications to cosmology

The observing strategy of a galaxy survey influences the degree to which its resulting data can be used to accomplish any science goal. LSST is thus seeking metrics of observing strategies for multiple science cases in order to optimally choose a cadence. Photometric redshifts are essential for many extragalactic science applications of LSST's data, including but not limited to cosmology, but there are few metrics available, and they are not straightforwardly integrated with metrics of other cadence-dependent quantities that may influence any given use case. We propose a metric for observing strategy optimization based on the potentially recoverable mutual information about redshift from a photometric sample under the constraints of a realistic observing strategy. We demonstrate a tractable estimation of a variational lower bound of this mutual information implemented in a public code using conditional normalizing flows. By comparing the recoverable redshift information across observing strategies, we can distinguish between those that preclude robust redshift constraints and those whose data will preserve more redshift information, to be generically utilized in a downstream analysis. We recommend the use of this versatile metric to observing strategy optimization for redshift-dependent extragalactic use cases, including but not limited to cosmology, as well as any other science applications for which photometry may be modeled from true parameter values beyond redshift.

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