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John Fry

Publications and source records attributed to John Fry.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

Benchmarking Formula 1 results using a normal model

There is enduring interest in disentangling the effects of skill and luck in sport. A key issue in Formula 1 is distinguishing between car-level and driver-level effects. Four elite teams currently dominate Formula 1 and have won every major race for the last four years. In this paper we use univariate and bivariate normal models to quantify reasonable performance expectations at both driver and team levels, distinguishing between elite and non-elite teams. We illustrate our approach with an application to the last fully completed 2025 season.

stat.AP

Kaon Physics: A Cornerstone for Future Discoveries

The kaon physics programme, long heralded as a cutting-edge frontier by the European Strategy for Particle Physics, continues to stand at the intersection of discovery and innovation in high-energy physics (HEP). With its unparalleled capacity to explore new physics at the multi-TeV scale, kaon research is poised to unveil phenomena that could reshape our understanding of the Universe. This document highlights the compelling physics case, with emphasis on exciting new opportunities for advancing kaon physics not only in Europe but also on a global stage. As an important player in the future of HEP, the kaon programme promises to drive transformative breakthroughs, inviting exploration at the forefront of scientific discovery.

hep-ph

Proposal of the KOTO II experiment

The KOTO II experiment is proposed to measure the branching ratio of the decay $K_L\to\pi^0\nu\bar{\nu}$ at J-PARC. With a beamline to extract long-lived neutral kaons at 5 degrees from a production target, the single event sensitivity of the decay is $8.5\times 10^{-13}$, which is much smaller than the Standard Model prediction $3\times 10^{-11}$. This allows searches for new physics beyond the Standard Model and the first discovery of the decay with a significance exceeding $5\sigma$. As the only experiment proposed in the world dedicated to rare kaon decays, KOTO II will be indispensable in the quest for a complete understanding of flavor dynamics in the quark sector. Moreover, by combining efforts from the kaon community worldwide, we plan to develop the KOTO II detector further and expand the physics reach of the experiment to include measurements of the branching ratio of the $K_L\to\pi^0\ell^+\ell^-$ decays, studies of other $K_L$ decays, and searches for dark photons, axions, and axion-like particles. KOTO II will therefore obtain a comprehensive understanding of $K_L$ decays, providing further constraints on new physics scenarios with existing $K^+$ results.

hep-ex

Elementary econometric and strategic analysis of curling matches

We develop a Markov model of curling matches, parametrised by the probability of winning an end and the probability distribution of scoring ends. In practical applications, these end-winning probabilities can be estimated econometrically, and are shown to depend on which team holds the hammer, as well as the offensive and defensive strengths of the respective teams. Using a maximum entropy argument, based on the idea of characteristic scoring patterns in curling, we predict that the points distribution of scoring ends should follow a constrained geometric distribution. We provide analytical results detailing when it is optimal to blank the end in preference to scoring one point and losing possession of the hammer. Statistical and simulation analysis of international curling matches is also performed.

stat.AP

Faster identification of faster Formula 1 drivers via time-rank duality

Two natural ways of modelling Formula 1 race outcomes are a probabilistic approach, based on the exponential distribution, and econometric modelling of the ranks. Both approaches lead to exactly soluble race-winning probabilities. Equating race-winning probabilities leads to a set of equivalent parametrisations. This time-rank duality is attractive theoretically and leads to quicker ways of dis-entangling driver and car level effects.

stat.AP

Combining Individual and Joint Networking Behavior for Intelligent IoT Analytics

The IoT vision of a trillion connected devices over the next decade requires reliable end-to-end connectivity and automated device management platforms. While we have seen successful efforts for maintaining small IoT testbeds, there are multiple challenges for the efficient management of large-scale device deployments. With Industrial IoT, incorporating millions of devices, traditional management methods do not scale well. In this work, we address these challenges by designing a set of novel machine learning techniques, which form a foundation of a new tool, it IoTelligent, for IoT device management, using traffic characteristics obtained at the network level. The design of our tool is driven by the analysis of 1-year long networking data, collected from 350 companies with IoT deployments. The exploratory analysis of this data reveals that IoT environments follow the famous Pareto principle, such as: (i) 10% of the companies in the dataset contribute to 90% of the entire traffic; (ii) 7% of all the companies in the set own 90% of all the devices. We designed and evaluated CNN, LSTM, and Convolutional LSTM models for demand forecasting, with a conclusion of the Convolutional LSTM model being the best. However, maintaining and updating individual company models is expensive. In this work, we design a novel, scalable approach, where a general demand forecasting model is built using the combined data of all the companies with a normalization factor. Moreover, we introduce a novel technique for device management, based on autoencoders. They automatically extract relevant device features to identify device groups with similar behavior to flag anomalous devices.

cs.LG