arXiv subjects

John Gathergood

Publications and source records attributed to John Gathergood.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2023

Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL)...On Your Credit Card

We provide the first economic research on `buy now, pay later' (BNPL): an unregulated FinTech credit product enabling consumers to defer payments into interest-free instalments. We study BNPL using UK credit card transaction data. We document consumers charging BNPL transactions to their credit card. Charging of BNPL to credit cards is most prevalent among younger consumers and those living in the most deprived geographies. Charging a $0\%$ interest, amortizing BNPL debt to credit cards - where typical interest rates are $20\%$ and amortization schedules decades-long - raises doubts on these consumers' ability to pay for BNPL. This prompts a regulatory question as to whether consumers should be allowed to refinance their unsecured debt.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2021

The English Patient: Evaluating Local Lockdowns Using Real-Time COVID-19 & Consumption Data

We find UK 'local lockdowns' of cities and small regions, focused on limiting how many people a household can interact with and in what settings, are effective in turning the tide on rising positive COVID-19 cases. Yet, by focusing on household mixing within the home, these local lockdowns have not inflicted the large declines in consumption observed in March 2020 when the first virus wave and first national lockdown occurred. Our study harnesses a new source of real-time, transaction-level consumption data that we show to be highly correlated with official statistics. The effectiveness of local lockdowns are evaluated applying a difference-in-difference approach which exploits nearby localities not subject to local lockdowns as comparison groups. Our findings indicate that policymakers may be able to contain virus outbreaks without killing local economies. However, the ultimate effectiveness of local lockdowns is expected to be highly dependent on co-ordination between regions and an effective system of testing.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2020

Levelling Down and the COVID-19 Lockdowns: Uneven Regional Recovery in UK Consumer Spending

We show the recovery in consumer spending in the United Kingdom through the second half of 2020 is unevenly distributed across regions. We utilise Fable Data: a real-time source of consumption data that is a highly correlated, leading indicator of Bank of England and Office for National Statistics data. The UK's recovery is heavily weighted towards the "home counties" around outer London and the South. We observe a stark contrast between strong online spending growth while offline spending contracts. The strongest recovery in spending is seen in online spending in the "commuter belt" areas in outer London and the surrounding localities and also in areas of high second home ownership, where working from home (including working from second homes) has significantly displaced the location of spending. Year-on-year spending growth in November 2020 in localities facing the UK's new tighter "Tier 3" restrictions (mostly the midlands and northern areas) was 38.4% lower compared with areas facing the less restrictive "Tier 2" (mostly London and the South). These patterns had been further exacerbated during November 2020 when a second national lockdown was imposed. To prevent such COVID-19-driven regional inequalities from becoming persistent we propose governments introduce temporary, regionally-targeted interventions in 2021. The availability of real-time, regional data enables policymakers to efficiently decide when, where and how to implement such regional interventions and to be able to rapidly evaluate their effectiveness to consider whether to expand, modify or remove them.

econ.GN↗