arXiv subjects

John Lafferty

Publications and source records attributed to John Lafferty.

54 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2012

Variational Chernoff Bounds for Graphical Models

Recent research has made significant progress on the problem of bounding log partition functions for exponential family graphical models. Such bounds have associated dual parameters that are often used as heuristic estimates of the marginal probabilities required in inference and learning. However these variational estimates do not give rigorous bounds on marginal probabilities, nor do they give estimates for probabilities of more general events than simple marginals. In this paper we build on this recent work by deriving rigorous upper and lower bounds on event probabilities for graphical models. Our approach is based on the use of generalized Chernoff bounds to express bounds on event probabilities in terms of convex optimization problems; these optimization problems, in turn, require estimates of generalized log partition functions. Simulations indicate that this technique can result in useful, rigorous bounds to complement the heuristic variational estimates, with comparable computational cost.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2012

Sequential Nonparametric Regression

We present algorithms for nonparametric regression in settings where the data are obtained sequentially. While traditional estimators select bandwidths that depend upon the sample size, for sequential data the effective sample size is dynamically changing. We propose a linear time algorithm that adjusts the bandwidth for each new data point, and show that the estimator achieves the optimal minimax rate of convergence. We also propose the use of online expert mixing algorithms to adapt to unknown smoothness of the regression function. We provide simulations that confirm the theoretical results, and demonstrate the effectiveness of the methods.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2012

Conditional Sparse Coding and Grouped Multivariate Regression

We study the problem of multivariate regression where the data are naturally grouped, and a regression matrix is to be estimated for each group. We propose an approach in which a dictionary of low rank parameter matrices is estimated across groups, and a sparse linear combination of the dictionary elements is estimated to form a model within each group. We refer to the method as conditional sparse coding since it is a coding procedure for the response vectors Y conditioned on the covariate vectors X. This approach captures the shared information across the groups while adapting to the structure within each group. It exploits the same intuition behind sparse coding that has been successfully developed in computer vision and computational neuroscience. We propose an algorithm for conditional sparse coding, analyze its theoretical properties in terms of predictive accuracy, and present the results of simulation and brain imaging experiments that compare the new technique to reduced rank regression.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2012

The Nonparanormal SKEPTIC

We propose a semiparametric approach, named nonparanormal skeptic, for estimating high dimensional undirected graphical models. In terms of modeling, we consider the nonparanormal family proposed by Liu et al (2009). In terms of estimation, we exploit nonparametric rank-based correlation coefficient estimators including the Spearman's rho and Kendall's tau. In high dimensional settings, we prove that the nonparanormal skeptic achieves the optimal parametric rate of convergence in both graph and parameter estimation. This result suggests that the nonparanormal graphical models are a safe replacement of the Gaussian graphical models, even when the data are Gaussian.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2012

Sparse Additive Functional and Kernel CCA

Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) is a classical tool for finding correlations among the components of two random vectors. In recent years, CCA has been widely applied to the analysis of genomic data, where it is common for researchers to perform multiple assays on a single set of patient samples. Recent work has proposed sparse variants of CCA to address the high dimensionality of such data. However, classical and sparse CCA are based on linear models, and are thus limited in their ability to find general correlations. In this paper, we present two approaches to high-dimensional nonparametric CCA, building on recent developments in high-dimensional nonparametric regression. We present estimation procedures for both approaches, and analyze their theoretical properties in the high-dimensional setting. We demonstrate the effectiveness of these procedures in discovering nonlinear correlations via extensive simulations, as well as through experiments with genomic data.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2010

Forest Density Estimation

We study graph estimation and density estimation in high dimensions, using a family of density estimators based on forest structured undirected graphical models. For density estimation, we do not assume the true distribution corresponds to a forest; rather, we form kernel density estimates of the bivariate and univariate marginals, and apply Kruskal's algorithm to estimate the optimal forest on held out data. We prove an oracle inequality on the excess risk of the resulting estimator relative to the risk of the best forest. For graph estimation, we consider the problem of estimating forests with restricted tree sizes. We prove that finding a maximum weight spanning forest with restricted tree size is NP-hard, and develop an approximation algorithm for this problem. Viewing the tree size as a complexity parameter, we then select a forest using data splitting, and prove bounds on excess risk and structure selection consistency of the procedure. Experiments with simulated data and microarray data indicate that the methods are a practical alternative to Gaussian graphical models.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2010

Union Support Recovery in Multi-task Learning

We sharply characterize the performance of different penalization schemes for the problem of selecting the relevant variables in the multi-task setting. Previous work focuses on the regression problem where conditions on the design matrix complicate the analysis. A clearer and simpler picture emerges by studying the Normal means model. This model, often used in the field of statistics, is a simplified model that provides a laboratory for studying complex procedures.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2010

Graph-Valued Regression

Undirected graphical models encode in a graph $G$ the dependency structure of a random vector $Y$. In many applications, it is of interest to model $Y$ given another random vector $X$ as input. We refer to the problem of estimating the graph $G(x)$ of $Y$ conditioned on $X=x$ as ``graph-valued regression.'' In this paper, we propose a semiparametric method for estimating $G(x)$ that builds a tree on the $X$ space just as in CART (classification and regression trees), but at each leaf of the tree estimates a graph. We call the method ``Graph-optimized CART,'' or Go-CART. We study the theoretical properties of Go-CART using dyadic partitioning trees, establishing oracle inequalities on risk minimization and tree partition consistency. We also demonstrate the application of Go-CART to a meteorological dataset, showing how graph-valued regression can provide a useful tool for analyzing complex data.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2009

The Nonparanormal: Semiparametric Estimation of High Dimensional Undirected Graphs

Recent methods for estimating sparse undirected graphs for real-valued data in high dimensional problems rely heavily on the assumption of normality. We show how to use a semiparametric Gaussian copula--or "nonparanormal"--for high dimensional inference. Just as additive models extend linear models by replacing linear functions with a set of one-dimensional smooth functions, the nonparanormal extends the normal by transforming the variables by smooth functions. We derive a method for estimating the nonparanormal, study the method's theoretical properties, and show that it works well in many examples.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2008

Time Varying Undirected Graphs

Undirected graphs are often used to describe high dimensional distributions. Under sparsity conditions, the graph can be estimated using $\ell_1$ penalization methods. However, current methods assume that the data are independent and identically distributed. If the distribution, and hence the graph, evolves over time then the data are not longer identically distributed. In this paper, we show how to estimate the sequence of graphs for non-identically distributed data, where the distribution evolves over time.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2008

Sparse Additive Models

We present a new class of methods for high-dimensional nonparametric regression and classification called sparse additive models (SpAM). Our methods combine ideas from sparse linear modeling and additive nonparametric regression. We derive an algorithm for fitting the models that is practical and effective even when the number of covariates is larger than the sample size. SpAM is closely related to the COSSO model of Lin and Zhang (2006), but decouples smoothing and sparsity, enabling the use of arbitrary nonparametric smoothers. An analysis of the theoretical properties of SpAM is given. We also study a greedy estimator that is a nonparametric version of forward stepwise regression. Empirical results on synthetic and real data are presented, showing that SpAM can be effective in fitting sparse nonparametric models in high dimensional data.

math.ST↗

arXiv2008

Rodeo: Sparse, greedy nonparametric regression

We present a greedy method for simultaneously performing local bandwidth selection and variable selection in nonparametric regression. The method starts with a local linear estimator with large bandwidths, and incrementally decreases the bandwidth of variables for which the gradient of the estimator with respect to bandwidth is large. The method--called rodeo (regularization of derivative expectation operator)--conducts a sequence of hypothesis tests to threshold derivatives, and is easy to implement. Under certain assumptions on the regression function and sampling density, it is shown that the rodeo applied to local linear smoothing avoids the curse of dimensionality, achieving near optimal minimax rates of convergence in the number of relevant variables, as if these variables were isolated in advance.

math.ST↗

arXiv2008

Compressed Regression

Recent research has studied the role of sparsity in high dimensional regression and signal reconstruction, establishing theoretical limits for recovering sparse models from sparse data. This line of work shows that $\ell_1$-regularized least squares regression can accurately estimate a sparse linear model from $n$ noisy examples in $p$ dimensions, even if $p$ is much larger than $n$. In this paper we study a variant of this problem where the original $n$ input variables are compressed by a random linear transformation to $m \ll n$ examples in $p$ dimensions, and establish conditions under which a sparse linear model can be successfully recovered from the compressed data. A primary motivation for this compression procedure is to anonymize the data and preserve privacy by revealing little information about the original data. We characterize the number of random projections that are required for $\ell_1$-regularized compressed regression to identify the nonzero coefficients in the true model with probability approaching one, a property called ``sparsistence.'' In addition, we show that $\ell_1$-regularized compressed regression asymptotically predicts as well as an oracle linear model, a property called ``persistence.'' Finally, we characterize the privacy properties of the compression procedure in information-theoretic terms, establishing upper bounds on the mutual information between the compressed and uncompressed data that decay to zero.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2006

Rodeo: Sparse Nonparametric Regression in High Dimensions

math.ST↗

arXiv1997

A Model of Lexical Attraction and Repulsion

This paper introduces new methods based on exponential families for modeling the correlations between words in text and speech. While previous work assumed the effects of word co-occurrence statistics to be constant over a window of several hundred words, we show that their influence is nonstationary on a much smaller time scale. Empirical data drawn from English and Japanese text, as well as conversational speech, reveals that the ``attraction'' between words decays exponentially, while stylistic and syntactic contraints create a ``repulsion'' between words that discourages close co-occurrence. We show that these characteristics are well described by simple mixture models based on two-stage exponential distributions which can be trained using the EM algorithm. The resulting distance distributions can then be incorporated as penalizing features in an exponential language model.

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arXiv1997

Text Segmentation Using Exponential Models

This paper introduces a new statistical approach to partitioning text automatically into coherent segments. Our approach enlists both short-range and long-range language models to help it sniff out likely sites of topic changes in text. To aid its search, the system consults a set of simple lexical hints it has learned to associate with the presence of boundaries through inspection of a large corpus of annotated data. We also propose a new probabilistically motivated error metric for use by the natural language processing and information retrieval communities, intended to supersede precision and recall for appraising segmentation algorithms. Qualitative assessment of our algorithm as well as evaluation using this new metric demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in two very different domains, Wall Street Journal articles and the TDT Corpus, a collection of newswire articles and broadcast news transcripts.

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arXiv1995

A Robust Parsing Algorithm For Link Grammars

In this paper we present a robust parsing algorithm based on the link grammar formalism for parsing natural languages. Our algorithm is a natural extension of the original dynamic programming recognition algorithm which recursively counts the number of linkages between two words in the input sentence. The modified algorithm uses the notion of a null link in order to allow a connection between any pair of adjacent words, regardless of their dictionary definitions. The algorithm proceeds by making three dynamic programming passes. In the first pass, the input is parsed using the original algorithm which enforces the constraints on links to ensure grammaticality. In the second pass, the total cost of each substring of words is computed, where cost is determined by the number of null links necessary to parse the substring. The final pass counts the total number of parses with minimal cost. All of the original pruning techniques have natural counterparts in the robust algorithm. When used together with memoization, these techniques enable the algorithm to run efficiently with cubic worst-case complexity. We have implemented these ideas and tested them by parsing the Switchboard corpus of conversational English. This corpus is comprised of approximately three million words of text, corresponding to more than 150 hours of transcribed speech collected from telephone conversations restricted to 70 different topics. Although only a small fraction of the sentences in this corpus are "grammatical" by standard criteria, the robust link grammar parser is able to extract relevant structure for a large portion of the sentences. We present the results of our experiments using this system, including the analyses of selected and random sentences from the corpus.

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arXiv1994

Towards History-based Grammars: Using Richer Models for Probabilistic Parsing

We describe a generative probabilistic model of natural language, which we call HBG, that takes advantage of detailed linguistic information to resolve ambiguity. HBG incorporates lexical, syntactic, semantic, and structural information from the parse tree into the disambiguation process in a novel way. We use a corpus of bracketed sentences, called a Treebank, in combination with decision tree building to tease out the relevant aspects of a parse tree that will determine the correct parse of a sentence. This stands in contrast to the usual approach of further grammar tailoring via the usual linguistic introspection in the hope of generating the correct parse. In head-to-head tests against one of the best existing robust probabilistic parsing models, which we call P-CFG, the HBG model significantly outperforms P-CFG, increasing the parsing accuracy rate from 60% to 75%, a 37% reduction in error.

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