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John M. Anderies

Publications and source records attributed to John M. Anderies.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

All Public Voices Are Equal, But Are Some More Equal Than Others to LLMs?

Federal agencies are increasingly deploying large language models (LLMs) to process public comments submitted during notice-and-comment rulemaking, the primary mechanism through which citizens influence federal regulation. Whether these systems treat all public input equally remains largely untested. Using a counterfactual design, we held comment content constant and varied only the commenter's demographic attribution -- race, gender, and socioeconomic status -- to test whether eight LLMs available for federal use produce differential summaries of identical comments. We processed 182 public comments across 32 identity conditions, generating over 106,000 summaries. Occupation was the only identity signal to produce consistent differential treatment: the same comment attributed to a street vendor, compared to a financial analyst, received a summary that preserved less of the original meaning, used simpler language, and shifted emotional tone. This pattern held across all names, prompts, models, and regulatory contexts tested. Race effects were inconsistent and appeared driven by specific name tokens rather than racial categories; gender effects were absent. Writing quality predicted summarization outcomes through argument substance rather than surface mechanics; experimentally injected spelling and grammar errors had negligible effects. The magnitude of occupation-based differential treatment varied by model provider, meaning that selecting a model implicitly selects a level of fairness -- a dimension that current procurement frameworks such as FedRAMP do not evaluate. These findings suggest that socioeconomic signals warrant attention in AI fairness assessments for government information systems, and that fairness benchmarks could be incorporated into existing federal IT procurement processes.

cs.CY↗

How Large Language Models Systematically Misrepresent American Climate Opinions

Federal agencies and researchers increasingly use large language models to analyze and simulate public opinion. When AI mediates between the public and policymakers, accuracy across intersecting identities becomes consequential; inaccurate group-level estimates may mislead outreach, consultation, and policy design. While research examines intersectionality in LLM outputs, few studies have compared these outputs against real human responses across intersecting identities. Climate policy is one such domain, and this is particularly urgent for climate change, where opinion is contested and diverse. We investigate how LLMs represent demographic and intersectional patterns in U.S. climate opinions. We prompted six LLMs with profiles of 978 respondents from a nationally representative U.S. climate opinion survey and compared AI-generated responses to actual human answers across 20 questions. We find that LLMs appear to compress the diversity of American climate opinions, predicting less-concerned groups as more concerned and vice versa. This compression is intersectional: LLMs appear to apply uniform gender assumptions that match reality for White and Hispanic Americans but may misrepresent Black Americans, where actual gender patterns differ. These patterns, which may be invisible to standard auditing approaches, could undermine equitable climate governance.

cs.CY↗

Design for Dynamic Fitness: Archetypes of urban water systems

In an era of accelerating change, urban water infrastructure systems increasingly operate outside of their design conditions, putting new pressure on systems' institutional designs to weather emerging challenges. Water management institutions must therefore be designed to exhibit dynamic fitness, defined by anticipatory capacity and responsiveness. However, we do not yet understand the specific features of institutional design that enable dynamic fitness, especially in relation to the diverse biophysical characteristics of systems that such fitness is contingent upon. We advance research on dynamic fitness in the context of urban water supply systems by drawing on 35-year data sets of stressors and responses for 16 U.S. urban water utilities using archetype analysis. Here we find that institutional archetypes capable of coping with higher biophysical complexity invest in both information processing capacity and response diversity. While dynamic fitness comes at a cost, balance between information processing capacity and response diversity promotes efficiency, which can be expanded through polycentric regional institutional structures that facilitate information sharing. Lastly, careful consideration should be given to tradeoffs across levels of governance, as institutional structures that facilitate dynamic fitness at the utility level may reduce the control and flexibility of higher levels of governance.

econ.TH↗

Politics, Inequality, and the Robustness of Shared Infrastructure Systems

Our infrastructure systems enable our well-being by allowing us to move, store, and transform materials and information given considerable social and environmental variation. Critically, this ability is shaped by the degree to which society invests in infrastructure, a fundamentally political question in large public systems. There, infrastructure providers are distinguished from users through political processes, such as elections, and there is considerable heterogeneity among users. Previous political economic models have not taken into account (i) dynamic infrastructures, (ii) dynamic user preferences, and (iii) alternatives to rational actor theory. Meanwhile, engineering often neglects politics. We address these gaps with a general dynamic model of shared infrastructure systems that incorporates theories from political economy, social-ecological systems, and political psychology. We use the model to develop propositions on how multiple characteristics of the political process impact the robustness of shared infrastructure systems to capacity shocks and unequal opportunity for private infrastructure investment. Under user fees, inequality decreases robustness, but taxing private infrastructure use can increase robustness if non-elites have equal political influence. Election cycle periods have a nonlinear effect where increasing them increases robustness up to a point but decreases robustness beyond that point. Further, there is a negative relationship between the ideological sensitivity of candidates and robustness. Overall, the biases of voters and candidates (whether they favor tax increases or decreases) mediate these political-economic effects on robustness because biases may or may not match the reality of system needs (whether system recovery requires tax increases).

econ.TH↗

Conceptualizing World-Earth System resilience: Exploring transformation pathways towards a safe and just operating space for humanity

We develop a framework within which to conceptualize World-Earth System resilience. Our notion of World-Earth System resilience emphasizes the need to move beyond the basin of attraction notion of resilience as we are not in a basin we can stay in. We are on a trajectory to a new basin and we have to avoid falling into undesirable basins. We thus focus on `pathway resilience', i.e. the relative number of paths that allow us to move from the transitional operating space we occupy now as we leave the Holocene basin to a safe and just operating space in the Anthropocene. We develop a mathematical model to formalize this conceptualization and demonstrate how interactions between earth system resilience (biophysical processes) and world system resilience (social processes) impact pathway resilience. Our findings show that building earth system resilience is probably our only chance to reach a safe and just operating space. We also illustrate the importance of world system dynamics by showing how the notion of fairness coupled with regional inequality affects pathway resilience.

physics.soc-ph↗