arXiv subjects

John P. Cunningham

Publications and source records attributed to John P. Cunningham.

53 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2019

Expectation propagation as a way of life: A framework for Bayesian inference on partitioned data

A common divide-and-conquer approach for Bayesian computation with big data is to partition the data, perform local inference for each piece separately, and combine the results to obtain a global posterior approximation. While being conceptually and computationally appealing, this method involves the problematic need to also split the prior for the local inferences; these weakened priors may not provide enough regularization for each separate computation, thus eliminating one of the key advantages of Bayesian methods. To resolve this dilemma while still retaining the generalizability of the underlying local inference method, we apply the idea of expectation propagation (EP) as a framework for distributed Bayesian inference. The central idea is to iteratively update approximations to the local likelihoods given the state of the other approximations and the prior. The present paper has two roles: we review the steps that are needed to keep EP algorithms numerically stable, and we suggest a general approach, inspired by EP, for approaching data partitioning problems in a way that achieves the computational benefits of parallelism while allowing each local update to make use of relevant information from the other sites. In addition, we demonstrate how the method can be applied in a hierarchical context to make use of partitioning of both data and parameters. The paper describes a general algorithmic framework, rather than a specific algorithm, and presents an example implementation for it.

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arXiv2019

Approximating exponential family models (not single distributions) with a two-network architecture

Recently much attention has been paid to deep generative models, since they have been used to great success for variational inference, generation of complex data types, and more. In most all of these settings, the goal has been to find a particular member of that model family: optimized parameters index a distribution that is close (via a divergence or classification metric) to a target distribution. Much less attention, however, has been paid to the problem of learning a model itself. Here we introduce a two-network architecture and optimization procedure for learning intractable exponential family models (not a single distribution from those models). These exponential families are learned accurately, allowing operations like posterior inference to be executed directly and generically with an input choice of natural parameters, rather than performing inference via optimization for each particular distribution within that model.

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arXiv2018

A Probabilistic Model of Cardiac Physiology and Electrocardiograms

An electrocardiogram (EKG) is a common, non-invasive test that measures the electrical activity of a patient's heart. EKGs contain useful diagnostic information about patient health that may be absent from other electronic health record (EHR) data. As multi-dimensional waveforms, they could be modeled using generic machine learning tools, such as a linear factor model or a variational autoencoder. We take a different approach:~we specify a model that directly represents the underlying electrophysiology of the heart and the EKG measurement process. We apply our model to two datasets, including a sample of emergency department EKG reports with missing data. We show that our model can more accurately reconstruct missing data (measured by test reconstruction error) than a standard baseline when there is significant missing data. More broadly, this physiological representation of heart function may be useful in a variety of settings, including prediction, causal analysis, and discovery.

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arXiv2018

Calibrating Deep Convolutional Gaussian Processes

The wide adoption of Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) in applications where decision-making under uncertainty is fundamental, has brought a great deal of attention to the ability of these models to accurately quantify the uncertainty in their predictions. Previous work on combining CNNs with Gaussian processes (GPs) has been developed under the assumption that the predictive probabilities of these models are well-calibrated. In this paper we show that, in fact, current combinations of CNNs and GPs are miscalibrated. We proposes a novel combination that considerably outperforms previous approaches on this aspect, while achieving state-of-the-art performance on image classification tasks.

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arXiv2018

Bayesian estimation for large scale multivariate Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model of brain connectivity

Estimation of reliable whole-brain connectivity is a crucial step towards the use of connectivity information in quantitative approaches to the study of neuropsychiatric disorders. When estimating brain connectivity a challenge is imposed by the paucity of time samples and the large dimensionality of the measurements. Bayesian estimation methods for network models offer a number of advantages in this context but are not commonly employed. Here we compare three different estimation methods for the multivariate Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model, that has recently gained some popularity for characterizing whole-brain connectivity. We first show that a Bayesian estimation of model parameters assuming uniform priors is equivalent to an application of the method of moments. Then, using synthetic data, we show that the Bayesian estimate scales poorly with number of nodes in the network as compared to an iterative Lyapunov optimization. In particular when the network size is in the order of that used for whole-brain studies (about 100 nodes) the Bayesian method needs about eight times more time samples than Lyapunov method in order to achieve similar estimation accuracy. We also show that the higher estimation accuracy of Lyapunov method is reflected in a much better classification of individuals based on the estimated connectivity from a real dataset of BOLD fMRI. Finally we show that the poor accuracy of Bayesian method is due to numerical errors, when the imaginary part of the connectivity estimate gets large compared to its real part.

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arXiv2017

Reparameterizing the Birkhoff Polytope for Variational Permutation Inference

Many matching, tracking, sorting, and ranking problems require probabilistic reasoning about possible permutations, a set that grows factorially with dimension. Combinatorial optimization algorithms may enable efficient point estimation, but fully Bayesian inference poses a severe challenge in this high-dimensional, discrete space. To surmount this challenge, we start with the usual step of relaxing a discrete set (here, of permutation matrices) to its convex hull, which here is the Birkhoff polytope: the set of all doubly-stochastic matrices. We then introduce two novel transformations: first, an invertible and differentiable stick-breaking procedure that maps unconstrained space to the Birkhoff polytope; second, a map that rounds points toward the vertices of the polytope. Both transformations include a temperature parameter that, in the limit, concentrates the densities on permutation matrices. We then exploit these transformations and reparameterization gradients to introduce variational inference over permutation matrices, and we demonstrate its utility in a series of experiments.

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arXiv2017

Sparse Probit Linear Mixed Model

Linear Mixed Models (LMMs) are important tools in statistical genetics. When used for feature selection, they allow to find a sparse set of genetic traits that best predict a continuous phenotype of interest, while simultaneously correcting for various confounding factors such as age, ethnicity and population structure. Formulated as models for linear regression, LMMs have been restricted to continuous phenotypes. We introduce the Sparse Probit Linear Mixed Model (Probit-LMM), where we generalize the LMM modeling paradigm to binary phenotypes. As a technical challenge, the model no longer possesses a closed-form likelihood function. In this paper, we present a scalable approximate inference algorithm that lets us fit the model to high-dimensional data sets. We show on three real-world examples from different domains that in the setup of binary labels, our algorithm leads to better prediction accuracies and also selects features which show less correlation with the confounding factors.

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arXiv2017

Maximum Entropy Flow Networks

Maximum entropy modeling is a flexible and popular framework for formulating statistical models given partial knowledge. In this paper, rather than the traditional method of optimizing over the continuous density directly, we learn a smooth and invertible transformation that maps a simple distribution to the desired maximum entropy distribution. Doing so is nontrivial in that the objective being maximized (entropy) is a function of the density itself. By exploiting recent developments in normalizing flow networks, we cast the maximum entropy problem into a finite-dimensional constrained optimization, and solve the problem by combining stochastic optimization with the augmented Lagrangian method. Simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of our method, and applications to finance and computer vision show the flexibility and accuracy of using maximum entropy flow networks.

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arXiv2017

Automated scalable segmentation of neurons from multispectral images

Reconstruction of neuroanatomy is a fundamental problem in neuroscience. Stochastic expression of colors in individual cells is a promising tool, although its use in the nervous system has been limited due to various sources of variability in expression. Moreover, the intermingled anatomy of neuronal trees is challenging for existing segmentation algorithms. Here, we propose a method to automate the segmentation of neurons in such (potentially pseudo-colored) images. The method uses spatio-color relations between the voxels, generates supervoxels to reduce the problem size by four orders of magnitude before the final segmentation, and is parallelizable over the supervoxels. To quantify performance and gain insight, we generate simulated images, where the noise level and characteristics, the density of expression, and the number of fluorophore types are variable. We also present segmentations of real Brainbow images of the mouse hippocampus, which reveal many of the dendritic segments.

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arXiv2016

Linear dynamical neural population models through nonlinear embeddings

A body of recent work in modeling neural activity focuses on recovering low-dimensional latent features that capture the statistical structure of large-scale neural populations. Most such approaches have focused on linear generative models, where inference is computationally tractable. Here, we propose fLDS, a general class of nonlinear generative models that permits the firing rate of each neuron to vary as an arbitrary smooth function of a latent, linear dynamical state. This extra flexibility allows the model to capture a richer set of neural variability than a purely linear model, but retains an easily visualizable low-dimensional latent space. To fit this class of non-conjugate models we propose a variational inference scheme, along with a novel approximate posterior capable of capturing rich temporal correlations across time. We show that our techniques permit inference in a wide class of generative models.We also show in application to two neural datasets that, compared to state-of-the-art neural population models, fLDS captures a much larger proportion of neural variability with a small number of latent dimensions, providing superior predictive performance and interpretability.

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arXiv2016

Bayesian Learning of Kernel Embeddings

Kernel methods are one of the mainstays of machine learning, but the problem of kernel learning remains challenging, with only a few heuristics and very little theory. This is of particular importance in methods based on estimation of kernel mean embeddings of probability measures. For characteristic kernels, which include most commonly used ones, the kernel mean embedding uniquely determines its probability measure, so it can be used to design a powerful statistical testing framework, which includes nonparametric two-sample and independence tests. In practice, however, the performance of these tests can be very sensitive to the choice of kernel and its lengthscale parameters. To address this central issue, we propose a new probabilistic model for kernel mean embeddings, the Bayesian Kernel Embedding model, combining a Gaussian process prior over the Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space containing the mean embedding with a conjugate likelihood function, thus yielding a closed form posterior over the mean embedding. The posterior mean of our model is closely related to recently proposed shrinkage estimators for kernel mean embeddings, while the posterior uncertainty is a new, interesting feature with various possible applications. Critically for the purposes of kernel learning, our model gives a simple, closed form marginal pseudolikelihood of the observed data given the kernel hyperparameters. This marginal pseudolikelihood can either be optimized to inform the hyperparameter choice or fully Bayesian inference can be used.

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arXiv2016

Preconditioning Kernel Matrices

The computational and storage complexity of kernel machines presents the primary barrier to their scaling to large, modern, datasets. A common way to tackle the scalability issue is to use the conjugate gradient algorithm, which relieves the constraints on both storage (the kernel matrix need not be stored) and computation (both stochastic gradients and parallelization can be used). Even so, conjugate gradient is not without its own issues: the conditioning of kernel matrices is often such that conjugate gradients will have poor convergence in practice. Preconditioning is a common approach to alleviating this issue. Here we propose preconditioned conjugate gradients for kernel machines, and develop a broad range of preconditioners particularly useful for kernel matrices. We describe a scalable approach to both solving kernel machines and learning their hyperparameters. We show this approach is exact in the limit of iterations and outperforms state-of-the-art approximations for a given computational budget.

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arXiv2016

Linear Dimensionality Reduction: Survey, Insights, and Generalizations

Linear dimensionality reduction methods are a cornerstone of analyzing high dimensional data, due to their simple geometric interpretations and typically attractive computational properties. These methods capture many data features of interest, such as covariance, dynamical structure, correlation between data sets, input-output relationships, and margin between data classes. Methods have been developed with a variety of names and motivations in many fields, and perhaps as a result the connections between all these methods have not been highlighted. Here we survey methods from this disparate literature as optimization programs over matrix manifolds. We discuss principal component analysis, factor analysis, linear multidimensional scaling, Fisher's linear discriminant analysis, canonical correlations analysis, maximum autocorrelation factors, slow feature analysis, sufficient dimensionality reduction, undercomplete independent component analysis, linear regression, distance metric learning, and more. This optimization framework gives insight to some rarely discussed shortcomings of well-known methods, such as the suboptimality of certain eigenvector solutions. Modern techniques for optimization over matrix manifolds enable a generic linear dimensionality reduction solver, which accepts as input data and an objective to be optimized, and returns, as output, an optimal low-dimensional projection of the data. This simple optimization framework further allows straightforward generalizations and novel variants of classical methods, which we demonstrate here by creating an orthogonal-projection canonical correlations analysis. More broadly, this survey and generic solver suggest that linear dimensionality reduction can move toward becoming a blackbox, objective-agnostic numerical technology.

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arXiv2016

Neuroprosthetic decoder training as imitation learning

Neuroprosthetic brain-computer interfaces function via an algorithm which decodes neural activity of the user into movements of an end effector, such as a cursor or robotic arm. In practice, the decoder is often learned by updating its parameters while the user performs a task. When the user's intention is not directly observable, recent methods have demonstrated value in training the decoder against a surrogate for the user's intended movement. We describe how training a decoder in this way is a novel variant of an imitation learning problem, where an oracle or expert is employed for supervised training in lieu of direct observations, which are not available. Specifically, we describe how a generic imitation learning meta-algorithm, dataset aggregation (DAgger, [1]), can be adapted to train a generic brain-computer interface. By deriving existing learning algorithms for brain-computer interfaces in this framework, we provide a novel analysis of regret (an important metric of learning efficacy) for brain-computer interfaces. This analysis allows us to characterize the space of algorithmic variants and bounds on their regret rates. Existing approaches for decoder learning have been performed in the cursor control setting, but the available design principles for these decoders are such that it has been impossible to scale them to naturalistic settings. Leveraging our findings, we then offer an algorithm that combines imitation learning with optimal control, which should allow for training of arbitrary effectors for which optimal control can generate goal-oriented control. We demonstrate this novel and general BCI algorithm with simulated neuroprosthetic control of a 26 degree-of-freedom model of an arm, a sophisticated and realistic end effector.

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arXiv2013

GPatt: Fast Multidimensional Pattern Extrapolation with Gaussian Processes

Gaussian processes are typically used for smoothing and interpolation on small datasets. We introduce a new Bayesian nonparametric framework -- GPatt -- enabling automatic pattern extrapolation with Gaussian processes on large multidimensional datasets. GPatt unifies and extends highly expressive kernels and fast exact inference techniques. Without human intervention -- no hand crafting of kernel features, and no sophisticated initialisation procedures -- we show that GPatt can solve large scale pattern extrapolation, inpainting, and kernel discovery problems, including a problem with 383400 training points. We find that GPatt significantly outperforms popular alternative scalable Gaussian process methods in speed and accuracy. Moreover, we discover profound differences between each of these methods, suggesting expressive kernels, nonparametric representations, and exact inference are useful for modelling large scale multidimensional patterns.

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arXiv2013

Gaussian Probabilities and Expectation Propagation

While Gaussian probability densities are omnipresent in applied mathematics, Gaussian cumulative probabilities are hard to calculate in any but the univariate case. We study the utility of Expectation Propagation (EP) as an approximate integration method for this problem. For rectangular integration regions, the approximation is highly accurate. We also extend the derivations to the more general case of polyhedral integration regions. However, we find that in this polyhedral case, EP's answer, though often accurate, can be almost arbitrarily wrong. We consider these unexpected results empirically and theoretically, both for the problem of Gaussian probabilities and for EP more generally. These results elucidate an interesting and non-obvious feature of EP not yet studied in detail.

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arXiv2012

Scaling Multidimensional Inference for Structured Gaussian Processes

Exact Gaussian Process (GP) regression has O(N^3) runtime for data size N, making it intractable for large N. Many algorithms for improving GP scaling approximate the covariance with lower rank matrices. Other work has exploited structure inherent in particular covariance functions, including GPs with implied Markov structure, and equispaced inputs (both enable O(N) runtime). However, these GP advances have not been extended to the multidimensional input setting, despite the preponderance of multidimensional applications. This paper introduces and tests novel extensions of structured GPs to multidimensional inputs. We present new methods for additive GPs, showing a novel connection between the classic backfitting method and the Bayesian framework. To achieve optimal accuracy-complexity tradeoff, we extend this model with a novel variant of projection pursuit regression. Our primary result -- projection pursuit Gaussian Process Regression -- shows orders of magnitude speedup while preserving high accuracy. The natural second and third steps include non-Gaussian observations and higher dimensional equispaced grid methods. We introduce novel techniques to address both of these necessary directions. We thoroughly illustrate the power of these three advances on several datasets, achieving close performance to the naive Full GP at orders of magnitude less cost.

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