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John S. Schreck

Publications and source records attributed to John S. Schreck.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2026

Winter Precipitation Type Diagnosis and Uncertainty Quantification with a Physically Consistent Machine Learning Method

Accurately forecasting winter precipitation type and its transitions is critical for high-impact decision making. However, existing methods struggle in thermodynamically ambiguous regimes, and most do not quantify forecast uncertainty from a single model run. We developed an evidential neural network that predicts calibrated probabilities for four winter precipitation types (rain, snow, freezing rain, and ice pellets) along with epistemic uncertainty estimates at the computational cost of a standard neural network. The model was trained on quality-controlled and curated observations from the crowd-sourced mPING dataset paired with vertical thermodynamic profiles from the NOAA Rapid Refresh model analyses. Rigorous physical quality control removed thermodynamically implausible reports. Bulk evaluation against held-out mPING observations from June 2020 through June 2022 shows the ML model outperforms area-based deterministic methods in success ratio for freezing rain and ice pellets while maintaining comparable or better performance for rain and snow. A reduced freezing rain probability of detection reflects genuinely ambiguous thermodynamic environments rather than a uniform model deficiency and is more robustly represented through the full probability distribution than through the dominant predicted class alone. Thermodynamic regime analysis demonstrates that model prediction errors are physically structured and concentrated in interpretable regions of diagnostic space consistent with the known difficulty of freezing rain and ice pellet discrimination. We further demonstrate the model's physical consistency and operational utility through two contrasting mid-western U.S. winter storm case studies and an interactive visualization tool that enables dynamic interrogation of model predictions and uncertainty in real time.

physics.ao-ph↗
arXiv2026

Conditional Tropical Cyclogenesis Rates via Rare-Event Sampling in a Neural Weather Emulator

We couple Forward Flux Sampling (FFS), a non-equilibrium rare-event technique from statistical mechanics, to a neural weather emulator (SDL-WXFormer, 1° grid spacing) to estimate conditional tropical cyclogenesis rates, or how often a tropical cyclone achieves a hurricane-level central pressure, without modifying model dynamics. Tropical cyclogenesis rates vary by orders of magnitude across regimes, yet direct ensemble sampling cannot resolve this variability at operationally feasible ensemble sizes. FFS decomposes the rare disturbance to mature cyclone intensification path into a flux through an initial interface pressure and a product of conditional crossing probabilities across four intermediate interface pressures. We use the 1° emulator because FFS requires O(10^4) model trajectories per initial condition, and because the model's calibrated stochastic layers provide the necessary exploratory spread. Applied to 98 Atlantic basin initial conditions spanning 21 August - 8 October 2022, FFS resolves genesis rates spanning nearly three orders of magnitude, capturing a seasonal cycle qualitatively consistent with observations. A self-consistency check comparing FFS rates to independent direct-sampling rates yields a mean ratio of 1.03 +/- 0.15 across all initial conditions. Computational enhancement factors range from 3X (most active environment) to 140X (most suppressed), with a geometric mean of 14X. Three case studies illustrate the physical diagnostics the method provides: the rate-limiting step is initial tropical organization for the Earl environment, uniformly high crossing probabilities for the Fiona precursor environment, and a compound barrier at the final intensification stages for the Ian environment. More efficient emulators would enable application of FFS to finer resolutions.

physics.ao-ph↗
arXiv2025

Controllable Probabilistic Forecasting with Stochastic Decomposition Layers

AI weather prediction ensembles with latent noise injection and optimized with the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) have produced both accurate and well-calibrated predictions with far less computational cost compared with diffusion-based methods. However, current CRPS ensemble approaches vary in their training strategies and noise injection mechanisms, with most injecting noise globally throughout the network via conditional normalization. This structure increases training expense and limits the physical interpretability of the stochastic perturbations. We introduce Stochastic Decomposition Layers (SDL) for converting deterministic machine learning weather models into probabilistic ensemble systems. Adapted from StyleGAN's hierarchical noise injection, SDL applies learned perturbations at three decoder scales through latent-driven modulation, per-pixel noise, and channel scaling. When applied to WXFormer via transfer learning, SDL requires less than 2\% of the computational cost needed to train the baseline model. Each ensemble member is generated from a compact latent tensor (5 MB), enabling perfect reproducibility and post-inference spread adjustment through latent rescaling. Evaluation on 2022 ERA5 reanalysis shows ensembles with spread-skill ratios approaching unity and rank histograms that progressively flatten toward uniformity through medium-range forecasts, achieving calibration competitive with operational IFS-ENS. Multi-scale experiments reveal hierarchical uncertainty: coarse layers modulate synoptic patterns while fine layers control mesoscale variability. The explicit latent parameterization provides interpretable uncertainty quantification for operational forecasting and climate applications.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2025

Investigating the use of terrain-following coordinates in AI-driven precipitation forecasts

Artificial Intelligence (AI) weather prediction (AIWP) models often produce ``blurry'' precipitation forecasts. This study presents a novel solution to tackle this problem -- integrating terrain-following coordinates into AIWP models. Forecast experiments are conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of terrain-following coordinates using FuXi, an example AIWP model, adapted to 1.0 degree grid spacing data. Verification results show a largely improved estimation of extreme events and precipitation intensity spectra. Terrain-following coordinates are also found to collaborate well with global mass and energy conservation constraints, with a clear reduction of drizzle bias. Case studies reveal that terrain-following coordinates can represent near-surface winds better, which helps AIWP models in learning the relationships between precipitation and other prognostic variables. The result of this study suggests that terrain-following coordinates are worth considering for AIWP models in producing more accurate precipitation forecasts.

physics.ao-ph↗
arXiv2025

Bayesian Deep Learning for Convective Initiation Nowcasting Uncertainty Estimation

This study evaluated the probability and uncertainty forecasts of five recently proposed Bayesian deep learning methods relative to a deterministic residual neural network (ResNet) baseline for 0-1 h convective initiation (CI) nowcasting using GOES-16 satellite infrared observations. Uncertainty was assessed by how well probabilistic forecasts were calibrated and how well uncertainty separated forecasts with large and small errors. Most of the Bayesian deep learning methods produced probabilistic forecasts that outperformed the deterministic ResNet, with one, the initial-weights ensemble + Monte Carlo (MC) dropout, an ensemble of deterministic ResNets with different initial weights to start training and dropout activated during inference, producing the most skillful and well-calibrated forecasts. The initial-weights ensemble + MC dropout benefited from generating multiple solutions that more thoroughly sampled the hypothesis space. The Bayesian ResNet ensemble was the only one that performed worse than the deterministic ResNet at longer lead times, likely due to the challenge of optimizing a larger number of parameters. To address this issue, the Bayesian-MOPED (MOdel Priors with Empirical Bayes using Deep neural network) ResNet ensemble was adopted, and it enhanced forecast skill by constraining the hypothesis search near the deterministic ResNet hypothesis. All Bayesian methods demonstrated well-calibrated uncertainty and effectively separated cases with large and small errors. In case studies, the initial-weights ensemble + MC dropout demonstrated better forecast skill than the Bayesian-MOPED ensemble and the deterministic ResNet on selected CI events in clear-sky regions. However, the initial-weights ensemble + MC dropout exhibited poorer generalization in clear-sky and anvil cloud regions without CI occurrence compared to the deterministic ResNet and Bayesian-MOPED ensemble.

physics.ao-ph↗
arXiv2025

Uncertainty Quantification of Wind Gust Predictions in the Northeast United States: An Evidential Neural Network and Explainable Artificial Intelligence Approach

Machine learning algorithms have shown promise in reducing bias in wind gust predictions, while still underpredicting high gusts. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) supports this issue by identifying when predictions are reliable or need cautious interpretation. Using data from 61 extratropical storms in the Northeastern USA, we introduce evidential neural network (ENN) as a novel approach for UQ in gust predictions, leveraging atmospheric variables from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Explainable AI techniques suggested that key predictive features contributed to higher uncertainty, which correlated strongly with storm intensity and spatial gust gradients. Compared to WRF, ENN demonstrated a 47% reduction in RMSE and allowed the construction of gust prediction intervals without an ensemble, successfully capturing at least 95% of observed gusts at 179 out of 266 stations. From an operational perspective, providing gust forecasts with quantified uncertainty enhances stakeholders' confidence in risk assessment and response planning for extreme gust events.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2025

Reinforcement Learning (RL) Meets Urban Climate Modeling: Investigating the Efficacy and Impacts of RL-Based HVAC Control

Reinforcement learning (RL)-based heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) control has emerged as a promising technology for reducing building energy consumption while maintaining indoor thermal comfort. However, the efficacy of such strategies is influenced by the background climate and their implementation may potentially alter both the indoor climate and local urban climate. This study proposes an integrated framework combining RL with an urban climate model that incorporates a building energy model, aiming to evaluate the efficacy of RL-based HVAC control across different background climates, impacts of RL strategies on indoor climate and local urban climate, and the transferability of RL strategies across cities. Our findings reveal that the reward (defined as a weighted combination of energy consumption and thermal comfort) and the impacts of RL strategies on indoor climate and local urban climate exhibit marked variability across cities with different background climates. The sensitivity of reward weights and the transferability of RL strategies are also strongly influenced by the background climate. Cities in hot climates tend to achieve higher rewards across most reward weight configurations that balance energy consumption and thermal comfort, and those cities with more varying atmospheric temperatures demonstrate greater RL strategy transferability. These findings underscore the importance of thoroughly evaluating RL-based HVAC control strategies in diverse climatic contexts. This study also provides a new insight that city-to-city learning will potentially aid the deployment of RL-based HVAC control.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2025

CAMulator: Fast Emulation of the Community Atmosphere Model

We introduce CAMulator version 1, an auto-regressive machine-learned (ML) emulator of the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6) that simulates the next atmospheric state given the prescribed sea surface temperatures and incoming solar radiation. CAMulator explicitly conserves global dry air mass, moisture, and total atmospheric energy while remaining numerically stable over indefinite climate integrations. It successfully reproduces the annual CAM6 climatology and key modes of climate variability, including the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the Pacific-North American pattern, with slightly muted variability. When forced with sea surface temperature (SST) outside the training distribution, CAMulator exhibits a systematic cold bias in high-latitude regions, particularly in boreal winter, likely due to the absence of interactive land and sea ice. Nonetheless, CAMulator achieves these results with a 350 times speedup over CAM6, making it an efficient alternative for generating large ensembles.

physics.ao-ph↗
arXiv2025

Improving AI weather prediction models using global mass and energy conservation schemes

Artificial Intelligence (AI) weather prediction (AIWP) models are powerful tools for medium-range forecasts but often lack physical consistency, leading to outputs that violate conservation laws. This study introduces a set of novel physics-based schemes designed to enforce the conservation of global dry air mass, moisture budget, and total atmospheric energy in AIWP models. The schemes are highly modular, allowing for seamless integration into a wide range of AI model architectures. Forecast experiments are conducted to demonstrate the benefit of conservation schemes using FuXi, an example AIWP model, modified and adapted for 1.0-degree grid spacing. Verification results show that the conservation schemes can guide the model in producing forecasts that obey conservation laws. The forecast skills of upper-air and surface variables are also improved, with longer forecast lead times receiving larger benefits. Notably, large performance gains are found in the total precipitation forecasts, owing to the reduction of drizzle bias. The proposed conservation schemes establish a foundation for implementing other physics-based schemes in the future. They also provide a new way to integrate atmospheric domain knowledge into the design and refinement of AIWP models.

physics.ao-ph↗
arXiv2024

Evidential Deep Learning: Enhancing Predictive Uncertainty Estimation for Earth System Science Applications

Robust quantification of predictive uncertainty is critical for understanding factors that drive weather and climate outcomes. Ensembles provide predictive uncertainty estimates and can be decomposed physically, but both physics and machine learning ensembles are computationally expensive. Parametric deep learning can estimate uncertainty with one model by predicting the parameters of a probability distribution but do not account for epistemic uncertainty.. Evidential deep learning, a technique that extends parametric deep learning to higher-order distributions, can account for both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty with one model. This study compares the uncertainty derived from evidential neural networks to those obtained from ensembles. Through applications of classification of winter precipitation type and regression of surface layer fluxes, we show evidential deep learning models attaining predictive accuracy rivaling standard methods, while robustly quantifying both sources of uncertainty. We evaluate the uncertainty in terms of how well the predictions are calibrated and how well the uncertainty correlates with prediction error. Analyses of uncertainty in the context of the inputs reveal sensitivities to underlying meteorological processes, facilitating interpretation of the models. The conceptual simplicity, interpretability, and computational efficiency of evidential neural networks make them highly extensible, offering a promising approach for reliable and practical uncertainty quantification in Earth system science modeling. In order to encourage broader adoption of evidential deep learning in Earth System Science, we have developed a new Python package, MILES-GUESS (https://github.com/ai2es/miles-guess), that enables users to train and evaluate both evidential and ensemble deep learning.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2023

Machine Learning and VIIRS Satellite Retrievals for Skillful Fuel Moisture Content Monitoring in Wildfire Management

Monitoring the fuel moisture content (FMC) of vegetation is crucial for managing and mitigating the impact of wildland fires. The combination of in situ FMC observations with numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and satellite retrievals has enabled the development of machine learning (ML) models to estimate dead FMC retrievals over the contiguous US (CONUS). In this study, ML models were trained using variables from the National Water Model and the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) NWP models, and static variables characterizing the surface properties, as well as surface reflectances and land surface temperature (LST) retrievals from the VIIRS instrument on board the Suomi-NPP satellite system. Extensive hyper-parameter optimization yielded skillful FMC models compared to a daily climatography RMSE (+44\%) and to an hourly climatography RMSE (+24\%). Furthermore, VIIRS retrievals were important predictors for estimating FMC, contributing significantly as a group due to their high band-correlation. In contrast, individual predictors in the HRRR group had relatively high importance according to the explainability techniques used. When both HRRR and VIIRS retrievals were not used as model inputs, the performance dropped significantly. If VIIRS retrievals were not used, the RMSE performance was worse. This highlights the importance of VIIRS retrievals in modeling FMC, which yielded better models compared to MODIS. Overall, the importance of the VIIRS group of predictors corroborates the dynamic relationship between the 10-h fuel and the atmosphere and soil moisture. These findings emphasize the significance of selecting appropriate data sources for predicting FMC with ML models, with VIIRS retrievals and selected HRRR variables being critical components in producing skillful FMC estimates.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2023

Mimicking non-ideal instrument behavior for hologram processing using neural style translation

Holographic cloud probes provide unprecedented information on cloud particle density, size and position. Each laser shot captures particles within a large volume, where images can be computationally refocused to determine particle size and shape. However, processing these holograms, either with standard methods or with machine learning (ML) models, requires considerable computational resources, time and occasional human intervention. ML models are trained on simulated holograms obtained from the physical model of the probe since real holograms have no absolute truth labels. Using another processing method to produce labels would be subject to errors that the ML model would subsequently inherit. Models perform well on real holograms only when image corruption is performed on the simulated images during training, thereby mimicking non-ideal conditions in the actual probe (Schreck et. al, 2022). Optimizing image corruption requires a cumbersome manual labeling effort. Here we demonstrate the application of the neural style translation approach (Gatys et. al, 2016) to the simulated holograms. With a pre-trained convolutional neural network (VGG-19), the simulated holograms are ``stylized'' to resemble the real ones obtained from the probe, while at the same time preserving the simulated image ``content'' (e.g. the particle locations and sizes). Two image similarity metrics concur that the stylized images are more like real holograms than the synthetic ones. With an ML model trained to predict particle locations and shapes on the stylized data sets, we observed comparable performance on both simulated and real holograms, obviating the need to perform manual labeling. The described approach is not specific to hologram images and could be applied in other domains for capturing noise and imperfections in observational instruments to make simulated data more like real world observations.

physics.ins-det↗
arXiv2022

Stochastic Kinetic Study of Protein Aggregation and Molecular Crowding Effects of Ab40 and Ab42

Two isoforms of beta amyloid peptides, Ab40 and Ab42, differ from each other only in the last two amino acids, IA, at the end of Ab42. They, however, differ significantly in their ability in inducing Alzheimer's disease (AD). The rate curves of fibril growth of Ab40 and Ab42 and the effects of molecular crowding have been measured in in vitro experiments. These experimental curves, on the other hand, have been fitted in terms of rate constants for elementary reaction steps using rate equation approaches. Several sets of such rate parameters have been reported in the literature. Employing a recently developed stochastic kinetic method, implemented in a browser-based simulator, popsim, we study to reveal the differences in the kinetic behaviors implied by these sets of rate parameters. In particular, the stochastic method is used to distinguish the kinetic behaviors between Ab40 and Ab42 isoforms. As a result, we make general comments on the usefulness of these sets of rate parameters.

physics.bio-ph↗
arXiv2022

Neural network processing of holographic images

HOLODEC, an airborne cloud particle imager, captures holographic images of a fixed volume of cloud to characterize the types and sizes of cloud particles, such as water droplets and ice crystals. Cloud particle properties include position, diameter, and shape. We present a hologram processing algorithm, HolodecML, that utilizes a neural segmentation model, GPUs, and computational parallelization. HolodecML is trained using synthetically generated holograms based on a model of the instrument, and predicts masks around particles found within reconstructed images. From these masks, the position and size of the detected particles can be characterized in three dimensions. In order to successfully process real holograms, we find we must apply a series of image corrupting transformations and noise to the synthetic images used in training. In this evaluation, HolodecML had comparable position and size estimation performance to the standard processing method, but improved particle detection by nearly 20\% on several thousand manually labeled HOLODEC images. However, the improvement only occurred when image corruption was performed on the simulated images during training, thereby mimicking non-ideal conditions in the actual probe. The trained model also learned to differentiate artifacts and other impurities in the HOLODEC images from the particles, even though no such objects were present in the training data set, while the standard processing method struggled to separate particles from artifacts. The novelty of the training approach, which leveraged noise as a means for parameterizing non-ideal aspects of the HOLODEC detector, could be applied in other domains where the theoretical model is incapable of fully describing the real-world operation of the instrument and accurate truth data required for supervised learning cannot be obtained from real-world observations.

eess.IV↗
arXiv2021

Free-energy landscapes of DNA and its assemblies: Perspectives from coarse-grained modelling

This chapter will provide an overview of how characterizing free-energy landscapes can provide insights into the biophysical properties of DNA, as well as into the behaviour of the DNA assemblies used in the field of DNA nanotechnology. The landscapes for these complex systems are accessible through the use of accurate coarse-grained descriptions of DNA. Particular foci will be the landscapes associated with DNA self-assembly and mechanical deformation, where the latter can arise from either externally imposed forces or internal stresses.

cond-mat.soft↗
arXiv2021

Characterizing the free-energy landscapes of DNA origamis

We show how coarse-grained modelling combined with umbrella sampling using distance-based order parameters can be applied to compute the free-energy landscapes associated with mechanical deformations of large DNA nanostructures. We illustrate this approach for the strong bending of DNA nanotubes and the potentially bistable landscape of twisted DNA origami sheets. The homogeneous bending of the DNA nanotubes is well described by the worm-like chain model; for more extreme bending the nanotubes reversibly buckle with the bending deformations localized at one or two "kinks". For a twisted one-layer DNA origami, the twist is coupled to the bending of the sheet giving rise to a free-energy landscape that has two nearly-degenerate minima that have opposite curvatures. By contrast, for a two-layer origami, the increased stiffness with respect to bending leads to a landscape with a single free-energy minimum that has a saddle-like geometry. The ability to compute such landscapes is likely to be particularly useful for DNA mechanotechnology and for understanding stress accumulation during the self-assembly of origamis into higher-order structures.

cond-mat.soft↗
arXiv2019

Learning retrosynthetic planning through self-play

The problem of retrosynthetic planning can be framed as one player game, in which the chemist (or a computer program) works backwards from a molecular target to simpler starting materials though a series of choices regarding which reactions to perform. This game is challenging as the combinatorial space of possible choices is astronomical, and the value of each choice remains uncertain until the synthesis plan is completed and its cost evaluated. Here, we address this problem using deep reinforcement learning to identify policies that make (near) optimal reaction choices during each step of retrosynthetic planning. Using simulated experience or self-play, we train neural networks to estimate the expected synthesis cost or value of any given molecule based on a representation of its molecular structure. We show that learned policies based on this value network outperform heuristic approaches in synthesizing unfamiliar molecules from available starting materials using the fewest number of reactions. We discuss how the learned policies described here can be incorporated into existing synthesis planning tools and how they can be adapted to changes in the synthesis cost objective or material availability.

cs.LG↗