arXiv subjects

John Wamburu

Publications and source records attributed to John Wamburu.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Planetary Prediction Engine: Autonomous Geospatial Prediction via Intelligent Data Selection and Foundation Model Embeddings

Addressing critical global challenges, from food security and disaster risk to disease outbreaks and socio-economic vulnerability, demands high-fidelity geospatial modeling. However, building predictive planetary models remains bottlenecked by a fragmented data ecosystem, requiring manual data retrieval, multimodal data curation and fusion along with iterative model selection. We present the Planetary Prediction Engine (PPE), an autonomous AI system that executes this end-to-end workflow directly from natural-language queries. PPE synthesizes multimodal datasets on the fly, retrieving spatiotemporally relevant covariates across open-web and Earth observation platforms (Data Commons, Google Earth Engine) and fusing them with geospatial foundation model embeddings (PDFM, AlphaEarth). Simultaneously, it searches over task-tailored model architecture families with automated overfitting guards. Across diverse tasks, geographies, and scientific domains, PPE consistently outperforms state-of-the-art or manually tuned expert baselines. For US spatial regression, PPE improves mean $R^2$ across 21 CDC health indicators (76.8% vs. 60.0%), FEMA national risk indices (64.9% vs. 60.0%), and the Social Vulnerability Index (66.2% vs. 58.6%). For spatial downscaling in data-scarce settings, PPE integrates localized proxies to double baseline accuracy in Nigerian food security indicators ($R^2$ of 66.1% vs. 31.5%). For epidemiological nowcasting of the 2026 DRC Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak, PPE achieves a Recall@10 of 83.3% (identifying 15 of 18 newly invaded health zones across five weekly forecasts), a +10.3 percentage-point improvement over the public state-of-the-art modeling (~73%). By combining autonomous multimodal planetary data discovery with targeted model optimization, PPE lowers the technical barrier to planetary-scale analytics, enabling rapid, customized, expert-level deployment.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2023

Weakly Supervised Detection of Hallucinations in LLM Activations

We propose an auditing method to identify whether a large language model (LLM) encodes patterns such as hallucinations in its internal states, which may propagate to downstream tasks. We introduce a weakly supervised auditing technique using a subset scanning approach to detect anomalous patterns in LLM activations from pre-trained models. Importantly, our method does not need knowledge of the type of patterns a-priori. Instead, it relies on a reference dataset devoid of anomalies during testing. Further, our approach enables the identification of pivotal nodes responsible for encoding these patterns, which may offer crucial insights for fine-tuning specific sub-networks for bias mitigation. We introduce two new scanning methods to handle LLM activations for anomalous sentences that may deviate from the expected distribution in either direction. Our results confirm prior findings of BERT's limited internal capacity for encoding hallucinations, while OPT appears capable of encoding hallucination information internally. Importantly, our scanning approach, without prior exposure to false statements, performs comparably to a fully supervised out-of-distribution classifier.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Equitable Network-Aware Decarbonization of Residential Heating at City Scale

Residential heating, primarily powered by natural gas, accounts for a significant portion of residential sector energy use and carbon emissions in many parts of the world. Hence, there is a push towards decarbonizing residential heating by transitioning to energy-efficient heat pumps powered by an increasingly greener and less carbon-intensive electric grid. However, such a transition will add additional load to the electric grid triggering infrastructure upgrades, and subsequently erode the customer base using the gas distribution network. Utilities want to guide these transition efforts to ensure a phased decommissioning of the gas network and deferred electric grid infrastructure upgrades while achieving carbon reduction goals. To facilitate such a transition, we present a network-aware optimization framework for decarbonizing residential heating at city scale with an objective to maximize carbon reduction under budgetary constraints. Our approach operates on a graph representation of the gas network topology to compute the cost of transitioning and select neighborhoods for transition. We further extend our approach to explicitly incorporate equity and ensure an equitable distribution of benefits across different socioeconomic groups. We apply our framework to a city in the New England region of the U.S., using real-world gas usage, electric usage, and grid infrastructure data. We show that our network-aware strategy achieves 55% higher carbon reductions than prior network-oblivious work under the same budget. Our equity-aware strategy achieves an equitable outcome while preserving the carbon reduction benefits of the network-aware strategy.

cs.CY↗