arXiv subjects

Jon A. Linker

Publications and source records attributed to Jon A. Linker.

36 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2019

Coupled MHD-Focused Transport Simulations for Modeling Solar Particle Events

We describe the initial version of the Solar Particle Event (SPE) Threat Assessment Tool or STAT. STAT relies on elements of Corona-Heliosphere (CORHEL) and the Earth-Moon-Mars Radiation Environment Module (EMMREM), and allows users to investigate coronal mass ejection (CME) driven SPEs using coupled magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) and focused transport solutions. At the present time STAT focuses on modeling solar energetic particle (SEP) acceleration in and transport from the low corona, where the highest energy SEP events are generated. We illustrate STAT's capabilities with a model of the July 14, 2000 "Bastille Day" event, including innovative diagnostics for understanding the three-dimensional distribution of particle fluxes and their relation to the structure of the underlying CME driver. A preliminary comparison with NOAA GOES measurements is shown.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2019

Ion Charge States in a Time-Dependent Wave-Turbulence-Driven Model of the Solar Wind

Ion fractional charge states, measured in situ in the heliosphere, depend on the properties of the plasma in the inner corona. As the ions travel outward in the solar wind and the electron density drops, the charge states remain essentially unaltered or "frozen in". Thus they can provide a powerful constraint on heating models of the corona and acceleration of the solar wind. We have implemented non-equilibrium ionization calculations into a 1D wave-turbulence-driven (WTD) hydrodynamic solar wind model and compared modeled charge states with the Ulysses 1994-5 in situ measurements. We have found that modeled charge state ratios of $C^{6+}/C^{5+}$ and $O^{7+}/O^{6+}$, among others, were too low compared with Ulysses measurements. However, a heuristic reduction of the plasma flow speed has been able to bring the modeled results in line with observations, though other ideas have been proposed to address this discrepancy. We discuss implications of our results and the prospect of including ion charge state calculations into our 3D MHD model of the inner heliosphere.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2018

Forecasting the Arrival Time of Coronal Mass Ejections: Analysis of the CCMC CME Scoreboard

Accurate forecasting of the properties of coronal mass ejections as they approach Earth is now recognized as an important strategic objective for both NOAA and NASA. The time of arrival of such events is a key parameter, one that had been anticipated to be relatively straightforward to constrain. In this study, we analyze forecasts submitted to the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center over the last six years to answer the following questions: (1) How well do these models forecast the arrival time of CME-driven shocks? (2) What are the uncertainties associated with these forecasts? (3) Which model(s) perform best? (4) Have the models become more accurate during the past six years? We analyze all forecasts made by 32 models from 2013 through mid 2018, and additionally focus on 28 events all of which were forecasted by six models. We find that the models are generally able to predict CME-shock arrival times -- in an average sense -- to within 10 hours, but with standard deviations often exceeding 20 hours. The best performers, on the other hand, maintained a mean error (bias) of -1 hour, a mean absolute error of 13 hours, and a precision (s.d.) of 15 hours. Finally, there is no evidence that the forecasts have become more accurate during this interval. We discuss the intrinsic simplifications of the various models analyzed, the limitations of this investigation, and suggest possible paths to improve these forecasts in the future.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2018

The State of the Solar Wind, Magnetosphere, and Ionosphere During the Maunder Minimum

Both direct observations and reconstructions from various datasets, suggest that conditions were radically different during the Maunder Minimum (MM) than during the space era. Using an MHD model, we develop a set of feasible solutions to infer the properties of the solar wind during this interval. Additionally, we use these results to drive a global magnetospheric model. Finally, using the 2008/2009 solar minimum as an upper limit for MM conditions, we use results from the International Reference Ionosphere (ILI) model to speculate on the state of the ionosphere. The results describe interplanetary, magnetospheric, and ionospheric conditions that were substantially different than today. For example: (1) the solar wind density and magnetic field strength were an order of magnitude lower; (2) the Earth's magnetopause and shock standoff distances were a factor of two larger; and (3) the maximum electron density in the ionosphere was substantially lower.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2018

Sun-to-Earth MHD Simulation of the 14 July 2000 "Bastille Day" Eruption

Solar eruptions are the main driver of space-weather disturbances at the Earth. Extreme events are of particular interest, not only because of the scientific challenges they pose, but also because of their possible societal consequences. Here we present a magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation of the 14 July 2000 Bastille Day eruption, which produced a very strong geomagnetic storm. After constructing a thermodynamic MHD model of the corona and solar wind, we insert a magnetically stable flux rope along the polarity inversion line of the eruption's source region and initiate the eruption by boundary flows. More than 10^33 ergs of magnetic energy are released in the eruption within a few minutes, driving a flare, an EUV wave, and a coronal mass ejection (CME) that travels in the outer corona at about 1500 km/s, close to the observed speed. We then propagate the CME to Earth, using a heliospheric MHD code. Our simulation thus provides the opportunity to test how well in situ observations of extreme events are matched if the eruption is initiated from a stable magnetic-equilibrium state. We find that the flux-rope center is very similar in character to the observed magnetic cloud, but arrives about 8.5 hours later and about 15 degrees too far to the North, with field strengths that are too weak by a factor of about 1.6. The front of the flux rope is highly distorted, exhibiting localized magnetic-field concentrations as it passes 1 AU. We discuss these properties with regard to the development of space-weather predictions based on MHD simulations of solar eruptions.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2017

From MPI to MPI+OpenACC: Conversion of a legacy FORTRAN PCG solver for the spherical Laplace equation

A real-world example of adding OpenACC to a legacy MPI FORTRAN Preconditioned Conjugate Gradient code is described, and timing results for multi-node multi-GPU runs are shown. The code is used to obtain three-dimensional spherical solutions to the Laplace equation. Its application is finding potential field solutions of the solar corona, a useful tool in space weather modeling. We highlight key tips, strategies, and challenges faced when adding OpenACC. Performance results are shown for running the code with MPI-only on multiple CPUs, and with MPI+OpenACC on multiple GPUs and CPUs.

cs.MS↗

arXiv2017

Regularized Biot-Savart Laws for Modeling Magnetic Flux Ropes

Many existing models assume that magnetic flux ropes play a key role in solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). It is therefore important to develop efficient methods for constructing flux-rope configurations constrained by observed magnetic data and the morphology of the pre-eruptive source region. For this purpose, we have derived and implemented a compact analytical form that represents the magnetic field of a thin flux rope with an axis of arbitrary shape and circular cross-sections. This form implies that the flux rope carries axial current $I$ and axial flux $F$, so that the respective magnetic field is the curl of the sum of axial and azimuthal vector potentials proportional to $I$ and $F$, respectively. We expressed the vector potentials in terms of modified Biot-Savart laws whose kernels are regularized at the axis in such a way that, when the axis is straight, these laws define a cylindrical force-free flux rope with a parabolic profile for the axial current density. For the cases we have studied so far, we determined the shape of the rope axis by following the polarity inversion line of the eruptions' source region, using observed magnetograms. The height variation along the axis and other flux-rope parameters are estimated by means of potential field extrapolations. Using this heuristic approach, we were able to construct pre-eruption configurations for the 2009 February 13 and 2011 October 1 CME events. These applications demonstrate the flexibility and efficiency of our new method for energizing pre-eruptive configurations in simulations of CMEs.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2017

2010 August 1-2 sympathetic eruptions: II. Magnetic topology of the MHD background field

Using a potential field source surface (PFSS) model, we recently analyzed the global topology of the background coronal magnetic field for a sequence of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that occurred on 2010 August 1-2. Here we repeat this analysis for the background field reproduced by a magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model that incorporates plasma thermodynamics. As for the PFSS model, we find that all three CME source regions contain a coronal hole that is separated from neighboring coronal holes by topologically very similar pseudo-streamer structures. However, the two models yield very different results for the size, shape, and flux of the coronal holes. We find that the helmet-streamer cusp line, which corresponds to a source-surface null line in the PFSS model, is structurally unstable and does not form in the MHD model. Our analysis indicates that generally, in MHD configurations, this line rather consists of a multiple-null separator passing along the edge of disconnected flux regions. Some of these regions are transient and may be the origin of so-called streamer blobs. We show that the core topological structure of such blobs is a three-dimensional "plasmoid", consisting of two conjoined flux ropes of opposite handedness, which connect at a spiral null point of the magnetic field. Our analysis reveals that such plasmoids appear also in pseudo-streamers on much smaller scales. These new insights into the coronal magnetic topology provide some intriguing implications for solar energetic particle events and for the properties of the slow solar wind.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2016

Closed-Field Coronal Heating Driven by Wave Turbulence

To simulate the energy balance of coronal plasmas on macroscopic scales, we often require the specification of the coronal heating mechanism in some functional form. To go beyond empirical formulations and to build a more physically motivated heating function, we investigate the wave-turbulence-driven (WTD) phenomenology for the heating of closed coronal loops. Our implementation is designed to capture the large-scale propagation, reflection, and dissipation of wave turbulence along a loop. The parameter space of this model is explored by solving the coupled WTD and hydrodynamic evolution in 1D for an idealized loop. The relevance to a range of solar conditions is also established by computing solutions for over one hundred loops extracted from a realistic 3D coronal field. Due to the implicit dependence of the WTD heating model on loop geometry and plasma properties along the loop and at the footpoints, we find that this model can significantly reduce the number of free parameters when compared to traditional empirical heating models, and still robustly describe a broad range of quiet-sun and active region conditions. The importance of the self-reflection term in producing relatively short heating scale heights and thermal nonequilibrium cycles is also discussed.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2016

Advancing parabolic operators in thermodynamic MHD models: Explicit super time-stepping versus implicit schemes with Krylov solvers

We explore the performance and advantages/disadvantages of using unconditionally stable explicit super time-stepping (STS) algorithms versus implicit schemes with Krylov solvers for integrating parabolic operators in thermodynamic MHD models of the solar corona. Specifically, we compare the second-order Runge-Kutta Legendre (RKL2) STS method with the implicit backward Euler scheme computed using the preconditioned conjugate gradient (PCG) solver with both a point-Jacobi and a non-overlapping domain decomposition ILU0 preconditioner. The algorithms are used to integrate anisotropic Spitzer thermal conduction and artificial kinematic viscosity at time-steps much larger than classic explicit stability criteria allow. A key component of the comparison is the use of an established MHD model (MAS) to compute a real-world simulation on a large HPC cluster. Special attention is placed on the parallel scaling of the algorithms. It is shown that, for a specific problem and model, the RKL2 method is comparable or surpasses the implicit method with PCG solvers in performance and scaling, but suffers from some accuracy limitations. These limitations, and the applicability of RKL methods are briefly discussed.

cs.CE↗

arXiv2015

Can Large Time Delays Observed in Light Curves of Coronal Loops be Explained by Impulsive Heating?

The light curves of solar coronal loops often peak first in channels associated with higher temperatures and then in those associated with lower. The time delays between the different narrowband EUV channels have been measured for many individual loops and recently for every pixel of an active region observation. Time delays between channels for an active region exhibit a wide range of values, with maxima $>$ 5,000\,s. These large time delays make up 3-26\% (depending on the channel pair) of the pixels where a significant, positive time delay is measured. It has been suggested that time delays can be explained by impulsive heating. In this paper, we investigate whether the largest observed time delays can be explained by this hypothesis by simulating a series of coronal loops with different heating rates, loop lengths, abundances, and geometries to determine the range of expected time delays between a set of four EUV channels. We find that impulsive heating cannot address the largest time delays observed in two of the channel pairs and that the majority of the large time delays can only be explained by long, expanding loops with photospheric abundances. Additional observations may rule out these simulations as an explanation for the long time delays. We suggest that either the time delays found in this manner may not be representative of real loop evolution, or that the impulsive heating and cooling scenario may be too simple to explain the observations and other heating scenarios must be explored.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2015

Understanding space weather to shield society: A global road map for 2015-2025 commissioned by COSPAR and ILWS

There is a growing appreciation that the environmental conditions that we call space weather impact the technological infrastructure that powers the coupled economies around the world. With that comes the need to better shield society against space weather by improving forecasts, environmental specifications, and infrastructure design. [...] advanced understanding of space weather requires a coordinated international approach to effectively provide awareness of the processes within the Sun-Earth system through observation-driven models. This roadmap prioritizes the scientific focus areas and research infrastructure that are needed to significantly advance our understanding of space weather of all intensities and of its implications for society. Advancement of the existing system observatory through the addition of small to moderate state-of-the-art capabilities designed to fill observational gaps will enable significant advances. Such a strategy requires urgent action: key instrumentation needs to be sustained, and action needs to be taken before core capabilities are lost in the aging ensemble. We recommend advances through priority focus (1) on observation-based modeling throughout the Sun-Earth system, (2) on forecasts more than 12 hrs ahead of the magnetic structure of incoming coronal mass ejections, (3) on understanding the geospace response to variable solar-wind stresses that lead to intense geomagnetically-induced currents and ionospheric and radiation storms, and (4) on developing a comprehensive specification of space climate, including the characterization of extreme space storms to guide resilient and robust engineering of technological infrastructures. The roadmap clusters its implementation recommendations by formulating three action pathways, and outlines needed instrumentation and research programs and infrastructure for each of these. [...]

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2014

Application of a Solar Wind Model Driven by Turbulence Dissipation to a 2D Magnetic Field Configuration

Although it is widely accepted that photospheric motions provide the energy source and that the magnetic field must play a key role in the process, the detailed mechanisms responsible for heating the Sun's corona and accelerating the solar wind are still not fully understood. Cranmer et al. (2007) developed a sophisticated, 1D, time-steady model of the solar wind with turbulence dissipation. By varying the coronal magnetic field, they obtain, for a single choice of wave properties, a realistic range of slow and fast wind conditions with a sharp latitudinal transition between the two streams. Using a 1D, time-dependent model of the solar wind of Lionello et al. (2014), which incorporates turbulent dissipation of Alfvén waves to provide heating and acceleration of the plasma, we have explored a similar configuration, obtaining qualitatively equivalent results. However, our calculations suggest that the rapid transition between slow and fast wind suggested by this 1D model may be disrupted in multidimensional MHD simulations by the requirement of transverse force balance.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2014

Slow Rise and Partial Eruption of a Double-Decker Filament. II. Modeling by a Double Flux Rope Equilibrium

Force-free equilibria containing two vertically arranged magnetic flux ropes of like chirality and current direction are considered as a model for split filaments/prominences and filament-sigmoid systems. Such equilibria are constructed analytically through an extension of the methods developed in Titov & Démoulin (1999) and numerically through an evolutionary sequence including shear flows, flux emergence, and flux cancellation in the photospheric boundary. It is demonstrated that the analytical equilibria are stable if an external toroidal (shear) field component exceeding a threshold value is included. If this component decreases sufficiently, then both flux ropes turn unstable for conditions typical of solar active regions, with the lower rope typically being unstable first. Either both flux ropes erupt upward, or only the upper rope erupts while the lower rope reconnects with the ambient flux low in the corona and is destroyed. However, for shear field strengths staying somewhat above the threshold value, the configuration also admits evolutions which lead to partial eruptions with only the upper flux rope becoming unstable and the lower one remaining in place. This can be triggered by a transfer of flux and current from the lower to the upper rope, as suggested by the observations of a split filament in Paper~I (Liu et al. 2012). It can also result from tether-cutting reconnection with the ambient flux at the X-type structure between the flux ropes, which similarly influences their stability properties in opposite ways. This is demonstrated for the numerically constructed equilibrium.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2014

Validating a Time-Dependent Wave-Turbulence-Driven Model of the Solar Wind

Although the mechanisms responsible for heating the Sun's corona and accelerating the solar wind are still being actively investigated, it is largely accepted that photospheric motions provide the energy source and that the magnetic field must play a key role in the process. \citet{2010ApJ...708L.116V} presented a model for heating and accelerating the solar wind based on the turbulent dissipation of Alfvén waves. We first use a time-dependent model of the solar wind to reproduce one of \citeauthor{2010ApJ...708L.116V}'s solutions; then we extend its application to the case when the energy equation includes thermal conduction and radiation losses, and the upper chromosphere is part of the computational domain. Using this model, we explore parameter space and describe the characteristics of a fast-solar-wind solution. We discuss how this formulation may be applied to a 3D MHD model of the coron a and solar wind \citep{2009ApJ...690..902L}.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2012

Slow Rise and Partial Eruption of a Double-Decker Filament. I Observations and Interpretation

We study an active-region dextral filament which was composed of two branches separated in height by about 13 Mm. This "double-decker" configuration sustained for days before the upper branch erupted with a GOES-class M1.0 flare on 2010 August 7. Analyzing this evolution, we obtain the following main results. 1) During hours before the eruption, filament threads within the lower branch were observed to intermittently brighten up, lift upward, and then merge with the upper branch. The merging process contributed magnetic flux and current to the upper branch, resulting in its quasi-static ascent. 2) This transfer might serve as the key mechanism for the upper branch to lose equilibrium by reaching the limiting flux that can be stably held down by the overlying field or by reaching the threshold of the torus instability. 3) The erupting branch first straightened from a reverse S shape that followed the polarity inversion line and then writhed into a forward S shape. This shows a transfer of left-handed helicity in a sequence of writhe-twist-writhe. The fact that the initial writhe is converted into the twist of the flux rope excludes the helical kink instability as the trigger process of the eruption, but supports the occurrence of the instability in the main phase, which is indeed indicated by the very strong writhing motion. 4) A hard X-ray sigmoid, likely of coronal origin, formed in the gap between the two original filament branches in the impulsive phase of the associated flare. This supports a model of transient sigmoids forming in the vertical flare current sheet. 5) Left-handed magnetic helicity is inferred for both branches of the dextral filament. 6) Two types of force-free magnetic configurations are compatible with the data, a double flux rope equilibrium and a single flux rope situated above a loop arcade.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2011

Characterization of the slow wind in the outer corona

The study concerns the streamer belt observed at high spectral resolution during the minimum of solar cycle 22 with the Ultraviolet Coronagraph Spectrometer (UVCS) onboard SOHO. On the basis of a spectroscopic analysis of the O VI doublet, the solar wind plasma parameters are inferred in the extended corona. The analysis accounts for the coronal magnetic topology, extrapolated through a 3D magneto-hydrodynamic model, in order to define the streamer boundary and to analyse the edges of coronal holes. The results of the analysis allow an accurate identification of the source regions of the slow coronal wind that are confirmed to be along the streamer boundary in the open magnetic field region.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2010

Coronal mass ejection initiation: On the nature of the Flux Cancellation Model

We consider a three-dimensional bipolar force-free magnetic field with non zero magnetic helicity, occupying a half-space, and study the problem of its evolution driven by an imposed photospheric flux decrease. For this specific setting of the Flux Cancellation Model describing coronal mass ejections occuring in active regions, we address the issues of the physical meaning of flux decrease, of the influence on field evolution of the size of the domain over which this decrease is imposed, and of the existence of an energetic criterion characterizing the possible onset of disruption of the configuration. We show that: (1) The imposed flux disappearance can be interpreted in terms of transport of positive and negative fluxes towards the inversion line, where they get annihilated. (2) For the particular case actually computed, in which the initial state is quite sheared, the formation of a twisted flux rope and the subsequent global disruption of the configuration are obtained when the flux has decreased by only a modest amount over a limited part of the whole active region. (3) The disruption is produced when the magnetic energy becomes of the order of the decreasing energy of a semi-open field, and then before reaching the energy of the associated fully open field. This suggests that the mechanism leading to the disruption is nonequilibrium as in the case where flux is imposed to decrease over the whole region.

astro-ph.SR↗