arXiv subjects

Jon Hulberg

Publications and source records attributed to Jon Hulberg.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

You Shall Not Pass (Without Modeling): High-Resolution Analysis of KMT-2019-BLG-0253 using MORIA

We present the Microlensing Object high-Resolution Imaging Analysis pipeline, or MORIA. This is an automated procedure to reduce high-resolution HST images of microlensing targets, build empirical point-spread function models from the data, and perform simultaneous multi-star PSF fitting to blended sources, lenses, and neighbor stars. We have developed and tested this pipeline using HST observations of the microlensing event KMT-2019-BLG-0253, where we determine a host mass of $M_{host} = 0.65 \pm 0.04M_{\odot}$. We have reduced the number of possible solutions for this target by a factor of two, with the remaining solution subject to the well-known close-wide degeneracy. We determine a planet mass of $m_{p} = 7.18 \pm 0.40 M_{\oplus}$ (close) or $m_{p} = 9.48 \pm 1.13 M_{\oplus}$ (wide), and distance to the lens system of $D_L= 2.64 \pm 0.22$ kpc. This work demonstrates the importance of using an automated high resolution imaging tool to inform light curve modeling for microlensing planets found during the upcoming Nancy Grace Roman Galactic Bulge Time Domain Survey (GBTDS).

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2025

Predictions of the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope Galactic Exoplanet Survey. V. Detection Rates of Multiplanetary Systems in High Magnification Microlensing Events

The Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope will expand the reach of gravitational microlensing surveys by increasing the number of events monitored and the precision of their light curves. We investigate Roman's ability to detect triple-lens microlensing systems, cases where a foreground star with two bound exoplanets produces detectable anomalies in a microlensing event, using its planned high-cadence observations toward the Galactic bulge. We simulate a large set of high-magnification microlensing light curves based on Roman's expected survey characteristics. A detection criterion, based on a required $\chi^2$ improvement for a two-planet model, is applied to determine whether the second planet can be reliably distinguished from a single-planet (binary-lens) model. Our simulations show that the majority of two-planet microlensing events would be detectable with Roman. Events in which both planets are relatively massive (planet-star mass ratios of order $10^{-3}$), or in which the more massive planet occupies a favorable resonant configuration, produce strong central perturbations, resulting in detection efficiencies of roughly 90\%. By contrast, systems with only low-mass planets ($q \sim 10^{-4}$) or with less favorable alignments generate much weaker signals, which often fall below the detection threshold. In general, the planetary mass ratios and the resulting caustic geometry (e.g., central caustic size in resonant versus wide/close orbits) are the dominant factors governing detectability. Taking into account the expected frequency of planetary systems and the fraction of high-magnification events, we estimate that Roman will detect a high-magnification triple-lens event in approximately 4.5\% of multi-planet microlensing events, corresponding to about 64 events over the course of the full survey.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2025

Predictions of the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope Galactic Exoplanet Survey. IV. Lens Mass and Distance Measurements

As part of the Galactic Bulge Time Domain Survey (GBTDS), the Nancy Grace Roman Galactic Exoplanet Survey (RGES) will use microlensing to discover cold outer planets and free-floating planets unbound to stars. NASA has established several science requirements for the GBTDS to ensure RGES success. A key advantage of RGES is Roman's high angular resolution, which will allow detection of flux from many host stars. One requirement specifies that Roman must measure the masses and distances of 40% of detected planet hosts with 20% precision or better. To test this, we simulated microlensing events toward the GBTDS fields and used Fisher matrix analysis to estimate light curve parameter uncertainties. Combining these with Roman imaging observables (lens flux, relative lens-source proper motion), we estimated the achievable precision of lens mass and distance measurements. Using pyLIMASS, a publicly available code for estimating lens properties, we applied this analysis to 3,000 simulated events. Assuming the Cassan et al. (2012) exoplanet mass function, we find that >40% of host stars meet the required 20% precision threshold, confirming that the GBTDS can satisfy the mission requirement. We validated our approach by comparing our inferred lens masses and distances to empirical measurements from detailed image-constrained light curve modeling of historical microlensing events with Hubble and Keck follow-up imaging. Our results agree within roughly 1 sigma, demonstrating that both approaches yield consistent and reliable mass and distance estimates, and confirming the robustness of our simulations for Roman-era microlensing science.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2025

Technique-agnostic exoplanet demography for the Roman era -- I. Testing a demography retrieval framework using simulated Kepler-like transit datasets

The Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope (Roman) will unveil for the first time the full architecture of planetary systems across Galactic distances through the discovery of up to 200,000 cool and hot exoplanets using microlensing and transit detection methods. Roman's huge exoplanet haul, and Galactic reach, will require new methods to leverage the full exoplanet demographic content of the combined microlensing and transit samples, given the different sensitivity bias of the techniques to planet and host properties and Galactic location. We present a framework for technique-agnostic exoplanet demography (TAED) that can allow large, multi-technique exoplanet samples distributed over Galactic distance scales to be combined for demographic studies. Our TAED forward modelling and retrieval framework uses parameterised model exoplanet demographic distributions to embed planetary systems within a stellar population synthesis model of the Galaxy, enabling internally consistent forecasts to be made for all detection methods that are based on spatio-kinematic system properties. In this paper, as a first test of the TAED framework, we apply it to simulated transit datasets based on the Kepler Data Release 25 to assess parameter recovery accuracy and method scalability for a single large homogeneous dataset. We find that optimisation using differential evolution provides a computationally scalable framework that gives a good balance between computational efficiency and accuracy of parameter recovery.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2025

NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts Phase I Final Report -- A Lunar Long-Baseline UV/Optical Imaging Interferometer: Artemis-enabled Stellar Imager (AeSI)

This report presents the findings of a NIAC Phase I feasibility study for the Artemis-enabled Stellar Imager (AeSI), a proposed high-resolution, UV/Optical interferometer designed for deployment on the lunar surface. Its primary science goal is to image the surfaces and interiors of stars with unprecedented detail, revealing new details about their magnetic processes and dynamic evolution and enabling the creation of a truly predictive solar/stellar dynamo model. This capability will transform our understanding of stellar physics and has broad applicability across astrophysics, from resolving the cores of Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN) to studying supernovae, planetary nebulae, and the late stages of stellar evolution. By leveraging the stable vacuum environment of the Moon and the infrastructure being established for the Artemis Program, AeSI presents a compelling case for a lunar-based interferometer. In this study, the AeSI Team, working with the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center's Integrated Design Center (IDC), has firmly established the feasibility of building and operating a reconfigurable, dispersed aperture telescope (i.e., an interferometer) on the lunar surface. The collaboration produced a credible Baseline design featuring 15 primary mirrors arranged in an elliptical array with a 1 km major axis, with the potential to expand to 30 mirrors and larger array sizes through staged deployments. Additionally, this study identified numerous opportunities for optimization and the necessary trade studies to refine the design further. These will be pursued in follow-up investigations, such as a NIAC Phase II study, to advance the concept toward implementation.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2025

Observations and Radiative Transfer Simulations of the Carbon-rich AGB star V Oph with VLTI/MATISSE

Carbon-rich Asymptotic Giant Branch (AGB) stars are among the most important contributors of enriched materials to the interstellar medium due to their strong stellar winds. To fully characterize mass loss on the AGB, it is necessary to determine the distributions of dust and gas around the stars, where the dust begins to condense from the gas, and how this extended atmospheric structure evolves over the pulsational period of the star. We present an analysis of L-band (2.8-4.2 $\mu$m) interferometric observations of the carbon-rich AGB star V Oph made with the MATISSE instrument at the VLTI at the maximum and minimum of the star's visual light curve. Using the radiative transfer software RADMC-3D, we model the circumstellar dust shell, and find stellar radii of 395 and 495 $R_{\odot}$ at the two phases, and dust radii of 790 and 742.5 $R_{\odot}$ at the two epochs, respectively. By adding C$_2$H$_2$ and HCN gas to the RADMC-3D models, we are able to fit the visibility spectra well, with some deviations at the 3.11 $\mu$m feature. Reasons for this deviation and interpretation of the best fitting models are discussed in the text, and we discuss motivations for follow-up imaging observations of V Oph.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2024

A Candidate High-Velocity Exoplanet System in the Galactic Bulge

We present an analysis of adaptive optics (AO) images from the Keck-I telescope of the microlensing event MOA-2011-BLG-262. The original discovery paper by Bennett et al. 2014 reports two distinct possibilities for the lens system; a nearby gas giant lens with an exomoon companion or a very low mass star with a planetary companion in the galactic bulge. The $\sim$10 year baseline between the microlensing event and the Keck follow-up observations allows us to detect the faint candidate lens host (star) at $K = 22.3$ mag and confirm the distant lens system interpretation. The combination of the host star brightness and light curve parameters yields host star and planet masses of $M_{\rm host} = 0.19 \pm 0.03M_{\odot}$ and $m_p = 28.92 \pm 4.75M_{\oplus}$ at a distance of $D_L = 7.49 \pm 0.91\,$kpc. We perform a multi-epoch cross reference to \textit{Gaia} DR3 and measure a transverse velocity for the candidate lens system of $v_L = 541.31 \pm 65.75$ km s$^{-1}$. We conclude this event consists of the highest velocity exoplanet system detected to date, and also the lowest mass microlensing host star with a confirmed mass measurement. The high-velocity nature of the lens system can be definitively confirmed with an additional epoch of high-resolution imaging at any time now. The methods outlined in this work demonstrate that the \textit{Roman} Galactic Exoplanet Survey (RGES) will be able to securely measure low-mass host stars in the bulge.

astro-ph.EP↗