arXiv subjects

Jon M. Jenkins

Publications and source records attributed to Jon M. Jenkins.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

The Orbital Eccentricity--Radius Distribution for Warm, Single Planets in TESS

We characterize the radius-dependent eccentricity distribution of 219 warm (P = 8--50 days) systems with only one transiting planetary candidate identified during Sectors 1-69 of the TESS mission. Using the ``photoeccentric effect'' in a hierarchical Bayesian framework, we first model the population using discrete planetary size bins (sub-Neptunes, sub-Saturns, and Jovians). We then develop a continuous mixture model with weights governed by a logistic sigmoid function of radius. We find that the warm-single population is best described by two components: a dominant low-eccentricity mode ( = 0.039-0.038+0.018) and a secondary dynamically excited mode ( = 0.466-0.068+0.067). The fraction of planets belonging to this high-eccentricity component increases strongly with planet radius, characterized by a transition at a break radius of R_br = 9.2-1.1+1.9 R_e. This trend places warm sub-Saturns predominantly on the same low-eccentricity track as sub-Neptunes. In contrast, warm Jovians (8--16 R_e) are frequently eccentric, with 65-12+13% of the population in the high eccentricity mode. Under the assumption of a two-component model, we see tentative evidence for a bimodal Jovian distribution at ~2.7 sigma. Finally, we identify a non-negligible tail of highly eccentric sub-Neptunes (1--4 R_e), which comprise 16.2-6.4+5.2% of the population, consistent with excitation by non-transiting external companions.

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arXiv2026

ASTEP confirmation of a pair of long-period Jupiter-sized planets with extremely low densities transiting TOI-791

Gas giant planets with periods $20~<~P~<~300~\rm days$ orbiting Sun-like stars are a relatively uncommon outcome of planetary formation, and key questions about the nature and formation of this sub-population remain unanswered. Theoretical models for the location of their formation (in- or ex-situ) and for their subsequent migration predict different outcomes in terms of planet masses and eccentricities, indicating that observations have a key role to play in disentangling their histories. In this work we present the discovery and confirmation of a pair of long-period Jupiter-sized planets transiting an F7 star: TOI-791 b is a $0.993\pm0.033\rm~R_{Jup}$ planet on a $139.29931_{-0.00012}^{+0.00011}~\rm day$ orbit, and TOI-791 c, a $1.155\pm0.040\rm ~R_{Jup}$ planet on a $232.01570_{-0.00071}^{+0.00067}~\rm day$ orbit. The two planets are within 0.07% of a second-order 5:3 period commensurability leading to transit timing variations (TTVs) of up to 50 minutes. We confirm their planetary nature using ground-based photometry, including multiple full detections of the $>11~\rm hr$ transits of both TOI-791 b and c from Antarctica with ASTEP, making these the longest-duration transits ever observed in their entirety from the ground. Our detailed analysis of the TTV signal allows us to measure dynamical masses for both planets, which yield densities of $ρ_{\rm b}=0.038\pm0.008 \rm ~g~cm^{-3}$ and $ρ_{\rm c}=0.047\pm0.006 \rm ~g~cm^{-3}$, indicating that TOI-791~b and c are two of the lowest density giant planets ever detected. While these measurements are robust, further follow-up is needed to fully characterise the TTV signal and the architecture of the system.

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arXiv2026

An Ultra-Short Period Super-Earth and a Sub-Neptune Orbiting the K dwarf TOI-4311

We report the discovery and characterisation of the multi-planetary system around TOI-4311, a K dwarf kinematically between the Galactic thick disk and Hercules stream. TOI-4311 hosts an ultra-short-period super-Earth (P$\sim$0.99 d, $1.376\substack{+0.077\\-0.080}$ R$_\oplus$) and a longer period sub-Neptune (P$\sim$15 d, $2.47\substack{+0.12\\-0.11}$ R$_\oplus$) that was first detected in the TESS photometry. Using follow-up observations with CHEOPS and HARPS, we refine the planetary radius of both planets, derive the mass of planet b ($4.5\substack{+1.5\\-1.4}$ M$_\oplus$) and confirm the planetary nature of planet c. Intriguingly, a third periodic signal is clearly detected in our HARPS RVs that we cannot link to stellar activity. This signal could be attributed to a third planet (P$\sim$38 d, Msin(i)=$26.4\substack{+6.3\\-6.8}$ M$_\oplus$) in the system, however with the current photometric dataset we do not find a transit. Our dynamical analysis highlights that this potential outer planet would remain stable. Using the precise radius and mass for TOI-4311 b we model its interior structure and find that it is very dense given the host star's galactic kinematics and chemistry. Hence this system could challenge current formation theories and provide insights into planet formation across the galaxy.

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arXiv2026

Uncovering the Rapidly Evolving Orbits of the Dynamic TOI-201 System

Studying planetary interactions in exoplanet systems informs theories of planet formation and evolution, providing essential context for understanding our own solar system. We combine spectroscopy, transit photometry, transit timing variations, and astrometry to characterize the TOI-201 system. The co-transiting system consists of a super-Earth, warm Jupiter, and massive companion at 5.8, 53, and 2900 day orbital periods, respectively. We perform dynamical simulations to study the past and future of the system. von-Zeipel-Kozai-Lidov oscillations emerge as the most plausible scenario to explain the outer companion's high orbital eccentricity, with planet-planet scattering a possible but less likely contender. Due to non-zero mutual inclinations between the planets, the system is visibly evolving on very short timescales, with the current co-transiting configuration ending in 200 years.

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arXiv2026

A Warm Massive Pair of Planets around TOI-1232 Revealed with Transit-timing Variations and Doppler Spectroscopy

TOI-1232 is a G-dwarf star with a mass of $1.06_{-0.06}^{+0.07} M_\odot$, a radius of $1.07\pm 0.05 R_\odot$, and slightly higher metallicity than solar of Fe/H = $0.18 \pm 0.05$. The star hosts a transiting warm Jovian-mass planet, TOI-1232 b, with an orbital period of $P_{b} = 14.256_{-0.001}^{+0.001}$ days, identified with data from multiple sectors of the $\textit{TESS}$ space telescope. The $\textit{TESS}$ light curve of TOI-1232 is complex, as it is contaminated by a background eclipsing binary with a period of $1.37$ days. The TOI-1232 b was firmly confirmed by ground-based transit follow-up campaigns from Las Cumbres, Hazelwood, Brierfield, and ASTEP observatories.Additionally, the $\textit{TESS}$ transits of TOI-1232 b exhibit strong transit timing variations (TTVs) with a super-period of $235.5 \pm 0.7$ days and a semi-amplitude of 27 minutes. Radial velocity (RV) follow-up with the FEROS spectrograph confirms the planetary nature of the transiting candidate, while a self-consistent $N$-body analysis of RVs and TTVs pinpoints the presence of a second outer Saturn-mass companion, TOI-1232 c with a period of $P_{c} = 30.356_{-0.012}^{+0.010}$ days. The TOI-1232 warm-giant system is particularly important due to the evidence of two massive planets that reside near the 2:1 commensurability but are not locked in a mean motion resonance (MMR). Thanks to $\textit{TESS}$, we have revealed a handful of these rare systems. Hence, TOI-1232 is an important addition to understanding the formation and dynamical evolution of such compact, massive, warm giant planets.

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arXiv2026

Exoplanet transit search at the detection limit: detection and false alarm vetting pipeline

One of the primary mission goals of the Kepler space telescope was to detect Earth-like terrestrial planets in the habitable zone around Sun-like stars. These planets are at the detection limit, where the Kepler detection and vetting pipeline produced unreliable planet candidates. We present a novel pipeline that improves the removal of localized defects prior to the planet search, improves vetting at the level of individual transits and introduces a Bayes factor test statistic and an algorithm for extracting multiple candidates from a single detection run. We show with injections in the Kepler data that the introduced novelties improve pipeline's completeness at a fixed false alarm rate. We apply the pipeline to the stars with previously identified planet candidates and show that our pipeline successfully recovers the previously confirmed candidates, but flags a considerable portion of unconfirmed candidates as likely false alarms, especially in the long period, low signal-to-noise ratio regime. In particular, several known Earth-like candidates in the habitable zone, such as KOI 8063.01, 8107.01 and 8242.01, are identified as false alarms, which could have a significant impact on the estimates of $η_{\oplus}$, i.e., the occurrence of Earth-like planets in the habitable zone.

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arXiv2026

Two warm sub-Saturn mass planets identified from the TESS Full Frame Images

Context. Characterization of warm giants is crucial to constrain giant planet formation and evolution. Measuring the mass and radius of these planets, combined with their moderated irradiation, allows us to estimate their planetary bulk composition, which is a key quantity to comprehend giant planet formation and structure. Aims. We present the discovery of two transiting warm giant planets orbiting solar-type stars from the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS), which were characterized by further spectroscopic and photometric ground-based observations. Methods. We performed a joint analysis of photometric data with radial velocities to confirm and characterize TOI-883 b and TOI-899 b, two sub-Saturns orbiting solar-like stars. Results. TOI-883 b and TOI-899 b have masses of $0.123 \pm 0.012$ $M_J$ and $0.213 \pm 0.024$ $M_J$, radius of $0.604 \pm 0.028$ $R_J$ and $0.991 \pm 0.044$ $R_J$, periods of $10.06$ d and $12.85$ d and equilibrium temperature of $1086 \pm 19$ K and $1040 \pm 19$ K, respectively. Conclusions. While having similar masses, orbital periods and stellar host properties, these planets seem to have different internal compositions, which could point to distinct formation histories. Both planets are suitable targets for atmospheric studies to further constrain formation scenarios of planets in the Neptune-Saturn mass range

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arXiv2026

Gas-depleted planet formation occurred in the four-planet system around the red dwarf LHS 1903

Small exoplanet radii show two populations, referred to as super-Earths and sub-Neptunes, separated by a gap known as the radius valley. This may be produced by the removal of atmospheres due to stellar or internal heating, or lack of an initial envelope. We us transit photometry and radial velocity measurements to detect and characterize four planets orbiting LHS 1903, a red dwarf (M-dwarf) star in the Milky Way's thick disk. The planets have orbital periods between 2.2 and 29.3 days, and span the radius valley within a single planetary system. The derived densities indicate that LHS 1903 b is rocky, while LHS 1903 c and LHS 1903 d have extended atmospheres. Although the most distant planet from the host star, LHS 1903 e, has no gaseous envelope, indicating it formed from gas-depleted material.

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arXiv2026

ExoMiner++ 2.0: Vetting TESS Full-Frame Image Transit Signals

The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) Full-Frame Images (FFIs) provide photometric time series for millions of stars, enabling transit searches beyond the limited set of pre-selected 2-minute targets. However, FFIs present additional challenges for transit identification and vetting. In this work, we apply ExoMiner++ 2.0, an adaptation of the ExoMiner++ framework originally developed for TESS 2-minute data, to FFI light curves. The model is used to perform large-scale planet versus non-planet classification of Threshold Crossing Events across the sectors analyzed in this study. We construct a uniform vetting catalog of all evaluated signals and assess model performance under different observing conditions. We find that ExoMiner++ 2.0 generalizes effectively to the FFI domain, providing robust discrimination between planetary signals, astrophysical false positives, and instrumental artifacts despite the limitations inherent to longer cadence data. This work extends the applicability of ExoMiner++ to the full TESS dataset and supports future population studies and follow-up prioritization.

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arXiv2026

TOI-4495: A Pair of Aligned, Near-Resonant Sub-Neptunes that Likely Experienced Overstable Migration

We report the discovery of a sub-Neptune and a Neptune-like planet ($R_b = 2.48^{+0.14}_{-0.10}\,R_\oplus$, $R_c = 4.03^{+0.23}_{-0.15}\,R_\oplus$) orbiting the F-type star TOI-4495. The planets have orbital periods of 2.567 days and 5.185 days, lying close to a 2:1 mean-motion resonance (MMR). Our photodynamical analysis of the TESS light curves constrains the planetary masses to $M_b = 7.7 \pm 1.4\,M_\oplus$ and $M_c = 23.2 \pm 4.7\,M_\oplus$. The measured masses and radii indicate the presence of volatile-rich gaseous envelopes on both planets. The Rossiter-McLaughlin effect and the Doppler shadow of TOI-4495 c reveal a well-aligned orbit with a projected stellar obliquity of $λ= -2.3^{+8.3}_{-7.8}\,\mathrm{deg}$. Combined with the low mutual inclination constrained by the photodynamical analysis ($ΔI < 8.7\,\mathrm{deg}$), the planetary orbits are likely coplanar and aligned with the host star's spin axis. We show that the planets are near, but not in, the 2:1 MMR, with a circulating resonant angle. We also find substantial free eccentricity for the inner planet, TOI-4495 b ($e_b = 0.078^{+0.020}_{-0.013}$). Given the observed proximity to the 2:1 resonance and the more massive outer planet, TOI-4495 b and c are particularly susceptible to resonant overstability, which can convert resonantly excited eccentricity into free eccentricity. However, additional mechanisms (e.g., planetesimal scattering) may be required to further excite the eccentricity by $\sim 4\%$. To prevent tidal damping from reducing the eccentricity below the observed level over the star's lifetime (1.9 Gyr), the reduced tidal quality factor of TOI-4495 b must be $Q' \gtrsim 10^5$, consistent with the presence of a thick envelope on the planet.

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arXiv2025

From Earths to Super-Earths: Five New Small Planets Transiting M Dwarf Stars

Earth-sized planets transiting M dwarf stars present one of the best opportunities with current facilities for studying the atmospheric and bulk compositions of terrestrial worlds. Here, we statistically validate five new transiting Earth and super-Earth sized planets orbiting M dwarf stars using a combination of light curves from the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite, multi-color observations from Palomar and Las Cumbres Observatory, high-resolution imaging, and stellar spectroscopy. The sample includes: TOI-5716 b, an Earth-sized planet (R_p = 0.96 $\pm$ 0.05 Rearth) with a 6.766-day orbit around a metal-poor thin-disk star ([Fe/H] = -0.54 $\pm$ 0.10); TOI-5728 b, a super-Earth (R_p = 1.31 $\pm$ 0.05 Rearth) on an 11.497-day orbit; and TOI-5736 b, a larger planet (R_p = 1.56 $\pm$ 0.07 Rearth) with an ultra-short period of just 0.649 days. We also statistically validate a multi-planet system, TOI-5489, hosting two similarly-sized super-Earths: TOI-5489 b (R_p = 1.40 $\pm$ 0.05 R_earth) and TOI-5489 c (R_p = 1.28 $\pm$ 0.07 R_earth) with orbital periods of 3.152 and 4.921 days, respectively. Due to their longer orbital periods, TOI-5716 b and TOI-5728 b both have equilibrium temperatures $\leq$ 400 K, making them useful test cases for studies of atmospheric mass loss. If TOI-5728 b is confirmed to have an Earth-like bulk composition, it would join the very small sample of rocky planets orbiting mid- to late-M dwarfs that lie below the cosmic shoreline and therefore may have retained high mean molecular weight atmospheres.

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arXiv2025

Validation of a Third Earth-sized Planet in the TOI-2267 Binary System

We report the validation of a third terrestrial exoplanet in the nearby (22 pc) TOI-2267 system. TOI-2267 is a binary system with stellar components TOI-2267A (M5, 3030 K) and TOI-2267B (M6, 2930 K), with an on-sky separation of 0.$^{\prime\prime}$384 (8 au projected separation). TOI-2267 hosts two Earth-sized planets (TOI-2267 b, $1.00\pm0.11 R_{\oplus}$, and TOI-2267 c, $1.14\pm0.13 R_{\oplus}$, if orbiting the primary star; or $1.22\pm0.29 R_{\oplus}$ and $1.36\pm0.33 R_{\oplus}$, respectively, if orbiting the secondary star) with orbital periods of 2.3 and 3.5 days. This system also contains a third Earth-sized planet candidate with an orbital period of 2.0 days that was previously identified as a likely planet with a low false-positive probability, but could not be firmly validated due to the lack of independent observations beyond TESS data. We combine two new transit observations from the 5.1m Hale Telescope at Palomar Observatory with archival TESS data and high-resolution imaging to statistically validate the planetary nature of TOI-2267 d ($0.98\pm0.09 R_{\oplus}$ if orbiting the primary star, or $1.77\pm0.43 R_{\oplus}$ if orbiting the secondary star) using the updated TRICERATOPS+ pipeline. We attempt to determine the host star for TOI-2267 d using transit shape stellar density analysis, but are unable to conclusively assign a host. Our validation of TOI-2267 d suggests that TOI-2267 is either the first known double transiting M dwarf binary system, or hosts three planets in an extremely compact orbital configuration.

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arXiv2025

Why Estimating $η_\oplus$ is Difficult: A Kepler-Centric Perspective

$η_{\oplus}$, the occurrence rate of rocky habitable zone exoplanets orbiting Sun-like stars, is of great interest to both the astronomical community and the general public. The Kepler space telescope has made it possible to estimate $η_{\oplus}$, but estimates by different groups vary by more than an order of magnitude. We identify several causes for this range of estimates. We first review why, despite being designed to estimate $η_{\oplus}$, Kepler's observations are not sufficient for a high-confidence estimate, due to Kepler's detection limit coinciding with the $η_{\oplus}$ regime. This results in a need to infer $η_{\oplus}$, for example extrapolating from a regime of non-habitable zone, non-rocky exoplanets. We examine two broad classes of causes that can account for the large discrepancy in $η_\oplus$ found in the literature: a) differences in definitions and input data between studies, and b) fundamental limits in Kepler data that lead to large uncertainties and poor accuracy. We highlight the risk of large biases when using extrapolation to describe small exoplanet populations in the habitable zone. We discuss how $η_{\oplus}$ estimates based on Kepler data can be improved, such as reprocessing Kepler data for more complete, higher-reliability detections and better exoplanet catalog characterization. We briefly survey upcoming space telescopes capable of measuring $η_{\oplus}$, and how they can be used to supplement Kepler data.

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arXiv2025

An Ultra-Short Period Super-Earth and Sub-Neptune Spanning the Radius Valley Orbiting the Kinematic Thick Disk Star TOI-2345

A crucial chemical link between stars and their orbiting exoplanets is thought to exist. If universal, this connection could affect the formation and evolution of all planets. Therefore, this potential vital link needs testing by characterising exoplanets around chemically-diverse stars. We present the discovery of two planets orbiting the metal-poor, kinematic thick-disk K-dwarf TOI-2345. TOI-2345 b is a super-Earth with a period of 1.05 days and TOI-2345 c is a sub-Neptune with a period of 21 days. In addition to the target being observed in 4 TESS sectors, we obtained 5 CHEOPS visits and 26 radial velocities from HARPS. By conducting a joint analysis of all the data, we find TOI-2345 b to have a radius of $1.504\substack{+0.047\\-0.044}$ R$_\oplus$ and a mass of $3.49\pm0.85$ M$_\oplus$; and TOI-2345 c to have a radius of $2.451\substack{+0.045\\-0.046}$ R$_\oplus$ and a mass of $7.27\substack{+2.27\\-2.45}$ M$_\oplus$. To explore chemical links between these planets and their host star, we model their interior structures newly accounting for devolatised stellar abundances. TOI-2345 adds to the limited sample of well characterised planetary systems around thick disk stars. This system challenges theories of formation and populations of planets around thick disk stars with its Ultra-Short Period super-Earth and the wide period distribution of these two planets spanning the radius valley.

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arXiv2025

A New Brown Dwarf Orbiting an M star and An Investigation on the Eccentricity Distribution of Transiting Long-Period Brown Dwarfs

The orbital eccentricities of brown dwarfs encode valuable information of their formation and evolution history, providing insights into whether they resemble giant planets or stellar binaries. Here, we report the discovery of TOI-5575b, a long-period, massive brown dwarf orbiting a low-mass M5V star ($\rm 0.21\pm0.02\,M_\odot$) delivered by the TESS mission. The companion has a mass and radius of $\rm 72.4\pm4.1\,M_J$ and $\rm 0.84\pm0.07\,R_J$ on a 32-day moderately eccentric orbit ($e=0.187\pm0.002$), making it the third highest-mass-ratio transiting brown dwarf system known to date. Building on this discovery, we investigate the eccentricity distributions of a sample of transiting long-period ($10\leq P\lesssim 1000$ days, $\sim$0.1-1.5 AU) giant planets, brown dwarfs and low-mass stars. We find that brown dwarfs exhibit an eccentricity behavior nearly identical to that of giant planets: a preference for circular orbits with a long tail toward high eccentricities. Such a trend contrasts sharply with direct imaging findings, where cold (5-100 AU) brown dwarfs and giant planets display distinct eccentricity distributions. Our results suggest that transiting long-period brown dwarfs and giant planets probably 1) form in different routes at exterior orbits but undergo analogous dynamical evolution processes and migrate inwards; or 2) both contain two sub-groups, one with widely spread eccentricities while the other has circular orbits, that jointly sculpt the eccentricity distributions. The low-mass-star systems appear to be a distinctive population, showing a peak eccentricity at about 0.3, akin to more massive stellar binaries.

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arXiv2025

The TESS Grand Unified Hot Jupiter Survey. III. Thirty More Giant Planets

We present the discovery of 30 transiting giant planets that were initially detected using data from NASA's Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) mission. These new planets orbit relatively bright ($G \leq 12.5$) FGK host stars with orbital periods between 1.6 and 8.2 days, and have radii between 0.9 and 1.7 Jupiter radii. We performed follow-up ground-based photometry, high angular-resolution imaging, high-resolution spectroscopy and radial velocity monitoring for each of these objects to confirm that they are planets and determine their masses and other system parameters. The planets' masses span more than an order of magnitude ($0.17\,M_J < M_p < 3.3\,M_J$). For two planets, TOI-3593 b and TOI-4961 b, we measured significant non-zero eccentricities of $0.11^{+0.05}_{-0.03}$ and $0.18^{+0.04}_{-0.05}$ respectively, while for the other planets, the data typically provide a 1-$σ$ upper bound of 0.15 on the eccentricity. These discoveries represent a major step toward assembling a complete, magnitude-limited sample of transiting hot Jupiters around FGK stars.

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arXiv2025

11 New Transiting Brown Dwarfs and Very Low Mass Stars from TESS

We present the discovery of 11 new transiting brown dwarfs and low-mass M-dwarfs from NASA's TESS mission: TOI-2844, TOI-3122, TOI-3577, TOI-3755, TOI-4462, TOI-4635, TOI-4737, TOI-4759, TOI-5240, TOI-5467, and TOI-5882. They consist of 5 brown dwarf companions and 6 very low mass stellar companions ranging in mass from $25 M_{\rm J}$ to $128 M_{\rm J}$. We used a combination of photometric time-series, spectroscopic, and high resolution imaging follow-up as a part of the TESS Follow-up Observing Program (TFOP) in order to characterize each system. With over 50 transiting brown dwarfs confirmed, we now have a large enough sample to directly test different formation and evolutionary scenarios. We provide a renewed perspective on the transiting brown dwarf desert and its role in differentiating between planetary and stellar formation mechanisms. Our analysis of the eccentricity distribution for the transiting brown dwarf sample does not support previous claims of a transition between planetary and stellar formation at $\sim42$ $M_{\rm J}$. We also contribute a first look into the metallicity distribution of transiting companions in the range $7 - 150$ $M_{\rm J}$, showing that this too does not support a $\sim42$ $M_{\rm J}$ transition. Finally, we also detect a significant lithium absorption feature in one of the brown dwarf hosts (TOI-5882) but determine that the host star is likely old based on rotation, kinematic, and photometric measurements. We therefore claim that TOI-5882 may be a candidate for planetary engulfment.

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arXiv2025

A transiting giant planet in orbit around a 0.2-solar-mass host star

Planet formation models suggest that the formation of giant planets is significantly harder around low-mass stars, due to the scaling of protoplanetary disc masses with stellar mass. The discovery of giant planets orbiting such low-mass stars thus imposes strong constraints on giant planet formation processes. Here, we report the discovery of a transiting giant planet orbiting a $0.207 \pm 0.011 M_{\odot}$ star. The planet, TOI-6894 b, has a mass and radius of $M_P = 0.168 \pm 0.022 M_J (53.4 \pm 7.1 M_{\oplus})$ and $R_P = 0.855 \pm 0.022 R_J$, and likely includes $12 \pm 2 M_{\oplus}$ of metals. The discovery of TOI-6894 b highlights the need for a better understanding of giant planet formation mechanisms and the protoplanetary disc environments in which they occur. The extremely deep transits (17% depth) make TOI-6894 b one of the most accessible exoplanetary giants for atmospheric characterisation observations, which will be key for fully interpreting the formation history of this remarkable system and for the study of atmospheric methane chemistry.

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