arXiv subjects

Jonathan Bright

Publications and source records attributed to Jonathan Bright.

34 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2023

Artificial intelligence in government: Concepts, standards, and a unified framework

Recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI), especially in generative language modelling, hold the promise of transforming government. Given the advanced capabilities of new AI systems, it is critical that these are embedded using standard operational procedures, clear epistemic criteria, and behave in alignment with the normative expectations of society. Scholars in multiple domains have subsequently begun to conceptualize the different forms that AI applications may take, highlighting both their potential benefits and pitfalls. However, the literature remains fragmented, with researchers in social science disciplines like public administration and political science, and the fast-moving fields of AI, ML, and robotics, all developing concepts in relative isolation. Although there are calls to formalize the emerging study of AI in government, a balanced account that captures the full depth of theoretical perspectives needed to understand the consequences of embedding AI into a public sector context is lacking. Here, we unify efforts across social and technical disciplines by first conducting an integrative literature review to identify and cluster 69 key terms that frequently co-occur in the multidisciplinary study of AI. We then build on the results of this bibliometric analysis to propose three new multifaceted concepts for understanding and analysing AI-based systems for government (AI-GOV) in a more unified way: (1) operational fitness, (2) epistemic alignment, and (3) normative divergence. Finally, we put these concepts to work by using them as dimensions in a conceptual typology of AI-GOV and connecting each with emerging AI technical measurement standards to encourage operationalization, foster cross-disciplinary dialogue, and stimulate debate among those aiming to rethink government with AI.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2023

Approaches to the Algorithmic Allocation of Public Resources: A Cross-disciplinary Review

Allocation of scarce resources is a recurring challenge for the public sector: something that emerges in areas as diverse as healthcare, disaster recovery, and social welfare. The complexity of these policy domains and the need for meeting multiple and sometimes conflicting criteria has led to increased focus on the use of algorithms in this type of decision. However, little engagement between researchers across these domains has happened, meaning a lack of understanding of common problems and techniques for approaching them. Here, we performed a cross disciplinary literature review to understand approaches taken for different areas of algorithmic allocation including healthcare, organ transplantation, homelessness, disaster relief, and welfare. We initially identified 1070 papers by searching the literature, then six researchers went through them in two phases of screening resulting in 176 and 75 relevant papers respectively. We then analyzed the 75 papers from the lenses of optimization goals, techniques, interpretability, flexibility, bias, ethical considerations, and performance. We categorized approaches into human-oriented versus resource-oriented perspective, and individual versus aggregate and identified that 76% of the papers approached the problem from a human perspective and 60% from an aggregate level using optimization techniques. We found considerable potential for performance gains, with optimization techniques often decreasing waiting times and increasing success rate by as much as 50%. However, there was a lack of attention to responsible innovation: only around one third of the papers considered ethical issues in choosing the optimization goals while just a very few of them paid attention to the bias issues. Our work can serve as a guide for policy makers and researchers wanting to use an algorithm for addressing a resource allocation problem.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2023

A multidomain relational framework to guide institutional AI research and adoption

Calls for new metrics, technical standards and governance mechanisms to guide the adoption of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in institutions and public administration are now commonplace. Yet, most research and policy efforts aimed at understanding the implications of adopting AI tend to prioritize only a handful of ideas; they do not fully connect all the different perspectives and topics that are potentially relevant. In this position paper, we contend that this omission stems, in part, from what we call the relational problem in socio-technical discourse: fundamental ontological issues have not yet been settled--including semantic ambiguity, a lack of clear relations between concepts and differing standard terminologies. This contributes to the persistence of disparate modes of reasoning to assess institutional AI systems, and the prevalence of conceptual isolation in the fields that study them including ML, human factors, social science and policy. After developing this critique, we offer a way forward by proposing a simple policy and research design tool in the form of a conceptual framework to organize terms across fields--consisting of three horizontal domains for grouping relevant concepts and related methods: Operational, Epistemic, and Normative. We first situate this framework against the backdrop of recent socio-technical discourse at two premier academic venues, AIES and FAccT, before illustrating how developing suitable metrics, standards, and mechanisms can be aided by operationalizing relevant concepts in each of these domains. Finally, we outline outstanding questions for developing this relational approach to institutional AI research and adoption.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2023

Understanding Counterspeech for Online Harm Mitigation

Counterspeech offers direct rebuttals to hateful speech by challenging perpetrators of hate and showing support to targets of abuse. It provides a promising alternative to more contentious measures, such as content moderation and deplatforming, by contributing a greater amount of positive online speech rather than attempting to mitigate harmful content through removal. Advances in the development of large language models mean that the process of producing counterspeech could be made more efficient by automating its generation, which would enable large-scale online campaigns. However, we currently lack a systematic understanding of several important factors relating to the efficacy of counterspeech for hate mitigation, such as which types of counterspeech are most effective, what are the optimal conditions for implementation, and which specific effects of hate it can best ameliorate. This paper aims to fill this gap by systematically reviewing counterspeech research in the social sciences and comparing methodologies and findings with computer science efforts in automatic counterspeech generation. By taking this multi-disciplinary view, we identify promising future directions in both fields.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2022

How can we combat online misinformation? A systematic overview of current interventions and their efficacy

The spread of misinformation is a pressing global problem that has elicited a range of responses from researchers, policymakers, civil society and industry. Over the past decade, these stakeholders have developed many interventions to tackle misinformation that vary across factors such as which effects of misinformation they hope to target, at what stage in the misinformation lifecycle they are aimed at, and who they are implemented by. These interventions also differ in how effective they are at reducing susceptibility to (and curbing the spread of) misinformation. In recent years, a vast amount of scholarly work on misinformation has become available, which extends across multiple disciplines and methodologies. It has become increasingly difficult to comprehensively map all of the available interventions, assess their efficacy, and understand the challenges, opportunities and tradeoffs associated with using them. Few papers have systematically assessed and compared the various interventions, which has led to a lack of understanding in civic and policymaking discourses. With this in mind, we develop a new hierarchical framework for understanding interventions against misinformation online. The framework comprises three key elements: Interventions that Prepare people to be less susceptible; Interventions that Curb the spread and effects of misinformation; and Interventions that Respond to misinformation. We outline how different interventions are thought to work, categorise them, and summarise the available evidence on their efficacy; offering researchers, policymakers and practitioners working to combat online misinformation both an analytical framework that they can use to understand and evaluate different interventions (and which could be extended to address new interventions that we do not describe here) and a summary of the range of interventions that have been proposed to date.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2021

How do climate change skeptics engage with opposing views? Understanding mechanisms of social identity and cognitive dissonance in an online forum

Does engagement with opposing views help break down ideological `echo chambers'; or does it backfire and reinforce them? This question remains critical as academics, policymakers and activists grapple with the question of how to regulate political discussion on social media. In this study, we contribute to the debate by examining the impact of opposing views within a major climate change skeptic online community on Reddit. A large sample of posts (N = 3000) was manually coded as either dissonant or consonant which allowed the automated classification of the full dataset of more than 50,000 posts, with codes inferred from linked websites. We find that ideologically dissonant submissions act as a stimulant to activity in the community: they received more attention (comments) than consonant submissions, even though they received lower scores through up-voting and down-voting. Users who engaged with dissonant submissions were also more likely to return to the forum. Consistent with identity theory, confrontation with opposing views triggered activity in the forum, particularly among users that are highly engaged with the community. In light of the findings, theory of social identity and echo chambers is discussed and enhanced.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2020

Echo Chambers Exist! (But They're Full of Opposing Views)

The theory of echo chambers, which suggests that online political discussions take place in conditions of ideological homogeneity, has recently gained popularity as an explanation for patterns of political polarization and radicalization observed in many democratic countries. However, while micro-level experimental work has shown evidence that individuals may gravitate towards information that supports their beliefs, recent macro-level studies have cast doubt on whether this tendency generates echo chambers in practice, instead suggesting that cross-cutting exposures are a common feature of digital life. In this article, we offer an explanation for these diverging results. Building on cognitive dissonance theory, and making use of observational trace data taken from an online white nationalist website, we explore how individuals in an ideological 'echo chamber' engage with opposing viewpoints. We show that this type of exposure, far from being detrimental to radical online discussions, is actually a core feature of such spaces that encourages people to stay engaged. The most common 'echoes' in this echo chamber are in fact the sound of opposing viewpoints being undermined and marginalized. Hence echo chambers exist not only in spite of but thanks to the unifying presence of oppositional viewpoints. We conclude with reflections on policy implications of our study for those seeking to promote a more moderate political internet.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2019

SciPy 1.0--Fundamental Algorithms for Scientific Computing in Python

SciPy is an open source scientific computing library for the Python programming language. SciPy 1.0 was released in late 2017, about 16 years after the original version 0.1 release. SciPy has become a de facto standard for leveraging scientific algorithms in the Python programming language, with more than 600 unique code contributors, thousands of dependent packages, over 100,000 dependent repositories, and millions of downloads per year. This includes usage of SciPy in almost half of all machine learning projects on GitHub, and usage by high profile projects including LIGO gravitational wave analysis and creation of the first-ever image of a black hole (M87). The library includes functionality spanning clustering, Fourier transforms, integration, interpolation, file I/O, linear algebra, image processing, orthogonal distance regression, minimization algorithms, signal processing, sparse matrix handling, computational geometry, and statistics. In this work, we provide an overview of the capabilities and development practices of the SciPy library and highlight some recent technical developments.

cs.MS↗

arXiv2019

Estimating Traffic Disruption Patterns with Volunteered Geographic Information

Accurate understanding and forecasting of traffic is a key contemporary problem for policymakers. Road networks are increasingly congested, yet traffic data is often expensive to obtain, making informed policy-making harder. This paper explores the extent to which traffic disruption can be estimated from static features from the volunteered geographic information site OpenStreetMap (OSM). We use OSM features as predictors for linear regressions of counts of traffic disruptions and traffic volume at 6,500 points in the road network within 112 regions of Oxfordshire, UK. We show that more than half the variation in traffic volume and disruptions can be explained with static features alone, and use cross-validation and recursive feature elimination to evaluate the predictive power and importance of different land use categories. Finally, we show that using OSM's granular point of interest data allows for better predictions than the aggregate categories typically used in studies of transportation and land use.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2019

Diagnosing the performance of human mobility models at small spatial scales using volunteered geographic information

Accurate modelling of local population movement patterns is a core contemporary concern for urban policymakers, affecting both the short term deployment of public transport resources and the longer term planning of transport infrastructure. Yet, while macro-level population movement models (such as the gravity and radiation models) are well developed, micro-level alternatives are in much shorter supply, with most macro-models known to perform badly in smaller geographic confines. In this paper we take a first step to remedying this deficit, by leveraging two novel datasets to analyse where and why macro-level models of human mobility break down at small scales. In particular, we use an anonymised aggregate dataset from a major mobility app and combine this with freely available data from OpenStreetMap concerning land-use composition of different areas around the county of Oxfordshire in the United Kingdom. We show where different models fail, and make the case for a new modelling strategy which moves beyond rough heuristics such as distance and population size towards a detailed, granular understanding of the opportunities presented in different areas of the city.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2018

Does Campaigning on Social Media Make a Difference? Evidence from candidate use of Twitter during the 2015 and 2017 UK Elections

Social media are now a routine part of political campaigns all over the world. However, studies of the impact of campaigning on social platform have thus far been limited to cross-sectional datasets from one election period which are vulnerable to unobserved variable bias. Hence empirical evidence on the effectiveness of political social media activity is thin. We address this deficit by analysing a novel panel dataset of political Twitter activity in the 2015 and 2017 elections in the United Kingdom. We find that Twitter based campaigning does seem to help win votes, a finding which is consistent across a variety of different model specifications including a first difference regression. The impact of Twitter use is small in absolute terms, though comparable with that of campaign spending. Our data also support the idea that effects are mediated through other communication channels, hence challenging the relevance of engaging in an interactive fashion.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2018

Understanding news story chains using information retrieval and network clustering techniques

Content analysis of news stories (whether manual or automatic) is a cornerstone of the communication studies field. However, much research is conducted at the level of individual news articles, despite the fact that news events (especially significant ones) are frequently presented as "stories" by news outlets: chains of connected articles covering the same event from different angles. These stories are theoretically highly important in terms of increasing public recall of news items and enhancing the agenda-setting power of the press. Yet thus far, the field has lacked an efficient method for detecting groups of articles which form stories in a way that enables their analysis. In this work, we present a novel, automated method for identifying linked news stories from within a corpus of articles. This method makes use of techniques drawn from the field of information retrieval to identify textual closeness of pairs of articles, and then clustering techniques taken from the field of network analysis to group these articles into stories. We demonstrate the application of the method to a corpus of 61,864 articles, and show how it can efficiently identify valid story clusters within the corpus. We use the results to make observations about the prevalence and dynamics of stories within the UK news media, showing that more than 50% of news production takes place within stories.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2017

Explaining the emergence of echo chambers on social media: the role of ideology and extremism

The emergence of politically driven divisions in online discussion networks has attracted a wealth of literature, but also one which has thus far been largely limited to single country studies. Hence whilst there is good evidence that these networks do divide and fragment into what are often described as "echo chambers", we know little about the factors which might explain this division or make networks more or less fragmented, as studies have been limited to a small number of political groupings with limited possibilities for systematic comparison. This paper seeks to remedy this deficit, by providing a systematic large scale study of fragmentation on Twitter which considers discussion networks surrounding 90 different political parties in 23 different countries. It shows that political party groupings which are further apart in ideological terms interact less, and that individuals and parties which sit at the extreme ends of the ideological scale are particularly likely to form echo chambers. Indeed, exchanges between centrist parties who sit on different sides of the left-right divide are more likely than communication between centrist and extremist parties who are, notionally, from the same ideological wing. In light of the results, theory about exposure to different ideological viewpoints online is discussed and enhanced.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2016

Estimating Local Commuting Patterns From Geolocated Twitter Data

The emergence of large stores of transactional data generated by increasing use of digital devices presents a huge opportunity for policymakers to improve their knowledge of the local environment and thus make more informed and better decisions. A research frontier is hence emerging which involves exploring the type of measures that can be drawn from data stores such as mobile phone logs, Internet searches and contributions to social media platforms, and the extent to which these measures are accurate reflections of the wider population. This paper contributes to this research frontier, by exploring the extent to which local commuting patterns can be estimated from data drawn from Twitter. It makes three contributions in particular. First, it shows that simple heuristics drawn from geolocated Twitter data offer a good proxy for local commuting patterns; one which outperforms the major existing method for estimating these patterns (the radiation model). Second, it investigates sources of error in the proxy measure, showing that the model performs better on short trips with higher volumes of commuters; it also looks at demographic biases but finds that, surprisingly, measurements are not significantly affected by the fact that the demographic makeup of Twitter users differs significantly from the population as a whole. Finally, it looks at potential ways of going beyond simple heuristics by incorporating temporal information into models.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2016

Wikipedia traffic data and electoral prediction: towards theoretically informed models

This aim of this article is to explore the potential use of Wikipedia page view data for predicting electoral results. Responding to previous critiques of work using socially generated data to predict elections, which have argued that these predictions take place without any understanding of the mechanism which enables them, we first develop a theoretical model which highlights why people might seek information online at election time, and how this activity might relate to overall electoral outcomes, focussing especially on how different types of parties such as new and established parties might generate different information seeking patterns. We test this model on a novel dataset drawn from a variety of countries in the 2009 and 2014 European Parliament elections. We show that while Wikipedia offers little insight into absolute vote outcomes, it offers a good information about changes in both overall turnout at elections and in vote share for particular parties. These results are used to enhance existing theories about the drivers of aggregate patterns in online information seeking.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2014

Can electoral popularity be predicted using socially generated big data?

Today, our more-than-ever digital lives leave significant footprints in cyberspace. Large scale collections of these socially generated footprints, often known as big data, could help us to re-investigate different aspects of our social collective behaviour in a quantitative framework. In this contribution we discuss one such possibility: the monitoring and predicting of popularity dynamics of candidates and parties through the analysis of socially generated data on the web during electoral campaigns. Such data offer considerable possibility for improving our awareness of popularity dynamics. However they also suffer from significant drawbacks in terms of representativeness and generalisability. In this paper we discuss potential ways around such problems, suggesting the nature of different political systems and contexts might lend differing levels of predictive power to certain types of data source. We offer an initial exploratory test of these ideas, focussing on two data streams, Wikipedia page views and Google search queries. On the basis of this data, we present popularity dynamics from real case examples of recent elections in three different countries.

physics.soc-ph↗