arXiv subjects

Jonathan Demaeyer

Publications and source records attributed to Jonathan Demaeyer.

21 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2017

Stochastic parameterization of subgrid-scale processes in coupled ocean-atmosphere systems: Benefits and limitations of response theory

A stochastic subgrid-scale parameterization based on the Ruelle's response theory and proposed in Wouters and Lucarini [2012] is tested in the context of a low-order coupled ocean-atmosphere model for which a part of the atmospheric modes are considered as unresolved. A natural separation of the phase-space into an invariant set and its complement allows for an analytical derivation of the different terms involved in the parameterization, namely the average, the fluctuation and the long memory terms. In this case, the fluctuation term is an additive stochastic noise. Its application to the low-order system reveals that a considerable correction of the low-frequency variability along the invariant subset can be obtained, provided that the coupling is sufficiently weak. This new approach of scale separation opens new avenues of subgrid-scale parameterizations in multiscale systems used for climate forecasts.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2015

Low-frequency variability and heat transport in a low-order nonlinear coupled ocean-atmosphere model

We formulate and study a low-order nonlinear coupled ocean-atmosphere model with an emphasis on the impact of radiative and heat fluxes and of the frictional coupling between the two components. This model version extends a previous 24-variable version by adding a dynamical equation for the passive advection of temperature in the ocean, together with an energy balance model. The bifurcation analysis and the numerical integration of the model reveal the presence of low-frequency variability (LFV) concentrated on and near a long-periodic, attracting orbit. This orbit combines atmospheric and oceanic modes, and it arises for large values of the meridional gradient of radiative input and of frictional coupling. Chaotic behavior develops around this orbit as it loses its stability; this behavior is still dominated by the LFV on decadal and multi-decadal time scales that is typical of oceanic processes. Atmospheric diagnostics also reveals the presence of predominant low- and high-pressure zones, as well as of a subtropical jet; these features recall realistic climatological properties of the oceanic atmosphere. Finally, a predictability analysis is performed. Once the decadal-scale periodic orbits develop, the coupled system's short-term instabilities --- as measured by its Lyapunov exponents --- are drastically reduced, indicating the ocean's stabilizing role on the atmospheric dynamics. On decadal time scales, the recurrence of the solution in a certain region of the invariant subspace associated with slow modes displays some extended predictability, as reflected by the oscillatory behavior of the error for the atmospheric variables at long lead times.

nlin.CD↗

arXiv2009

Noise-induced escape from bifurcating attractors: Symplectic approach in the weak-noise limit

The effect of noise is studied in one-dimensional maps undergoing transcritical, tangent, and pitchfork bifurcations. The attractors of the noiseless map become metastable states in the presence of noise. In the weak-noise limit, a symplectic two-dimensional map is associated with the original one-dimensional map. The consequences of their noninvertibility on the phase-space structures are discussed. Heteroclinic orbits are identified which play a key role in the determination of the escape rates from the metastable states. Near bifurcations, the critical slowing down justifies the use of a continuous-time approximation replacing maps by flows, which allows the analytic calculation of the escape rates. This method provides the universal scaling behavior of the escape rates at the bifurcations.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗