arXiv subjects

Jonathan E. Taylor

Publications and source records attributed to Jonathan E. Taylor.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2023

Unbiased Estimation of Structured Prediction Error

Many modern datasets, such as those in ecology and geology, are composed of samples with spatial structure and dependence. With such data violating the usual independent and identically distributed (IID) assumption in machine learning and classical statistics, it is unclear a priori how one should measure the performance and generalization of models. Several authors have empirically investigated cross-validation (CV) methods in this setting, reaching mixed conclusions. We provide a class of unbiased estimation methods for general quadratic errors, correlated Gaussian response, and arbitrary prediction function $g$, for a noise-elevated version of the error. Our approach generalizes the coupled bootstrap (CB) from the normal means problem to general normal data, allowing correlation both within and between the training and test sets. CB relies on creating bootstrap samples that are intelligently decoupled, in the sense of being statistically independent. Specifically, the key to CB lies in generating two independent "views" of our data and using them as stand-ins for the usual independent training and test samples. Beginning with Mallows' $C_p$, we generalize the estimator to develop our generalized $C_p$ estimators (GC). We show at under only a moment condition on $g$, this noise-elevated error estimate converges smoothly to the noiseless error estimate. We show that when Stein's unbiased risk estimator (SURE) applies, GC converges to SURE as in the normal means problem. Further, we use these same tools to analyze CV and provide some theoretical analysis to help understand when CV will provide good estimates of error. Simulations align with our theoretical results, demonstrating the effectiveness of GC and illustrating the behavior of CV methods. Lastly, we apply our estimator to a model selection task on geothermal data in Nevada.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2021

The volume-of-tube method for Gaussian random fields with inhomogeneous variance

The tube method or the volume-of-tube method approximates the tail probability of the maximum of a smooth Gaussian random field with zero mean and unit variance. This method evaluates the volume of a spherical tube about the index set, and then transforms it to the tail probability. In this study, we generalize the tube method to a case in which the variance is not constant. We provide the volume formula for a spherical tube with a non-constant radius in terms of curvature tensors, and the tail probability formula of the maximum of a Gaussian random field with inhomogeneous variance, as well as its Laplace approximation. In particular, the critical radius of the tube is generalized for evaluation of the asymptotic approximation error. As an example, we discuss the approximation of the largest eigenvalue distribution of the Wishart matrix with a non-identity matrix parameter. The Bonferroni method is the tube method when the index set is a finite set. We provide the formula for the asymptotic approximation error for the Bonferroni method when the variance is not constant.

math.PR↗

arXiv2017

Selective inference with unknown variance via the square-root LASSO

There has been much recent work on inference after model selection when the noise level is known, however, $σ$ is rarely known in practice and its estimation is difficult in high-dimensional settings. In this work we propose using the square-root LASSO (also known as the scaled LASSO) to perform selective inference for the coefficients and the noise level simultaneously. The square-root LASSO has the property that choosing a reasonable tuning parameter is scale-free, namely it does not depend on the noise level in the data. We provide valid p-values and confidence intervals for the coefficients after selection, and estimates for model specific variance. Our estimates perform better than other estimates of $σ^2$ in simulation.

math.ST↗

arXiv2016

Selective inference with a randomized response

Inspired by sample splitting and the reusable holdout introduced in the field of differential privacy, we consider selective inference with a randomized response. We discuss two major advantages of using a randomized response for model selection. First, the selectively valid tests are more powerful after randomized selection. Second, it allows consistent estimation and weak convergence of selective inference procedures. Under independent sampling, we prove a selective (or privatized) central limit theorem that transfers procedures valid under asymptotic normality without selection to their corresponding selective counterparts. This allows selective inference in nonparametric settings. Finally, we propose a framework of inference after combining multiple randomized selection procedures. We focus on the classical asymptotic setting, leaving the interesting high-dimensional asymptotic questions for future work.

math.ST↗

arXiv2016

Topological consistency via kernel estimation

We introduce a consistent estimator for the homology (an algebraic structure representing connected components and cycles) of level sets of both density and regression functions. Our method is based on kernel estimation. We apply this procedure to two problems: (1) inferring the homology structure of manifolds from noisy observations, (2) inferring the persistent homology (a multi-scale extension of homology) of either density or regression functions. We prove consistency for both of these problems. In addition to the theoretical results, we demonstrate these methods on simulated data for binary regression and clustering applications.

math.ST↗

arXiv2016

Convergence of the Reach for a Sequence of Gaussian-Embedded Manifolds

Motivated by questions of manifold learning, we study a sequence of random manifolds, generated by embedding a fixed, compact manifold $M$ into Euclidean spheres of increasing dimension via a sequence of Gaussian mappings. One of the fundamental smoothness parameters of manifold learning theorems is the reach, or critical radius, of $M$. Roughly speaking, the reach is a measure of a manifold's departure from convexity, which incorporates both local curvature and global topology. This paper develops limit theory for the reach of a family of random, Gaussian-embedded, manifolds, establishing both almost sure convergence for the global reach, and a fluctuation theory for both it and its local version. The global reach converges to a constant well known both in the reproducing kernel Hilbert space theory of Gaussian processes, as well as in their extremal theory.

math.PR↗

arXiv2016

Exact post-selection inference, with application to the lasso

We develop a general approach to valid inference after model selection. At the core of our framework is a result that characterizes the distribution of a post-selection estimator conditioned on the selection event. We specialize the approach to model selection by the lasso to form valid confidence intervals for the selected coefficients and test whether all relevant variables have been included in the model.

math.ST↗

arXiv2015

The Intrinsic Geometry of Some Random Manifolds

We study the a.s. convergence of a sequence of random embeddings of a fixed manifold into Euclidean spaces of increasing dimensions. We show that the limit is deterministic. As a consequence, we show that many intrinsic functionals of the embedded manifolds also converge to deterministic limits. Particularly interesting examples of these functionals are given by the Lipschitz-Killing curvatures, for which we also prove unbiasedness, using the Gaussian kinematic formula.

math.PR↗

arXiv2015

Selective inference in regression models with groups of variables

We provide a general mathematical framework for selective inference with supervised model selection procedures characterized by quadratic forms in the outcome variable. Forward stepwise with groups of variables is an important special case as it allows models with categorical variables or factors. Models can be chosen by AIC, BIC, or a fixed number of steps. We provide an exact significance test for each group of variables in the selected model based on an appropriately truncated $χ$ or $F$ distribution for the cases of known and unknown $σ^2$ respectively. An efficient software implementation is available as a package in the R statistical programming language.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2015

Communication-efficient sparse regression: a one-shot approach

We devise a one-shot approach to distributed sparse regression in the high-dimensional setting. The key idea is to average "debiased" or "desparsified" lasso estimators. We show the approach converges at the same rate as the lasso as long as the dataset is not split across too many machines. We also extend the approach to generalized linear models.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2014

On model selection consistency of regularized M-estimators

Regularized M-estimators are used in diverse areas of science and engineering to fit high-dimensional models with some low-dimensional structure. Usually the low-dimensional structure is encoded by the presence of the (unknown) parameters in some low-dimensional model subspace. In such settings, it is desirable for estimates of the model parameters to be \emph{model selection consistent}: the estimates also fall in the model subspace. We develop a general framework for establishing consistency and model selection consistency of regularized M-estimators and show how it applies to some special cases of interest in statistical learning. Our analysis identifies two key properties of regularized M-estimators, referred to as geometric decomposability and irrepresentability, that ensure the estimators are consistent and model selection consistent.

math.ST↗

arXiv2014

A significance test for forward stepwise model selection

We apply the methods developed by Lockhart et al. (2013) and Taylor et al. (2013) on significance tests for penalized regression to forward stepwise model selection. A general framework for selection procedures described by quadratic inequalities includes a variant of forward stepwise with grouped variables, allowing us to handle categorical variables and factor models. We provide an algorithm to compute a new statistic with an exact null distribution conditional on the outcome of the model selection procedure. This new statistic, which we denote $Tχ$, has a truncated $χ$ distribution under the global null. We apply this test in forward stepwise iteratively on the residual after each step. The resulting method has the computational strengths of stepwise selection and addresses the problem of invalid test statistics due to model selection. We illustrate the flexibility of this method by applying it to several specialized applications of forward stepwise including a hierarchical interactions model and a recently described additive model that adaptively chooses between linear and nonlinear effects for each variable.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2014

Valid post-correction inference for censored regression problems

Two-step estimators often called upon to fit censored regression models in many areas of science and engineering. Since censoring incurs a bias in the naive least-squares fit, a two-step estimator first estimates the bias and then fits a corrected linear model. We develop a framework for performing valid /post-correction inference/ with two-step estimators. By exploiting recent results on post-selection inference, we obtain valid confidence intervals and significance tests for the fitted coefficients.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2013

Random fields and the geometry of Wiener space

In this work we consider infinite dimensional extensions of some finite dimensional Gaussian geometric functionals called the Gaussian Minkowski functionals. These functionals appear as coefficients in the probability content of a tube around a convex set $D\subset\mathbb{R}^k$ under the standard Gaussian law $N(0,I_{k\times k})$. Using these infinite dimensional extensions, we consider geometric properties of some smooth random fields in the spirit of [Random Fields and Geometry (2007) Springer] that can be expressed in terms of reasonably smooth Wiener functionals.

math.PR↗

arXiv2013

Rotation and scale space random fields and the Gaussian kinematic formula

We provide a new approach, along with extensions, to results in two important papers of Worsley, Siegmund and coworkers closely tied to the statistical analysis of fMRI (functional magnetic resonance imaging) brain data. These papers studied approximations for the exceedence probabilities of scale and rotation space random fields, the latter playing an important role in the statistical analysis of fMRI data. The techniques used there came either from the Euler characteristic heuristic or via tube formulae, and to a large extent were carefully attuned to the specific examples of the paper. This paper treats the same problem, but via calculations based on the so-called Gaussian kinematic formula. This allows for extensions of the Worsley-Siegmund results to a wide class of non-Gaussian cases. In addition, it allows one to obtain results for rotation space random fields in any dimension via reasonably straightforward Riemannian geometric calculations. Previously only the two-dimensional case could be covered, and then only via computer algebra. By adopting this more structured approach to this particular problem, a solution path for other, related problems becomes clearer.

math.PR↗

arXiv2013

High level excursion set geometry for non-Gaussian infinitely divisible random fields

We consider smooth, infinitely divisible random fields $(X(t),t\in M)$, $M\subset {\mathbb{R}}^d$, with regularly varying Levy measure, and are interested in the geometric characteristics of the excursion sets \[A_u=\{t\in M:X(t)>u\}\] over high levels u. For a large class of such random fields, we compute the $u\to\infty$ asymptotic joint distribution of the numbers of critical points, of various types, of X in $A_u$, conditional on $A_u$ being nonempty. This allows us, for example, to obtain the asymptotic conditional distribution of the Euler characteristic of the excursion set. In a significant departure from the Gaussian situation, the high level excursion sets for these random fields can have quite a complicated geometry. Whereas in the Gaussian case nonempty excursion sets are, with high probability, roughly ellipsoidal, in the more general infinitely divisible setting almost any shape is possible.

math.PR↗

arXiv2012

Whole-brain Prediction Analysis with GraphNet

Multivariate machine learning methods are increasingly used to analyze neuroimaging data, often replacing more traditional "mass univariate" techniques that fit data one voxel at a time. In the functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) literature, this has led to broad application of "off-the-shelf" classification and regression methods. These generic approaches allow investigators to use ready-made algorithms to accurately decode perceptual, cognitive, or behavioral states from distributed patterns of neural activity. However, when applied to correlated whole-brain fMRI data these methods suffer from coefficient instability, are sensitive to outliers, and yield dense solutions that are hard to interpret without arbitrary thresholding. Here, we develop variants of the the Graph-constrained Elastic Net (GraphNet), ..., we (1) extend GraphNet to include robust loss functions that confer insensitivity to outliers, (2) equip them with "adaptive" penalties that asymptotically guarantee correct variable selection, and (3) develop a novel sparse structured Support Vector GraphNet classifier (SVGN). When applied to previously published data, these efficient whole-brain methods significantly improved classification accuracy over previously reported VOI-based analyses on the same data while discovering task-related regions not documented in the original VOI approach. Critically, GraphNet estimates generalize well to out-of-sample data collected more than three years later on the same task but with different subjects and stimuli. By enabling robust and efficient selection of important voxels from whole-brain data taken over multiple time points (>100,000 "features"), these methods enable data-driven selection of brain areas that accurately predict single-trial behavior within and across individuals.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2012

Detecting sparse cone alternatives for Gaussian random fields, with an application to fMRI

Our problem is to find a good approximation to the P-value of the maximum of a random field of test statistics for a cone alternative at each point in a sample of Gaussian random fields. These test statistics have been proposed in the neuroscience literature for the analysis of fMRI data allowing for unknown delay in the hemodynamic response. However the null distribution of the maximum of this 3D random field of test statistics, and hence the threshold used to detect brain activation, was unsolved. To find a solution, we approximate the P-value by the expected Euler characteristic (EC) of the excursion set of the test statistic random field. Our main result is the required EC density, derived using the Gaussian Kinematic Formula.

math.ST↗