arXiv subjects

Jonathan Horner

Publications and source records attributed to Jonathan Horner.

143 records · Page 8Linked to original sources

arXiv2013

Dynamical Constraints on Multi-Planet Exoplanetary Systems

As a direct result of ongoing efforts to detect more exoplanetary systems, an ever-increasing number of multiple-planet systems are being announced. But how many of these systems are truly what they seem? In many cases, such systems are announced solely on the basis of orbital fits to observational data, and no attempt is made to see whether the proposed orbits are actually dynamically feasible. As a result, it is certain that planetary systems are being announced that involve planets moving on orbits that would be dynamically unstable on timescales of just a few hundred years. Here, we present the results of dynamical simulations that investigate the orbital stability and evolution of a number of recently discovered exoplanetary systems. These simulations have enabled us to create highly detailed dynamical maps of those systems, allowing us to better constrain the orbits of the planets contained therein. In some cases, our results have even led to the very existence of the planets themselves being called into question.

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arXiv2013

On the dynamical stability of the proposed planetary system orbiting NSVS 14256825

We present a detailed dynamical analysis of the orbital stability of the two circumbinary planets recently proposed to orbit the evolved eclipsing binary star system NSVS 14256825. As is the case for other recently proposed circumbinary planetary systems detected through the timing of mutual eclipses between the central binary stars, the proposed planets do not stand up to dynamical scrutiny. The proposed orbits for the two planets are extremely unstable on timescales of less than a thousand years, regardless of the mutual inclination between the planetary orbits. For the scenario where the planetary orbits are coplanar, a small region of moderate stability was observed, featuring orbits that were somewhat protected from destabilisation by the influence of mutual 2:1 mean-motion resonance between the orbits of the planets. Even in this stable region, however, the systems tested typically only survived on timescales of order 1 million years, far shorter than the age of the system. Our results suggest that, if there are planets in the NSVS 14256825 system, they must move on orbits dramatically different to those proposed in the discovery work. More observations are clearly critically required in order to constrain the nature of the suggested orbital bodies.

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arXiv2013

Observations of the D/H ratio in Methane in the atmosphere of Saturn's moon, Titan - where did the Saturnian system form?

The details of the Solar system's formation are still heavily debated. Questions remain about the formation locations of the giant planets, and the degree to which volatile material was mixed throughout the proto-planetary system. One diagnostic which offers great promise in helping to unravel the history of planet formation is the study of the level of deuteration in various Solar system bodies. For example, the D/H ratio of methane in the atmosphere of Titan can be used as a diagnostic of the initial conditions of the solar nebula within the region of giant planet formation, and can help us to determine where Titan (and, by extension, the Saturnian system) accreted its volatile material. The level of Titanian deuteration also has implications for both the sources and long term evolution of Titan's atmospheric composition. We present the results of observations taken in the 1.58 microns window using the NIFS spectrometer on the Gemini telescope, and model our data using the VSTAR line--by--line transfer model, which yields a D/H ratio for Titan's atmosphere of 143+/-16) x 10^{-6} [1]. We are currently in the process of modeling the Gemini high resolution GNIRS spectra using new sets of line parameters derived for methane in the region between 1.2-1.7 microns [2].

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arXiv2013

Capturing Trojans and Irregular Satellites - the key required to unlock planetary migration

It is now accepted that the Solar system's youth was a dynamic and chaotic time. The giant planets migrated significant distances to reach their current locations, and evidence of that migration's influence on the Solar system abounds. That migration's pace, and the distance over which it occurred, is still heavily debated. Some models feature systems in which the giant planets were initially in an extremely compact configuration, in which Uranus and Neptune are chaotically scattered into the outer Solar system. Others feature architectures that were initially more relaxed, and smoother, more sedate migration. To determine which of these scenarios best represents the formation of our Solar system, we must turn to the structure of the system's small body populations, in which the scars of that migration are still clearly visible. We present the first results of a program investigating the effect of giant planet migration on the reservoirs of small bodies that existed at that time. As the planets migrate, they stir these reservoirs, scattering vast numbers of small bodies onto dynamically unstable orbits in the outer Solar system. The great majority of those bodies are rapidly removed from the system, through collisions and ejections, but a small number become captured as planetary Trojans or irregular satellites. Others are driven by the migration, leading to a significant sculpting of the asteroid belt and trans-Neptunian region. The capture and retention efficiencies to these stable reservoirs depend on the particular migration scenario used. Advocates of chaotic migration from an initially compact scenario argue that smoother, more sedate migration cannot explain the observed populations of Trojans and irregular satellites. Our results draw a strikingly different picture, revealing that such smooth migration is perfectly capable of reproducing the observed populations.

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arXiv2012

Signals embedded in the radial velocity noise. Periodic variations in the tau Ceti velocities

The abilities of radial velocity exoplanet surveys to detect the lowest-mass extra-solar planets are currently limited by a combination of instrument precision, lack of data, and "jitter". Jitter is a general term for any unknown features in the noise, and reflects a lack of detailed knowledge of stellar physics (asteroseismology, starspots, magnetic cycles, granulation, and other stellar surface phenomena), as well as the possible underestimation of instrument noise. We study an extensive set of radial velocities for the star HD 10700 ($τ$ Ceti) to determine the properties of the jitter arising from stellar surface inhomogeneities, activity, and telescope-instrument systems, and perform a comprehensive search for planetary signals in the radial velocities. We perform Bayesian comparisons of statistical models describing the radial velocity data to quantify the number of significant signals and the magnitude and properties of the excess noise in the data. We reach our goal by adding artificial signals to the "flat" radial velocity data of HD 10700 and by seeing which one of our statistical noise models receives the greatest posterior probabilities while still being able to extract the artificial signals correctly from the data. We utilise various noise components to assess properties of the noise in the data and analyse the HARPS, AAPS, and HIRES data for HD 10700 to quantify these properties and search for previously unknown low-amplitude Keplerian signals. ...

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arXiv2012

Resonances Required: Dynamical Analysis of the 24 Sex and HD 200964 Planetary Systems

We perform several suites of highly detailed dynamical simulations to investigate the architectures of the 24 Sextantis and HD 200964 planetary systems. The best fit orbital solution for the two planets in the 24 Sex system places them on orbits with periods that lie very close to 2:1 commensurability, while that for the HD 200964 system places the two planets therein in orbits whose periods lie close to a 4:3 commensurability. In both cases, the proposed best-fit orbits are mutually crossing - a scenario that is only dynamically feasible if the planets are protected from close encounters by the effects of mutual mean motion resonance. Our simulations reveal that the best fit orbits for both systems lie within narrow islands of dynamical stability, and are surrounded by much larger regions of extreme instability. As such, we show that the planets are only feasible if they are currently trapped in mutual mean-motion resonance - the 2:1 resonance in the case of 24 Sex b and c, and the 4:3 resonance in the case of HD 200964 b and c. In both cases, the region of stability is strongest and most pronounced when the planetary orbits are mutually coplanar. As the inclination of planet c with respect to planet b is increased, the stability of both systems rapidly collapses.

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arXiv2012

Cyclic Transit Probabilities of Long-Period Eccentric Planets Due to Periastron Precession

The observed properties of transiting exoplanets are an exceptionally rich source of information that allows us to understand and characterize their physical properties. Unfortunately, only a relatively small fraction of the known exoplanets discovered using the radial velocity technique are known to transit their host, due to the stringent orbital geometry requirements. For each target, the transit probability and predicted transit time can be calculated to great accuracy with refinement of the orbital parameters. However, the transit probability of short period and eccentric orbits can have a reasonable time dependence due to the effects of apsidal and nodal precession, thus altering their transit potential and predicted transit time. Here we investigate the magnitude of these precession effects on transit probabilities and apply this to the known radial velocity exoplanets. We assess the refinement of orbital parameters as a path to measuring these precessions and cyclic transit probabilities.

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arXiv2012

2004 KV18 - A visitor from the Scattered Disk to the Neptune Trojan population

We have performed a detailed dynamical study of the recently identified Neptunian Trojan 2004 KV18, only the second object to be discovered librating around Neptune's trailing Lagrange point, L5. We find that 2004 KV18 is moving on a highly unstable orbit, and was most likely captured from the Centaur population at some point in the last ~1 Myr, having originated in the Scattered Disk, beyond the orbit of Neptune. The instability of 2004 KV18 is so great that many of the test particles studied leave the Neptunian Trojan cloud within just ~0.1 - 0.3 Myr, and it takes just 37 million years for half of the 91125 test particles created to study its dynamical behaviour to be removed from the Solar system entirely. Unlike the other Neptunian Trojans previously found to display dynamical instability on hundred million year timescales (2001 QR322 and 2008 LC18), 2004 KV18 displays such extreme instability that it must be a temporarily captured Trojan, rather than a primordial member of the Neptunian Trojan population. As such, it offers a fascinating insight into the processes through which small bodies are transferred around the outer Solar system, and represents an exciting addition to the menagerie of the Solar system's small bodies.

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arXiv2012

A Detailed Investigation of the Proposed NN Serpentis Planetary System

The post-main sequence eclipsing binary NN Serpentis was recently announced as the potential host of at least two massive planetary companions. In that work, the authors put forward two potential architectures that fit the observations of the eclipsing binary with almost identical precision. In this work, we present the results of a dynamical investigation of the orbital stability of both proposed system architectures, finding that they are only stable for scenarios in which the planets are locked in mutual mean motion resonance. In the discovery work, the authors artificially fixed the orbital eccentricity of the more massive planet, NN Ser(AB) c, at 0. Here, we reanalyse the observational data on NN Serpentis without this artificial constraint, and derive a new orbital solution for the two proposed planets. We detail the results of further dynamical simulations investigating the stability of our new orbital solution, and find that allowing a small non-zero eccentricity for the outer planet renders the system unstable. We conclude that, although the original orbits proposed for the NN Serpentis planetary system prove dynamically feasible, further observations of the system are vital in order to better constrain the system's true architecture.

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arXiv2012

Are Two of the Neptune Trojans Dynamically Unstable?

The Neptune Trojans are the most recently discovered population of small bodies in the Solar System. To date, only eight have been discovered, though it is thought likely that the total population at least rivals that of the asteroid belt. Their origin is still the subject of some debate. Here, we detail the results of dynamical studies of two Neptune Trojans, 2001 QR322 and 2008 LC18. We find that both objects lie very close to boundaries between dynamically stable and unstable regions, with a significant probability that either or both of the objects are actually unstable on timescales of a few hundred million years. Such instability supports the idea that at least these two Neptune Trojans are dynamically captured objects, rather than objects that formed in situ. This that does not, however, rule out the possibility that these two objects were captured during Neptune's proposed post-formation migration, and have remained as Trojans ever since.

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arXiv2012

The Curious Case of HU Aquarii - Dynamically Testing Proposed Planetary Systems

In early 2011, the discovery of two planets moving on surprisingly extreme orbits around the eclipsing polar cataclysmic variable system HU Aquraii was announced based on variations in the timing of mutual eclipses between the two central stars. We perform a detailed dynamical analysis of the stability of the exoplanet system as proposed in that work, revealing that it is simply dynamically unfeasible. We then apply the latest rigorous methods used by the Anglo-Australian Planet Search to analyse radial velocity data to re-examine the data used to make the initial claim. Using that data, we arrive at a significantly different orbital solution for the proposed planets, which we then show through dynamical analysis to be equally unfeasible. Finally, we discuss the need for caution in linking eclipse-timing data for cataclysmic variables to the presence of planets, and suggest a more likely explanation for the observed signal.

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arXiv2011

The dynamical evolution of dwarf planet (136108) Haumea's collisional family: General properties and implications for the trans-Neptunian belt

Recently, the first collisional family was identified in the trans-Neptunian belt. The family consists of Haumea and at least ten other ~100km-sized trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) located in the region a = 42 - 44.5 AU. In this work, we model the long-term orbital evolution of an ensemble of fragments representing hypothetical post-collision distributions at the time of the family's birth. We consider three distinct scenarios, in which the kinetic energy of dispersed particles were varied such that their mean ejection velocities (veje) were of order 200 m/s, 300 m/s and 400 m/s, respectively. Each simulation considered resulted in collisional families that reproduced that currently observed. The results suggest that 60-75% of the fragments created in the collision will remain in the trans-Neptunian belt, even after 4 Gyr of dynamical evolution. The surviving particles were typically concentrated in wide regions of orbital element space centred on the initial impact location, with their orbits spread across a region spanning Δa ~ 6-12 AU, Δe ~ 0.1-0.15 and Δi ~ 7-10°. Most of the survivors populated the so-called Classical and Detached regions of the trans-Neptunian belt, whilst a minor fraction entered the Scattered Disk reservoir (<1%), or were captured in Neptunian mean motion resonances (<10%). In addition, except for those fragments located near strong resonances, the great majority displayed negligible long-term orbital variation. This implies that the orbital distribution of the intrinsic Haumean family can be used to constrain the orbital conditions and physical nature of the collision that created the family, billions of years ago. Indeed, our results suggest that the formation of the Haumean collisional family most likely occurred after the bulk of Neptune's migration was complete, or even some time after the migration had completely ceased.

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arXiv2010

Origin and Dynamical Evolution of Neptune Trojans - II: Long Term Evolution

We present results examining the fate of the Trojan clouds produced in our previous work. We find that the stability of Neptunian Trojans seems to be strongly correlated to their initial post-migration orbital elements, with those objects that survive as Trojans for billions of years displaying negligible orbital evolution. The great majority of these survivors began the integrations with small eccentricities (e < 0.2) and small libration amplitudes (A < 30 - 40°). The survival rate of "pre-formed" Neptunian Trojans (which in general survived on dynamically cold orbits (e < 0.1, i < 5 - 10°)) varied between ~5 and 70%. By contrast, the survival rate of "captured" Trojans (on final orbits spread across a larger region of e-i element space) were markedly lower, ranging between 1 and 10% after 4 Gyr. Taken in concert with our earlier work, we note that planetary formation scenarios which involve the slow migration (a few tens of millions of years) of Neptune from an initial planetary architecture that is both resonant and compact (aN < 18 AU) provide the most promising fit of those we considered to the observed Trojan population. In such scenarios, we find that the current day Trojan population would number ~1% of that which was present at the end of the planet's migration, with the bulk being sourced from captured, rather than pre-formed objects. We note, however, that even those scenarios still fail to reproduce the currently observed portion of the Neptune Trojan population moving on orbits with e < 0.1 but i > 20°. Dynamical integrations of the currently observed Trojans show that five out of the seven are dynamically stable on 4 Gyr timescales, while 2001 QR322, exhibits significant dynamical instability. The seventh Trojan object, 2008 LC18, has such large orbital uncertainties that only future studies will be able to determine its stability.

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arXiv2010

Planetary Trojans - the main source of short period comets?

We present a short review of the impact regime experienced by the terrestrial planets within our own Solar system, describing the three populations of potentially hazardous objects which move on orbits that take them through the inner Solar system. Of these populations, the origins of two (the Near-Earth Asteroids and the Long-Period Comets) are well understood, with members originating in the Asteroid belt and Oort cloud, respectively. By contrast, the source of the third population, the Short-Period Comets, is still under debate. The proximate source of these objects is the Centaurs, a population of dynamically unstable objects that pass perihelion between the orbits of Jupiter and Neptune. However, a variety of different origins have been suggested for the Centaur population. Here, we present evidence that at least a significant fraction of the Centaur population can be sourced from the planetary Trojan clouds, stable reservoirs of objects moving in 1:1 mean-motion resonance with the giant planets (primarily Jupiter and Neptune). Focusing on simulations of the Neptunian Trojan population, we show that an ongoing flux of objects should be leaving that region to move on orbits within the Centaur population. With conservative estimates of the flux from the Neptunian Trojan clouds, we show that their contribution to that population could be of order ~3%, while more realistic estimates suggest that the Neptune Trojans could even be the main source of fresh Centaurs. We suggest that further observational work is needed to constrain the contribution made by the Neptune Trojans to the ongoing flux of material to the inner Solar system, and believe that future studies of the habitability of exoplanetary systems should take care not to neglect the contribution of resonant objects (such as planetary Trojans) to the impact flux that could be experienced by potentially habitable worlds.

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arXiv2010

Impact regimes and post-formation sequestration processes: implications for the origin of heavy noble gases in terrestrial planets

The difference between the measured atmospheric abundances of neon, argon, krypton and xenon for Venus, the Earth and Mars is striking. Because these abundances drop by at least two orders of magnitude as one moves outward from Venus to Mars, the study of the origin of this discrepancy is a key issue that must be explained if we are to fully understand the different delivery mechanisms of the volatiles accreted by the terrestrial planets. In this work, we aim to investigate whether it is possible to quantitatively explain the variation of the heavy noble gas abundances measured on Venus, the Earth and Mars, assuming that cometary bombardment was the main delivery mechanism of these noble gases to the terrestrial planets. To do so, we use recent dynamical simulations that allow the study of the impact fluxes of comets upon the terrestrial planets during the course of their formation and evolution. Assuming that the mass of noble gases delivered by comets is proportional to rate at which they collide with the terrestrial planets, we show that the krypton and xenon abundances in Venus and the Earth can be explained in a manner consistent with the hypothesis of cometary bombardment. In order to explain the krypton and xenon abundance differences between the Earth and Mars, we need to invoke the presence of large amounts of CO2-dominated clathrates in the Martian soil that would have efficiently sequestered these noble gases.

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arXiv2008

Constraints from deuterium on the formation of icy bodies in the Jovian system and beyond

We consider the role of deuterium as a potential marker of location and ambient conditions during the formation of small bodies in our Solar system. We concentrate in particular on the formation of the regular icy satellites of Jupiter and the other giant planets, but include a discussion of the implications for the Trojan asteroids and the irregular satellites. We examine in detail the formation of regular planetary satellites within the paradigm of a circum-Jovian subnebula. Particular attention is paid to the two extreme potential subnebulae - "hot" and "cold". In particular, we show that, for the case of the "hot" subnebula model, the D:H ratio in water ice measured from the regular satellites would be expected to be near-Solar. In contrast, satellites which formed in a "cold" subnebula would be expected to display a D:H ratio that is distinctly over-Solar. We then compare the results obtained with the enrichment regimes which could be expected for other families of icy small bodies in the outer Solar system - the Trojan asteroids and the irregular satellites. In doing so, we demonstrate how measurements by Laplace, the James Webb Space Telescope, HERSCHEL and ALMA will play an important role in determining the true formation locations and mechanisms of these objects.

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arXiv2007

Origin of volatiles in the Main Belt

We propose a scenario for the formation of the Main Belt in which asteroids incorporated icy particles formed in the outer Solar Nebula. We calculate the composition of icy planetesimals formed beyond a heliocentric distance of 5 AU in the nebula by assuming that the abundances of all elements, in particular that of oxygen, are solar. As a result, we show that ices formed in the outer Solar Nebula are composed of a mix of clathrate hydrates, hydrates formed above 50 K and pure condensates produced at lower temperatures. We then consider the inward migration of solids initially produced in the outer Solar Nebula and show that a significant fraction may have drifted to the current position of the Main Belt without encountering temperature and pressure conditions high enough to vaporize the ices they contain. We propose that, through the detection and identification of initially buried ices revealed by recent impacts on the surfaces of asteroids, it could be possible to infer the thermodynamic conditions that were present within the Solar Nebula during the accretion of these bodies, and during the inward migration of icy planetesimals. We also investigate the potential influence that the incorporation of ices in asteroids may have on their porosities and densities. In particular, we show how the presence of ices reduces the value of the bulk density of a given body, and consequently modifies its macro-porosity from that which would be expected from a given taxonomic type.

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