arXiv subjects

Jonathan Mummolo

Publications and source records attributed to Jonathan Mummolo.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

EgoPolice: A Benchmark for Egocentric Video Understanding in High-Stakes Police Body-Worn Camera Footage

We introduce EgoPolice, a carefully curated dataset of real, egocentric police-civilian interactions, sourced from publicly available body-worn camera videos. We select police-civilian action labels that are critical for police behavioral research and annotate them at a second-by-second granularity. The videos feature rapid and irregular camera motion, dense human interactions, and rare high-stakes events, making the dataset a challenging benchmark for motion-robust and context-aware egocentric perception. We provide two different tasks, classification and multiple-choice question-answering, and benchmark both open-source and closed-source models. We find that even the best video models like Gemini 2.5 Pro still struggle to accurately predict high-risk actions such as "Weapon Out". Beyond serving as a benchmark, EgoPolice provides a foundation for developing models capable of identifying events of interest in large-scale body-worn camera video repositories, enabling more efficient downstream human review.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2025

A Response to Recent Critiques of Hainmueller, Mummolo and Xu (2019) on Estimating Conditional Relationships

Simonsohn (2024a) and Simonsohn (2024b) critique Hainmueller, Mummolo and Xu (2019, HMX), arguing that failing to model nonlinear relationships between the treatment and moderator leads to biased marginal effect estimates and uncontrolled Type-I error rates. While these critiques highlight the issue of under-modeling nonlinearity in applied research, they are fundamentally flawed in several key ways. First, the causal estimand for interaction effects and the necessary identifying assumptions are not clearly defined in these critiques. Once properly stated, the critiques no longer hold. Second, the kernel estimator HMX proposes recovers the true causal effects in the scenarios presented in these recent critiques, which compared effects to the wrong benchmark, producing misleading conclusions. Third, while Generalized Additive Models (GAM) can be a useful exploratory tool (as acknowledged in HMX), they are not designed to estimate marginal effects, and better alternatives exist, particularly in the presence of additional covariates. Our response aims to clarify these misconceptions and provide updated recommendations for researchers studying interaction effects through the estimation of conditional marginal effects.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2021

An Automated Approach to Causal Inference in Discrete Settings

When causal quantities cannot be point identified, researchers often pursue partial identification to quantify the range of possible values. However, the peculiarities of applied research conditions can make this analytically intractable. We present a general and automated approach to causal inference in discrete settings. We show causal questions with discrete data reduce to polynomial programming problems, and we present an algorithm to automatically bound causal effects using efficient dual relaxation and spatial branch-and-bound techniques. The user declares an estimand, states assumptions, and provides data (however incomplete or mismeasured). The algorithm then searches over admissible data-generating processes and outputs the most precise possible range consistent with available information -- i.e., sharp bounds -- including a point-identified solution if one exists. Because this search can be computationally intensive, our procedure reports and continually refines non-sharp ranges that are guaranteed to contain the truth at all times, even when the algorithm is not run to completion. Moreover, it offers an additional guarantee we refer to as $\epsilon$-sharpness, characterizing the worst-case looseness of the incomplete bounds. Analytically validated simulations show the algorithm accommodates classic obstacles, including confounding, selection, measurement error, noncompliance, and nonresponse.

stat.ME↗