arXiv subjects

Jonathan P. Williams

Publications and source records attributed to Jonathan P. Williams.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Disk survey in the Serpens star-forming region: Environmental effects in nearby star-forming regions

The external environment where protoplanetary disks are embedded regulates disk evolution. External irradiation, which heats and evaporates gas, as well as frequent stellar encounters, which truncate disks, can reduce disk sizes and masses. Disk surveys in nearby star-forming regions with various environments can help us understand how external environments impact disk evolution. The Serpens star-forming region, which is thought to be dense but not highly irradiated by massive stars, is an ideal laboratory to study the dynamical effects on disk properties. We aim to study how dynamical interactions modify disk dust masses by comparing Serpens with other nearby star-forming regions through their disk masses and 3D stellar densities. We survey 321 young stellar objects from Class I to III in Serpens using ALMA at 0.25 arcsec. We measure disk dust masses from millimeter observations under the optically thin assumption and recompute the 3D stellar density using Gaia data. We apply the same method to other nearby star-forming regions for direct comparison with Serpens. The cumulative disk dust mass distribution of Serpens is similar to those of similarly aged nearby star-forming regions, such as Lupus and Taurus. Along with re-assessment of the 3D stellar density, it suggests that Serpens is not likely to have experienced strong tidal truncation capable of producing lower disk dust masses. We also find that the low disk dust mass tension in Ophiuchus and Corona Australis can be resolved when only disks that have been explicitly identified as members of young (1-2 Myr) sub-clusters are considered. Disks without Gaia identifications, especially in Ophiuchus, are spatially clustered in the 2D projected sky plane and less massive than nearby disks with Gaia identifications, possibly tracing the effects of tidal truncation in denser environments at earlier evolutionary stages.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2026

Early Planet Formation in Embedded Disks (eDisk). XXIV: Systematic Investigation of Disk Structures based on Visibility Analysis

The dust continuum emission from young protostellar disks encodes key information about their mass distribution and early evolution, yet uniform high-resolution comparative studies remain limited. We present a systematic uv-plane analysis of parametric intensity models applied to ALMA Band-6 (1.3 mm) observations of 23 disks (19 protostellar systems with 4 being in binary) from the eDisk sample, spanning Gaussian profiles to power-law cores with exponential tails (PLCT), including asymmetric extensions. Gaussian models generally fail to reproduce the centrally peaked emission and extended outer structure observed in most disks, whereas the PLCT framework provides a significantly improved description of radial brightness profiles. Incorporating azimuthal asymmetries further reduces residuals in 15 of 17 inclined disks, indicating that departures from axisymmetry are common at early stages. Only two disks, L1489 IRS and Oph IRS63, exhibit clear gap and ring substructures, while most appear smooth at the spatial resolution and sensitivity of our observations. These systems are among the most evolved in the sample, and the absence of flat-spectrum sources limits the evolutionary range probed, {suggesting that the detection of prominent gaps and rings is not common} in the earliest phases of disk evolution. Using a uniform definition of disk radius based on the 95\% enclosed flux, we find a positive correlation with stellar mass, $R_{\rm disk} \propto M_{\star}^{1.5 \pm 0.1}$, with disks in binary systems systematically smaller than those around isolated protostars. While the models capture overall morphology and large-scale asymmetries, distinguishing intrinsic structures from radiative transfer effects in optically thick regions remains challenging.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2026

Induction and the rule of succession through a possibilistic inferential model lens

Induction is the process by which empirical evidence is transformed to knowledge. Hume famously argued---and Popper and others agree---that there can be no logical justification for induction. A weaker form of induction, due to Bayes, expresses the aforementioned knowledge in terms of probabilities, and we review some well-known and not-so-well-known criticisms of the Bayesian solution. We then investigate the relatively new possibilistic inferential model (IM) framework, showing that, in addition to the IM's strong, statistical reliability guarantees that it uniquely enjoys, it is safe from those criticisms that damage the Bayesian foundations. For illustration, we reconsider the classical sunrise problem and compare our proposed solution with Laplace's famous rule of succession.

math.ST↗

arXiv2026

Universal Inference for model selection on networks

Model selection and hypothesis testing are important tasks on networks. A key challenge lies in the inherent dependence in network data, as well as the fact that typically only a single realization is observed. As a result, many existing methods must be carefully tailored to specific models and only come with asymptotic theoretical guarantees. In this work, however, we propose a general model selection framework using Universal Inference, making our method widely applicable to various testing scenarios. Since Universal Inference requires two sets of data, we employ edge sampling to obtain proper networks with tractable dependence. We prove that the proposed statistic is an e-value, thus controlling the type I error rate in finite samples under nearly any hypothesis test. To our knowledge, this is the first Universal Inference-type statistic constructed from dependent splits of data as well as the first finite-sample testing guarantee for hypothesis testing on networks. We also prove that the logarithm of the test statistic diverges to positive infinity under various alternative models. On simulated and real-world networks, the proposed method performs well on tasks such as choosing the random graph model and the number of communities.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

Conflict Forecasting via Conformal Prediction for Markov Processes

Whether or not a country is at war, or experiencing escalating or deescalating levels of conflict, has massive ramifications on a country's national and foreign policy. Given a country's history of conflict, or lack thereof, future predictions about the war-status of a country are valuable information. In this paper, we present the use of conformal prediction on temporally-dependent data to obtain prediction sets of possible future conflict state-sequences. More specifically, we compare the results of conformal prediction to a likelihood-based prediction strategy when the data are assumed to come from a discrete-state Markov process. A point-prediction may not supply sufficient information because the penalty for a wrong prediction is extreme, and so we consider a machine learning alternative that gives valid uncertainty quantification and is robust to model misspecification. In the data analysis, we present real forecasts of conflict dynamics across multiple countries. Lastly, we comment on the possible limitations of existing approaches for applying conformal prediction to Markovian data, where the exchangeability assumption is violated.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

The Ophiuchus DIsc Survey Employing ALMA (ODISEA). Substructures as a function of SED Class and disc mass in 100 systems

Current high-resolution studies of protoplanetary discs are biased toward small samples of the brightest (flux > 50 mJy at 225 GHz) and largest systems. We present a complete flux-limited high-resolution study of about 100 discs from the Ophiuchus Disc Survey Employing ALMA (ODISEA), spanning fluxes of about 4-400 mJy at 225 GHz. We investigate substructures as a function of SED Class and disc mass using ALMA Band 8 continuum observations (410 GHz, 0.7 mm). The survey extends to faint discs containing as little as about 2 Earth masses of dust. Given the flux-size relation, sources with flux >= 20 mJy were observed at about 20 au resolution, while fainter sources were observed at three times higher resolution. We used the Frankenstein code to fit non-parametric models to the visibilities, achieving sub-beam resolution. We classify substructures into an evolutionary sequence linking morphology with stages of giant planet formation, from featureless discs (Stage 0) to inflection-point discs, gap-ring systems, and discs with central cavities. Despite higher optical depths, Band 8 efficiently traces substructures and recovers gaps and cavities seen at longer wavelengths with shorter integration times. Discs with dust masses above about 10 Earth masses show structures consistent with this sequence, even at modest resolution. The fraction of evolved substructures increases from 23 percent (6 of 26) in Class I sources to at least 53 percent (17 of 32) in Class II objects. In contrast, lower-mass discs rarely show such features, likely due to the steep flux-size relation and limited resolution. These results support a link between substructures in discs above about 10 Earth masses and giant planet formation, and highlight Band 8 as a powerful probe of disc substructures.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2026

JWST/MIRI Hydrocarbon and Water Absorption in the Wind of a Young Disk: Signatures of Pebble Drift and Carbon Grain Sublimation

We present JWST/MIRI-MRS observations of ISO-Oph 37, a highly inclined flat-spectrum ($\lesssim$1 Myr old) source, to investigate the chemical composition and dynamical origin of its inner-disk gas. The spectrum reveals a rich combination of molecular emission and absorption: H$_2$O, CO, and OH are detected in emission, while strong absorption is observed from CO, H$_2$O, CO$_2$, HCN, C$_2$H$_2$, and CH$_4$, with no detectable ice absorption features. LTE slab modeling of the absorption yields excitation temperatures of $T_{\rm ex}\sim400-600$ K and column densities of $\log N/{\rm cm}^{2}\sim16-19$, characteristic of warm gas located within the inner few au. The absorption lines are significantly blueshifted relative to the systemic velocity, with mid-IR lines exhibiting larger shifts than near-IR CO absorption. This velocity structure points to a velocity- and temperature-stratified molecular disk wind. In this framework, the absorption directly samples disk material lifted from the inner disk surface, preserving the chemical imprint of the wind-launching region. Along the line of sight, ISO-Oph 37 is unusually hydrocarbon-rich compared to other known absorption systems (GV Tau N and IRS 46), exhibiting high (C$_2$H$_2$+CH$_4$)/HCN, (C$_2$H$_2$+CH$_4$)/CO and H$_2$O/CO column density ratios, while the CO and HCN columns remain broadly typical. We find that these molecular ratios are best explained by enhancement of both hydrocarbons and water, driven by inward drift and sublimation of icy pebbles and by thermal processing of carbonaceous grains at the soot line. ISO-Oph 37 thus demonstrates that carbon-rich inner-disk chemistry can be established early in disk evolution and that it can be directly probed through molecular absorption in disk winds.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2026

Compact CO emission and no evidence of radial drift. ALMA observations of the faintest planet-forming disks in Lupus

A large fraction of planet-forming disks observed with ALMA show faint CO emission, often interpreted as strong CO depletion. However, faint emission may also arise from spatially unresolved disks, whose sizes are overestimated, making them appear intrinsically faint. The limited sensitivity of previous observations has prevented testing this scenario, hindering our understanding of disk evolution and planet formation. We present new ALMA Band 7 observations of 12CO (J=3-2) and 13CO (J=3-2) in 17 of the faintest disks in Lupus, aiming to assess whether compact disk structure can explain their weak CO emission. The data reach an angular resolution of 0.25arcsec (about 20 au at 160 pc) and are an order of magnitude deeper than archival observations. We apply line stacking to enhance sensitivity and compare the derived CO luminosities with physical-chemical models of compact and extended disks, also estimating gas and dust sizes. We detect both isotopologues in 10 disks, only 12CO in 4, and neither in 3. Several disks are consistent with being intrinsically compact and optically thick in both lines, providing an alternative to the CO depletion scenario. The inferred gas radii (Rco less than 40 au) support this interpretation and suggest that a significant fraction of disks may be born compact, in line with recent Class 0/I results. Gas-to-dust size ratios show no clear evidence for dust evolution, indicating these disks are not drift-dominated.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2026

Identification of physiological shock in intensive care units via Bayesian regime switching models

Detection of occult hemorrhage (i.e., internal bleeding) in patients in intensive care units (ICUs) can pose significant challenges for critical care workers. Because blood loss may not always be clinically apparent, clinicians rely on monitoring vital signs for specific trends indicative of a hemorrhage event. The inherent difficulties of diagnosing such an event can lead to late intervention by clinicians which has catastrophic consequences. Therefore, a methodology for early detection of hemorrhage has wide utility. We develop a Bayesian regime switching model (RSM) that analyzes trends in patients' vitals and labs to provide a probabilistic assessment of the underlying physiological state that a patient is in at any given time. This article is motivated by a comprehensive dataset we curated from Mayo Clinic of 33,924 real ICU patient encounters. Longitudinal response measurements are modeled as a vector autoregressive process conditional on all latent states up to the current time point, and the latent states follow a Markov process. We present a novel Bayesian sampling routine to learn the posterior probability distribution of the latent physiological states, as well as develop an approach to account for pre-ICU-admission physiological changes. A simulation and real case study illustrate the effectiveness of our approach.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2026

pintervals: an R package for model-agnostic prediction intervals

The \pkg{pintervals} package aims to provide a unified framework for constructing prediction intervals and calibrating predictions in a model-agnostic setting using set-aside calibration data. It comprises routines to construct conformal as well as parametric and bootstrapped prediction intervals from any model that outputs point predictions. Several R packages and functions already exist for constructing prediction intervals, but they often focus on specific modeling frameworks or types of predictions, or require manual customization for different models or applications. By providing a consistent interface for a variety of prediction interval construction approaches (all model-agnostic), \pkg{pintervals} allows researchers to apply and compare them across different modeling frameworks and applications.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2025

Keck Observations in the INfrared of Taurus and $\rho$ Oph Exoplanets And Ultracool dwarfs (KOINTREAU) I: A Planetary-Mass Companion and a Disk-Obscured Stellar Companion Discovered in Taurus

We present the first discoveries from Keck Observations in the INfrared of Taurus and $\rho$ Oph Exoplanets And Ultracool dwarfs (KOINTREAU), an adaptive optics imaging survey of young stars in the Taurus and $\rho$ Oph star-forming regions using the Keck infrared pyramid wavefront sensor (PyWFS). We have found two faint ($\Delta$K~7 mag), wide-separation companions to two ~3-Myr-old Taurus members. Relative astrometry for these systems show that both companions are bound to their host stars. We obtained near-infrared spectra of these companions using IRTF/SpeX (R~100) and Gemini/GNIRS (R~1000-2000), and combine these with photometry from our NIRC2 imaging, the Pan-STARRS survey, and Spitzer/IRAC archival imaging to constrain their properties. One companion, KOINTREAU-1b (at a projected separation of 690 au), has an average near-IR spectral type of M9$\pm$2, a gravity classification of VL-G, and a changing spectral type between the SpeX (M7) and GNIRS (L1) observations. We estimate this object's mass to be $10.6^{+2.5}_{-2.3}$ M$_{\rm Jup}$, making KOINTREAU-1b the fifth planetary-mass companion found in Taurus. The other companion, KOINTREAU-2b (projected separation 560 au), has a spectral type of M4.5$\pm$1 but is ~4 magnitudes underluminous relative to other Taurus stars of the same spectral type. We detect exceptionally strong He I 1.083 micron emission from this object, indicative of outflows driven by ongoing accretion, but with a conspicuous lack of accompanying H emission. We conclude that KOINTREAU-2b is a young star obscured by an edge-on disk and observed in scattered light. Finally, we derive a distortion solution for NIRC2 imaging which shows a 0.118{\deg} difference in position angle from the previous distortion solution.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2025

Calibrating Bayesian Inference

Bayesian statistics has gained popularity in psychological research due to its intuitive uncertainty quantification and convenient information-updating rules. In many applications, however, prior distributions are introduced merely as instruments to facilitate computation, rather than as representations of genuine subjective belief. Consequently, relying on standard Bayesian justifications for inferential procedures becomes conceptually ungrounded. In this paper, we recommend evaluating finite-sample performance over repeated sampling of data and parameters as an alternative justification for "pragmatic Bayes." We demonstrate a key vulnerability in the usual posterior-based inference: when analysts' chosen prior distribution mismatches the true parameter-generating process, Bayesian inference can be misleading. Given that this true process is rarely known in practice, we propose a safer alternative: calibrating Bayesian credible regions to achieve frequentist validity. This latter criterion is stronger and guarantees validity of Bayesian inference regardless of the underlying parameter-generating mechanism. To solve the calibration problem in practice, we propose a novel stochastic approximation algorithm. A Monte Carlo experiment is conducted and reported, in which we observe that uncalibrated Bayesian inference can be liberal under certain parameter-generating scenarios, whereas our calibrated solution consistently maintain validity. We also illustrate the proposed calibration procedure using a real-data example involving location-scale regression.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

Radiative Transfer Modeling of a Shadowed Protoplanetary Disk assisted by a Neural Network

We present observations and detailed modeling of a protoplanetary disk around the T Tauri star, V1098 Sco. Millimeter wavelength data from the Atacama Large Millimeter Array (ALMA) show a ring of large dust grains with a central cavity that is filled with molecular gas. Near-infrared data with the Very Large Telescope (VLT) detect the scattered starlight from the disk surface and reveal a large shadow that extends over it's entire southern half. We model the ALMA continuum and line data to determine the outer disk geometry and the central stellar mass. Using radiative transfer models, we demonstrate that a misaligned inner disk, tilted in both inclination and position angle with respect to the outer disk, can reproduce the salient scattered light features seen with the VLT. Applying an image threshold algorithm to compare disk morphologies and training a neural network on a set of high signal-to-noise models, we forward model the data and determine the inner disk geometry. We find that the rotation axes of the inner and outer disks are misaligned by 38 degrees and constrain the mass and location of a perturbing planetary or substellar companion. The technique of simulation based inference that is illustrated here is broadly applicable for radiative transfer modeling of other objects.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2025

An Improved Solution to the Two Normal Means Problem via Regularization

The many-normal-means problem is a classic example that motivates the development of many important inferential procedures in the history of statistics. In this short note, we consider a further special case of the problem, which involves only two normally distributed data points with a constraint that the pair of means are not too far apart from one another. Starting with a regularized ML estimator, we construct a novel possibilistic IM for marginal inference on one of the two means. Not only does the new IM remain valid, it is also more efficient than the standard marginal inference ignoring the a priori information about the closeness of means, as well as the partial conditioning IM solution recently proposed in Yang et al. (2023).

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

Early Planet Formation in Embedded Disks (eDisk) XXII: Keplerian disk, disk structures and jets/outflows in the Class 0 protostar IRAS 04166+2706

We present ALMA observations of the Class 0 protostar IRAS 04166+2706, obtained as part of the ALMA large program Early Planet Formation in Embedded Disks (eDisk). These observations were made in the 1.3 mm dust continuum and molecular lines at angular resolutions of $\sim 0.05''$ ($\sim 8$ au) and $\sim 0.16''$ ($\sim25$ au), respectively. The continuum emission shows a disk-like structure with a radius of $\sim22$ au. Kinematical analysis of $^{13}$CO(2-1), C$^{18}$O(2-1), H$_2$CO (3$_{0,3}$-2$_{0,2}$), CH$_3$OH (4$_2$-3$_1$) emission demonstrates that these molecular lines trace the infalling-rotating envelope and possibly a Keplerian disk, enabling us to estimate the protostar mass to be $0.15 \rm{M_\odot} < \rm{M_\star} < 0.39 M_\odot$. The dusty disk is found to exhibit a brightness asymmetry along its minor axis in the continuum emission, probably caused by a flared distribution of the dust and the high optical depth of the dust emission. In addition, the CO(2-1) and SiO(5-4) emissions show knotty and wiggling motions in the jets. Our high angular resolution observations revealed the most recent mass ejection events, which have occurred within the last $\sim 25$ years.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2025

Hypothesis testing for community structure in temporal networks using e-values

Community structure in networks naturally arises in various applications. But while the topic has received significant attention for static networks, the literature on community structure in temporally evolving networks is more scarce. In particular, there are currently no statistical methods available to test for the presence of community structure in a sequence of networks evolving over time. In this work, we propose a simple yet powerful test using e-values, an alternative to p-values that is more flexible in certain ways. Specifically, an e-value framework retains valid testing properties even after combining dependent information, a relevant feature in the context of testing temporal networks. We apply the proposed test to synthetic and real-world networks, demonstrating various features inherited from the e-value formulation and exposing some of the inherent difficulties of testing on temporal networks.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

Multi-frequency analysis of the ALMA and VLA high resolution continuum observations of the substructured disc around CI Tau. Preference for sub-mm-sized low-porosity amorphous carbon grains

(Abridged) We present high angular resolution and sensitivity ALMA 3.1 mm and VLA 9.1 mm observations of the disc around CI Tau. These new data were combined with similar-resolution archival ALMA 0.9 and 1.3 mm observations and new and archival VLA 7.1 mm, 2.0, 3.0, and 6.0 cm photometry to study the properties of dust in this system. At wavelengths <3.1 mm, CI Tau's continuum emission is very extended and highly substructured (with three gaps, four rings, and two additional gap-ring pairs identified by non-parametric visibility modelling). Instead, the VLA 9.1 mm data are dominated by a bright central component, only partially (< 50%) due to dust emission, surrounded by a marginally detected, faint, and smooth halo. We fitted the ALMA and VLA 9.1 mm data together, adopting a physical model that accounts for the effects of dust absorption and scattering. For our fiducial dust composition ("Ricci" opacities), we retrieved a flat maximum grain size distribution across the disc radius of $(7.1\pm0.8)\times10^{-2}$ cm, that we tentatively attributed to fragmentation of fragile dust or bouncing. We tested, for the first time, the dependence of our results on the adopted dust composition model to assess which mixture can best reproduce the observations. We found that the "Ricci" opacities work better than the traditionally adopted "DSHARP" ones, while graphite-rich mixtures perform significantly worse. We also show that, for our fiducial composition, the data prefer low-porosity (< 70%) grains, in contrast with claims of highly porous aggregates in younger sources, which we tentatively justified by time-dependent compaction. Our results are in line with constraints from disc population synthesis models and naturally arise from CI Tau's peculiar spectral behaviour, making this disc an ideal target for deeper cm-wavelength and dust polarisation follow-ups.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2025

Early Planet Formation in Embedded Disks (eDisk) XVII: A Compact but Structured Keplerian Disk and Large-scale Streamers Revealed in the Class I Protostellar System IRAS 04169+2702

We present high-resolution ($\sim$0.05"; 8 au) dust continuum and molecular line observations toward the Class I protostellar system IRAS 04169+2702 in the Taurus B213 region, as part of the ALMA Large Program Early Planet Formation in Embedded Disks (eDisk). The 1.3-mm dust continuum emission traces a circumstellar disk with a central depression toward the protostar. Our VLA observations of the same target reveal a single central peak dominated by the free-free emission, which coincides with the depression of the thermal dust emission. The mean spectral index of the thermal dust emission from 1.3 mm to 1.4 cm is approximately 2.8, suggestive of the presence of grains grown to millimeter or centimeter sizes in the disk. Velocity gradients along the disk major axis are seen in emission from $^{12}$CO (2-1), $^{13}$CO (2-1), and C$^{18}$O (2-1) molecular lines. The position-velocity diagrams of these lines unveil a Keplerian-rotating disk with a radius of $\sim$21 au around a 1.3 $M_{\odot}$ protostar, as well as an infalling and rotating envelope with the angular momentum conserved. In addition to the compact disk, large-scale infalling spiral structures extending up to approximately 1400 au, streamers, are discovered in C$^{18}$O (2-1), SO (6$_5$-5$_4$), and H$_2$CO (3$_{0, 3}$-2$_{0, 2}$) as well as in the 1.3-mm continuum emission. Notably, in the region closer to the protostar, the spatial coincidence of C$^{18}$O and SO may indicate the presence of a shock related to accretion through the spiral arms.

astro-ph.EP↗