arXiv subjects

Jonathan Pober

Publications and source records attributed to Jonathan Pober.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

The MegaWave Radio Surveyor

Several Decadal-level questions in astrophysics, exoplanets, astrobiology, and cosmology can be addressed only at low radio frequencies inaccessible from Earth. The MegaWave Radio Surveyor would open this largely-unexplored region of the electromagnetic spectrum with a space-based interferometer to (1)~Track the space weather of other stars; (2)~Detect magnetically-generated emission from exoplanets to probe their interiors and assess magnetic shielding of their atmospheres; (3)~Probe the Universe's evolution during the Dark Ages via the highly-redshifted HI hyperfine line; and (4)~Assess the role of cosmic rays and magnetic fields in the cosmic web. An Astrophysics Strategic Technology & Research Accelerator (ASTRA) Initiative concept, the MegaWave Radio Surveyor's science objectives respond to the Pathways to Discovery Decadal Survey and three other National Academies studies, and it would serve as a Formative Era mission in the Enduring Quests, Daring Visions roadmap. Developments in U.S. space industries enable this observatory to be realized. The MegaWave Radio Surveyor would offer a versatile, scalable, and resilient architecture capable of sensitive and simultaneous observations below 45~MHz and unprecedented angular resolution at these frequencies. The concept builds upon NASA's Sun Radio Interferometer Space Experiment (SunRISE), Star-Planet Activity Research CubeSat (SPARCS), and Lunar Surface Electromagnetics Experiment (LuSEE-Night). The MegaWave Radio Surveyor could leverage multiple elements of the Artemis program, such as access to and beyond cislunar space and communications, and there are opportunities to infuse new autonomy/AI modes for mission operations. By opening one of the last windows in the electromagnetic spectrum and pioneering space interferometry at unprecedented scales, the MegaWave Radio Surveyor would establish a transformational capability.

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arXiv2026

NIAC project report: Solar system-scale VLBI to dramatically improve cosmological distance measurements

We investigate the feasibility and scientific potential of the Cosmic Positioning System (CPS), a space mission concept enabling purely geometric distance measurements to sources at hundreds of megaparsecs by directly detecting electromagnetic wavefront curvature. CPS consists of a constellation of radio antennas distributed across the outer Solar System, operating on baselines of tens of astronomical units. By precisely timing the arrival of repeating fast radio bursts (FRBs), CPS infers source distances via trilateration -- analogous to global navigation satellite systems such as GPS but on cosmological scales. We show that CPS distance measurements could result in sub-percent constraints on the Hubble constant with even a handful of detections, whereas we predict that 10-100 FRB sources are likely visible. We evaluate dominant sources of uncertainty -- wavefront timing precision, interstellar refractive delays, spacecraft positional knowledge, and onboard clock stability -- finding these controllable at required levels using near-term technologies. Our nominal design employs five spacecraft with 8 m deployable antennas, 3-6 GHz receivers with sub-30 K system temperatures, and space-qualified atomic clocks similar to those on GPS satellites, supported by a ground network for ranging calibration and FRB alerts. Beyond cosmic expansion, CPS may enable frontier measurements in astrophysics and fundamental physics, including constraints on small-scale dark matter structure, microhertz gravitational waves (bridging pulsar timing arrays and LISA), and the outer Solar System mass distribution. The most significant viability issue concerns FRB properties at several-GHz frequencies; we recommend observational campaigns to characterize repeating FRBs in this band.

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arXiv2026

The FarView Low Frequency Radio Array on the Moon's Far Side: Science and Array Architecture

FarView is a proposed low frequency radio interferometer for deployment on the lunar far side, enabled by the Moon's radio quiet environment. Operating over 1-50 MHz inaccessible from Earth, FarView will open a new observational window and promote discovery class science in cosmology, heliophysics, Galactic and exoplanet astrophysics. The primary science is measurement of the redshifted 21 cm signal from the Cosmic Dark Ages (z=30-100), identified by the Astro2020 Decadal Survey as a priority cosmology discovery area. FarView will deliver 3D tomographic measurements and precision power spectra of neutral hydrogen in a largely linear regime, enabling tests of inflationary initial conditions, primordial non Gaussianity, dark matter properties, neutrino masses, and early dark energy. The reference design consists of 100000 crossed dipole antennas in a dense core-halo configuration spanning 200 sq km. A compact 4 km core with 83000 dipoles maximizes sensitivity to large scale cosmological modes, while 20000 halo elements extending to 14 km provide angular resolution and calibration for foreground characterization. Sensitivity forecasts indicate a 10-sigma detection of the Dark Ages 21 cm power spectrum at z=30 over five years of half duty cycle lunar night observations. An FFT-based EPIC beamformer is identified as an efficient signal processing architecture. Beyond cosmology, FarView will enable interferometric imaging of low frequency solar radio bursts, advancing space weather studies. Additional capabilities include stellar space weather observations, Galactic cosmic ray tomography via free-free absorption, and searches for auroral radio emission from exoplanet magnetospheres, a probe of exoplanet habitability. FarView represents a flagship class opportunity to establish the Moon as a platform for foundational astrophysics while delivering unique observational capabilities.

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arXiv2025

Exploring the Model Dependence of MCMC-Based 21 cm Power Spectrum Parameter Constraints

Detection and analysis of the cosmic 21 cm signal of neutral hydrogen has long been considered the most promising route towards exploration of the Epoch of Reionization (EoR). 21CMMC, a Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampler of the seminumerical simulation code 21cmFAST, has already been used in conjunction with published upper limits on the 21 cm signal from the Murchison Widefield Array, the Low Frequency Array, and the Hydrogen Epoch of Reionization Array to constrain the astrophysics of the EoR. Here, we investigate the extent to which analysis of the EoR performed using 21CMMC is dependent on the underlying seminumerical model. We used 21cmFAST to simulate two datasets of 21 cm light-cones that differ only in the algorithm used to identify ionized regions (the so-called "bubble-finding" algorithm). We then tested 21CMMC's ability to return key astrophysical parameteres when using the different bubble-finding algorithms. We find that the performance of 21CMMC depends sensitively on the agreement between the astrophysical model of our mock data and the model used for sampling. This result has important implications for the analysis of the 21 cm signal performed using 21CMMC and further motivates investigation into model-independent analysis techniques for 21 cm EoR data.

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arXiv2024

21cmSense v2: A modular, open-source 21cm sensitivity calculator

The 21cm line of neutral hydrogen is a powerful probe of the high-redshift universe (Cosmic Dawn and the Epoch of Reionization), with an unprecedented potential to inform us about key processes of early galaxy formation, the first stars and even cosmology and structure formation, via intensity mapping. It is the subject of a number of current and upcoming low-frequency radio experiments. This paper presents 21cmSense v2.0, which is a Python package that provides a modular framework for calculating the sensitivity of these experiments, in order to enhance the process of their design and forecasting their power for parameter inference. Version 2.0 of 21cmSense has been re-written from the ground up to be more modular and extensible than its venerable predecessor (Pober et al., 2013, 2014), and to provide a more user-friendly interface. The package is freely available both to use and contribute towards at https://github.com/rasg-affiliates/21cmSense.

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arXiv2024

FarView: An In-Situ Manufactured Lunar Far Side Radio Array Concept for 21-cm Dark Ages Cosmology

FarView is an early-stage concept for a large, low-frequency radio observatory, manufactured in-situ on the lunar far side using metals extracted from the lunar regolith. It consists of 100,000 dipole antennas in compact subarrays distributed over a large area but with empty space between subarrays in a core-halo structure. FarView covers a total area of ~200 km2, has a dense core within the inner ~36 km2, and a ~power-law falloff of antenna density out to ~14 km from the center. With this design, it is relatively easy to identify multiple viable build sites on the lunar far side. The science case for FarView emphasizes the unique capabilities to probe the unexplored Cosmic Dark Ages - identified by the 2020 Astrophysics Decadal Survey as the discovery area for cosmology. FarView will deliver power spectra and tomographic maps tracing the evolution of the Universe from before the birth of the first stars to the beginning of Cosmic Dawn, and potentially provide unique insights into dark matter, early dark energy, neutrino masses, and the physics of inflation. What makes FarView feasible and affordable in the timeframe of the 2030s is that it is manufactured in-situ, utilizing space industrial technologies. This in-situ manufacturing architecture utilizes Earth-built equipment that is transported to the lunar surface to extract metals from the regolith and will use those metals to manufacture most of the array components: dipole antennas, power lines, and silicon solar cell power systems. This approach also enables a long functional lifetime, by permitting servicing and repair of the observatory. The full 100,000 dipole FarView observatory will take 4 - 8 years to build, depending on the realized performance of the manufacturing elements and the lunar delivery scenario.

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arXiv2022

The Statistics of Negative Power Spectrum Systematics in some 21 cm Analyses

Through a very careful analysis Kolopanis and collaborators identified a negative power spectrum (PS) systematic. The 21 cm cosmology community has assumed that any observational systematics would add power, as negative PS are non-physical. In addition to the mystery of their origin, negative PS systematics raise the spectre of artificially lowering upper limits on the 21 cm PS. It appears that the source of the negative PS systematics is a subtle interaction between choices in how the PS estimate is calculated and baseline-dependent systematic power. In this paper we present a statistical model of baseline dependent systematics to explore how negative PS systematics can appear and their statistical characteristics. This leads us to recommendations on when and how to consider negative PS systematics when reporting observational 21 cm cosmology upper limits.

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arXiv2022

New EoR Power Spectrum Limits From MWA Phase II Using the Delay Spectrum Method and Novel Systematic Rejection

We present an analysis of Epoch of Reionization data from Phase II of the Murchison Widefield Array using the \texttt{simpleDS} delay spectrum pipeline. Prior work analyzed the same observations using the FHD/$\varepsilon$ppsilon imaging pipeline, and so the present analysis represents the first time that both principal types of 21 cm cosmology power spectrum estimation approaches have been applied to the same data set. Our limits on the 21 cm power spectrum amplitude span a range in $k$ space of $|k| < 1~h_{100}{\rm Mpc}^{-1}$ with a lowest measurement of $\Delta^2(k) \leq$ $4.58\times10^3$ mK$^2$ at $k = 0.190 h_{100}\rm{Mpc}^{-1}$ and $z = 7.14$. In order to achieve these limits, we need to mitigate a previously unidentified common mode systematic in the data set. If not accounted for, this systematic introduces an overall \emph{negative} bias that can make foreground contaminated measurements appear as stringent, noise-limited constraints on the 21 cm signal amplitude. The identification of this systematic highlights the risk in modeling systematics as positive-definite contributions to the power spectrum and in ``conservatively'' interpreting all measurements as upper limits.

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arXiv2021

HERA Phase I Limits on the Cosmic 21-cm Signal: Constraints on Astrophysics and Cosmology During the Epoch of Reionization

Recently, the Hydrogen Epoch of Reionization Array (HERA) collaboration has produced the experiment's first upper limits on the power spectrum of 21-cm fluctuations at z~8 and 10. Here, we use several independent theoretical models to infer constraints on the intergalactic medium (IGM) and galaxies during the epoch of reionization (EoR) from these limits. We find that the IGM must have been heated above the adiabatic cooling threshold by z~8, independent of uncertainties about the IGM ionization state and the nature of the radio background. Combining HERA limits with galaxy and EoR observations constrains the spin temperature of the z~8 neutral IGM to 27 K < T_S < 630 K (2.3 K < T_S < 640 K) at 68% (95%) confidence. They therefore also place a lower bound on X-ray heating, a previously unconstrained aspects of early galaxies. For example, if the CMB dominates the z~8 radio background, the new HERA limits imply that the first galaxies produced X-rays more efficiently than local ones (with soft band X-ray luminosities per star formation rate constrained to L_X/SFR = { 10^40.2, 10^41.9 } erg/s/(M_sun/yr) at 68% confidence), consistent with expectations of X-ray binaries in low-metallicity environments. The z~10 limits require even earlier heating if dark-matter interactions (e.g., through millicharges) cool down the hydrogen gas. Using a model in which an extra radio background is produced by galaxies, we rule out (at 95% confidence) the combination of high radio and low X-ray luminosities of L_{r,\nu}/SFR > 3.9 x 10^24 W/Hz/(M_sun/yr) and L_X/SFR<10^40 erg/s/(M_sun/yr). The new HERA upper limits neither support nor disfavor a cosmological interpretation of the recent EDGES detection. The analysis framework described here provides a foundation for the interpretation of future HERA results.

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arXiv2021

A Lunar Farside Low Radio Frequency Array for Dark Ages 21-cm Cosmology

An array of low-frequency dipole antennas on the lunar farside surface will probe a unique, unexplored epoch in the early Universe called the Dark Ages. It begins at Recombination when neutral hydrogen atoms formed, first revealed by the cosmic microwave background. This epoch is free of stars and astrophysics, so it is ideal to investigate high energy particle processes including dark matter, early Dark Energy, neutrinos, and cosmic strings. A NASA-funded study investigated the design of the instrument and the deployment strategy from a lander of 128 pairs of antenna dipoles across a 10 kmx10 km area on the lunar surface. The antenna nodes are tethered to the lander for central data processing, power, and data transmission to a relay satellite. The array, named FARSIDE, would provide the capability to image the entire sky in 1400 channels spanning frequencies from 100 kHz to 40 MHz, extending down two orders of magnitude below bands accessible to ground-based radio astronomy. The lunar farside can simultaneously provide isolation from terrestrial radio frequency interference, the Earth's auroral kilometric radiation, and plasma noise from the solar wind. It is thus the only location within the inner solar system from which sky noise limited observations can be carried out at sub-MHz frequencies. Through precision calibration via an orbiting beacon and exquisite foreground characterization, the farside array would measure the Dark Ages global 21-cm signal at redshifts z~35-200. It will also be a pathfinder for a larger 21-cm power spectrum instrument by carefully measuring the foreground with high dynamic range.

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arXiv2019

NASA Probe Study Report: Farside Array for Radio Science Investigations of the Dark ages and Exoplanets (FARSIDE)

This is the final report submitted to NASA for a Probe-class concept study of the "Farside Array for Radio Science Investigations of the Dark ages and Exoplanets" (FARSIDE), a low radio frequency interferometric array on the farside of the Moon. The design study focused on the instrument, a deployment rover, the lander and base station, and delivered an architecture broadly consistent with the requirements for a Probe mission. This notional architecture consists of 128 dipole antennas deployed across a 10 km area by a rover, and tethered to a base station for central processing, power and data transmission to the Lunar Gateway, or an alternative relay satellite. FARSIDE would provide the capability to image the entire sky each minute in 1400 channels spanning frequencies from 150 kHz to 40 MHz, extending down two orders of magnitude below bands accessible to ground-based radio astronomy. The lunar farside can simultaneously provide isolation from terrestrial radio frequency interference, auroral kilometric radiation, and plasma noise from the solar wind. This would enable near-continuous monitoring of the nearest stellar systems in the search for the radio signatures of coronal mass ejections and energetic particle events, and would also detect the magnetospheres for the nearest candidate habitable exoplanets. Simultaneously, FARSIDE would be used to characterize similar activity in our own solar system, from the Sun to the outer planets. Through precision calibration via an orbiting beacon, and exquisite foreground characterization, FARSIDE would also measure the Dark Ages global 21-cm signal at redshifts from 50-100. It will also be a pathfinder for a larger 21-cm power spectrum instrument by carefully measuring the foreground with high dynamic range.

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arXiv2019

Astro2020 Science White Paper: Synergies Between Galaxy Surveys and Reionization Measurements

The early phases of galaxy formation constitute one of the most exciting frontiers in astrophysics. It is during this era that the first luminous sources reionize the intergalactic medium - the moment when structure formation affects every baryon in the Universe. Here we argue that we will obtain a complete picture of this era by combining observations of galaxies with direct measurements of the reionization process: the former will provide a detailed understanding of bright sources, while the latter will constrain the (substantial) faint source population. We further describe how optimizing the comparison of these two measurements requires near-infrared galaxy surveys covering large volumes and retaining redshift information and also improvements in 21-cm analysis, moving those experiments into the imaging regime.

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arXiv2019

Astro2020 Science White Paper: Insights Into the Epoch of Reionization with the Highly-Redshifted 21-cm Line

The epoch of reionization, when photons from early galaxies ionized the intergalactic medium about a billion years after the Big Bang, is the last major phase transition in the Universe's history. Measuring the characteristics of the transition is important for understanding early galaxies and the cosmic web and for modeling dwarf galaxies in the later Universe. But such measurements require probes of the intergalactic medium itself. Here we describe how the 21-cm line of neutral hydrogen provides a powerful probe of the reionization process and therefore important constraints on both the galaxies and intergalactic absorbers at that time. While existing experiments will make precise statistical measurements over the next decade, we argue that improved 21-cm analysis techniques - allowing imaging of the neutral gas itself - as well as improved theoretical models, are crucial for testing our understanding of this important era.

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arXiv2019

Astro2020 Science White Paper: First Stars and Black Holes at Cosmic Dawn with Redshifted 21-cm Observations

The "cosmic dawn" refers to the period of the Universe's history when stars and black holes first formed and began heating and ionizing hydrogen in the intergalactic medium (IGM). Though exceedingly difficult to detect directly, the first stars and black holes can be constrained indirectly through measurements of the cosmic 21-cm background, which traces the ionization state and temperature of intergalactic hydrogen gas. In this white paper, we focus on the science case for such observations, in particular those targeting redshifts z $\gtrsim$ 10 when the IGM is expected to be mostly neutral. 21-cm observations provide a unique window into this epoch and are thus critical to advancing first star and black hole science in the next decade.

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arXiv2019

Cosmology with the Highly Redshifted 21cm Line

In addition to being a probe of Cosmic Dawn and Epoch of Reionization astrophysics, the 21cm line at $z>6$ is also a powerful way to constrain cosmology. Its power derives from several unique capabilities. First, the 21cm line is sensitive to energy injections into the intergalactic medium at high redshifts. It also increases the number of measurable modes compared to existing cosmological probes by orders of magnitude. Many of these modes are on smaller scales than are accessible via the CMB, and moreover have the advantage of being firmly in the linear regime (making them easy to model theoretically). Finally, the 21cm line provides access to redshifts prior to the formation of luminous objects. Together, these features of 21cm cosmology at $z>6$ provide multiple pathways toward precise cosmological constraints. These include the "marginalizing out" of astrophysical effects, the utilization of redshift space distortions, the breaking of CMB degeneracies, the identification of signatures of relative velocities between baryons and dark matter, and the discovery of unexpected signs of physics beyond the $\Lambda$CDM paradigm at high redshifts.

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arXiv2019

Mapping Cosmic Dawn and Reionization: Challenges and Synergies

Cosmic dawn and the Epoch of Reionization (EoR) are among the least explored observational eras in cosmology: a time at which the first galaxies and supermassive black holes formed and reionized the cold, neutral Universe of the post-recombination era. With current instruments, only a handful of the brightest galaxies and quasars from that time are detectable as individual objects, due to their extreme distances. Fortunately, a multitude of multi-wavelength intensity mapping measurements, ranging from the redshifted 21 cm background in the radio to the unresolved X-ray background, contain a plethora of synergistic information about this elusive era. The coming decade will likely see direct detections of inhomogenous reionization with CMB and 21 cm observations, and a slew of other probes covering overlapping areas and complementary physical processes will provide crucial additional information and cross-validation. To maximize scientific discovery and return on investment, coordinated survey planning and joint data analysis should be a high priority, closely coupled to computational models and theoretical predictions.

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arXiv2018

Fundamental Limitations on the Calibration of Redundant 21 cm Cosmology Instruments and Implications for HERA and the SKA

Precise instrument calibration is critical to the success of 21 cm Cosmology experiments. Unmitigated errors in calibration contaminate the Epoch of Reionization (EoR) signal, precluding a detection. Barry et al. 2016 characterizes one class of inherent errors that emerge from calibrating to an incomplete sky model, however it has been unclear if errors in the sky model affect the calibration of redundant arrays. In this paper, we show that redundant calibration is vulnerable to errors from sky model incompleteness even in the limit of perfect antenna positioning and identical beams. These errors are at a level that can overwhelm the EoR signal and prevent a detection. Finally, we suggest error mitigation strategies with implications for the Hydrogen Epoch of Reionization Array (HERA) and the Square Kilometre Array (SKA).

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arXiv2018

Understanding the Diversity of 21 cm Cosmology Analyses

21 cm power spectrum observations have the potential to revolutionize our understanding of the Epoch of Reionization and Dark Energy, but require extraordinarily precise data analysis methods to separate the cosmological signal from the astrophysical and instrumental contaminants. This analysis challenge has led to a diversity of proposed analyses, including delay spectra, imaging power spectra, m-mode analysis, and numerous others. This diversity of approach is a strength, but has also led to confusion within the community about whether insights gleaned by one group are applicable to teams working in different analysis frameworks. In this paper we show that all existing analysis proposals can be classified into two distinct families based on whether they estimate the power spectrum of the measured or reconstructed sky. This subtle difference in the statistical question posed largely determines the susceptibility of the analyses to foreground emission and calibration errors, and ultimately the science different analyses can pursue. In this paper we detail the origin of the two analysis families, categorize the analyses being actively developed, and explore their relative sensitivities to foreground contamination and calibration errors.

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