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Jonathan R. Gair

Publications and source records attributed to Jonathan R. Gair.

At least 91 records · Page 5Linked to original sources
arXiv2011

Intermediate-mass-ratio-inspirals in the Einstein Telescope: I. Signal-to-noise ratio calculations

The Einstein Telescope (ET) is a proposed third generation ground-based interferometer, for which the target is a sensitivity that is a factor of ten better than Advanced LIGO and a frequency range that extends down to about 1Hz. ET will provide opportunities to test Einstein's theory of relativity in the strong field and will realize precision gravitational wave astronomy with a thousandfold increase in the expected number of events over the advanced ground-based detectors. A design study for ET is currently underway, so it is timely to assess the science that could be done with such an instrument. This paper is the first in a series that will carry out a detailed study of intermediate-mass-ratio inspirals (IMRIs) for ET. In the context of ET, an IMRI is the inspiral of a neutron star or stellar-mass black hole into an intermediate mass black hole (IMBH). In this paper we focus on the development of IMRI waveform models for circular and equatorial inspirals. We consider two approximations for the waveforms, which both incorporate the inspiral, merger and ringdown phases in a consistent way. One approximation, valid for IMBHs of arbitrary spin, uses the transition model of Ori and Thorne [1] to describe the merger, and this is then matched smoothly onto a ringdown waveform. The second approximation uses the Effective One Body (EOB) approach to model the merger phase of the waveform and is valid for non-spinning IMBHs. In this paper, we use both waveform models to compute signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs) for IMRI sources detectable by ET. At a redshift of z=1, we find typical SNRs for IMRI systems with masses 1.4+100 solar masses, 10+100 solar masses, 1.4+500 solar masses and 10+500 solar masses of about 10-25, 40-80, 3-15 and 10-60, respectively. We also find that the two models make predictions for non-spinning inspirals that are consistent to about ten percent.

gr-qc↗
arXiv2011

Intermediate-mass-ratio-inspirals in the Einstein Telescope. II. Parameter estimation errors

We explore the precision with which the Einstein Telescope (ET) will be able to measure the parameters of intermediate-mass-ratio inspirals (IMRIs). We calculate the parameter estimation errors using the Fisher Matrix formalism and present results of a Monte Carlo simulation of these errors over choices for the extrinsic parameters of the source. These results are obtained using two different models for the gravitational waveform which were introduced in paper I of this series. These two waveform models include the inspiral, merger and ringdown phases in a consistent way. One of the models, based on the transition scheme of Ori & Thorne [1], is valid for IMBHs of arbitrary spin, whereas the second model, based on the Effective One Body (EOB) approach, has been developed to cross-check our results in the non-spinning limit. In paper I of this series, we demonstrated the excellent agreement in both phase and amplitude between these two models for non-spinning black holes, and that their predictions for signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs) are consistent to within ten percent. We now use these models to estimate parameter estimation errors for binary systems with masses 1.4+100, 10+100, 1.4+500 and 10+500 solar masses (SMs), and various choices for the spin of the central intermediate-mass black hole (IMBH). Assuming a detector network of three ETs, the analysis shows that for a 10 SM compact object (CO) inspiralling into a 100 SM IMBH with spin q=0.3, detected with an SNR of 30, we should be able to determine the CO and IMBH masses, and the IMBH spin magnitude to fractional accuracies of 0.001, 0.0003, and 0.001, respectively. We also expect to determine the location of the source in the sky and the luminosity distance to within 0.003 steradians, and 10%, respectively. We also assess how the precision of parameter determination depends on the network configuration.

gr-qc↗
arXiv2010

Reconstructing the massive black hole cosmic history through gravitational waves

The massive black holes we observe in galaxies today are the natural end-product of a complex evolutionary path, in which black holes seeded in proto-galaxies at high redshift grow through cosmic history via a sequence of mergers and accretion episodes. Electromagnetic observations probe a small subset of the population of massive black holes (namely, those that are active or those that are very close to us), but planned space-based gravitational-wave observatories such as the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) can measure the parameters of ``electromagnetically invisible'' massive black holes out to high redshift. In this paper we introduce a Bayesian framework to analyze the information that can be gathered from a set of such measurements. Our goal is to connect a set of massive black hole binary merger observations to the underlying model of massive black hole formation. In other words, given a set of observed massive black hole coalescences, we assess what information can be extracted about the underlying massive black hole population model. For concreteness we consider ten specific models of massive black hole formation, chosen to probe four important (and largely unconstrained) aspects of the input physics used in structure formation simulations: seed formation, metallicity ``feedback'', accretion efficiency and accretion geometry. For the first time we allow for the possibility of ``model mixing'', by drawing the observed population from some combination of the ``pure'' models that have been simulated. A Bayesian analysis allows us to recover a posterior probability distribution for the ``mixing parameters'' that characterize the fractions of each model represented in the observed distribution. Our work shows that LISA has enormous potential to probe the underlying physics of structure formation.

astro-ph.CO↗
arXiv2010

Gravitational wave energy spectrum of a parabolic encounter

We derive an analytic expression for the energy spectrum of gravitational waves from a parabolic Keplerian binary by taking the limit of the Peters and Matthews spectrum for eccentric orbits. This demonstrates that the location of the peak of the energy spectrum depends primarily on the orbital periapse rather than the eccentricity. We compare this weak-field result to strong-field calculations and find it is reasonably accurate (~10%) provided that the azimuthal and radial orbital frequencies do not differ by more than ~10%. For equatorial orbits in the Kerr spacetime, this corresponds to periapse radii of rp > 20M. These results can be used to model radiation bursts from compact objects on highly eccentric orbits about massive black holes in the local Universe, which could be detected by LISA.

gr-qc↗
arXiv2010

Reducing distance errors for standard candles and standard sirens with weak-lensing shear and flexion maps

Gravitational lensing induces significant errors in the measured distances to high-redshift standard candles and standard sirens such as type-Ia supernovae, gamma-ray bursts, and merging supermassive black hole binaries. There will therefore be a significant benefit from correcting for the lensing error by using independent and accurate estimates of the lensing magnification. We investigate how accurately the magnification can be inferred from convergence maps reconstructed from galaxy shear and flexion data. We employ ray-tracing through the Millennium Simulation to simulate lensing observations in large fields, and perform a weak-lensing reconstruction on these fields. We identify optimal ways to filter the reconstructed convergence maps and to convert them to magnification maps. We find that a shear survey with 100 galaxies/arcmin^2 can help to reduce the lensing-induced distance errors for standard candles/sirens at redshifts z=1.5 (z=5) on average by 20% (10%), whereas a futuristic survey with shear and flexion estimates from 500 galaxies/arcmin^2 yields much larger reductions of 50% (35%). For redshifts z>=3, a further improvement by 5% can be achieved, if the individual redshifts of the galaxies are used in the reconstruction. Moreover, the reconstruction allows one to identify regions for which the convergence is low, and in which an error reduction by up to 75% can be achieved.

astro-ph.CO↗
arXiv2010

LISA extreme-mass-ratio inspiral events as probes of the black hole mass function

One of the sources of gravitational waves for the proposed space-based gravitational wave detector, the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA), are the inspirals of compact objects into supermassive black holes in the centres of galaxies - extreme-mass-ratio inspirals (EMRIs). Using LISA observations, we will be able to measure the parameters of each EMRI system detected to very high precision. However, the statistics of the set of EMRI events observed by LISA will be more important in constraining astrophysical models than extremely precise measurements for individual systems. The black holes to which LISA is most sensitive are in a mass range that is difficult to probe using other techniques, so LISA provides an almost unique window onto these objects. In this paper we explore, using Bayesian techniques, the constraints that LISA EMRI observations can place on the mass function of black holes at low redshift. We describe a general framework for approaching inference of this type --- using multiple observations in combination to constrain a parameterised source population. Assuming that the scaling of EMRI rate with black hole mass is known and taking a black hole distribution given by a simple power law, dn/d(ln M) = A (M/M_*)^b, we find that LISA could measure the parameters to a precision of D(ln A) ~ 0.08, and D(b) ~ 0.03 for a reference model that predicts ~1000 events. Even with as few as 10 events, LISA should constrain the slope to a precision ~0.3, which is the current level of observational uncertainty in the low-mass slope of the black hole mass function. We also consider a model in which A and b evolve with redshift, but find that EMRI observations alone do not have much power to probe such an evolution.

astro-ph.GA↗
arXiv2010

Exploring intermediate and massive black-hole binaries with the Einstein Telescope

We discuss the capability of a third-generation ground-based detector such as the Einstein Telescope (ET) to enhance our astrophysical knowledge through detections of gravitational waves emitted by binaries including intermediate-mass and massive black holes. The design target for such instruments calls for improved sensitivity at low frequencies, specifically in the ~ 1-10 Hz range. This will allow the detection of gravitational waves generated in binary systems containing black holes of intermediate mass, ~ 100-1000 solar masses. We primarily discuss two different source types -- mergers between two intermediate mass black holes (IMBHs) of comparable mass, and intermediate-mass-ratio inspirals (IMRIs) of smaller compact objects with mass ~ 1-10 solar masses into IMBHs. IMBHs may form via two channels: (i) in dark matter halos at high redshift through direct collapse or the collapse of very massive metal-poor Population III stars, or (ii) via runaway stellar collisions in globular clusters. In this paper, we will discuss both formation channels, and both classes of merger in each case. We review existing rate estimates where these exist in the literature, and provide some new calculations for the approximate numbers of events that will be seen by a detector like the Einstein Telescope. These results indicate that the ET may see a few to a few thousand comparable-mass IMBH mergers and as many as several hundred IMRI events per year. These observations will significantly enhance our understanding of galactic black-hole growth, of the existence and properties of IMBHs and of the astrophysics of globular clusters. We finish our review with a discussion of some more speculative sources of gravitational waves for the ET, including hypermassive white dwarfs and eccentric stellar-mass compact-object binaries.

astro-ph.CO↗
arXiv2010

Classifying LISA gravitational wave burst signals using Bayesian evidence

We consider the problem of characterisation of burst sources detected with the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) using the multi-modal nested sampling algorithm, MultiNest. We use MultiNest as a tool to search for modelled bursts from cosmic string cusps, and compute the Bayesian evidence associated with the cosmic string model. As an alternative burst model, we consider sine-Gaussian burst signals, and show how the evidence ratio can be used to choose between these two alternatives. We present results from an application of MultiNest to the last round of the Mock LISA Data Challenge, in which we were able to successfully detect and characterise all three of the cosmic string burst sources present in the release data set. We also present results of independent trials and show that MultiNest can detect cosmic string signals with signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) as low as ~7 and sine-Gaussian signals with SNR as low as ~8. In both cases, we show that the threshold at which the sources become detectable coincides with the SNR at which the evidence ratio begins to favour the correct model over the alternative.

gr-qc↗
arXiv2010

The Mock LISA Data Challenges: from Challenge 3 to Challenge 4

The Mock LISA Data Challenges are a program to demonstrate LISA data-analysis capabilities and to encourage their development. Each round of challenges consists of one or more datasets containing simulated instrument noise and gravitational waves from sources of undisclosed parameters. Participants analyze the datasets and report best-fit solutions for the source parameters. Here we present the results of the third challenge, issued in Apr 2008, which demonstrated the positive recovery of signals from chirping Galactic binaries, from spinning supermassive--black-hole binaries (with optimal SNRs between ~ 10 and 2000), from simultaneous extreme-mass-ratio inspirals (SNRs of 10-50), from cosmic-string-cusp bursts (SNRs of 10-100), and from a relatively loud isotropic background with Omega_gw(f) ~ 10^-11, slightly below the LISA instrument noise.

gr-qc↗
arXiv2009

Use of the MultiNest algorithm for gravitational wave data analysis

We describe an application of the MultiNest algorithm to gravitational wave data analysis. MultiNest is a multimodal nested sampling algorithm designed to efficiently evaluate the Bayesian evidence and return posterior probability densities for likelihood surfaces containing multiple secondary modes. The algorithm employs a set of live points which are updated by partitioning the set into multiple overlapping ellipsoids and sampling uniformly from within them. This set of live points climbs up the likelihood surface through nested iso-likelihood contours and the evidence and posterior distributions can be recovered from the point set evolution. The algorithm is model-independent in the sense that the specific problem being tackled enters only through the likelihood computation, and does not change how the live point set is updated. In this paper, we consider the use of the algorithm for gravitational wave data analysis by searching a simulated LISA data set containing two non-spinning supermassive black hole binary signals. The algorithm is able to rapidly identify all the modes of the solution and recover the true parameters of the sources to high precision.

gr-qc↗
arXiv2009

Can we Detect Intermediate Mass Ratio Inspirals?

Gravitational waves emitted during intermediate-mass-ratio inspirals (IMRIs) of intermediate-mass black holes (IMBHs) into supermassive black holes could represent a very interesting source for LISA. Similarly, IMRIs of stellar-mass compact objects into IMBHs could be detectable by Advanced LIGO. At present, however, it is not clear what waveforms could be used for IMRI detection, since the post-Newtonian approximation breaks down as an IMRI approaches the innermost stable circular orbit, and perturbative solutions are only known to the lowest order in the mass ratio. We discuss the expected mismatches between approximate and true waveforms, and the choice of the best available waveform as a function of the mass ratio and the total mass of the system. We also comment on the significance of the spin of the smaller body and the need for its inclusion in the waveforms.

gr-qc↗
arXiv2009

Cosmic Swarms: A search for Supermassive Black Holes in the LISA data stream with a Hybrid Evolutionary Algorithm

We describe a hybrid evolutionary algorithm that can simultaneously search for multiple supermassive black hole binary (SMBHB) inspirals in LISA data. The algorithm mixes evolutionary computation, Metropolis-Hastings methods and Nested Sampling. The inspiral of SMBHBs presents an interesting problem for gravitational wave data analysis since, due to the LISA response function, the sources have a bi-modal sky solution. We show here that it is possible not only to detect multiple SMBHBs in the data stream, but also to investigate simultaneously all the various modes of the global solution. In all cases, the algorithm returns parameter determinations within $5σ$ (as estimated from the Fisher Matrix) of the true answer, for both the actual and antipodal sky solutions.

gr-qc↗
arXiv2009

Probing Stellar Dynamics in Galactic Nuclei

Electromagnetic observations over the last 15 years have yielded a growing appreciation for the importance of supermassive black holes (SMBH) to the evolution of galaxies, and for the intricacies of dynamical interactions in our own Galactic center. Here we show that future low-frequency gravitational wave observations, alone or in combination with electromagnetic data, will open up unique windows to these processes. In particular, gravitational wave detections in the 10^{-5}-10^{-1} Hz range will yield SMBH masses and spins to unprecedented precision and will provide clues to the properties of the otherwise undetectable stellar remnants expected to populate the centers of galaxies. Such observations are therefore keys to understanding the interplay between SMBHs and their environments.

astro-ph.GA↗
arXiv2009

An algorithm for detection of extreme mass ratio inspirals in LISA data

The gravitational wave signal from a compact object spiralling toward a massive black hole (MBH) is thought to be one of the most difficult sources to detect in the LISA data stream. Due to the large parameter space of possible signals and many orbital cycles spent in the sensitivity band of LISA, it has been estimated previously that of the order of 10^{35} templates would be required for a fully coherent search with a template grid, which is computationally impossible. Here we describe an algorithm based on a constrained Metropolis-Hastings stochastic search which allows us to find and accurately estimate parameters of isolated EMRI signals buried in Gaussian instrumental noise. We illustrate the effectiveness of the algorithm with results from searches of the Mock LISA Data Challenge round 1B data sets.

gr-qc↗
arXiv2008

A Constrained Metropolis-Hastings Search for EMRIs in the Mock LISA Data Challenge 1B

We describe a search for the extreme-mass-ratio inspiral sources in the Round 1B Mock LISA Data Challenge data sets. The search algorithm is a Monte-Carlo search based on the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, but also incorporates simulated, thermostated and time annealing, plus a harmonic identification stage designed to reduce the chance of the chain locking onto secondary maxima. In this paper, we focus on describing the algorithm that we have been developing. We give the results of the search of the Round 1B data, although parameter recovery has improved since that deadline. Finally, we describe several modifications to the search pipeline that we are currently investigating for incorporation in future searches.

gr-qc↗
arXiv2008

Rates and Characteristics of Intermediate Mass Ratio Inspirals Detectable by Advanced LIGO

Gravitational waves (GWs) from the inspiral of a neutron star (NS) or stellar-mass black hole (BH) into an intermediate-mass black hole (IMBH) with mass between ~50 and ~350 solar masses may be detectable by the planned advanced generation of ground-based GW interferometers. Such intermediate mass ratio inspirals (IMRIs) are most likely to be found in globular clusters. We analyze four possible IMRI formation mechanisms: (1) hardening of an NS-IMBH or BH-IMBH binary via three-body interactions, (2) hardening via Kozai resonance in a hierarchical triple system, (3) direct capture, and (4) inspiral of a compact object from a tidally captured main-sequence star; we also discuss tidal effects when the inspiraling object is an NS. For each mechanism we predict the typical eccentricities of the resulting IMRIs. We find that IMRIs will have largely circularized by the time they enter the sensitivity band of ground-based detectors. Hardening of a binary via three-body interactions, which is likely to be the dominant mechanism for IMRI formation, yields eccentricities under 10^-4 when the GW frequency reaches 10 Hz. Even among IMRIs formed via direct captures, which can have the highest eccentricities, around 90% will circularize to eccentricities under 0.1 before the GW frequency reaches 10 Hz. We estimate the rate of IMRI coalescences in globular clusters and the sensitivity of a network of three Advanced LIGO detectors to the resulting GWs. We show that this detector network may see up to tens of IMRIs per year, although rates of one to a few per year may be more plausible. We also estimate the loss in signal-to-noise ratio that will result from using circular IMRI templates for data analysis and find that, for the eccentricities we expect, this loss is negligible.

astro-ph↗
arXiv2008

Gravitational waves from intermediate-mass-ratio inspirals for ground-based detectors

We explore the prospects for Advanced LIGO to detect gravitational waves from neutron stars and stellar mass black holes spiraling into intermediate-mass ($M\sim 50 M_\odot$ to $350 M_\odot$) black holes. We estimate an event rate for such \emph{intermediate-mass-ratio inspirals} (IMRIs) of up to $\sim 10$--$30 \mathrm{yr}^{-1}$. Our numerical simulations show that if the central body is not a black hole but its metric is stationary, axisymmetric, reflection symmetric and asymptotically flat then the waves will likely be tri-periodic, as for a black hole. We report generalizations of a theorem due to Ryan (1995) which suggest that the evolutions of the waves' three fundamental frequencies and of the complex amplitudes of their spectral components encode (in principle) a full map of the central body's metric, full details of the energy and angular momentum exchange between the central body and the orbit, and the time-evolving orbital elements. We estimate that Advanced LIGO can measure or constrain deviations of the central body from a Kerr black hole with modest but interesting accuracy.

gr-qc↗