arXiv subjects

Jonathan R. Pritchard

Publications and source records attributed to Jonathan R. Pritchard.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

How X-rays heat the IGM in different 21-cm simulation codes: a comparison between Licorice and Beorn

Any interpretation of the 21-cm signal of neutral hydrogen using Bayesian inference methods can only be as accurate as the underlying simulation code used to model the state of the intergalactic medium (IGM). 3D radiative transfer (RT) simulation codes may capture complex physics, but are computationally expensive and, therefore, faster, more approximate codes have been developed. To improve our understanding of the convergence of simulation codes in the 21-cm science community, we present a comparison of the X-ray heating of the IGM modelled in Licorice, a 3D RT simulation code, and Beorn, a 1D RT code. We use Beorn to process sources extracted from Licorice simulations, using the same physics of the sources, in order to obtain two versions of the temperature of the IGM heated by X-rays. We observe a good agreement between the luminosity fields, mean temperatures, and global 21-cm signal of the two setups, but discrepancies in the distribution of temperature and 21-cm signal, which result in a $\sim 30\%$ difference in the 21-cm power spectrum. We attempt to isolate the approximations that lead to these differences and find that common approximations used in 1D RT codes produce effects of that magnitude. Using an emulator of the Licorice power spectra in an MCMC pipeline, we translate these differences between power spectra into differences between posterior distributions over the astrophysical parameters. We observe a typical bias between 1D posteriors of $\gtrsim 1 σ$ (with a noise level corresponding to 100h of SKA observations).

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2026

Optimisation of calibration sources for global 21-cm experiments: the REACH case

The spin-flip 21-cm signal from the Cosmic Dawn and the Epoch of Reionization is an essential probe of the conditions that led to the formation of the first luminous objects in the early Universe. However, its detection remains a major challenge owing to its low strength compared to the bright foregrounds and the requirement of precise calibration of the instrument to prevent systematics that could hinder a detection or lead to false inferences. REACH (Radio Experiment for the Analysis of Cosmic Hydrogen) is a radiometer experiment designed to detect this sky-averaged signal in the frequency range of 50--130~MHz. Using a wide-beam antenna, REACH calibration relies on internal reference sources, covering a broad range of temperatures and reflection coefficients. The choice of type and number of calibrators used significantly influences the quality of the calibration. This work investigates these effects and introduces a novel method for selecting an optimal set of calibration sources. With an optimised set, we aim to reduce calibration time, thereby increasing sky integration time while preserving calibration accuracy. We explore two optimisation strategies: one applied across the full receiver band and another performed on a frequency-by-frequency basis. Finally, we demonstrate that, with a total calibration time comparable to the conventional full-calibrator set, an optimised set with fewer calibrators achieves approximately a $15~\%$ reduction in calibrated temperature noise and improved absolute calibration of the instrument. This has implications for better calibration strategies in similar radiometer experiments.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2026

Simulation based inference of the ionization history from the 2D 21 cm power spectrum

The 21 cm signal contains a wealth of information about the formation of the first stars and the reionization of the intergalactic medium during the Cosmic Dawn (CD) and Epoch of Reionization (EoR). The timing of these important milestones has only roughly been constrained through indirect measurements, such as from the cosmic microwave background (CMB) optical depth, and Lyman-$α$ forest. Therefore, inferring the neutral fraction over cosmic time is a goal of upcoming 21 cm experiments, such as the Square Kilometer Array (SKA). We contrast two approaches to infer astrophysical parameters and ionization history from 21 cm 2D power spectra (2DPS). We develop an emulator of the 21 cm 2DPS, trained on 21cmFAST simulations, taking into account the expected instrumental noise from the SKA and sample variance. We then perform simulation based inference (SBI) using neural posterior estimation (NPE). We compare training on datasets of noisy 2DPS obtained from 21cmFAST simulations and an emulator, to infer astrophysical parameters of interest. Using an emulator of the ionization history, which has been trained on simulations from the same astrophysical parameters, we then obtain posterior distributions of the ionization history over the redshift range z $\sim$ 5-12. We demonstrate that both methods are capable of accurately recovering the ionization history and astrophysical parameters. However, coverage tests indicate that adding emulated samples does not improve predictions. This work suggests that due to the stochastic nature of the 2DPS, using an emulator of this summary statistic may result in poorer inference.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2025

Low multipole mapmaking for global 21-cm experiments

The 21-cm global signal is obscured by very bright galactic and extra galactic foreground emissions. Typical single-spectrum fit (SSF) based methods for foreground/signal separation can result in biased estimates of the cosmological signal due to the presence of spectral oscillations induced by the interaction between chromatic beams and the spatial shape of the foregrounds. Modelling this interaction requires some amount of assumed foreground information. We present a mapmaking-based approach which describes the beam-weighted observation of the sky by multiple globally-distributed antenna experiments as an observation equation. This equation is inverted in order to estimate the low-order sky modes ($\ell\lesssim10$). The resulting chromaticity-free sky monopole is then fit with a smooth foreground function and a 21-cm model. Given the insensitivity of global 21-cm experiments to small angular scales, we rely on the mean and covariance of higher-order foreground modes being known. We show that this mapmaking-based method is capable of inferring the cosmological signal in cases where a SSF with a simple beam-factor based chromaticity correction fails, even when the foreground model used in the mapmaking method features uncertainty at the 10\% level.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2024

Impact of the Epoch of Reionization sources on the 21-cm bispectrum

The morphology of the 21-cm signal emitted by the neutral hydrogen present in the intergalactic medium (IGM) during the Epoch of Reionization (EoR) depends both on the properties of the sources of ionizing radiation and on the underlying physical processes within the IGM. Variation in the morphology of the IGM 21-cm signal due to the different sources of the EoR is expected to have a significant impact on the 21-cm bispectrum, which is one of the crucial observable statistics that can evaluate the non-Gaussianity present in the signal and which can be estimated from radio interferometric observations of the EoR. Here we present the 21-cm bispectrum for different reionization scenarios assuming different simulated models for the sources of reionization. We also demonstrate how well the 21-cm bispectrum can distinguish between different IGM 21-cm signal morphologies, arising due to the differences in the reionization scenarios, which will help us shed light on the nature of the sources of ionizing photons. Our estimated large-scale bispectrum for all unique $k$-triangle shapes shows a significant difference in the magnitude and sign across different reionization scenarios. Additionally, our focused analysis of bispectrum for a few specific $k$-triangle shapes (e.g. squeezed-limit, linear, and shapes in the vicinity of the squeezed-limit) shows that the large scale 21-cm bispectrum can distinguish between reionization scenarios that show inside-out, outside-in and a combination of inside-out and outside-in morphologies. These results highlight the potential of using the 21-cm bispectrum for constraining different reionization scenarios.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2023

Measuring the cosmological 21-cm dipole with 21-cm global experiments

A measurement of the 21-cm global signal would be a revealing probe of the Dark Ages, the era of first star formation, and the Epoch of Reionization. It has remained elusive owing to bright galactic and extra-galactic foreground contaminants, coupled with instrumental noise, ionospheric effects, and beam chromaticity. The simultaneous detection of a consistent 21-cm dipole signal alongside the 21-cm global signal would provide confidence in a claimed detection. We use simulated data to investigate the possibility of using drift-scan dipole antenna experiments to achieve a detection of both monopole and dipole. We find that at least two antennae located at different latitudes are required to localise the dipole. In the absence of foregrounds, a total integration time of $\sim 10^4$ hours is required to detect the dipole. With contamination by simple foregrounds, we find that the integration time required increases to $\sim 10^5$ hours. We show that the extraction of the 21-cm dipole from more realistic foregrounds requires a more sophisticated foreground modelling approach. Finally, we motivate a global network of dipole antennae that could reasonably detect the dipole in $\sim 10^3$ hours of integration time.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2023

Probing IGM Physics during Cosmic Dawn using the Redshifted 21-cm Bispectrum

With the advent of the first luminous sources at Cosmic Dawn (CD), the redshifted 21-cm signal, from the neutral hydrogen in the Inter-Galactic Medium (IGM), is predicted to undergo a transition from absorption to emission against the CMB. Using simulations, we show that the redshift evolution of the sign and the magnitude of the 21-cm bispectrum can disentangle the contributions from Ly$α$ coupling and X-ray heating of the IGM, the two most dominant processes which drive this transition. This opens a new avenue to probe the first luminous sources and the IGM physics at CD.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2022

Redshifted 21-cm bispectrum: Impact of the source models on the signal and the IGM physics from the Cosmic Dawn

The radiations from the first luminous sources drive the fluctuations in the 21-cm signal at Cosmic Dawn (CD) via two dominant astrophysical processes i.e. the Ly$α$ coupling and X-ray heating, making this signal highly non-Gaussian. The impact of these processes on the 21-cm signal and its non-Gaussianity vary depending on the properties of these first sources of light. In this work, we consider different CD scenarios by varying two major source parameters i.e. the minimum halo mass $M_{\rm h,\, min}$ and X-ray photon production efficiency $f_{\rm X}$ in a 1D radiative transfer code GRIZZLY. We study the impact of variation in these source parameters on the large scale ($k_1 = 0.16 {\, \rm Mpc}^{-1}$) 21-cm bispectrum for all possible unique triangles in the Fourier domain. Our detailed and comparative analysis of the power spectrum and bispectrum shows that the shape, sign and magnitude of the bispectrum combinedly provide the best measure of the signal fluctuations and its non-Gaussianity compared to the power spectrum. We also conclude that it is important to study the sequence of sign changes along with the variations in the shape and magnitude of the bispectrum throughout the CD history to arrive at a robust conclusion about the dominant IGM processes at different cosmic times. We further observe that among all the possible unique $k$-triangles, the large-scale non-Gaussianity in signal is best probed by the small $k$-triangles in the squeezed limit and by triangles of similar shapes. This opens up the possibility of constraining the source parameters during the CD using the 21-cm bispectrum.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2021

Using the sample variance of 21cm maps as a tracer of the ionisation topology

Intensity mapping of the 21cm signal of neutral hydrogen will yield exciting insights into the Epoch of Reionisation and the nature of the first galaxies. However, the large amount of data that will be generated by the next generation of radio telescopes, such as the Square Kilometre Array (SKA), as well as the numerous observational obstacles to overcome, require analysis techniques tuned to extract the reionisation history and morphology. In this context, we introduce a one-point statistic, to which we refer as the local variance, $σ_\mathrm{loc}$, that describes the distribution of the mean differential 21cm brightness temperatures measured in two-dimensional maps along the frequency direction of a light-cone. The local variance takes advantage of what is usually considered an observational bias, the sample variance. We find the redshift-evolution of the local variance to not only probe the reionisation history of the observed patches of the sky, but also trace the ionisation morphology. This estimator provides a promising tool to constrain the midpoint of reionisation as well as gaining insight into the ionising properties of early galaxies.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2021

Redshifted 21-cm bispectrum II: Impact of the spin temperature fluctuations and redshift space distortions on the signal from the Cosmic Dawn

We present a study of the 21-cm signal bispectrum (which quantifies the non-Gaussianity in the signal) from the Cosmic Dawn (CD). For our analysis, we have simulated the 21-cm signal using radiative transfer code GRIZZLY, while considering two types of sources (mini-QSOs and HMXBs) for Ly$α$ coupling and the X-ray heating of the IGM. Using this simulated signal, we have, for the first time, estimated the CD 21-cm bispectra for all unique $k$-triangles and for a range of $k$ modes. We observe that the redshift evolution of the bispectra magnitude and sign follow a generic trend for both source models. However, the redshifts at which the bispectra magnitude reach their maximum and minimum values and show their sign reversal depends on the source model. When the Ly$α$ coupling and the X-ray heating of the IGM occur simultaneously, we observe two consecutive sign reversals in the bispectra for small $k$-triangles (irrespective of the source models). One arising at the beginning of the IGM heating and the other at the end of Ly$α$ coupling saturation. This feature can be used in principle to constrain the CD history and/or to identify the specific CD scenarios. We also quantify the impact of the spin temperature ($T_{\rm S}$) fluctuations on the bispectra. We find that $T_{\rm S}$ fluctuations have maximum impact on the bispectra magnitude for small $k$-triangles and at the stage when Ly$α$ coupling reaches saturation. Furthermore, we are also the first to quantify the impact of redshift space distortions (RSD), on the CD bispectra. We find that the impact of RSD on the CD 21-cm bispectra is significant ($> 20\%$) and the level depends on the stages of the CD and the $k$-triangles for which the bispectra are being estimated.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2020

Comparing Foreground Removal Techniques for Recovery of the LOFAR-EoR 21cm Power Spectrum

We compare various foreground removal techniques that are being utilised to remove bright foregrounds in various experiments aiming to detect the redshifted 21cm signal of neutral hydrogen from the Epoch of Reionization. In this work, we test the performance of removal techniques (FastICA, GMCA, and GPR) on 10 nights of LOFAR data and investigate the possibility of recovering the latest upper limit on the 21cm signal. Interestingly, we find that GMCA and FastICA reproduce the most recent 2$σ$ upper limit of $Δ^2_{21} <$ (73)$^2$ mK$^2$ at $k=0.075~ h \mathrm{cMpc}^{-1}$, which resulted from the application of GPR. We also find that FastICA and GMCA begin to deviate from the noise-limit at \textit{k}-scales larger than $\sim 0.1 ~h \mathrm{cMpc}^{-1}$. We then replicate the data via simulations to see the source of FastICA and GMCA's limitations, by testing them against various instrumental effects. We find that no single instrumental effect, such as primary beam effects or mode-mixing, can explain the poorer recovery by FastICA and GMCA at larger \textit{k}-scales. We then test scale-independence of FastICA and GMCA, and find that lower \textit{k}-scales can be modelled by a smaller number of independent components. For larger scales ($k \gtrsim 0.1~h \mathrm{cMpc}^{-1}$), more independent components are needed to fit the foregrounds. We conclude that, the current usage of GPR by the LOFAR collaboration is the appropriate removal technique. It is both robust and less prone to overfitting, with future improvements to GPR's fitting optimisation to yield deeper limits.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2020

Redshifted 21-cm Bispectrum I: Impact of the Redshift Space Distortions on the Signal from the Epoch of Reionization

The bispectrum can quantify the non-Gussianity present in the redshifted 21-cm signal produced by the neutral hydrogen (HI) during the epoch of reionization (EoR). Motivated by this, we perform a comprehensive study of the EoR 21-cm bispectrum using simulated signals. Given a model of reionization, we demonstrate the behaviour of the bispectrum for all unique triangles in $k$ space. For ease of identification of the unique triangles, we parametrize the $k$-triangle space with two parameters, namely the ratio of the two arms of the triangle ($n=k_2/k_1$) and the cosine of the angle between them ($\cosθ$). Furthermore, for the first time, we quantify the impact of the redshift space distortions (RSD) on the spherically averaged EoR 21-cm bispectrum in the entire unique triangle space. We find that the real space signal bispectra for small and intermediate $k_1$-triangles ($k_1 \leq 0.6 \,{\rm Mpc^{-1}}$) is negative in most of the unique triangle space. It takes a positive sign for squeezed, stretched and linear $k_1$-triangles, specifically for large $k_1$ values ($k_1 \geq 0.6 \,{\rm Mpc^{-1}}$). The RSD affects both the sign and magnitude of the bispectra significantly. It changes (increases/decreases) the magnitude of the bispectra by $50-100\%$ without changing its sign (mostly) during the entire period of the EoR for small and intermediate $k_1$-triangles. For larger $k_1$-triangles, RSD affects the magnitude by $100-200\%$ and also flips the sign from negative to positive. We conclude that it is important to take into account the impact of RSD for a correct interpretation of the EoR 21-cm bispectra.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2019

Studying the morphology of reionisation with the triangle correlation function of phases

We present a new statistical tool, called the triangle correlation function (TCF), inspired by the earlier work of Obreschkow et al. It is derived from the three-point correlation function and aims to probe the characteristic scale of ionized regions during the epoch of reionization from 21cm interferometric observations. Unlike most works, which focus on power spectrum, i.e. amplitude information, our statistic is based on the information we can extract from the phases of the Fourier transform of the ionization field. In this perspective, it may benefit from the well-known interferometric concept of closure phases. We find that this statistical estimator performs very well on simple ionization fields. For example, with well-defined fully ionized discs, there is a peaking scale, which we can relate to the radius of the ionized bubbles. We explore the robustness of the TCF when observational effects such as angular resolution and noise are considered. We also get interesting results on fields generated by more elaborate simulations such as 21CMFAST. Although the variety of sources and ionized morphologies in the early stages of the process make its interpretation more challenging, the nature of the signal can tell us about the stage of reionization. Finally, and in contrast to other bubble size distribution algorithms, we show that the TCF can resolve two different characteristic scales in a given map.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2018

The gravitational and lensing-ISW bispectrum of 21cm radiation

Cosmic Microwave Background experiments from COBE to Planck, have launched cosmology into an era of precision science, where many cosmological parameters are now determined to the percent level. Next generation telescopes, focussing on the cosmological 21cm signal from neutral hydrogen, will probe enormous volumes in the low-redshift Universe, and have the potential to determine dark energy properties and test modifications of Einstein's gravity. We study the 21cm bispectrum due to gravitational collapse as well as the contribution by line of sight perturbations in the form of the lensing-ISW bispectrum at low-redshifts ($z \sim 0.35-3$), targeted by upcoming neutral hydrogen intensity mapping experiments. We compute the expected bispectrum amplitudes and use a Fisher forecast model to compare power spectrum and bispectrum observations of intensity mapping surveys by CHIME, MeerKAT and SKA-mid. We find that combined power spectrum and bispectrum observations have the potential to decrease errors on the cosmological parameters by an order of magnitude compared to Planck. Finally, we compute the contribution of the lensing-ISW bispectrum, and find that, unlike for the cosmic microwave background analyses, it can safely be ignored for 21cm bispectrum observations.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2018

The 21cm bispectrum as a probe of non-Gaussianities due to X-ray heating

We present analysis of the normalised 21-cm bispectrum from fully-numerical simulations of intergalactic-medium heating by stellar sources and high-mass X-ray binaries (HMXB) during the cosmic dawn. Lyman-$α$ coupling is assumed to be saturated, we therefore probe the nature of non-Gaussianities produced by X-ray heating processes. We find the evolution of the normalised bispectrum to be very different from that of the power spectrum. It exhibits a turnover whose peak moves from large to small scales with decreasing redshift, and corresponds to the typical separation of emission regions. This characteristic scale reduces as more and more regions move into emission with time. Ultimately, small-scale fluctuations within heated regions come to dominate the normalised bispectrum, which at the end of the simulation is almost entirely driven by fluctuations in the density field. To establish how generic the qualitative evolution of the normalised bispectrum we see in the stellar + HMXB simulation is, we examine several other simulations - two fully-numerical simulations that include QSO sources, and two with contrasting source properties produced with the semi-numerical simulation 21cmFAST. We find the qualitative evolution of the normalised bispectrum during X-ray heating to be generic, unless the sources of X-rays are, as with QSOs, less numerous and so exhibit more distinct isolated heated profiles. Assuming mitigation of foreground and instrumental effects are ultimately effective, we find that we should be sensitive to the normalised bispectrum during the epoch of heating, so long as the spin temperature has not saturated by $z \approx 19$.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2018

Cosmology with Phase 1 of the Square Kilometre Array; Red Book 2018: Technical specifications and performance forecasts

We present a detailed overview of the cosmological surveys that will be carried out with Phase 1 of the Square Kilometre Array (SKA1), and the science that they will enable. We highlight three main surveys: a medium-deep continuum weak lensing and low-redshift spectroscopic HI galaxy survey over 5,000 sqdeg; a wide and deep continuum galaxy and HI intensity mapping survey over 20,000 sqdeg from z = 0.35 - 3; and a deep, high-redshift HI intensity mapping survey over 100 sqdeg from z = 3 - 6. Taken together, these surveys will achieve an array of important scientific goals: measuring the equation of state of dark energy out to z ~ 3 with percent-level precision measurements of the cosmic expansion rate; constraining possible deviations from General Relativity on cosmological scales by measuring the growth rate of structure through multiple independent methods; mapping the structure of the Universe on the largest accessible scales, thus constraining fundamental properties such as isotropy, homogeneity, and non-Gaussianity; and measuring the HI density and bias out to z = 6. These surveys will also provide highly complementary clustering and weak lensing measurements that have independent systematic uncertainties to those of optical surveys like LSST and Euclid, leading to a multitude of synergies that can improve constraints significantly beyond what optical or radio surveys can achieve on their own. This document, the 2018 Red Book, provides reference technical specifications, cosmological parameter forecasts, and an overview of relevant systematic effects for the three key surveys, and will be regularly updated by the Cosmology Science Working Group in the run up to start of operations and the Key Science Programme of SKA1.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2018

Quantifying the non-Gaussianity in the EoR 21-cm signal through bispectrum

The epoch of reionization (EoR) 21-cm signal is expected to be highly non-Gaussian in nature and this non-Gaussianity is also expected to evolve with the progressing state of reionization. Therefore the signal will be correlated between different Fourier modes ($k$). The power spectrum will not be able capture this correlation in the signal. We use a higher-order estimator -- the bispectrum -- to quantify this evolving non-Gaussianity. We study the bispectrum using an ensemble of simulated 21-cm signal and with a large variety of $k$ triangles. We observe two competing sources driving the non-Gaussianity in the signal: fluctuations in the neutral fraction ($x_{\rm HI}$) field and fluctuations in the matter density field. We find that the non-Gaussian contribution from these two sources vary, depending on the stage of reionization and on which $k$ modes are being studied. We show that the sign of the bispectrum works as a unique marker to identify which among these two components is driving the non-Gaussianity. We propose that the sign change in the bispectrum, when plotted as a function of triangle configuration $\cosθ$ and at a certain stage of the EoR can be used as a confirmative test for the detection of the 21-cm signal. We also propose a new consolidated way to visualize the signal evolution (with evolving $\overline{x}_{\rm HI}$ or redshift), through the trajectories of the signal in a power spectrum and equilateral bispectrum i.e. $P(k)-B(k, k, k)$ space.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2016

Eliminating the optical depth nuisance from the CMB with 21 cm cosmology

Amongst standard model parameters that are constrained by cosmic microwave background (CMB) observations, the optical depth $τ$ stands out as a nuisance parameter. While $τ$ provides some crude limits on reionization, it also degrades constraints on other cosmological parameters. Here we explore how 21 cm cosmology---as a direct probe of reionization---can be used to independently predict $τ$ in an effort to improve CMB parameter constraints. We develop two complementary schemes for doing so. The first uses 21 cm power spectrum observations in conjunction with semi-analytic simulations to predict $τ$. The other uses global 21 cm measurements to directly constrain low redshift (post-reheating) contributions to $τ$ in a relatively model-independent way. Forecasting the performance of the upcoming Hydrogen Epoch of Reionization Array, we find that significant reductions in the errors on $τ$ can be achieved. These results are particularly effective at breaking the CMB degeneracy between $τ$ and the amplitude of the primordial fluctuation spectrum $A_s$, with errors on $\ln (10^{10} A_s)$ reduced by up to a factor of four. Stage 4 CMB constraints on the neutrino mass sum are also improved, with errors potentially reduced to $12\,\textrm{meV}$ regardless of whether CMB experiments can precisely measure the reionization bump in polarization power spectra. Observations of the 21 cm line are therefore capable of improving not only our understanding of reionization astrophysics, but also of cosmology in general.

astro-ph.CO↗