arXiv subjects

Joop Schaye

Publications and source records attributed to Joop Schaye.

At least 289 records · Page 16Linked to original sources

arXiv2018

The origin of the red sequence galaxy population in the EAGLE simulation

We investigate the evolution in colour and morphology of the progenitors of red-sequence galaxies in the EAGLE cosmological hydrodynamical simulation. We quantify colours with $u^{*}-r^{*}$ intrinsic magnitudes and morphologies with a measure of the stellar kinematics. The time when galaxies moved onto the red sequence depends on their morphology. Disc-type galaxies tend to have become red during the last 3 Gyr, while elliptical-type galaxies joined the red sequence earlier, with half the sample already being red 5 Gyr ago. The time-scale, $τ_{\rm{Green}}$, of colour transition through the `green valley' depends weakly on the galaxy's morphological type. Elliptical-type galaxies cross the green valley slightly faster ($τ_{\rm{Green}}{\approx}1$ Gyr) than disc-type galaxies ($τ_{\rm{Green}}{\approx}$1.5 Gyr). While $τ_{\rm{Green}}$ is similar for central and satellite galaxies, for satellites $τ_{\rm{Green}}$ decreases with increasing stellar mass to host-halo mass ratio. Coupled with our finding that galaxies tend to become green after becoming satellites, this indicates that satellite-specific processes are important for quenching red-sequence galaxies. The last time central, elliptical-type red-sequence galaxies left the blue cloud is strongly correlated with the time the luminosity of the central black hole peaked, but this is not the case for discs. This suggests that AGN feedback is important for quenching ellipticals, particularly centrals, but not for discs. We find only a weak connection between transformations in colour and morphology.

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arXiv2018

The signal of decaying dark matter with hydrodynamical simulations

Dark matter particles may decay, emitting photons. Drawing on the EAGLE family of hydrodynamic simulations of galaxy formation -- including the APOSTLE and C-EAGLE simulations -- we assess the systematic uncertainties and scatter on the decay flux from different galaxy classes, from Milky Way satellites to galaxy clusters, and compare our results to studies of the 3.55~keV line. We demonstrate that previous detections and non-detections of this line are consistent with a dark matter interpretation. For example, in our simulations the width of the the dark matter decay line for Perseus-analogue galaxy clusters lies in the range 1300-1700~\kms. Therefore, the non-detection of the 3.55~keV line in the centre of the Perseus cluster by the {\it Hitomi} collaboration is consistent with detections by other instruments. We also consider trends with stellar and halo mass and evaluate the scatter in the expected fluxes arising from the anisotropic halo mass distribution and from object-to-object variations. We provide specific predictions for observations with {\it XMM-Newton} and with the planned X-ray telescopes {\it XRISM} and {\it ATHENA}. If future detections of unexplained X-ray lines match our predictions, including line widths, we will have strong evidence that we have discovered the dark matter.

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arXiv2018

The rapid growth phase of supermassive black holes

We investigate the rapid growth phase of supermassive black holes (BHs) within the hydrodynamical cosmological \eagle simulation. This non-linear phase of BH growth occurs within $\sim$$L_{*}$ galaxies, embedded between two regulatory states of the galaxy host: in sub $L_{*}$ galaxies efficient stellar feedback regulates the gas inflow onto the galaxy and significantly reduces the growth of the central BH, while in galaxies more massive than $L_{*}$ efficient AGN feedback regulates the gas inflow onto the galaxy and curbs further non-linear BH growth. We find evolving critical galaxy and halo mass scales at which rapid BH growth begins. Galaxies in the low-redshift Universe transition into the rapid BH growth phase in haloes that are approximately an order of magnitude more massive than their high-redshift counterparts (\M{200} $\approx 10^{12.4}$~\Msol at $z \approx 0$ decreasing to \M{200} $\approx 10^{11.2}$~\Msol at $z \approx 6$). Instead, BHs enter the rapid growth phase at a fixed critical halo virial temperature ($T_{\mathrm{vir}} \approx 10^{5.6}$~K). We additionally show that major galaxy--galaxy interactions ($μ\geq \frac{1}{4}$, where $μ$ is the stellar mass ratio) play a substantial role in triggering the rapid growth phase of BHs in the low-redshift Universe, whilst potentially having a lower influence at high redshift. Approximately 40\% of BHs that initiate the rapid BH growth phase at $z \approx 0$ do so within $\pm 0.5$ dynamical times of a major galaxy--galaxy merger, a fourfold increase above what is expected from the background merger rate. We find that minor mergers ($\frac{1}{10} \leq μ< \frac{1}{4}$) have a substantially lower influence in triggering the rapid growth phase at all epochs.

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arXiv2018

MUSE Spectroscopic Identifications of Ultra-Faint Emission Line Galaxies with M$_{\mathrm{UV}}\sim$ -15

Using an ultra-deep blind survey with the MUSE integral field spectrograph on the ESO Very Large Telescope, we obtain spectroscopic redshifts to a depth never explored before: galaxies with observed magnitudes m > 30 - 32. Specifically, we detect objects via Lyman-alpha emission at 2.9 < z < 6.7 without individual continuum counterparts in areas covered by the deepest optical/near-infrared imaging taken by the Hubble Space Telescope, the Hubble Ultra Deep Field. In total, we find 102 such objects in 9 square arcminutes at these redshifts. Detailed stacking analyses confirm the Lyman-alpha emission as well as the 1216 Angstrom-breaks and faint UV continua (M_UV ~ -15). This makes them the faintest spectroscopically-confirmed objects at these redshifts, similar to the sources believed to reionize the universe. A simple model for the expected fraction of detected/undetected Lyman-alpha emitters as a function of luminosity is consistent with these objects being the high-equivalent width tail of the normal Lyman-alpha-emitter population at these redshifts.

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arXiv2018

The MUSE Hubble Ultra Deep Field Survey XI. Constraining the low-mass end of the stellar mass - star formation rate relation at $z<1$

Star-forming galaxies have been found to follow a relatively tight relation between stellar mass ($M_{*}$) and star formation rate (SFR), dubbed the `star formation sequence'. A turnover in the sequence has been observed, where galaxies with $M_{*} < 10^{10} {\rm M}_{\odot}$ follow a steeper relation than their higher mass counterparts, suggesting that the low-mass slope is (nearly) linear. In this paper, we characterise the properties of the low-mass end of the star formation sequence between $7 \leq \log M_{*}[{\rm M}_{\odot}] \leq 10.5$ at redshift $0.11 < z < 0.91$. We use the deepest MUSE observations of the Hubble Ultra Deep Field and the Hubble Deep Field South to construct a sample of 179 star-forming galaxies with high signal-to-noise emission lines. Dust-corrected SFRs are determined from H$β$ $λ4861$ and H$α$ $λ6563$. We model the star formation sequence with a Gaussian distribution around a hyperplane between $\log M_{*}$, $\log {\rm SFR}$, and $\log (1+z)$, to simultaneously constrain the slope, redshift evolution, and intrinsic scatter. We find a sub-linear slope for the low-mass regime where $\log {\rm SFR}[{\rm M}_{\odot}/{\rm yr}] = 0.83^{+0.07}_{-0.06} \log M_{*}[{\rm M}_{\odot}] + 1.74^{+0.66}_{-0.68} \log (1+z)$, increasing with redshift. We recover an intrinsic scatter in the relation of $σ_{\rm intr} = 0.44^{+0.05}_{-0.04}$ dex, larger than typically found at higher masses. As both hydrodynamical simulations and (semi-)analytical models typically favour a steeper slope in the low-mass regime, our results provide new constraints on the feedback processes which operate preferentially in low-mass halos.

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arXiv2018

The Athena X-ray Integral Field Unit

The X-ray Integral Field Unit (X-IFU) is the high resolution X-ray spectrometer of the ESA Athena X-ray observatory. Over a field of view of 5' equivalent diameter, it will deliver X-ray spectra from 0.2 to 12 keV with a spectral resolution of 2.5 eV up to 7 keV on ~5 arcsecond pixels. The X-IFU is based on a large format array of super-conducting molybdenum-gold Transition Edge Sensors cooled at about 90 mK, each coupled with an absorber made of gold and bismuth with a pitch of 249 microns. A cryogenic anti-coincidence detector located underneath the prime TES array enables the non X-ray background to be reduced. A bath temperature of about 50 mK is obtained by a series of mechanical coolers combining 15K Pulse Tubes, 4K and 2K Joule-Thomson coolers which pre-cool a sub Kelvin cooler made of a 3He sorption cooler coupled with an Adiabatic Demagnetization Refrigerator. Frequency domain multiplexing enables to read out 40 pixels in one single channel. A photon interacting with an absorber leads to a current pulse, amplified by the readout electronics and whose shape is reconstructed on board to recover its energy with high accuracy. The defocusing capability offered by the Athena movable mirror assembly enables the X-IFU to observe the brightest X-ray sources of the sky (up to Crab-like intensities) by spreading the telescope point spread function over hundreds of pixels. Thus the X-IFU delivers low pile-up, high throughput (>50%), and typically 10 eV spectral resolution at 1 Crab intensities, i.e. a factor of 10 or more better than Silicon based X-ray detectors. In this paper, the current X-IFU baseline is presented, together with an assessment of its anticipated performance in terms of spectral resolution, background, and count rate capability. The X-IFU baseline configuration will be subject to a preliminary requirement review that is scheduled at the end of 2018.

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arXiv2018

Calibrated, cosmological hydrodynamical simulations with variable IMFs I: Method and effect on global galaxy scaling relations

The recently inferred variations in the stellar initial mass function (IMF) among local high-mass early-type galaxies may require a reinterpretation of observations of galaxy populations and may have important consequences for the predictions of models of galaxy formation and evolution. We present a new pair of cosmological, hydrodynamical simulations based on the EAGLE model that self-consistently adopt an IMF that respectively becomes bottom- or top-heavy in high-pressure environments for individual star-forming gas particles. In such models, the excess stellar mass-to-light ($M/L$) ratio with respect to a reference IMF is increased due to an overabundance of low-mass dwarf stars or stellar remnants, respectively. Crucially, both pressure-dependent IMFs have been calibrated to reproduce the observed trends of increasing excess $M/L$ with central stellar velocity dispersion ($σ_e$) in early-type galaxies, while maintaining agreement with the observables used to calibrate the EAGLE model, namely the galaxy luminosity function, half-light radii of late-type galaxies, and black hole masses. We find that while the $M/L$ excess is a good measure of the IMF for low-mass slope variations, it depends strongly on the age of the stellar population for high-mass slope variations. The normalization of the [Mg/Fe]$-σ_e$ relation is decreased (increased) for bottom- (top-)heavy IMF variations, while the slope is not strongly affected. Bottom-heavy variations have little impact on galaxy metallicities, half-light radii of early-type galaxies, or star formation rates, while top-heavy variations significantly increase these quantities for high-mass galaxies, leading to tension with observations.

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arXiv2018

First gas-phase metallicity gradients of $0.1 \lesssim z \lesssim 0.8$ galaxies with MUSE

Galaxies at low-redshift typically possess negative gas-phase metallicity gradients (centres more metal-rich than their outskirts). Whereas, it is not uncommon to observe positive metallicity gradients in higher-redshift galaxies ($z \gtrsim 0.6$). Bridging these epochs, we present gas-phase metallicity gradients of 84 star-forming galaxies between $0.08 < z < 0.84$. Using the galaxies with reliably determined metallicity gradients, we measure the median metallicity gradient to be negative ($-0.039^{+0.007}_{-0.009}$ dex/kpc). Underlying this, however, is significant scatter: $(8\pm3)\%\ [7]$ of galaxies have significantly positive metallicity gradients, $(38 \pm 5)\%\ [32]$ have significantly negative gradients, $(31\pm5)\%\ [26]$ have gradients consistent with being flat. (The remaining $(23\pm5)\%\ [19]$ have unreliable gradient estimates.) We notice a slight trend for a more negative metallicity gradient with both increasing stellar mass and increasing star formation rate (SFR). However, given the potential redshift and size selection effects, we do not consider these trends to be significant. Indeed, once we normalize the SFR relative to that of the main sequence, we do not observe any trend between the metallicity gradient and the normalized SFR. This is contrary to recent studies of galaxies at similar and higher redshifts. We do, however, identify a novel trend between the metallicity gradient of a galaxy and its size. Small galaxies ($r_d < 3$ kpc) present a large spread in observed metallicity gradients (both negative and positive gradients). In contrast, we find no large galaxies ($r_d > 3$ kpc) with positive metallicity gradients, and overall there is less scatter in the metallicity gradient amongst the large galaxies. These large (well-evolved) galaxies may be analogues of present-day galaxies, which also show a common negative metallicity gradient.

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arXiv2018

SEAGLE - I: A pipeline for simulating and modeling strong lenses from cosmological hydrodynamic simulations

In this paper we introduce the SEAGLE (i.e. Simulating EAGLE LEnses) program, that approaches the study of galaxy formation through strong gravitational lensing, using a suite of high-resolution hydrodynamic simulations, Evolution and Assembly of GaLaxies and their Environments (EAGLE) project. We introduce the simulation and analysis pipeline and present the first set of results from our analysis of early-type galaxies. We identify and extract an ensemble of simulated lens galaxies and use the GLAMER ray-tracing lensing code to create mock lenses similar to those observed in the SLACS and SL2S surveys, using a range of source parameters and galaxy orientations, including observational effects such as the Point-Spread-Function (PSF), pixelization and noise levels, representative of single-orbit observations with the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) using the ACS-F814W filter. We subsequently model these mock lenses using the code LENSED, treating them in the same way as observed lenses. We also estimate the mass model parameters directly from the projected surface mass density of the simulated galaxy, using an identical mass model family. We perform a three-way comparison of all the measured quantities with real lenses. We find the average total density slope of EAGLE lenses, $t=2.26\; (0.25\; \rm{rms})$ to be higher than SL2S, $t=2.16$ or SLACS, $t=2.08$. We find a very strong correlation between the external shear ($γ$) and the complex ellipticity ($ε$), with $γ\sim ε/4$. This correlation indicates a degeneracy in the lens mass modeling. We also see a dispersion between lens modeling and direct fitting results, indicating systematical biases.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2018

The oxygen abundance gradients in the gas discs of galaxies in the EAGLE simulation

We use the EAGLE simulations to study the oxygen abundance gradients of gas discs in galaxies within the stellar mass range [10^9.5, 10^10.8]Mo at z=0. The estimated median oxygen gradient is -0.011 (0.002) dex kpc^-1, which is shallower than observed. No clear trend between simulated disc oxygen gradient and galaxy stellar mass is found when all galaxies are considered. However, the oxygen gradient shows a clear correlation with gas disc size so that shallower abundance slopes are found for increasing gas disc sizes. Positive oxygen gradients are detected for ~40 per cent of the analysed gas discs, with a slight higher frequency in low mass galaxies. Galaxies that have quiet merger histories show a positive correlation between oxygen gradient and stellar mass, so that more massive galaxies tend to have shallower metallicity gradients. At high stellar mass, there is a larger fraction of rotational-dominated galaxies in low density regions. At low stellar mass, non-merger galaxies show a large variety of oxygen gradients and morphologies. The normalization of the disc oxygen gradients in non-merger galaxies by the effective radius removes the trend with stellar mass. Conversely, galaxies that experienced mergers show a weak relation between oxygen gradient and stellar mass. Additionally, the analysed EAGLE discs show no clear dependence of the oxygen gradients on local environment, in agreement with current observational findings.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2018

The COS-AGN survey: Revealing the nature of circum-galactic gas around hosts of active galactic nuclei

Active galactic nuclei (AGN) are thought to play a critical role in shaping galaxies, but their effect on the circumgalactic medium (CGM) is not well studied. We present results from the COS-AGN survey: 19 quasar sightlines that probe the CGM of 20 optically-selected AGN host galaxies with impact parameters $80 < ρ_{imp} < 300$ kpc. Absorption lines from a variety of species are measured and compared to a stellar mass and impact parameter matched sample of sightlines through non-AGN galaxies. Amongst the observed species in the COS-AGN sample (HI, CII, SiII, SiIII, CIV, SiIV, NV), only Ly$α$ shows a high covering fraction ($94^{+6}_{-23}$% for rest-frame equivalent widths EW $> 124$ mÅ) whilst many of the metal ions are not detected in individual sightlines. A sightline-by-sightline comparison between COS-AGN and the control sample yields no significant difference in EW distribution. However, stacked spectra of the COS-AGN and control samples show significant (> 3 sigma) enhancements in the EW of both Ly$α$ and SiIII at impact parameters $> 164$ kpc by a factor of $+0.45\pm0.05$ dex and $> +0.75$ dex respectively. The lack of detections of both high-ionization species near the AGN and strong kinematic offsets between the absorption systemic galaxy redshifts indicates that neither the AGN's ionization nor its outflows are the origin of these differences. Instead, we suggest the observed differences could result from either AGN hosts residing in haloes with intrinsically distinct gas properties, or that their CGM has been affected by a previous event, such as a starburst, which may also have fuelled the nuclear activity.

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arXiv2018

The star formation rate and stellar content contributions of morphological components in the EAGLE simulations

The Hubble sequence provides a useful classification of galaxy morphology at low redshift. However, morphologies are not static, but rather evolve as the growth of structure proceeds through mergers, accretion and secular processes. We investigate how kinematically defined disc and spheroidal structures form and evolve in the EAGLE hydrodynamic simulation of galaxy formation. At high redshift most galaxies of all masses are asymmetric. By redshift $z\simeq 1.5$ the Hubble sequence is established and after this time most of the stellar mass is in spheroids whose contribution to the stellar mass budget continues to rise to the present day. The stellar mass fraction in discs peaks at $z\simeq 0.5$ but overall remains subdominant at all times although discs contribute most of the stellar mass in systems of mass $M^*\sim 10^{10.5}{\rm M_\odot}$ at $z \leq 1.5$. Star formation occurs predominantly in disc structures throughout most of cosmic time but morphological transformations rearrange stars, thus establishing the low-redshift morphological mix. Morphological transformations are common and we quantify the rates at which they occur. The rate of growth of spheroids decreases at $z < 2$ while the rate of decay of discs remains roughly constant at $z < 1$. Finally, we find that the prograde component of galaxies becomes increasingly dynamically cold with time.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2018

Star-forming galaxies are predicted to lie on a fundamental plane of mass, star formation rate and α-enhancement

Observations show that star-forming galaxies reside on a tight three-dimensional plane between mass, gas-phase metallicity and star formation rate (SFR), which can be explained by the interplay between metal-poor gas inflows, SFR and outflows. However, different metals are released on different time-scales, which may affect the slope of this relation. Here, we use central, star-forming galaxies with M$_{\rm star}=10^{9.0-10.5}$ M$_{\odot}$ from the EAGLE hydrodynamical simulation to examine three-dimensional relations between mass, SFR and chemical enrichment using absolute and relative C, N, O and Fe abundances. We show that the scatter is smaller when gas-phase $α$-enhancement is used rather than metallicity. A similar plane also exists for stellar $α$-enhancement, implying that present-day specific SFRs are correlated with long time-scale star formation histories. Between $z=0$ and 1, the $α$-enhancement plane is even more insensitive to redshift than the plane using metallicity. However, it evolves at $z>1$ due to lagging iron yields. At fixed mass, galaxies with higher SFRs have star formation histories shifted toward late times, are more $α$-enhanced and this $α$-enhancement increases with redshift as observed. These findings suggest that relations between physical properties inferred from observations may be affected by systematic variations in $α$-enhancements.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2018

Evolution of the stellar metallicities of galaxies in the EAGLE simulations

We study the correlation between stellar mass and stellar metallicity in the Evolution and Assembly of GaLaxies and their Environments (EAGLE) suite of cosmological hydrodynamical simulations. At a given stellar mass, simulated galaxies with lower stellar metallicities show, on average, higher gas fractions, higher specific star formation rates and younger stellar populations. Active galactic nuclei feedback seems to play an important role on the determination of the stellar metallicity at high stellar masses. In general, simulated systems follow a well-defined anticorrelation between stellar metallicity and gas fraction, which does not evolve significantly with redshift. All these trends are consistent with previous findings regarding the metallicity of the star-forming gas in EAGLE.

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arXiv2018

The impact of dark energy on galaxy formation. What does the future of our Universe hold?

We investigate the effect of the accelerated expansion of the Universe due to a cosmological constant, $Λ$, on the cosmic star formation rate. We utilise hydrodynamical simulations from the EAGLE suite, comparing a $Λ$CDM Universe to an Einstein-de Sitter model with $Λ=0$. Despite the differences in the rate of growth of structure, we find that dark energy, at its observed value, has negligible impact on star formation in the Universe. We study these effects beyond the present day by allowing the simulations to run forward into the future ($t>13.8$ Gyr). We show that the impact of $Λ$ becomes significant only when the Universe has already produced most of its stellar mass, only decreasing the total co-moving density of stars ever formed by ${\approx}15\%$. We develop a simple analytic model for the cosmic star formation rate that captures the suppression due to a cosmological constant. The main reason for the similarity between the models is that feedback from accreting black holes dramatically reduces the cosmic star formation at late times. Interestingly, simulations without feedback from accreting black holes predict an upturn in the cosmic star formation rate for $t>15$ Gyr due to the rejuvenation of massive ($ > 10^{11} \mathrm{M}_{\odot}$) galaxies. We briefly discuss the implication of the weak dependence of the cosmic star formation on $Λ$ in the context of the anthropic principle.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2018

The three phases of galaxy formation

We investigate the origin of the Hubble sequence by analysing the evolution of the kinematic morphologies of central galaxies in the EAGLE cosmological simulation. By separating each galaxy into disk and spheroidal stellar components and tracing their evolution along the merger tree, we find that the morphology of galaxies follows a common evolutionary trend. We distinguish three phases of galaxy formation. These phases are determined primarily by mass, rather than redshift. For M_star < 10^{9.5} M_sun galaxies grow in a disorganised way, resulting in a morphology that is dominated by random stellar motions. This phase is dominated by in-situ star formation, partly triggered by mergers. In the mass range 10^{9.5} M_sun < M_star < 10^{10.5} M_sun galaxies evolve towards a disk-dominated morphology, driven by in-situ star formation. The central spheroid (i.e. the bulge) at z = 0 consists mostly of stars that formed in-situ, yet the formation of the bulge is to a large degree associated with mergers. Finally, at M_star > 10^{10.5} M_sun growth through in-situ star formation slows down considerably and galaxies transform towards a more spheroidal morphology. This transformation is driven more by the buildup of spheroids than by the destruction of disks. Spheroid formation in these galaxies happens mostly by accretion at large radii of stars formed ex-situ (i.e. the halo rather than the bulge).

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arXiv2018

Flickering AGN can explain the strong circumgalactic O VI observed by COS-Halos

Proximity zone fossils (PZFs) are ionization signatures around recently active galactic nuclei (AGN) where metal species in the circumgalactic medium remain over-ionized after the AGN has shut-off due to their long recombination timescales. We explore cosmological zoom hydrodynamic simulations using the EAGLE model paired with a non-equilibrium ionization and cooling module including time-variable AGN radiation to model PZFs around star-forming, disk galaxies in the z~0.2 Universe. Previous simulations typically under-estimated the O VI content of galactic haloes, but we show that plausible PZF models increase O VI column densities by 2-3x to achieve the levels observed around COS-Halos star-forming galaxies out to 150 kpc. Models with AGN bolometric luminosities >~10^43.6 erg s^-1, duty cycle fractions <~10%, and AGN lifetimes <~10^6 yr are the most promising, because their super-massive black holes grow at the cosmologically expected rate and they mostly appear as inactive AGN, consistent with COS-Halos. The central requirement is that the typical star-forming galaxy hosted an active AGN within a timescale comparable to the recombination time of a high metal ion, which for circumgalactic O VI is 10^7 years. H I, by contrast, returns to equilibrium much more rapidly due to its low neutral fraction and does not show a significant PZF effect. O VI absorption features originating from PZFs appear narrow, indicating photo-ionization, and are often well-aligned with lower metal ion species. PZFs are highly likely to affect the physical interpretation of circumgalactic high ionization metal lines if, as expected, normal galaxies host flickering AGN.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2018

Galaxy Formation Efficiency and the Multiverse Explanation of the Cosmological Constant with EAGLE Simulations

Models of the very early universe, including inflationary models, are argued to produce varying universe domains with different values of fundamental constants and cosmic parameters. Using the cosmological hydrodynamical simulation code from the eagle collaboration, we investigate the effect of the cosmological constant on the formation of galaxies and stars. We simulate universes with values of the cosmological constant ranging from Lambda = 0 to Lambda_0 = 300, where Lambda_0 is the value of the cosmological constant in our Universe. Because the global star formation rate in our Universe peaks at t = 3.5 Gyr, before the onset of accelerating expansion, increases in Lambda of even an order of magnitude have only a small effect on the star formation history and efficiency of the universe. We use our simulations to predict the observed value of the cosmological constant, given a measure of the multiverse. Whether the cosmological constant is successfully predicted depends crucially on the measure. The impact of the cosmological constant on the formation of structure in the universe does not seem to be a sharp enough function of Lambda to explain its observed value alone.

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