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Jordan W. Smoller

Publications and source records attributed to Jordan W. Smoller.

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EviDAG: Auditable Causal DAG Authoring with Biomedical Literature

Constructing causal directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) is a core step in biomedical causal analysis, yet it remains a largely manual process. Analysts must connect study variables to prior literature, evaluate uncertain causal claims, and preserve sufficient provenance for expert review. We present EviDAG, a browser-based system for authoring causal DAGs as auditable, evidence-linked artifacts from biomedical literature. Given free-text descriptions of study concepts, EviDAG creates a reproducible literature snapshot, uses an LLM-based reasoning module to generate structured pairwise causal judgments, links literature-supported judgments to verbatim evidence excerpts, and assembles the judgments into a constraint-checked graph. Each proposed edge includes confidence estimates, provenance, and a reviewable rationale. The interface supports study specification, progress monitoring, evidence review, graph comparison, adjustment-set computation, and export. In evaluations against both compact benchmark DAGs and reference DAGs derived from published literature, EviDAG achieves high edge recall on the literature-based cohort while retaining verifiable evidence trails absent from LLM-only baselines. EviDAG thus reduces the burden of causal DAG curation while making the resulting assumptions auditable, supporting the design, analysis, and interpretation of biomedical studies.

cs.AI

Construction of extra-large scale screening tools for risks of severe mental illnesses using real world healthcare data

Importance: The prevalence of severe mental illnesses (SMIs) in the United States is approximately 3% of the whole population. The ability to conduct risk screening of SMIs at large scale could inform early prevention and treatment. Objective: A scalable machine learning based tool was developed to conduct population-level risk screening for SMIs, including schizophrenia, schizoaffective disorders, psychosis, and bipolar disorders,using 1) healthcare insurance claims and 2) electronic health records (EHRs). Design, setting and participants: Data from beneficiaries from a nationwide commercial healthcare insurer with 77.4 million members and data from patients from EHRs from eight academic hospitals based in the U.S. were used. First, the predictive models were constructed and tested using data in case-control cohorts from insurance claims or EHR data. Second, performance of the predictive models across data sources were analyzed. Third, as an illustrative application, the models were further trained to predict risks of SMIs among 18-year old young adults and individuals with substance associated conditions. Main outcomes and measures: Machine learning-based predictive models for SMIs in the general population were built based on insurance claims and EHR.

cs.AI